Warren Sharp: How McDermott laid the blueprint for beating Drake Maye

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, T.E. said:

Warning - 70% of the money is on Seattle and the line hasn't moved even half a point.

That money will come down a lot by the time the Super Bowl comes and the line actually moved with in 5 minutes of it being posted. 
 

Opened -3.5 and got bet up to -5 right away then came back to -4.5 the same night it was released. I took Seattle -3.5

 

So none of that matters. I’ve been doing this for over 30 years. 
 

This Super Bowl isn’t even close to lopsided money compared to others I have seen and won’t matter. Biggest lopsided money I have ever seen on a Super Bowl was Denver getting every bet vs Seattle in 2013.

 

This one isn’t even close to that. Money in the range it is in now always evens out the week of the Super Bowl leading up to the game. 
 

Seattle will end up with more money on them but not enough to make it an auto fade on them. 
 

Seattle is the correct play. 
 

 

 

 

 

[JohnNord]

22 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yet so many wanted him gone years ago! This board is mercurial if nothing else. One thing is certain: a coach rarely gets a full decade without as much as a Super Bowl appearance. It was a matter of ownership being content with their lot or trying something new to get over the hump. It’s never a guarantee, and of course it isn’t now. 

Sal C. made an interesting observation  this morning - which is rare because he normally avoids anything Bills-related that could be taken as controversial. 
 

He wondered if the reason Sean McDermott was fired was because of the defensive philosophy and not necessarily him as a head coach.  Ideally they’d want McDermott as a HC and a new DC with complete autonomy but that never was going to happen.  

I think McDermott is a great defensive coach but ultimately they never the horses they needed up front - that’s on both him

and Beane

 

Edited February 3 by JohnNord

[uticaclub]

3 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

It was a mix between an injured defense with minimal talent (especially up front) and weak depth as well an offense that struggled.  
 

To his credit he mostly shot down NE in the second half.  
 

McDermott did a very solid job coaching this season and was done few favors by Brandon Beane’s roster. 

Why would you throw the ball if you give up ~10 yards/carry on the ground?

[Magox]

54 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I normally like Warren Sharp but his analysis is garbage here. 

 

It's true that we held the Patriots passing game in check during that game. Maye finished 14/23 for 155 yards 0 TD 1 INT. The INT was an arm punt. The problem is that we allowed 246 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs on only 25 carries. 

 

Sharp purposefully ignores the rushing stats and that the Patriots scored 31 points. This was an awful game by the Bills defense. We won the game because Josh Allen and James Cook scored TDs on 5 consecutive drives. 

 

The Bills didn’t run cover 6 in the first half.   It was the 2nd half when they made the change at over a 50% clip.  The only good play they had on offense in the 2nd half was that one long TD run.

 

The point he made was a good one

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Cash said:

TL;DW?

 

He ran Cover 6 on 50% of Maye's passing downs and it messed him up. Run Cover 6. That's the whole video.

[Magox]

27 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

NE has gone 6-0 since then...I don't think anyone has duplicated anything.

Their offense has sucked since then.  Thats the point he is making.  Nevermind, you don’t do nuance

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

Exactly, but if anyone had any confidence with the defense; they could have played a looser game and not turn the ball as often.

It opened at 3 & is now 4.5. There are so many sucker prob bets and parlays with the Super Bowl; the book is cleaning house either way

How much looser do you want to play than having your QB inexplicably toss the ball down on the middle of the freaking field as if it was a hot potato? I’ve never seen a professional football player do that in my life. 

[uticaclub]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

Their offense has sucked since then.  Thats the point he is making.  Nevermind, you don’t do nuance

They score 28 (Ravens needing the W) & 42 (ok, the Jets) the next two games. The offense sucks in the playoffs because they are playing better teams

[Steptide]

I know it won't happen, but if Seattle wins Sunday and the coach says after the game that they used buffalos scheme to help them win, that'd be the greatest bills troll to the pats ever. 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

Sal C. made an interesting observation  this morning - which is rare because he normally avoids anything Bills-related that could be taken as controversial. 
 

He wondered if the reason Sean McDermott was fired was because of the defensive philosophy and not necessarily him as a head coach.  Ideally they’d want McDermott as a HC and a new DC with complete autonomy but that never was going to happen.  

I think McDermott is a great defensive coach but ultimately they never the horses they needed up front - that’s on both him

and Beane

 

Yes, it was his scheme. How many horses are required to run this effectively? Who doesn't want to play coverage with 7 players while 4 can pressure. But to do that you need ELITE lineman. Not just good. All the while your run defense will be sieve because you need 4 attacking lineman and no anchor. As the league shifted to more of a running approach, as did we, we got completely gashed and philosophically had no alignment between offense and defense. We need to run, but we don't care about stopping the run? Makes sense. 

 

He had Pro Bowlers at every level in Carolina. Few teams get that level of talent.  He had more talent in past iterations with the Bills but same implosion when it mattered most. The direction was JV level. A good coach schemes to what he has. Almost a decade of players that fit what he wanted, regardless if elite or not, is a luxury almost no defensive coach ever gets. At the very least, it should have been enough for him to say, hmmm, maybe we should try and do things another way. But that was never going to happen. He cost us a dynasty, it's that simple. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I normally like Warren Sharp but his analysis is garbage here. 

 

It's true that we held the Patriots passing game in check during that game. Maye finished 14/23 for 155 yards 0 TD 1 INT. The INT was an arm punt. The problem is that we allowed 246 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs on only 25 carries. 

 

Sharp purposefully ignores the rushing stats and that the Patriots scored 31 points. This was an awful game by the Bills defense. We won the game because Josh Allen and James Cook scored TDs on 5 consecutive drives. 

Exactly. 

 

What it boils down to is "Have a defense so bad at stopping the run that teams won't pass a lot on you"

 

It's why I roll my eyes at people saying we had the "#2 pass defense in the NFL". Teams didn't pass because they didn't have to. And when the did pass more times than not they had success. 

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, T.E. said:

Warning - 70% of the money is on Seattle and the line hasn't moved even half a point.

Wait.... you mean 70% of the tickets, or 70% of the cash here? Because those are very different

 

If it is the cash, what are the mechanics behind that? That doesnt seem right

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, boater said:

I was told McDermott was a terrible coach.

 

This story lauding him must be untrue.

It's interesting how the whole McD thing has become like a standard political debate, with it devolving into a black and white argument. 

 

I haven't seen many people here call him a terrible coach. I think most people acknowledge he's a very good coach who will have a lot of success wherever he goes next (even though a lot of that success will hinge on having at least a quality QB). But that doesn't take away from the fact that he also made some terrible blunders when things ramped up in the postseason. 

 

Just look at the stat about the d-line not getting a single sack in all those playoff losses. Look at all the times the offense left the field with the lead only for his soft defense to give up a score. His message was tired, the players seemed tired and McD himself was probably tired of the the spinning wheel they were all stuck on. The way it was handled was messy and unprofessional at times but when it's all said and done both parties might be better off.

 

 

[K-9]

Mentioned at the time that McD had Maye confused in that second half. What’s interesting to me is that Maye has a ton of time and still can’t decipher the coverage as, even with all that time, receivers still weren’t coming open soon enough. McDaniels deserves some criticism for that as well. 

[Mr. WEO]

18 minutes ago, Magox said:

Their offense has sucked since then.  Thats the point he is making.  Nevermind, you don’t do nuance

 

True, I miss the nuance hidden in a 6-0 run and spot in the SB.  

 

They are averaging 27 PPG over that 6 game stretch.  Throw in the 31 they scored agaisnt the Bills with 3 rushing TDs (2 by Maye).

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, US Egg said:

Fair or not, he’s gonna get trashed on that point.

Smart OC’s with a good QB, which is what you see in the playoffs, ate Sean’s lunch.

[JohnNord]

8 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Yes, it was his scheme. How many horses are required to run this effectively? Who doesn't want to play coverage with 7 players while 4 can pressure. But to do that you need ELITE lineman. Not just good. All the while your run defense will be sieve because you need 4 attacking lineman and no anchor. As the league shifted to more of a running approach, as did we, we got completely gashed and philosophically had no alignment between offense and defense. We need to run, but we don't care about stopping the run? Makes sense. 

 

He had Pro Bowlers at every level in Carolina. Few teams get that level of talent.  He had more talent in past iterations with the Bills but same implosion when it mattered most. The direction was JV level. A good coach schemes to what he has. Almost a decade of players that fit what he wanted, regardless if elite or not, is a luxury almost no defensive coach ever gets. At the very least, it should have been enough for him to say, hmmm, maybe we should try and do things another way. But that was never going to happen. He cost us a dynasty, it's that simple. 

He cost us a dynasty?  That’s a bit much.  I’ll say this - the defense is predicated on getting to the QB with the front 4 rushers.  

He never had that in Buffalo and that’s largely why the defense continually failed.  It’s not only the players on the edge but also the interior.  The guys that they re-signed really weren’t even that good 
 

The closest might have been 2022 with Von Miller.  If you want the beginning of the season with Von/Oliver/DaQuan/Rosseau that defense played well because it was executed as designed.   They were giving up 20 or less points most weeks.  Injuries ended that.  
 

Since they never found a combo that was anywhere near as effective.  It was especially bad this season on the front and back of the defense and that’s why McDermott had to throw out every coverage. For the talent he had, they did a decent job.   But ultimately that’s why they had issues in the post season.  
 

 

[turbo044]

2 hours ago, astb41 said:

So if Allen hits Knox over the middle, we're in the Super Bowl.  GREAT.

Or if he doesn't short hop the ball to Shakir, or if Cook doesn't fumble, or if Cooks catches the ball (if he actually didn't catch it??), or if Maclin )or whatever his name is) runs the route correctly before the throw to Cooks, or if the olineman makes a basic fumble recovery on Josh's first fumble.  Any other play that I am missing??

[eball]

1 hour ago, boater said:

I was told McDermott was a terrible coach.

 

So...literally NO ONE has said that.  Nobody.  In fact, most of his critics have even gone out of their way to praise the culture he brought to Buffalo and his development of players.

 

This narrative that suggests people are saying he was a bad coach needs to stop.  He had flaws in crucial moments and it was time for a change.  It really is that simple.

 

[JohnNord]

7 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

It's interesting how the whole McD thing has become like a standard political debate, with it devolving into a black and white argument. 

 

I haven't seen many people here call him a terrible coach. I think most people acknowledge he's a very good coach who will have a lot of success wherever he goes next (even though a lot of that success will hinge on having at least a quality QB). But that doesn't take away from the fact that he also made some terrible blunders when things ramped up in the postseason. 

 

Just look at the stat about the d-line not getting a single sack in all those playoff losses. Look at all the times the offense left the field with the lead only for his soft defense to give up a score. His message was tired, the players seemed tired and McD himself was probably tired of the the spinning wheel they were all stuck on. The way it was handled was messy and unprofessional at times but when it's all said and done both parties might be better off.

 

 

There are plenty of people saying he’s not a good coach.  
 

And besides :13 your scenario about leaving the field with a lead is untrue.  if you want to play that game.  How many times did Josh Allen and the offense leave the field without scoring the TD they needed to WIN the game?  
 

I count three in a row.

 

If you want to talk Denver, then let’s talk about 5 turnovers, the fumble which gave Denver 3 points, and Josh’s failure to score the game winning FG in OT after the defense…. Made a stop!  
 

perhaps that’s the nuance you speak of?

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

So...literally NO ONE has said that.  Nobody.  In fact, most of his critics have even gone out of their way to praise the culture he brought to Buffalo and his development of players.

 

This narrative that suggests people are saying he was a bad coach needs to stop.  He had flaws in crucial moments and it was time for a change.  It really is that simple.

 

I have seen plenty of fans say that McDermott was simply a bad coach carried by Josh Allen and that any coach content for a Super Bowl with Allen as their QB.  

4 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Or if he doesn't short hop the ball to Shakir, or if Cook doesn't fumble, or if Cooks catches the ball (if he actually didn't catch it??), or if Maclin )or whatever his name is) runs the route correctly before the throw to Cooks, or if the olineman makes a basic fumble recovery on Josh's first fumble.  Any other play that I am missing??

Basically what you are saying is, it wasn’t only the defense and McDermott that lost this football game?  

8 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Smart OC’s with a good QB, which is what you see in the playoffs, ate Sean’s lunch.

I think 5 turnovers at Sean’s lunch if we’re bending honest here… huh huh huh