Super Bowl Betting, you have any wagers?

[BillytheKid]

Who do you think will win the Super Bowl  or cover the Spread? Any other wagers you are playing on the game or props? 
 

I originally liked Seattle but the more I have looked into this game I believe New England will actually cover the spread and have a chance to win it outright. 
 

I hate having to say that as a Bills fan but as a Pro Sports Handicapper there are more reasons pointing towards New England covering then Seattle and money is far more important than the Pats losing the Super Bowl to me. 
 

I had originally taken Seattle -3.5 when the line first came out, with in the first 5 minutes of it being released,  but have since bought it back and put more money down on the Pats at +5 
 

Here are the reasons below I have the Pats most likely covering. 
 

THE MOST RELEVANT TRENDS POINTING TO NEW ENGLAND +4.5 / +5:

1. Spread-Specific Trend (-4.5 to -5 favorites) • There have been 5 Super Bowls with a favorite of -4.5 or -5. • The underdog is 5-0 ATS and 4-1 straight up. • This game sits exactly on that number. This is the strongest, most precise trend for this matchup. All 5 of those games with this spread have happened since 2010. 

 

Those 5 games are these:

 

02/07/2010
Indianapolis -4.5 vs New Orleans
New Orleans won 31-17

02/03/2013
San Francisco -4.5 vs Baltimore
Baltimore won 34-31

 

02/06/2016
Carolina -5 vs Denver
Denver won 24-10

 

02/04/2018
New England -4.5 vs Philadelphia
Philadelphia won 41-33

 

02/13/2022
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs Cincinnati
Los Angeles won 23-20
 

2. Expert Consensus Trap • 18 of 19 NFL writers picked Seattle. • When the entire world is on one side, the line is usually inflated. Suggests Seattle is overpriced, not that Seattle is wrong.

3. Trend - Teams that win despite scoring under 12 points • Those teams are 23-11-1 ATS next game (67.6%). • New England just won 10-7 in Denver. Momentum system favors New England.

4. Trend - New England vs elite run defenses • NE is 11-4 ATS vs defenses allowing under 3.9 YPR. • Seattle is the #1 run defense.  Direct matchup trend favors New England.

5. Trend – Key Stat Categories that win Super Bowls (TOP, rushing, YPA, turnovers) • NE projected to win Time of Possession. • NE projected to win Rushing Yardage. • Seattle projected to win Yards Per Attempt. • Turnovers are the swing variable. Game script leans toward a close NE cover.

6. Trend – NE on 3+ game winning streaks • 38-7 SU and 33-12 ATS since 2016.  Supports NE staying hot.

7. Trend - Underdogs in SEA–NE series • Dogs are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Historical matchup leans toward the dog.

TRENDS FAVORING SEATTLE:

1. Trend – Better scoring defense • Teams with the better scoring defense are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowls. • Seattle allowed fewer points than New England.  Strongest pro-Seattle trend, but predicts SU more than ATS.

 

FINAL VERDICT: When you weigh all the trends — especially the spread-specific -4.5/-5 trend, the expert consensus trap, the momentum system, New England’s ATS profile vs elite run defenses, and the key stat category breakdown — the highest-probability side is New England +4.5 / +5.

Seattle’s strongest trend (better scoring defense) points to them winning the game, but not necessarily covering this number. The cluster of the most predictive, matchup-relevant trends all point to the Patriots covering, with a real chance to win outright.

 

So that is why I’ll be on New England +5 for the Super Bowl, even though I hate it as a Bills fan but at the end of the day, Cash is King.

 

Any of you betting on the Super Bowl or have any other wagers you are playing? 

[zow2]

I only have two bets in so far but looking for a few more good ones before game time. 

 

Seahawks -4.5

 

Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions 

 

I think it will be a pretty close game, something like 27-21 Seattle.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Seattle by 10-20. 
JSN over 100/td/7+ catches

[boyst]

Bet: won't watch it.

Wager: I won't watch it because I am binging Yellowstone 

[reddogblitz]

No bets for me.  It's a rip off.

[Offside Number 76]

I have a four square in a pool. 

 

 

Edited February 7 by Offside Number 76

[SoonerBillsFan]

Seattle by at least 20

[paulmm3]

I don't know how anyone who watches Bills games can have enough faith in the integrity of the officiating in this league to ever place a bet on a game.

[The Wiz]

I bet I don't watch it.

[sven233]

I will be taking the Pats* on the moneyline.  Look....every common sense thing tells you that the Seahawks should win this game, and probably comfortably.  Yes, the Pats* have beaten the top defenses in the Playoffs, but they have beaten those teams because of their own defense.....not their offense.  The Pats* have stunk on offense in the Playoffs but because their defense is only giving up like 9 points a game.

 

I think that with the layoff, both teams come out rusty and the defenses control the game in the first half.  This feels like one of those games where the halftime score is like 7-6, 10-7.....something like that.  Then it's about what happens in the 2nd half and I just fear that if the Pats* do keep it close for a majority of the game, IT'S BOUND TO HAPPEN.......the Pats* will get some freak break from the refs or some weird play that only happens to benefit the Pats* and Chiefs.  They will get a major break and it could swing the whole game and they end up winning a squeaker.....17-14 or some crap like that.  Maye will be named MVP throwing for 127 yards 1 TD and 2 turnovers and 4 sacks or something stupid like that and everyone will crown him as the next big thing.

 

Obviously, we'll all be rooting for a Seahawks blowout, but we know how this crap goes.  Whatever makes our lives more painful and annoying as Bills fans always happens.  So yeah....I am betting the Pats* so I can at least profit off of our collective misery.......  

[Draconator]

I bet more often than not this football season, and I have won NOTHING!!!! So I'll probably sit the Super Bowl out. 

[Doc Brown]

$150 on Pats money line (+190) and $150 on Pats at +4.5 (-110).  Everything that could go right has gone right for the Patriots this year.  Vrabel (as a player) and McDaniels (as a coordinator) having Super Bowl experience is huge imo.  I also think that Pats defense force some crucial mistakes by Darnold.

[zow2]

I’m definitely hedging my Seahawks action with some favoring some Patriots props and maybe Pats +4.5 + the Under.

[Bookie Man]

If Pats win I'm out almost 4k. 

 

GO HAWKS

[US Egg]

20 minutes ago, Bookie Man said:

If Pats win I'm out almost 4k. 

 

GO HAWKS

Well if you’re gonna tell us how much you’ll lose…..👂

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Got all my loot on the Puppy Bowl.... YOU GOT THIS SKITTLES!!!!

[US Egg]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Got all my loot on the Puppy Bowl.... YOU GOT THIS SKITTLES!!!!

Be prepared. There’s suppose to be a few special needs dog participants. Might tug a little on the ole heart strings.

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, US Egg said:

Be prepared. There’s suppose to be a few special needs dog participants. Might tug a little on the ole heart strings.

My buddy's dog is special need! It only walks backwards in a zigzag! 

 

That seems actually extraordinary

[WotAGuy]

I can see Darnold pulling a Billy Joe Hobart and giving the game to New England. If I was going to bet, I’d put it on NE moneyline. 

[longtimebillsfan]

We always do prop bets. We got carried away this year and made 28 different prop bets.  We usually make a little money on them. it makes the game more fun if you have no rooting interest.