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Posted
1 hour ago, milfandcookies said:

Cupboard is bare on defense and they are talking a lot about subtractions

I fear that there may need to be subtractions when you look at the overall cap... players getting paid like B +/-  players performing like C +/- players are the first target... so coming to mind... Bernard, Oliver, Rapp, Johnson, Jones, Milano  etc... then when you throw in a new defense, depending how they align with the requirements could put even more pressure to move them if their expected production or value in the new scheme diminishes...  if these things are the case, Oliver imo is a potential candidate to go, especially if the new scheme has him in a diminished role... if the new D coaches are like no he fits perfectly and we think he can be a bigger contributor then maybe not... but the bottom line is that there will be changes, new personel etc... and there needs to be... some of these folks that I listed simply are not gonna be here next year. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, JP51 said:

I fear that there may need to be subtractions when you look at the overall cap... players getting paid like B +/-  players performing like C +/- players are the first target... so coming to mind... Bernard, Oliver, Rapp, Johnson, Jones, Milano  etc... then when you throw in a new defense, depending how they align with the requirements could put even more pressure to move them if their expected production or value in the new scheme diminishes...  if these things are the case, Oliver imo is a potential candidate to go, especially if the new scheme has him in a diminished role... if the new D coaches are like no he fits perfectly and we think he can be a bigger contributor then maybe not... but the bottom line is that there will be changes, new personel etc... and there needs to be... some of these folks that I listed simply are not gonna be here next year. 


very true and then the defense will be even worse 

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Posted

You know... it's been bugging me for the last couple of weeks, so I'll just get it off my chest now...

 

Kudos to Ed for stepping up and making it back on the field AND making a true impact in the Divisional game against Denver.

 

BUT...

 

When we needed him most -- when the game hung in the balance, protecting a 4-point lead with less than 2 minutes to go, he was on the sidelines. I know it was reported as a knee issue, and I don't doubt that he was advised to stay out of the game for his own well-being. But availability is certainly something that has not been his strength. Meanwhile, we have Josh Allen playing with a broken foot (among other injuries).

 

Like I said, I will never be one to second-guess a guy's ability to play through an injury, but the bottom line is that too many times it just doesn't seem like Ed is able to push through. And I will always wonder if his absence on that ill-fated final drive in regulation may have been the difference in seizing victory there.

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Posted
1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I trade him at the combine.  He was brought in for McDermotts smaller DL setup, so he doesn't fit in any DL position we will be running. IF healthy, he is worth a mid to low 1st rounder, maybe more.  We need the draft picks, we need to replace him on the DL.

I did some research, Very in depth research...Ok Chat GPT and google, and it seems he is worth a 1at rounder IF he is healthy and I think he will be.


a 4th would be a good value at this point.

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Posted (edited)

He does seem like the most out of place piece, in this new defense.

 

Could we deal him as part of a 1st round trade up?

There has to be plenty of teams with a need. The question is what's fair? A 2, or 2 3's?

Edited by Allen2Moulds
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Posted
1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Thoughts?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7018668/2026/02/04/bills-dc-jim-leonhard-defensive-scheme/

 

"Which notable defenders could be the biggest question marks?

 

DT Ed Oliver

 

Oliver is undersized in any scheme, but there’s little argument that he’s better suited to the three-technique role from McDermott’s scheme than what the Bills could be switching to in 2026. Oliver played nose tackle in an odd-man front in college, so he has experience in that scheme. He wouldn’t play nose tackle in Buffalo, with his best fit probably being as a defensive end, though he lacks the length teams usually look for in that role. However, it’s best not to count out Oliver in any assignment, and the Bills won’t be locked into three defensive linemen on every snap. If they don’t want to try to force the issue, the Bills could likely get a nice haul on the trade market for an in-prime defensive tackle on a really manageable contract. They would also get some cap savings."

Imo you dont trade him because of scheme fit, you do it because hes constantly hurt.

 

Could be wrong, but id imagine in a 3 man front, an injury prone player would be even worse. You need very specific players for this role, and seems like there'd be less rotation.... partly switching from mcd's overly rotate heavy theme, and partially because its harder to find and roster the right guys?

 

^Last sentence is an assumption by me. But you can get warm body DT's/DE's from like 28+ teams (most of the league runs 4 - 3)

 

I'm interested in what were doing here. Bernards chance of returning feels even lower now IMO, which might not be a bad thing. The cap hit would suck, but if hes a bad fit AND injury hurt, you bite the bullet IMO. 

 

Im doing some digging in now to try and figure out best fits for the defense in upcoming draft.

 

A player ive really been watching is Pitt LB'er Kyle Louis. Hes already undersized so I was unsure about him at LB'er here before the scheme change,  but maybe he could be a great fit for our Nickel!

 

Hes basically a hybrid nickel already, but a size upgrade from Taron. Hes been durable in college, and I dunno if anyone saw his Senior Bowl work? Dude looked unreal and even had 2 int's in that RB vs LB drill, thats incredibly favor tilted to offense already.

 

If were running bigger guys up front in our front 7 base D already (bigger than in a 4-3), does it make sense to want a bigger nickel??? Or is it the other way around - you give up some speed in favor of size for front 7 - so you'd really like to highlight some speed at Nickel?

 

@GunnerBill@gonzo - maybe you guys or anyone else can help answer some of these 

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Posted
27 minutes ago, milfandcookies said:


very true and then the defense will be even worse 

How do you figure?  28th as is and most under performing.   

 

New and better scheme,  add in a couple guys that already know the system and a couple draft picks and we are better.

Posted
2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A post June 1 trade of Oliver gives you $15Mish of cap space in 2026. You’d have another $12.3M of dead cap space in 2027 but that’s not a big number with the cap being $320M at that point or whatever. I’m not advocating it but it’s an option.

 

I think that the Bills lack top end talent. Oliver is that at times. Now, if we are talking about including him in a package for another high end player or to move up? Sure. 

 

While not great, I agree it's doable.  I would want a day 1 or 2 pick for him though,  I wouldn't do it for anything less.  

Posted

seattle shipped off their star number 1 wr for a pick and got better, we can do the same.

 

if he can fit in the new scheme and be a stud then obvs i want to keep him, but after a good 2023, he was ass in 24 and 25.  

 

our d got rolled in the playoffs when he was playing, and when he was hurt.  he's not really a difference maker, he's just a good player with bad health on a big contract.  

 

id ship him out and consider doing the same w dion -- you want to get out of these contracts too early rather than too late.

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Posted

Ed is a lot like Edmunds. Bills fans love him but the metrics to back it up just aren't there. He's definitely not a fit in the new scheme. I'm thinking package him with a 1st (or two) and try to pry Jefferson from the Vikings. 

Posted
38 minutes ago, milfandcookies said:


very true and then the defense will be even worse 

I dont think we know if it will or wont.... is the scheme better, we will be able to get players to execute it.... all are unknown... but yes that potential exists as it does with any major change (and I think most of us thought change was needed) ... especially if Beane views this as a regroup year.... but I know this under the present construction with the present players it wasnt getting any better either and it clearly wasnt good enough... and we were spending alot of money on it... sometimes to get better you need to take a step sideways or back... I am not saying we are... but in the end... all I want to do is win a SB... so whatever that takes, I am for. 

Posted
2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Sorry bud no way. he is a 3 gap disrupter and not that old.  Mid to low 1st is what he should bring. Would if push come to shove, turn down a very high 2nd and maybe a 4th? Nope I take it.  But he is going to bring more than some think

I disagree on his worth overall, but even if I didn't, a 1st plus his contract (even setting aside injury which is hugeeeee) doesn't scream 1st rder. Id take a 2nd in a heartbeat

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Posted
2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

He was brought in for McDermotts smaller DL setup, so he doesn't fit in any DL position we will be running.

It's like the last manager was selling Fiat 500s.  He left, this new manager wants nothing but Ford F-350 dually diesels. 😁

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Posted
1 hour ago, BillsPride12 said:

You might not remember Jeff Wright as well as you think lol...he was a major liability for those Super Bowl teams

 

He had a great mullet though.  :)

 

And he did finally end Marino's sackless streak...

Posted
2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'd do it for a third. I'd run to the phone if someone was talking about it first. I'd really be surprised if they got a first for him.

I think a 3 is it... 1st... omg do it now.

1 hour ago, BillsPride12 said:

You might not remember Jeff Wright as well as you think lol...he was a major liability for those Super Bowl teams

Jeff Wright was summarily B slapped and dismissed in the Super Bowls... if we had Sam Adams or Ted Washington etc... things might have been different... Wright was quick and got the odd sack... but was definately a weak link on that defense...  I do not see Ed as a NT doing much better... 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think he will be here and he will play a lot at nose. People's idea about the way 3-4 nose tackles play is 10 years out of date. Lots of teams use smaller, quicker penetrators at nose including, for example, the Broncos whose starting nose is the 290lbs Malcolm Roach.

Also the front will be changing - it will not just always be a static 3-4, and even then like you said it won't be your grandpa's 3-4

Edited by stevewin
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