Mahomes restructures, opens up massive cap space for kc

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

As long as teams do smart structuring of contracts and stagger enough of them so the big ones don't all hit in the same year, as long as the cap continues to increase the way it has been, that bill will never really come due.

 

I know people say "you can't keep doing that", but that's only true if the cap starts to become stagnant.  Otherwise, yes you CAN keep doing that and teams WILL keep doing it because there is no real penalty for it.

 

You can, you just have to be thoughtful about when you expect to replace a player and when you want to eat money.  

 

With someone like mahomes or allen, you have the option to just keep tacking on years to their deal.  Eventually they'll retire... and you will be screwed.  But thats ok, because i got to watch josh allen sling the rock for 20 years.  

[Kirby Jackson]

58 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

As long as teams do smart structuring of contracts and stagger enough of them so the big ones don't all hit in the same year, as long as the cap continues to increase the way it has been, that bill will never really come due.

 

I know people say "you can't keep doing that", but that's only true if the cap starts to become stagnant.  Otherwise, yes you CAN keep doing that and teams WILL keep doing it because there is no real penalty for it.

There are a couple of sceanrios that CAN be problematic:

 

- Paying a guy to play a bigger role and being wrong, results in bad contracts. Samuel and Palmer are examples of this but still not a ton of money. This is my fear with Alec Pierce.

- Restructuring a big deal and the guy gets hurt or falls off a cliff. Tyreek Hill is kind of an example of this although he was never going to have a $51.1M cap hit. Dawkins could run into this if they restructure and he takes a big step back.

- Just being “wrong” on a player can be troublesome too (at least short term). Bernard is here 2 more years. He’s not worth the deal but not a complete waste. If he was worse, you’d be stuck paying a reserve good starter money. 
 

Most of these aren’t crippling but can be problematic especially if you have a few of them. Otherwise, the cap is just fear mongering. 

Edited February 18 by Kirby Jackson

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There are a couple of sceanrios that CAN be problematic:

 

- Paying a guy to play a bigger role and being wrong, results in bad contracts. Samuel and Palmer are examples of this but still not a ton of money. This is my fear with Alex Pierce.

- Restructuring a big deal and the guy gets hurt or falls off a cliff. Tyreek Hill is kind of an example of this although he was never going to have a $51.1M cap hit. Dawkins could run into this if they restructure and he takes a big step back.

- Just being “wrong” on a player can be troublesome too (at least short term). Bernard is here 2 more years. He’s not worth the deal but not a complete waste. If he was worse, you’d be stuck paying a reserve good starter money. 
 

Most of these aren’t crippling but can be problematic especially if you have a few of them. Otherwise, the cap is just fear mongering. 

Then there’s the fourth category: being tragically wrong about a QB, for example Deshaun Watson, Tua, Russ Wilson, Cousins….  Then you are truly f-d.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Then there’s the fourth category: being tragically wrong about a QB, for example Deshaun Watson, Tua, Russ Wilson, Cousins….  Then you are truly f-d.

100% and shame on me for not highlighting that. That’s the one that sets you back. The rest are inconveniences but being wrong a QB is franchise-altering.

[SCBills]

14 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

The bill is due and we are going to release a few solid players for the priveleadge of kicking the can down the road

Who?

 

Rapp and Samuel?

 

Hardly solid. 
 

I’ll agree with you if Knox goes elsewhere instead of redoing his deal.  
 

Otherwise we have two FA’s of note (McGovern and Edwards) and outside WR, our needs on Defense aren’t exactly bank-breakers… LB, NT, S can be done relatively affordable and we can sign a different type of speed rusher that isn’t your typical huge contract type of guy when we ran a 4-3. 
 

If they believe Oliver is a good fit, we can restructure Allen, Brown, Dawkins and Oliver and have a boatload of money. 
 

We could certainly be in better shape but not every team has their QB, LT, RT, RB1, CB1, CB2 and S locked up long term. 
 

The dooming is a bit much whenever we see “Team so and so does so and so”

[Allen2Moulds]

28 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There are a couple of sceanrios that CAN be problematic:

 

- Paying a guy to play a bigger role and being wrong, results in bad contracts. Samuel and Palmer are examples of this but still not a ton of money. This is my fear with Alex Pierce.

- Restructuring a big deal and the guy gets hurt or falls off a cliff. Tyreek Hill is kind of an example of this although he was never going to have a $51.1M cap hit. Dawkins could run into this if they restructure and he takes a big step back.

- Just being “wrong” on a player can be troublesome too (at least short term). Bernard is here 2 more years. He’s not worth the deal but not a complete waste. If he was worse, you’d be stuck paying a reserve good starter money. 
 

Most of these aren’t crippling but can be problematic especially if you have a few of them. Otherwise, the cap is just fear mongering. 

I understand your concern with Pierce, but I guess that also depends on what his next contract is.  Let's say it's a 5-year deal at 28 AAV (Tee Higgins range).  I'm guessing that the first 2 years are fully guaranteed, and if we were to move on after 2 years, we would have decent dead cap hit after that.  If we get at least 3 years out of him, we would likely be in the clear.  

Now let's talk about the player.

He's a 25-year-old WR, who has an elite ability to take the top of the defense and appears to still be ascending.  He reminds me a lot of Jordy Nelson and is actually off to a better start to his career, despite inferior QB play.  Also, would not cost you any draft capital, that would allow you to go all in on defense, except for maybe an interior OL, if the value is right.   

Given the start to his career, unless he turns into a pumpkin overnight, I see no reason as to why it would be a bad contract.  Young ascending player, with an elite trait. 

He torched that same Houston defense they gave us hell.  I believe he had 4 for 132yds, (2) TD's, PI calls, in about 3 quarters of play. 

 

In my opinion, he would be the perfect fit, if the Colts allow him to hit the open market. I guess the real question is, how much are teams willing to pay him?

[Big Turk]

41 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There are a couple of sceanrios that CAN be problematic:

 

- Paying a guy to play a bigger role and being wrong, results in bad contracts. Samuel and Palmer are examples of this but still not a ton of money. This is my fear with Alex Pierce.

- Restructuring a big deal and the guy gets hurt or falls off a cliff. Tyreek Hill is kind of an example of this although he was never going to have a $51.1M cap hit. Dawkins could run into this if they restructure and he takes a big step back.

- Just being “wrong” on a player can be troublesome too (at least short term). Bernard is here 2 more years. He’s not worth the deal but not a complete waste. If he was worse, you’d be stuck paying a reserve good starter money. 
 

Most of these aren’t crippling but can be problematic especially if you have a few of them. Otherwise, the cap is just fear mongering. 

 

 

So here is something that typically doesn't happen, but would be interested in knowing how a scenario like this would be handled...

 

What happens if a big star gets in a car crash and dies? God forbid that ever were to happen, but how would that affect the cap?

 

Would everything immediately come due or are there some stipulations where a team can choose to spread it out over a number of years and it's considered a special situation?

Edited February 18 by Big Turk

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I understand your concern with Pierce, but I guess that also depends on what his next contract is.  Let's say it's a 5-year deal at 28 AAV (Tee Higgins range).  I'm guessing that the first 2 years are fully guaranteed, and if we were to move on after 2 years, we would have decent dead cap hit after that.  If we get at least 3 years out of him, we would likely be in the clear.  

Now let's talk about the player.

He's a 25-year-old WR, who has an elite ability to take the top of the defense and appears to still be ascending.  He reminds me a lot of Jordy Nelson and is actually off to a better start to his career, despite inferior QB play.  Also, would not cost you any draft capital, that would allow you to go all in on defense, except for maybe an interior OL, if the value is right.   

Given the start to his career, unless he turns into a pumpkin overnight, I see no reason as to why it would be a bad contract.  Young ascending player, with an elite trait. 

He torched that same Houston defense they gave us hell.  I believe he had 4 for 132yds, (2) TD's, PI calls, in about 3 quarters of play. 

 

In my opinion, he would be the perfect fit, if the Colts allow him to hit the open market. I guess the real question is, how much are teams willing to pay him?

I like Pierce a lot as a player. I think he’s a great fit. I’m guessing that he gets like $22M AAV but your structure is possible. He’s a much better player than anyone that the Bills have. My fear with him is that you pay that, he moves to the top of the depth chart and is largely the same player but with more focus from the defense. I don’t expect him to come here and be Samuel or Keon or Palmer. He’s better. I just don’t want to pay a number 2 number 1 money after paying 4’s to be 2’s. If he’s $15M AAV sign me up!! I guess though I’d rather give $14M to Pittman than $22M to Pierce. If I’m paying that I want more of a track record. 

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

So here is something that typically doesn't happen, but would be interested in knowing how a scenario like this would be handled...

 

What happens if a big star gets in a car crash and dies? God forbid that ever were to happen, but how would that affect the cap?

 

Would everything immediately come due or are there some stipulations where a team can choose to spread it out over a number of years and it's considered a special situation?

As I understand it, all future bonuses would be due. It would be treated as if they were released. 

[Allen2Moulds]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I like Pierce a lot as a player. I think he’s a great fit. I’m guessing that he gets like $22M AAV but your structure is possible. He’s a much better player than anyone that the Bills have. My fear with him is that you pay that, he moves to the top of the depth chart and is largely the same player but with more focus from the defense. I don’t expect him to come here and be Samuel or Keon or Palmer. He’s better. I just don’t want to pay a number 2 number 1 money after paying 4’s to be 2’s. If he’s $15M AAV sign me up!! I guess though I’d rather give $14M to Pittman than $22M to Pierce. If I’m paying that I want more of a track record. 

That's fair, I guess I just have a bit of a different view in the sense of what type of WR is needed.  I'd prefer a big WR with elite deep speed, over someone that Allen feels like he needs to force feeds targets too.  If we don't use a draft pick on a WR, that also leaves the door open to add a another WR in the draft, somewhere between round 3-5. 

In a perfect world, we land a #1 WR that can threaten all levels of the filed equally.  Waddle is the first player that comes to mind with this honestly.

Landing that type of player, would likely cost a ton of draft capital.  I wouldn't mind Pittman if he becomes a cap casualty at the expense of Pierce, but I believe Pierce will not only be just as effective here, but might actually improve, because of his ascension and Allen.

A lot of the same elements that he has in Indy, he'll have here.  An elite running game, and good short to intermediate weapons, plus the fear of Allens legs.  

 

One of my biggest beef's with Beane, is not having that elite field stretcher with size, to fully maximize Allen's arm. 

I know people will say that Allen isn't the best deep ball thrower, and I won't argue with that, but he connects when it matters most.  Primetime moments, and the playoffs. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Only $11m over now... still more than Buffalo 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Only $11m over now... still more than Buffalo 

Just timing though, they will pull the levers whenever they want. They have plenty of space to do whatever they want.

[HappyDays]

Ownership and spending is the one advantage we have over KC. They don't give their GM blank checks to write hefty signing bonuses to create cap space the way that Pegula does. This is why over the years they've traded players like Tyreek Hill and L'Jarius Sneed, they weren't willing to restructure contracts to create the necessary space. Mahomes was always going to be restructured but I'll be surprised if they maximize their available restructures like we expect Beane to. IMO with Mahomes recovering from his ACL they're more likely to use this year as a cap reset than they are to go all in.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Mahomes injury will limit them immensely in 26. I don't expect them to be more than a .500 team. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:

Meanwhile we are just giving ourselves titty-twisters over the graffiti found in the new stadium

Yeah, not sure why they didn’t just paint over it and move on.  Does not seem like something that should shut down a construction site.  
 

Regarding the Mahomes restructure, I am guessing they will re-sign Tyreek Hill at some point.  I wonder how long it will take for him to get back up to speed, or if he ever will.  

[atlbillsfan1975]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

 

I would answer you better, but @Kirby Jacksonalready did that up thread. His answer is spot on...with a link to investigate for yourself. 

That article made me realize the Chiefs made a few bad signings. They might be able to free up some cap this year but it’s slowly catching up with them. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

That article made me realize the Chiefs made a few bad signings. They might be able to free up some cap this year but it’s slowly catching up with them. 

And when it catches them the TV deals will be in place and the cap will BOOM. Barring another weird thing like another pandemic, the cap will always rise...and it will rise in record shattering numbers over then next few years. They will be just fine. 

[TheFunPolice]

No worries!

 

I read that they were over and done with, Mahomes wasn't any good anymore, and the league had caught up to Reid's schemes!

 

They should finish 3rd in that division now on an on-going basis. 

 

Of course I am being snarky but IF you truly believe that then it would be odd to think we will just win forever "because Allen" 

 

"Because Mahomes" played in 5 Super Bowls but he's done and over with now and no longer a threat in the AFC, but "Because Allen" means we have an 11-12 win floor in perpetuity. It's just odd thinking. 

 

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

That article made me realize the Chiefs made a few bad signings. They might be able to free up some cap this year but it’s slowly catching up with them. 

 

Bad signings and bad draft picks. It isn't easy to remain at the top. Drafting near the end of each round every year is going to catch up with you eventually. Their pass rush is middling, their safeties are middling. Their offense had bad OTs, bad RBs, and middling WRs, and Mahomes himself has taken a step back. They were held together by elite coaching last year. The roster has real issues that they aren't likely to fix in a single offseason. A top 10 draft pick will help but the top of this class is weak.

[H2o]

Goodell, in a show of appreciation for the Chiefs' cap management, granted a 3rd Round comp pick to go along with the Cap savings as well. 

[LetJamesCook]

51 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Yeah, not sure why they didn’t just paint over it and move on.  Does not seem like something that should shut down a construction site.  
 

Regarding the Mahomes restructure, I am guessing they will re-sign Tyreek Hill at some point.  I wonder how long it will take for him to get back up to speed, or if he ever will.  

So I get the connecting the dots theory, but that’s ignoring who Hill is. Even the first time he was with KC he repeatedly said it was about the money. He went to Miami because it was about the money. He will probably get offers bigger than what KC can offer. At this point I can pretty much guarantee he Hill will go where he is offered the most money