You should expect Buffalo to win the division & fight for the #1 seed again this season

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm confused as to why everyone has lowered their expectations for the upcoming season with the changes we made.

 

McDermott was an amazing culture builder. We can be forever grateful for the culture he built.

 

What he built in terms of culture that's most important is Josh Allen, who is still the most important figure in the Bills organization.

 

And the beautiful thing is that Josh is so established that EVERYONE knows that.

 

So what are we so worried about at this point? Why would expectations not be higher than last season?

 

I think with this offseason we have given the Head Coach position to a young but still very football experienced offensive playcaller who's chosen to surround himself with a staff that's a combination of experience he can lean on in Fox and Carmichael (gotta love that one is offense and one is defense) and a bunch of young, innovative talent.

 

Top all that off with the fact that now Beane knows he has a fire under his @$$ and I expect we're going to see him become a bit more brazen in his approach in terms of acquiring talent. He's been saying for multiple seasons essentially he doesn't swing for the fences because he wants to make sure this window is open for Josh's prime... well... I think he realizes (like the rest of us) that Josh's prime isn't guaranteed after another few years

 

(personally, I think Josh is going to be an Elite QB into his late 30s because he can transition just fine into being a (almost) pure pocket passer)

 

I don't understand the national narrative that the Bills are taking a step back this year and have a worse situation than 2025 and I especially don't understand that a lot of people on this message board feel the same way.

 

I expect 11-14 wins and honestly I expect us to take back the division and fight for the #1 seed.

 

Go Bills!!!

[Success]

I wholeheartedly agree.

 

The schedule is technically "tough" - but let's face it; not many teams were all that this year.  I can't wait for rematches w/ teams like the Broncos & Texans.  KC will depend a lot on when we see them.  Teams like the Chargers, Ravens & Lions MIGHT be really good, but it's hard to tell right now & based on how all finished the season.

 

And I'm all kinds of excited about seeing our new defensive schemes.  

 

This past year in the AFCE was so weird w/ the Pats not facing ANYONE aside from us.  And man, did they stay healthy compared to the Bills.  I just can't see them taking the division again; I think we win it comfortably.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Success said:

I wholeheartedly agree.

 

The schedule is technically "tough" - but let's face it; not many teams were all that this year.  I can't wait for rematches w/ teams like the Broncos & Texans.  KC will depend a lot on when we see them.  Teams like the Chargers, Ravens & Lions MIGHT be really good, but it's hard to tell right now & based on how all finished the season.

 

And I'm all kinds of excited about seeing our new defensive schemes.  

 

This past year in the AFCE was so weird w/ the Pats not facing ANYONE aside from us.  And man, did they stay healthy compared to the Bills.  I just can't see them taking the division again; I think we win it comfortably.

 

 

Who in the AFC do we honestly expect to be better next year?

[Richard Noggin]

44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Who in the AFC do we honestly expect to be better next year?

 

Cincinnati? Baltimore? Kansas City? 

 

Those three previously established rivals could/should all surpass 2025 results solely based on the likelihood of lesser injury nightmares in 2026. (Also a decent argument for optimism when applied to the Bills.) 

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, Richard Noggin said:

 

Cincinnati? Baltimore? Kansas City? 

 

Those three previously established rivals could/should all surpass 2025 results solely based on the likelihood of lesser injury nightmares in 2026. (Also a decent argument for optimism when applied to the Bills.) 

 

Meh... I think at this point we're afraid of the persona of these 3 teams.

 

The Chiefs are aging and 50+ million over the CAP and have a QB who just tore his ACL and maybe more 2 months ago.

 

Ravens and Bengals??? I'm sorry but we're talking about 1 team in the Ravens that's been wildly overrated for the last few years and a Bengals team that hasn't made the playoffs in the last few years.... both with oft-injured QBs.

 

Throw in tiny hands seeing ghosts Drake Mayr, Bo Nix and the Chargers and I just don't get the trepidation.

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

9 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Meh... I think at this point we're afraid of the persona of these 3 teams.

 

The Chiefs are aging and 50+ million over the CAP and have a QB who just tore his ACL and maybe more 2 months ago.

 

Ravens and Bengals??? I'm sorry but we're talking about 1 team in the Ravens that's been wildly overrated for the last few years and a Bengals team that hasn't made the playoffs in the last few years.... both with oft-injured QBs.

 

Throw in tiny hands seeing ghosts Drake Mayr, Bo Nix and the Chargers and I just don't get the trepidation.

 

 

 

Not trepidation in my case, but a reasonable expectation/assumption that those underperforming teams with high end QBs will likely experience some degree of bounce back in 2026. Nevertheless, your claims that those AFC "top" teams are in fact NOT poised to improve in 2026 actually make a ton of sense to me tbh. KC could absolutely struggle again, given their cap/roster issues and potentially stale/plateaued coaching, but is that the most likely outcome? 

[NeverOutNick]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm confused as to why everyone has lowered their expectations for the upcoming season with the changes we made.

 

McDermott was an amazing culture builder. We can be forever grateful for the culture he built.

 

What he built in terms of culture that's most important is Josh Allen, who is still the most important figure in the Bills organization.

 

And the beautiful thing is that Josh is so established that EVERYONE knows that.

 

So what are we so worried about at this point? Why would expectations not be higher than last season?

 

I think with this offseason we have given the Head Coach position to a young but still very football experienced offensive playcaller who's chosen to surround himself with a staff that's a combination of experience he can lean on in Fox and Carmichael (gotta love that one is offense and one is defense) and a bunch of young, innovative talent.

 

Top all that off with the fact that now Beane knows he has a fire under his @$$ and I expect we're going to see him become a bit more brazen in his approach in terms of acquiring talent. He's been saying for multiple seasons essentially he doesn't swing for the fences because he wants to make sure this window is open for Josh's prime... well... I think he realizes (like the rest of us) that Josh's prime isn't guaranteed after another few years

 

(personally, I think Josh is going to be an Elite QB into his late 30s because he can transition just fine into being a (almost) pure pocket passer)

 

I don't understand the national narrative that the Bills are taking a step back this year and have a worse situation than 2025 and I especially don't understand that a lot of people on this message board feel the same way.

 

I expect 11-14 wins and honestly I expect us to take back the division and fight for the #1 seed.

 

Go Bills!!!

Totally agree. If we went into next season the same as before I’d be pessimistic but I’m so excited this offseason to see what happens. We have the best player in the world and a new direction where the whole league is on notice to prepare for. Leonhard is going to breathe life into the stale bend don’t break defense and the urgency Beane and Brady have to win now feels real. The staff has a great mix of creative young minds and veteran leadership. I’m very hopeful. I expect Beane and his team to change their focus to getting Josh what he needs; WRs in a good WR draft and aggressive edge rushers for Leonhards defense to be successful. I’m going to start doing my deep dive on WRs again and I finally have optimism that we will actually grab a couple for once. From my first glance I’m seeing a lot of potential in this WR class with a lot of different types of WRs too. I don’t think we need to do the retread JAG route we’ve been doing with the position in the past. Be aggressive by getting Justin Jefferson (proven best WR in the league with a mess at QB) or get the young cheap guys in the draft where it doesn’t hurt if you miss once in a while like it does with crap contracts given to nobodies like Samuel and Palmer. With edge guys I trust Leonhard to find guys in the league or in the draft to fit his aggressive mindset since he’s been in both recently and was extremely successful in both the NFL and college doing so. This is a way tougher schedule than last year. I knew going into this year that McD would blow a game or 2 he shouldn’t during the regular season to keep us from the one seed as per usual but never expected us to lose the division to a brand new head coach and 2nd year lesser QB than what we have in Josh. This year we won’t lose the division and we will be the 1 seed. I have faith in that. AFC west is scary but those teams will be bloodied up killing each other. Burrow will be back and I expect him to be great but it’s such a cheap organization. They will lose Hendrickson and unless they nail the draft, that D will be trash. Ravens will be the same as always. Great FO and lots of talent but an aging Henry and Lamar who can’t win in the playoffs doesn’t scare me. AFC south will be a lesser version of the AFC west. We will own the AFC this year and barring major injuries, we are going to the SB! Go Bills 

Edited February 14 by NeverOutNick

[PetermansRedemption]

I like the coaching staff, but I’ll wait to see how the off-season acquisitions play out with free agency/draft/trades before I decide if I’m more or less optimistic than last year. 

[GunnerBill]

I am less confident than last year because the schedule is tougher and because at this point I don't trust Beane to make the necessary moves to upgrade the roster. 

 

This time last year Metcalf, Garrett and Crosby were all being talked about relentlessly as big swing moves. Two turned out to be unattainable and the Bills didn't pursue the other one seriously. This year it's JJ, AJ Brown and Crosby again. But I'm in believe it when I see it mode. 

 

I'm fine with Joe Brady and largely fine with the staff they have built. I don't see it as a massive upgrade but I also don't see it as the thing likely to hold us back. 

 

But this roster as constituted right now is not, despite what the GM, owner and the OP of this thread think, a Superbowl roster. It needs some more elite talent. Not good players or even very good players... it needs 1 or 2 more elite level guys. If it gets them.... then tougher schedule be damned I will expect the Bills to compete for the 1 seed and a Superbowl. If it doesn't I'll expect the playoffs again, and another "coulda, shoulda, woulda" exit.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Meh... I think at this point we're afraid of the persona of these 3 teams.

 

The Chiefs are aging and 50+ million over the CAP and have a QB who just tore his ACL and maybe more 2 months ago.

 

Ravens and Bengals??? I'm sorry but we're talking about 1 team in the Ravens that's been wildly overrated for the last few years and a Bengals team that hasn't made the playoffs in the last few years.... both with oft-injured QBs.

 

Throw in tiny hands seeing ghosts Drake Mayr, Bo Nix and the Chargers and I just don't get the trepidation.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Not trepidation in my case, but a reasonable expectation/assumption that those underperforming teams with high end QBs will likely experience some degree of bounce back in 2026. Nevertheless, your claims that those AFC "top" teams are in fact NOT poised to improve in 2026 actually make a ton of sense to me tbh. KC could absolutely struggle again, given their cap/roster issues and potentially stale/plateaued coaching, but is that the most likely outcome? 

While I largely agree that the Bills will be improved, I also believe those 3 teams bounce back. Much like the Bills, and even moreso, the Chiefs cap situation is way overblown. By restructuring Mahomes, and cutting 3 obvious guys, they’re $20M+ to the good. The have another $50M-$55M with the restructure of Jones, Humphrey and Trey Snmith. There’s more that they can easily open. If we are saying that they are not going to be as good as they’ve gotten another year older and Mahomes coming off injury -sure. If we are saying, “they’re in cap hell” it’s not true. Like the Bills, they’ll have the ability to chase anyone that they want. 

[NeverOutNick]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But this roster as constituted right now is not, despite what the GM, owner and the OP of this thread think, a Superbowl roster. It needs some more elite talent. Not good players or even very good players... it needs 1 or 2 more elite level guys. If it gets them.... then tougher schedule be damned I will expect the Bills to compete for the 1 seed and a Superbowl. If it doesn't I'll expect the playoffs again, and another "coulda, shoulda, woulda" exit.

I agree with that. If we could get Justin Jefferson and Maxx Crosby this offseason while only losing 2 first rounders (JJ) and 2 second rounders (Maxx) and then picking up Malachi Fields on Day 2 of the draft, I may run through my neighborhood naked and place a huge bet on bills winning the Super Bowl this year. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

But this roster as constituted right now is not, despite what the GM, owner and the OP of this thread think, a Superbowl roster

 

When I compare it to the rosters of the two teams who just played in a Super Bowl, I heartily disagree.

 

That said, I would love to see a couple more “elite” players added, but there is absolutely no reason not to be optimistic going into next season.  You have clearly turned the corner on Beane to the point where you seem to not give him any benefit of the doubt and think the roster moves of the past few years are 100% on him despite a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal evidence that McD was a lot more controlling than most thought.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, eball said:

 

When I compare it to the rosters of the two teams who just played in a Super Bowl, I heartily disagree.

 

That said, I would love to see a couple more “elite” players added, but there is absolutely no reason not to be optimistic going into next season.  You have clearly turned the corner on Beane to the point where you seem to not give him any benefit of the doubt and think the roster moves of the past few years are 100% on him despite a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal evidence that McD was a lot more controlling than most thought.

 

 

 

But this roster was not in the Superbowl. Those rosters get the benefit of the doubt. Because they were. 

[Bill from NYC]

Putting possible injuries aside, I think that there is a distinct possibility the the Bills will be a better team now that McDermott won't be calling the shots. It is hard for me to picture Brady/Beane putting emphasis on defense the way McDermott did. Also as a result of the firing, it is reasonable to believe that they got rid of his play not to lose philosophy. 

 

Of course, all possible good things do hinge upon what happens in the draft and free agency. As Bills Fans we have seen the same dumb mistakes made by different regimes. Call me crazy but something tells me that this time will be different.

[SoonerBillsFan]

I can see a 12-14 win season.  It will take the first half of the season for the Defense get sorted, and thats ok.  

 

We will have a better idea after FA, the Draft and camp.  I pray the self inflicted mass of injuries ends. If that happens, we have a hulk! ( Josh Allen) so I always have hope.

[harryS]

Leonhard even talked about it in his press conference that Season 2 might look different from Season 1.  Even a defensive mind like Mike MacDonald took two seasons to fully implement and find players to fit his system.  There will be an adjustment period for both coach and players.

 

Likewise, Brady will have some growing pains as a first-time HC and he was honest about that in his presser, too.

[Sojourner]

Coaching change and potential defensive scheme overhaul. 
 

But, as long as there’s Josh and the Jets/Dolphins in the division, expectations shouldn’t change. And I don’t think many are. 
 

From what I’m reading most people firmly believe this team is still to be competing to and where they are at in terms of a standard in comparison to the last few seasons. 

Expectations haven’t changed imo. There’s concern for what’s going to happen going forward. Which have some validity. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Who in the AFC do we honestly expect to be better next year?

All of em. The expectations are the expectations. They don't change because we let Sean go. If anything they get turned up a notch because, in theory, we don't have Sean holding us back. 

 

This is a hopeful time. Before the draft and free agency where we could easily have $60M to spend and there are players that should be available to fill the holes we have. 

 

There's three phases for improvement for a team. First, the one we are in now. And this is where you upgrade coaching. I think they have done that and the were aggressive in doing so. The second is Free Agency. If they attack that like they did the coaching staff hires, I can see some quality guys added. No more Jordan Phillips type players. The third is the draft. I expect to see Beane more aggressive here then in years past, up to even trading our 1st for an EGDE or Quality WR.

[Buffalo ill]

The only reason I'm not letting the Denver game live rent free in my head (compared to the yearly losses to the chiefs) is my excitement for next season.  If we were running it back with McDermott I would be a lot less enthusiastic.

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I am less confident than last year because the schedule is tougher and because at this point I don't trust Beane to make the necessary moves to upgrade the roster. 

 

This time last year Metcalf, Garrett and Crosby were all being talked about relentlessly as big swing moves. Two turned out to be unattainable and the Bills didn't pursue the other one seriously. This year it's JJ, AJ Brown and Crosby again. But I'm in believe it when I see it mode. 

 

I'm fine with Joe Brady and largely fine with the staff they have built. I don't see it as a massive upgrade but I also don't see it as the thing likely to hold us back. 

 

But this roster as constituted right now is not, despite what the GM, owner and the OP of this thread think, a Superbowl roster. It needs some more elite talent. Not good players or even very good players... it needs 1 or 2 more elite level guys. If it gets them.... then tougher schedule be damned I will expect the Bills to compete for the 1 seed and a Superbowl. If it doesn't I'll expect the playoffs again, and another "coulda, shoulda, woulda" exit.

With those 3 it's more "NFL Insider" driven than anything. Teams simply do not line up to take big dead cap hits on players of that nature unless they absolutely have to (Like Russ Wilson forgetting how to play football or Diggs shoving his way out). 

 

1. The Vikings will upgrade the QB spot and dump McCarthy before getting rid of Jefferson. I've already seen talk of a potential Cousins reunion. That would make JJ very happy. He's even come out and said he's a Viking and wants to stay one. 

 

2. AJ Brown spent all of Super Bowl week applauding the coaching changes on the Philadelphia Offense. Said he's looking for to getting back to work in Philly. 

 

3. Crosby has shot down the talk of wanting out of Vegas, is staying in the area and rehabbing there. 

 

We live in an era where 1,000 guys who cover the NFL make multiple TV appearances every day and need SOMETHING to talk about. We see this every year and for every 1 Parsons or Metcalf trades we hear about 500 Crosby or Jefferson "trades" that never happen and never were seriously on the verge of happening. 

 

And as with most times, if a player gets truly disgruntled....all that mean is he's about to get a reworked contract with more guaranteed money. Tale as old as time.