Sad as it may seem, this is three years too late

[colin]

Klint kubiac looks pretty great, and I've read he's well tied to our owner/front office.

 

OP, you are of course correct in your comparison, maybe dicky j was more behind the times than mcclap, but both play tight, both make bone head game time decisions, both want the o to have training wheels to protect their precious d, and both do really well vs below average teams but get absolutely wrecked by good ones.

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

I still want Kubiak

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Well I mean if you think about it The Bills have a much better QB, much better RBs, much better TEs and much better Offensive line. The only thing the Seahawks are better is at Wideout on offense. 
 

The Seahawks offensive line was an absolute disaster last year and he’s made it competent, he’s made a journey man QB competent. He also doesn’t have to play call the same way in Seattle  that Brady has had to in Buffalo due to having a much better defense in Seattle. There are a lot of factors that go into it 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

Well I mean if you think about it The Bills have a much better QB, much better RBs, much better TEs and much better Offensive line. The only thing the Seahawks are better is at Wideout on offense. 
 

The Seahawks offensive line was an absolute disaster last year and he’s made it competent, he’s made a journey man QB competent. He also doesn’t have to play call the same way in Seattle  that Brady has had to in Buffalo due to having a much better defense in Seattle. There are a lot of factors that go into it 

 

I guess my question is: WHY do people want Kubiak?

 

I am not even saying he’s bad. I’m just asking “why?” … what has he done to say he is a leader of an entire football team? 

[Best Williams Available]

I think in general Bills fans have to stop slobbering all over our teams people, from QB to coach to whatever. These people don’t have to reflect the fanbase or blue collar work ethic of the city. That’s vanity.
 

You look at New England during the dynasty, Brady and Belichek did nothing to endear themselves to Boston fans or the city, they just won. That was enough. When they left or started losing the hate started to bubble. But the stench of winning stayed with Boston for the most part. It’s ok to hire a**holes as long as they win.

Maybe Beane is the a**hole we need right now?

[dave mcbride]

39 minutes ago, GG said:

The move was years in the making, is three years too late, but the firing optics are so bad that they’re leading to distortions of epic proportions to rehabilitate an average coach.

 

For the youngsters in this crowd, the TLDR version of this post is: Sean McDermott is Dick Jauron, but who was fortunate that he lucked out on coaching Josh Allen instead of Trent Edwards, and during a time when the rest of AFC East was in the gutter.

 

Sometimes, recency bias clouds what should have been a fairly straightforward decision, albeit three years too late.  It’s usually good practice to wait 24 hours to process the situation and come to a conclusion after more facts are known.  In this case, what would have been the reaction if McDermott was fired if Bills lost to Jax, or if he had been fired after yet another loss vs KC last year?   My guess is there would be much less consternation than now.   Which hints that people are more upset in the way he was fired than the rationale for the firing.  All of that is discussed in other threads and WGR calls.

 

But, if you take the clumsy firing and emotion out of it, the move had to be made for the team.

 

At the end of the day, McDermott is a fantastic person and a great leader of men, but is at best an average NFL coach.   I challenge anyone to prove that he’s a better coach than Dick Jauron, or at least argue that it was McDermott’s coaching mastery that guided 11-12 win seasons with Allen and Diggs, versus Jauron’s mediocrity with Losman and Trentative consistently winning 7 games in a division with peak Brady.   I’ll wait.

 

To be fair, there is a lot to commend the admiral job McDermott did to wash the stench that his predecessors left at One Bills Drive.  He brought discipline and accountability to the roster.  His team culture-building cannot be ignored in how the team rallied and battled through tough times.   His resilience and guidance after Damar’s near-death should be in every leadership textbook for decades.  His style and personality just meshed with Western New York, who adopted him as if he were their own. Nobody can and should take that away from him.

 

However, that’s not what he is here for.  He was here to bring a championship to the beleaguered city and franchise.  And on that front, he failed miserably. 

 

The real time to part ways was after 13 seconds.  That call was all on him.  It was his decision to kick deep and not squib.  It is his defense that has failed to make the critical stop in each excruciating playoff loss.   It’s not as simple as to point out his teams’ 0’fer in overtimes, it’s to ask why those games ended up in overtime in the first place.

 

In simplest terms, to win in football you need to have a stellar scheme and have players to execute the scheme to win consistently and bring home a championship. To me, if you have to sacrifice one of the two, I will always take the scheme, because it’s nearly impossible to always have the ideal players.  That’s why Wade Phillips was a defensive genius, because he adjusted the defense to the players he had.

 

Not so much with McDermott, whose scheme always needed a Chris Jones, or a healthy Star-type pivot in the front from which all other positions flow.   If you do not have an otherworldly DT who commands all the attention, the scheme falls apart and the defense gives up plays at most critical points.  So when you can’t field all stars in those positions, you call out the GM for the lack of talent in the positions.

 

By all means, it’s not a defense that sucks.  Quite the opposite, the complexity of the defense is great against dumb quarterbacks who will always make a mistake and turn it over.  That strategy is great to get you 9-10 easy wins, but tends to fail in the playoffs where you don’t see a lot of dumb quarterbacks.

 

McDermott’s defenses feast on turnovers, but has been dreadful when it needed a simple stop after 3-4 downs.  That’s been a consistent flavor in each playoff outing.  Even in the wins, how many were with a defensive stop vs a turnover?  How many times did the Bills beat the spread in a playoff game?   Only two wins in McDermott’s career were not nailbiters.  The team almost lost at home to friggin Skylar Thompson.  Is that championship caliber?

 

The biggest issue has been the defensive line, and we’ve all seen the sad statistic of the last sack by a DE in a playoff loss.  Sure, having All-Pros on the DL will add to the sacks, but scheme matters.  How many DL coaches has McDermott cycled through, with equally horrible results?  Maybe it’s not the players and coaches, but the scheme?   Why have free agent DL statistics nose dive when they hit Orchard Park?  Look up Poona Ford’s stats in his career vs one sorry year in a Bills uniform.  Are you telling me that a guy who’s a key player on a Superbowl contender couldn’t get a game day jersey in McDermott’s scheme?  Why do we need explanations that Greg Rousseau’s role is to contain rushing edge rather than rush the passer?  Which is more important?

 

McDermott’s defense never passed the eye test and has never been as dominant as the statistics showed.  He has a far greater grasp of secondary play than he does of the other positions that are also important.  That’s why it doesn’t matter who rotates in the front seven, but if there’s a hiccup among the back four – look out.

 

Compare that with what Kromer did with the OL that’s acknowledged as “elite.”    The elite stature may be a stretch, but they are very good, despite fielding two virtual castoffs from other teams.   Did the line collapse against a stout Steelers’ defense when two backups started?  Imagine the excuses we’d hear if the DL lost two stars for a game?

 

The other question to ask is why have the Bills never had the number one seed in the AFC during this playoff run?   We know why.  It’s always due to the inexplicable losses each October.  Yet, those are always washed away by the surging December wins.  The late season games’ record is undoubtedly a vindication of McDermott’s influence on the team to rise up to adversity.   And that’s wonderful if the October games didn’t count in the standings.  But they do, and you cannot wish away dumb losses to bad Atlanta, Miami, Denver, etc teams to lose the top spot.  Winning teams manage to get over the hump.

 

Maybe it’s just me nitpicking on the defense.  But that weakness is obvious to all inside and outside the team, and that’s why we need Superman Allen to come to the rescue. 

 

Think about it for a second.  Do you think there’s a little voice in Josh’s head that says, “Hey kid, you have to get a touchdown on this drive because you know the other team will just drive down the field and score.”  How many times has a good team NOT drive down the field and scored unless their stupid QB did not throw a pick?  Not too often.

 

Having that little voice in the back of your head matters.

 

So that’s that.  I love Sean McDermott as a man and as a coach and what he did for the franchise.  I also was a big Dick Jauron supporter because he was an awesome human being.   I just didn’t think he was the guy to bring a championship to the city.

Welcome, my friend!!!! Also, fantastic post.

Edited January 21 by dave mcbride

[Arkansasrifle]

McDermott is lucky Ralph wasn’t the owner he would have been fired after the 13 second game

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I guess my question is: WHY do people want Kubiak?

 

I am not even saying he’s bad. I’m just asking “why?” … what has he done to say he is a leader of an entire football team? 

3rd in points and 8th in yards despite having a turnover machine at qb (15 ints; led the league with 11 fumbles). Sometimes judging an OC on EPA fails because the qb turns out to be the person he always has been. What kubiak DID do is get darnold to be an 8.5 ypa passer (the source of all their success), which is higher than josh has ever achieved.

[Buffalo Boy]

31 minutes ago, Gugny said:

Three???

 

13 Seconds should have been the end of this shitshow. 
 

 

  I actually gave him one more year but then I was DONE. 
  As the OP said, his playoff win record was against scrubs and by the hair of his chin often.

  My wife and I were at my sister’s house in Scottsdale with my other sister and their husbands. A little siblings and spouses chill vaca. It was the weekend of that Miami game. 
   My wife is really sweet. Very mild mannered and everyone in the family loves her for it. I don’t remember the play in the second half but it was a crazy close game and McDs D did one of its ridiculously stupid plays allowing a TD or something. Judy starts yelling Shi/ shi/ shi/…. FUDGE ( but she used the king daddy of all swear words) 

   By brother in law’s jaw was on the floor. He absolutely couldn’t believe it was the Judy he thought he knew😂😂😂😂😂

   That was McDs playoff run in a nutshell, excepting the Patriots game and maybe the first Denver game. Unacceptably and infuriatingly too close, too often. 
   That KC playoff game after 13 seconds made it crystal clear to me it would always be thus. 

   The OP is absolutely correct that it should have been more than a couple years. 
    In the interim, we have let a few excellent HC candidates slip through our fingers, all while tons on this board crapped all over them while simultaneously crying about the drought. 
    McD is a good coach and there are a few teams out there who would be crazy not to take him. But winning the SB is the standard. One he will never reach.

Edited January 21 by Buffalo Boy

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

I guess my question is: WHY do people want Kubiak?

 

I am not even saying he’s bad. I’m just asking “why?” … what has he done to say he is a leader of an entire football team? 

Pedigree, Shanahan tree, a SB and possibly 2. His work with Quarterbacks. Been apart of winning programs so he’s seen it in SF when they went to the SB, the Broncos when they won the SB, and now possibly with the Seahawks 

 

Has been mentored by his father, Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, Norv Turner, and Kevin Stefanski and now Mike Macdonald. I mean those guys have all been successful HC and offensive minds . If the man can’t see what leadership is after all that then I don’t know what to tell anyone if he doesn’t work out with Josh Allen 

[Sojourner]

37 minutes ago, JPL7 said:

I wanted it two years ago to get Payton. I wanted it last year to get Vrabel. And Johnson would have been a nice consolation prize. It is late, but better late than never. 

After seeing the Bears improvement it is quite the wonder what he could have done with Josh. 

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Welcome, my friend!!!! Also, fantastic post.

Does @Alphadawg7 agree? 

[Buffalo Ballin]

20 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

?? All of Joe Brady's success, within the numbers, are related to Josh Allen and James Cook.

[BILLS55]

38 minutes ago, GG said:

The move was years in the making, is three years too late, but the firing optics are so bad that they’re leading to distortions of epic proportions to rehabilitate an average coach.

 

For the youngsters in this crowd, the TLDR version of this post is: Sean McDermott is Dick Jauron, but who was fortunate that he lucked out on coaching Josh Allen instead of Trent Edwards, and during a time when the rest of AFC East was in the gutter.

 

Sometimes, recency bias clouds what should have been a fairly straightforward decision, albeit three years too late.  It’s usually good practice to wait 24 hours to process the situation and come to a conclusion after more facts are known.  In this case, what would have been the reaction if McDermott was fired if Bills lost to Jax, or if he had been fired after yet another loss vs KC last year?   My guess is there would be much less consternation than now.   Which hints that people are more upset in the way he was fired than the rationale for the firing.  All of that is discussed in other threads and WGR calls.

 

But, if you take the clumsy firing and emotion out of it, the move had to be made for the team.

 

At the end of the day, McDermott is a fantastic person and a great leader of men, but is at best an average NFL coach.   I challenge anyone to prove that he’s a better coach than Dick Jauron, or at least argue that it was McDermott’s coaching mastery that guided 11-12 win seasons with Allen and Diggs, versus Jauron’s mediocrity with Losman and Trentative consistently winning 7 games in a division with peak Brady.   I’ll wait.

 

To be fair, there is a lot to commend the admiral job McDermott did to wash the stench that his predecessors left at One Bills Drive.  He brought discipline and accountability to the roster.  His team culture-building cannot be ignored in how the team rallied and battled through tough times.   His resilience and guidance after Damar’s near-death should be in every leadership textbook for decades.  His style and personality just meshed with Western New York, who adopted him as if he were their own. Nobody can and should take that away from him.

 

However, that’s not what he is here for.  He was here to bring a championship to the beleaguered city and franchise.  And on that front, he failed miserably. 

 

The real time to part ways was after 13 seconds.  That call was all on him.  It was his decision to kick deep and not squib.  It is his defense that has failed to make the critical stop in each excruciating playoff loss.   It’s not as simple as to point out his teams’ 0’fer in overtimes, it’s to ask why those games ended up in overtime in the first place.

 

In simplest terms, to win in football you need to have a stellar scheme and have players to execute the scheme to win consistently and bring home a championship. To me, if you have to sacrifice one of the two, I will always take the scheme, because it’s nearly impossible to always have the ideal players.  That’s why Wade Phillips was a defensive genius, because he adjusted the defense to the players he had.

 

Not so much with McDermott, whose scheme always needed a Chris Jones, or a healthy Star-type pivot in the front from which all other positions flow.   If you do not have an otherworldly DT who commands all the attention, the scheme falls apart and the defense gives up plays at most critical points.  So when you can’t field all stars in those positions, you call out the GM for the lack of talent in the positions.

 

By all means, it’s not a defense that sucks.  Quite the opposite, the complexity of the defense is great against dumb quarterbacks who will always make a mistake and turn it over.  That strategy is great to get you 9-10 easy wins, but tends to fail in the playoffs where you don’t see a lot of dumb quarterbacks.

 

McDermott’s defenses feast on turnovers, but has been dreadful when it needed a simple stop after 3-4 downs.  That’s been a consistent flavor in each playoff outing.  Even in the wins, how many were with a defensive stop vs a turnover?  How many times did the Bills beat the spread in a playoff game?   Only two wins in McDermott’s career were not nailbiters.  The team almost lost at home to friggin Skylar Thompson.  Is that championship caliber?

 

The biggest issue has been the defensive line, and we’ve all seen the sad statistic of the last sack by a DE in a playoff loss.  Sure, having All-Pros on the DL will add to the sacks, but scheme matters.  How many DL coaches has McDermott cycled through, with equally horrible results?  Maybe it’s not the players and coaches, but the scheme?   Why have free agent DL statistics nose dive when they hit Orchard Park?  Look up Poona Ford’s stats in his career vs one sorry year in a Bills uniform.  Are you telling me that a guy who’s a key player on a Superbowl contender couldn’t get a game day jersey in McDermott’s scheme?  Why do we need explanations that Greg Rousseau’s role is to contain rushing edge rather than rush the passer?  Which is more important?

 

McDermott’s defense never passed the eye test and has never been as dominant as the statistics showed.  He has a far greater grasp of secondary play than he does of the other positions that are also important.  That’s why it doesn’t matter who rotates in the front seven, but if there’s a hiccup among the back four – look out.

 

Compare that with what Kromer did with the OL that’s acknowledged as “elite.”    The elite stature may be a stretch, but they are very good, despite fielding two virtual castoffs from other teams.   Did the line collapse against a stout Steelers’ defense when two backups started?  Imagine the excuses we’d hear if the DL lost two stars for a game?

 

The other question to ask is why have the Bills never had the number one seed in the AFC during this playoff run?   We know why.  It’s always due to the inexplicable losses each October.  Yet, those are always washed away by the surging December wins.  The late season games’ record is undoubtedly a vindication of McDermott’s influence on the team to rise up to adversity.   And that’s wonderful if the October games didn’t count in the standings.  But they do, and you cannot wish away dumb losses to bad Atlanta, Miami, Denver, etc teams to lose the top spot.  Winning teams manage to get over the hump.

 

Maybe it’s just me nitpicking on the defense.  But that weakness is obvious to all inside and outside the team, and that’s why we need Superman Allen to come to the rescue. 

 

Think about it for a second.  Do you think there’s a little voice in Josh’s head that says, “Hey kid, you have to get a touchdown on this drive because you know the other team will just drive down the field and score.”  How many times has a good team NOT drive down the field and scored unless their stupid QB did not throw a pick?  Not too often.

 

Having that little voice in the back of your head matters.

 

So that’s that.  I love Sean McDermott as a man and as a coach and what he did for the franchise.  I also was a big Dick Jauron supporter because he was an awesome human being.   I just didn’t think he was the guy to bring a championship to the city.

Agree with this 100%. I would argue that Dick Juruan would have a similiar run if he had Josh. Josh would cover up for many medicore coaches. I do think MCD is above average but this is so overdue. It would have been insanity to not make a change. For the record, if i was running the show, Bean would have been fired Saturday on the plane ride back and then MCD on Sunday.

[Logic]

I was thinking that, in retrospect, I wish the Bills had moved on after 13 seconds.

 

HOWEVER…

 

Then I went back and looked at the coaches that were hired in that hiring cycle, and lemme tell ya…it was a pretty motley group. Only Kevin O’Connell remains.

 

So unless O’Connell had been the guy we chose to replace McDermott after 13 seconds, I’m not sure we’d have been any better off these last few seasons, and based on the list of names who were available, we almost certainly would’ve been WORSE off. 

[PonyBoy]

29 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Spent all that time typing just to put down a person you say you “love”, all the while comparing him to Dick Jauron. 

 

It's "not easy" to post on this board sometimes 😏

[Einstein]

9 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Pedigree, Shanahan tree, a SB and possibly 2. His work with Quarterbacks. Been apart of winning programs so he’s seen it in SF when they went to the SB, the Broncos when they won the SB, and now possibly with the Seahawks 

 

Has been mentored by his father, Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, Norv Turner, and Kevin Stefanski and now Mike Macdonald. I mean those guys have all been successful HC and offensive minds . If the man can’t see what leadership is after all that then I don’t know what to tell anyone if he doesn’t work out with Josh Allen 

 

I hope you’re right.

[Buffalo716]

25 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Well I mean if you think about it The Bills have a much better QB, much better RBs, much better TEs and much better Offensive line. The only thing the Seahawks are better is at Wideout on offense. 
 

The Seahawks offensive line was an absolute disaster last year and he’s made it competent, he’s made a journey man QB competent. He also doesn’t have to play call the same way in Seattle  that Brady has had to in Buffalo due to having a much better defense in Seattle. There are a lot of factors that go into it 

He's the only guy that would get me kind of excited

 

I like his pedigree... I like his ability to maximize players talent 

 

I have met Gary multiple times and talked ball and I think the apple didn't fall far from tree

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

He's the only guy that would get me kind of excited

 

I like his pedigree... I like his ability to maximize players talent 

 

I have met Gary multiple times and talked ball and I think the apple didn't fall far from tree

I also wonder if we can poach his brother from the 49ers somehow but I’m sure Klay wants to be a HC at some point to 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

50 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This has been bugging me. 

Why would Terry not do this LAST year, when Ben Johnson was available? Or the previous year when Harbaugh was available?

He does it now ... to get Klint Kubiak!?

 

Assuming the Bills do get Kubiak, for all we know, he could be better than Johnson or could be worse, nobody knows.   McDaniels looked great his first year in Miami, how'd that turn out?  Johnson could do the same and flop or could be great, one year doesn't tell the story.

 

As to why he didn't get rid of him last year, that makes me think the story in the Buff News yesterday by Lance has a lot of truth in it about McD wanting Beane to get him certain players and many didn't work out.  From the article that's been going on for years though, so what changed now, that could then be tied to the story in the Athletic about McD telling Terry and Beane the roster's NG both in this meeting and worse doing it through the press. 

 

Maybe last spring/summer McD wanted Beane to extend Groot, Bernard, and Benford.  Beane may have told him I can do that, but then no money for WR and McD said fine.  But then in October was mad that Beane didn't do anything and kind of went public with it.  Pegula seems to be old school and doing that crosses a line with him and that made it end now.

 

Will never know the true story, but piecing some of the stories together starts to make sense.

Edited January 21 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

I also wonder if we can poach his brother from the 49ers somehow but I’m sure Klay wants to be a HC at some point to 

Very true and that could be a stepping stone if he follows klint 

 

I also think he should be able to put together a good staff with a good mix of vet coaches and younger assistants who are hungry

 

He's utilized Yankee concepts which is a plus because we have a good tight end room