Joe B's mock for the entire offseason

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Couple good signings on here but for the most part meh

[Sierra Foothills]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

Serious question, why did Moore’s catches drop about 50% last year in the same number of games?

 

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

They REALLY spread it around under Ben Johnson last year -- definitely an "everybody eats" philosophy with fairly heavy involvement by the TEs (similar to the Bills, actually). No one had 60 catches, actually. Also, it's worth noting that in the biggest games -- the playoffs -- Moore had 11 catches and 2 TDs in two games, leading the team in the latter and one behind Colston Loveland, who had 12 catches, in the former. 

 

 

Like Dave said, it was the first year under Head Coach and offensive wiz kid Ben Johnson and because the Bears had heavily invested in offensive skill players, taking both TE Colston Loveland (10th overall) and WR Luther Burden III (2nd round) last year, WR Rome Odunze 9th overall in 2024, and TE Cole Kmet in the 2nd round in 2020, it made sense for him to spread the ball around to assimilate his young talent. The youth movement was further exemplified by the Bears allowing Keenan Allen to walk after the 2024 season and he had 81 receptions in his return to the Chargers last year.

 

Moore was still 2nd in receptions and 2nd in targets but the Bears had 7 players with at least 30 receptions, one of only 5 teams to do so. By comparison the Bills had 5 players with 30 or more receptions and Josh is known to spread the ball around effectively.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Couple good signings on here but for the most part meh

agree it’s not enough.

 

The world is not enough

[Richard Noggin]

Setting aside perceived roster "needs," one MUST acknowledge the generational concentration of SPEED available in this draft at almost every position, but especially at WR (and EDGE and LB and S (and TE and RB even though we don't perceive "need" there)). It would be CRIMINAL for Beane to not draft at least one burner at WR when there is so much depth there. Gotta get a 4.4 (or faster) guy this year just because, even if it's on day two or three. Or even if it's a smaller/shorter prospect not traditionally considered for boundary duty. 

 

Let the draft board tell you what to do. In 2026, it says to select speed at WR and EDGE, even if slightly undersized. And probably a dynamic S and a valuable OT>IOL convert. Bunch of long/300+lb DTs could be around on day two. And maybe a surprise TE and/or RB on day three if it falls that way. 

 

Also, while Joe's rd 1 pick, Howell, seems capable of outperforming his extreme arm length limitations as a pure pass rusher, I also like Malachi Lawrence's length and explosion and flex to rush AND drop, or Zion Young's insane ceiling. The Bills need a few new 2nd level tweeners with length and mass and flex: Joe B's projected FA addition of Chenal is one such slam dunk imho (including his prior Wisconsin connection to Leonhard). 

[Richard Noggin]

10 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Sign Evans, Hendrickson, and trade up to pick 6 for next years first.  Then take whoever is left from Bailey, Reese, Styles, Downs, or Tate.  That’s 3 potential pro bowlers and you keep the rest of your picks  this year.  

 

1. Do you ACTUALLY think this is in the realm of possibility? The two biggest FA prospects at the two highest paid positions (beyond QB) both come to Buffalo, a team perpetually tight to the cap?

 

2. Would you WANT the Bills to tie up the big-time $$ and term it would take to land 31+ yr olds at WR and EDGE AND to give up the draft assets it would take to move up to #6 (by the way, it would take a LOT more than 2026 pick #26 and a 2027 1st rounder to get to the 6th overall pick...at least an additional 2nd or 3rd this year and/or next year). If future picks are downgraded by roughly one round (traditionally accepted exchange rate), your proposal carries a deficit of a 2026 mid-2nd and/or multiple 3rds. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=BUF

 

If the Bills sink multiple day 1 and day 2 picks into a single player in the 2026 draft, I'd consider that shortsighted especially for cap management. Difference makers matter, but so does fielding a roster with depth and injury resilience. Combining that with big cap expenditures to lure an aging Evans away from his home in Tampa, and Hendrickson, the aging cheapshot artist, away from some terrible team with mucho cap space, you're headed for BIG cap/roster trouble in 2-3 years.

 

**I guess keeping Hendrickson from NE or KC or BAL would be cool, but still questionable. 

[Ayjent]

Man Joe that is why you are a writer and not with an organization.  That is a turd sandwich of an offseason that makes the team worse not better.  I don't like what he proposes in FA nor the draft.  None of those guys translate to wins, and the personnel they lose on the OL alone could make for a shakier offense.  Limited picks and you take a Punter - sweet!!

Edited March 3 by Ayjent

[Dillenger4]

21 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I hate the idea of waiting till the deadline to address WR. Beane needs to break that habit. We should not be making overly optimistic bets on the WR room with the proviso that we can make a late add to fix it. Further, you might find youself locked out or played by a team like Miami, which likely happened last year.

 

 

Yes I agree - but keep in mind, Beane WILL add a WR like Doubs, DJ Moore and a draft pick selection. he won't add a "banger" WR in FA this year. He will wait until the trade deadline to do so if required. That's the way I see it. Who knows... only the Beaner knows.

[T.E.]

15 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

??? - major draft capital and money was traded for DJ Moore in this scenario. Look up Moore’s production and also the Bills cap situation relative to other teams (before, for instance, concocting fantasy trades of Justin Jefferson to the Bills).

That doesn't make it any better. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

On 3/2/2026 at 12:01 PM, dave mcbride said:

Joe B's offseason plan: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7075936/2026/03/02/buffalo-bills-mock-offseason/.

 

Highlights (minus the salary cap machinations, which all seem reasonable, to get here):

 

pay cuts:

Dawson Knox and Taron Johnson

 

restructures before FA:

Allen, Rousseau, Oliver, Hoecht

 

Cuts:

Curtis Samuel and Taylor Rapp

 

Internal free agents to sign:

he provides the full list, but the only player he has the Bills re-signing is Trubisky

 

 

External offseason additions, pre-draft:

trade a 3rd (91st pick) and a 6th for DJ Moore

Sign LB Leo Chenal

Sign LG Dalton Risner

Sign S Reed Blankenship

Sign NT Khyiris Tonga

Sign CB Chidobe Awuzie

 

Draft:

1st - Cashius Howell, Edge/OLB, Texas A&M

2nd - D'Angelo Ponds, Nickel, Indiana

4th - Keyshaun Elliott, ILB, Arizona State

5th - Pat Coogan, IOL, Indiana

7th - Andre Fuller, DB, Toledo

7th - Brett Thorson, P, Georgia

 

Post-draft signings:

DL Levi Onwuzurike

S PJ Locke

WR Kalif Raymond

 

Mid-August contract extension: 

O'Cyrus Torrence

It looks like Joe B might know what he's talking about...

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

It looks like Joe B might know what he's talking about...

I immediately thought the same! He called it.

[nosejob]

Do they even talk football on WGR anymore? To me the only thing worse than nonstop hockey is soccer. Yep I went there. WGR pulled the plug. It would take a court order to force me to listen to Marty and the hosts spit out players names who day is tinking uff.   Sheesh

Edited March 5 by nosejob

[SCBills]

As soon as I heard Joe B mention DJ Moore on his podcast, I knew this was a distinct possibility. 

[MAJBobby]

Well he seems he got the value just about right for Moore 

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Well he seems he got the value just about right for Moore 

 

I wish he got it right.

 

His trade projection: 3rd + '27 6th = 50ish draft value points

 

The reality: 2nd - Chi 5th = 78 draft value points

 

The difference is roughly a 4th rounder in 2026. With the money involved, would have loved to see a slightly lower draft cost. 

 

*according to Rich Hill '26 chart and assumption that future year picks are downgraded by one round in value

[MAJBobby]

So right about right. A round off. 3rd

round value (actual) 4th round value (projected). 

[BuffaloRebound]

I think we’ll be in on one of the top free agent pass rushers.  Phillips or Oweh.  

[Kelly No huddle]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think we’ll be in on one of the top free agent pass rushers.  Phillips or Oweh.  

 

I'm not against signing jalean Phillips and he should be 100%

 

But I'm not guaranteeing more than 2 yrs 

 

 

But fully healthy and he's a legitimate pass rusher 

Edited March 6 by Kelly to Allen

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I wish he got it right.

 

His trade projection: 3rd + '27 6th = 50ish draft value points

 

The reality: 2nd - Chi 5th = 78 draft value points

 

The difference is roughly a 4th rounder in 2026. With the money involved, would have loved to see a slightly lower draft cost. 

 

*according to Rich Hill '26 chart and assumption that future year picks are downgraded by one round in value

 

But who freakin cares??? We make up prices we'd be happy with in our heads. Even the expert national pundits do, but Joe B was pretty darn close.

 

I just keep looking back at the Diggs trade where we gave a 1st, 5th, 6th and the following year's 4th in exchange for Diggs, a documented malcontent.

 

We got DJ Moore and a 5th for a 2nd. And his career outside Buffalo has been better than Diggs outside Buffalo.

 

Dude is only 2 years older than when we acquired Diggs and doesn't miss games.

 

Good trade. And I say that while acknowledging that he wasn't remotely close to my #1 choice, but I'm sure Beane turned over several stones and this was the best value.

 

People would have been freaking out over something like Olave for this year's 1st and 3rd. Who knows if that's what it would have cost but now I'm guessing at least that... probably more. Plus the injury concerns.

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But who freakin cares??? We make up prices we'd be happy with in our heads. Even the expert national pundits do, but Joe B was pretty darn close.

 

I just keep looking back at the Diggs trade where we gave a 1st, 5th, 6th and the following year's 4th in exchange for Diggs, a documented malcontent.

 

We got DJ Moore and a 5th for a 2nd. And his career outside Buffalo has been better than Diggs outside Buffalo.

 

Dude is only 2 years older than when we acquired Diggs and doesn't miss games.

 

Good trade. And I say that while acknowledging that he wasn't remotely close to my #1 choice, but I'm sure Beane turned over several stones and this was the best value.

 

People would have been freaking out over something like Olave for this year's 1st and 3rd. Who knows if that's what it would have cost but now I'm guessing at least that... probably more. Plus the injury concerns.

 

Once real football starts up again, I hope DJ Moore has a career renaissance in Buffalo and helps the team reach new heights. 

 

But for now, we're left debating the philosophical/strategic merits of:

 

1) bundling BOTH significant draft AND cap resources on a single, aggressive but pedigreed vet WR acquisition to fill "immediate need"

 

                                                                                            - versus -

 

2) consistently maximizing objective ROI on all available draft (especially draft), roster, and cap asset expenditures to preempt future needs

 

Big, targeted swings are cool, and can work, but in my opinion, it's more about minimizing vet contract overpays and maximizing rookie deal production. Gotta cleanse the cap/roster of its mediocre veteran bloat. A deal like DJ Moore's means we MUST now rely more heavily on scouting and coaching to get more out of younger, cheaper players.