Magox Posted January 18 Posted January 18 With another heart-wrenching loss behind us, the Bills are entering a pivotal 2026 offseason. Between cap constraints, major free‑agent decisions, and unresolved questions in the front office, from my perspective this will be one of the most consequential roster‑building years of the Josh Allen era. Big decisions have to be made and not the roster-tinkering we have seen in years past. Where Things Stand Financially Right now, the Bills sit at roughly $3M over the cap, and that’s before we address a long list of free agents: OL: G David Edwards, C Connor McGovern Defense: S Jordan Poyer, ED Joey Bosa, ED AJ Epenesa, DT Larry Ogunjobi, LB Matt Milano, LB Shaq Thompson, CB Tre’Davious White Offense: WR Brandin Cooks There’s no way around it: big decisions are coming. Front Office & Coaching Outlook Brandon Beane Beane is firmly on the hot seat. His offseason comments about the WR room were a bad look in hindsight, even if the logic wasn’t entirely wrong. Between: Coleman not making the Year 2 leap Palmer’s injuries Curtis Samuel failing to deliver Zero WR help at the deadline Major investments on the D‑line not paying off …it’s clear the roster building has fallen short. McDermott’s subtle comments earlier in the year (especially ahead of the Jaguars game) felt like a coach sending a message. And we know from experience: when McDermott feels pressure, he doesn’t hesitate to clear obstacles. Sean McDermott & Joe Brady Both are safe. Brady called excellent games against Jacksonville and Denver, and McDermott put together a strong coaching season. Mistakes were limited, and the team fought through a mountain of adversity and lack of talent. Team Needs Even if the Bills decide to push chips forward, the roster has serious holes—especially on defense. Offense Interior OL (Edwards, McGovern both FAs) WR (the most glaring need) Contract year approaching for O’Cyrus Torrence Strengths: QB, tackles, RBs, TE room (Knox + Kincaid) Defense Needs at: 1 Safety 1 CB 1–2 Linebackers 2 Edge rushers 1 run‑stuffing DT This defense needs both personnel and scheme adjustments, especially in run fits. The disguised coverages were creative, but without pass rush or gap integrity, the ceiling is capped. Internal Free Agents to Re‑Sign A few moves feel obvious: Tre’Davious White – 2yr / ~$10M feels realistic for a hometown discount. Keeping him is a no‑brainer. Jordan Poyer – still has one good year left; ~$3M seems fair. Cooks – still separates and still has deep speed. Useful as WR2/WR3. Let Bosa and Ogunjobi walk. Milano vs. Shaq Thompson – you likely keep one, not both. Bernard’s regression and salary cap complicates this, but you hope injuries were the reason. Cap‑Saving Moves Cuts (About $19M created) Cut Curtis Samuel (pre‑June): +$6M Cut Josh Palmer (post‑June): +$5.3M Cut Tyler Bass: +$3.95M Cut Taylor Rapp (pre‑June): +$3M Cut DeWayne Carter: +$1.3M Restructure Candidates (Up to $43M if needed) Josh Allen: +$12.5M Dion Dawkins: +$11.3M Ed Oliver: +$8.8M Spencer Brown: +$10.6M Extension Candidate Dawson Knox – an extension frees ~$8.2M. And honestly, he proved his worth this season. Losing him would hurt more than many realize. I think he'd take a hometown discount on the extension. Total possible maneuvering room: ~ $70M You can tinker with these numbers here on the Overthecap https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills Philosophical Approach It’s time for the Bills to accept reality: Josh Allen turns 30 this year. His elite athleticism won’t last forever. He’ll still be great for a long time, but the physical peak is near its end. If Buffalo is going to push in the chips, this is the moment. Yes—structuring contracts aggressively means tough cuts 2–3 years from now. But that’s the price of chasing a championship window. What “All In” Should Look Like The Bills don’t need average starters—they need difference‑makers: At WR Either: Go get a true alpha WR1 (Jefferson via trade—massive cost or George Pickens), or Add two vertical separators with size (Alec Pierce + Romeo Doubs). Projected contracts: Pierce: ~$20M Doubs: ~$12M At EDGE Targets who fit the bill for sacks and consistent pressure: Jaelan Phillips Trey Hendrickson Odafe Oweh Cost for the top guys: $25–28M per year I think Buffalo needs to address both of these positions in a major way this offseason. No in between sort of moves. Final Word The Bills have holes, but they also have flexibility. With up to $70M in cap space available through logical moves, they absolutely can overhaul the WR room, add a real pass rusher, and keep core defensive veterans. The AFC is still wide open behind Kansas City and Baltimore. It's now or never. 12 2 4 14 Quote
Old Coot Posted January 18 Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, Magox said: With another heart-wrenching loss behind us, the Bills are entering a pivotal 2026 offseason. Between cap constraints, major free‑agent decisions, and unresolved questions in the front office, from my perspective this will be one of the most consequential roster‑building years of the Josh Allen era. Big decisions have to be made and not the roster-tinkering we have seen in years past. Where Things Stand Financially Right now, the Bills sit at roughly $3M over the cap, and that’s before we address a long list of free agents: OL: G David Edwards, C Connor McGovern Defense: S Jordan Poyer, ED Joey Bosa, ED AJ Epenesa, DT Larry Ogunjobi, LB Matt Milano, LB Shaq Thompson, CB Tre’Davious White Offense: WR Brandin Cooks There’s no way around it: big decisions are coming. Front Office & Coaching Outlook Brandon Beane Beane is firmly on the hot seat. His offseason comments about the WR room were a bad look in hindsight, even if the logic wasn’t entirely wrong. Between: Coleman not making the Year 2 leap Palmer’s injuries Curtis Samuel failing to deliver Zero WR help at the deadline Major investments on the D‑line not paying off …it’s clear the roster building has fallen short. McDermott’s subtle comments earlier in the year (especially ahead of the Jaguars game) felt like a coach sending a message. And we know from experience: when McDermott feels pressure, he doesn’t hesitate to clear obstacles. Sean McDermott & Joe Brady Both are safe. Brady called excellent games against Jacksonville and Denver, and McDermott put together a strong coaching season. Mistakes were limited, and the team fought through a mountain of adversity and lack of talent. Team Needs Even if the Bills decide to push chips forward, the roster has serious holes—especially on defense. Offense Interior OL (Edwards, McGovern both FAs) WR (the most glaring need) Contract year approaching for O’Cyrus Torrence Strengths: QB, tackles, RBs, TE room (Knox + Kincaid) Defense Needs at: 1 Safety 1 CB 1–2 Linebackers 2 Edge rushers 1 run‑stuffing DT This defense needs both personnel and scheme adjustments, especially in run fits. The disguised coverages were creative, but without pass rush or gap integrity, the ceiling is capped. Internal Free Agents to Re‑Sign A few moves feel obvious: Tre’Davious White – 2yr / ~$10M feels realistic for a hometown discount. Keeping him is a no‑brainer. Jordan Poyer – still has one good year left; ~$3M seems fair. Cooks – still separates and still has deep speed. Useful as WR2/WR3. Let Bosa and Ogunjobi walk. Milano vs. Shaq Thompson – you likely keep one, not both. Bernard’s regression and salary cap complicates this, but you hope injuries were the reason. Cap‑Saving Moves Cuts (About $19M created) Cut Curtis Samuel (pre‑June): +$6M Cut Josh Palmer (post‑June): +$5.3M Cut Tyler Bass: +$3.95M Cut Taylor Rapp (pre‑June): +$3M Cut DeWayne Carter: +$1.3M Restructure Candidates (Up to $43M if needed) Josh Allen: +$12.5M Dion Dawkins: +$11.3M Ed Oliver: +$8.8M Spencer Brown: +$10.6M Extension Candidate Dawson Knox – an extension frees ~$8.2M. And honestly, he proved his worth this season. Losing him would hurt more than many realize. I think he'd take a hometown discount on the extension. Total possible maneuvering room: ~ $70M You can tinker with these numbers here on the Overthecap https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills Philosophical Approach It’s time for the Bills to accept reality: Josh Allen turns 30 this year. His elite athleticism won’t last forever. He’ll still be great for a long time, but the physical peak is near its end. If Buffalo is going to push in the chips, this is the moment. Yes—structuring contracts aggressively means tough cuts 2–3 years from now. But that’s the price of chasing a championship window. What “All In” Should Look Like The Bills don’t need average starters—they need difference‑makers: At WR Either: Go get a true alpha WR1 (Jefferson via trade—massive cost or George Pickens), or Add two vertical separators with size (Alec Pierce + Romeo Doubs). Projected contracts: Pierce: ~$20M Doubs: ~$12M At EDGE Targets who fit the bill for sacks and consistent pressure: Jaelan Phillips Trey Hendrickson Odafe Oweh Cost for the top guys: $25–28M per year I think Buffalo needs to address both of these positions in a major way this offseason. No in between sort of moves. Final Word The Bills have holes, but they also have flexibility. With up to $70M in cap space available through logical moves, they absolutely can overhaul the WR room, add a real pass rusher, and keep core defensive veterans. The AFC is still wide open behind Kansas City and Baltimore. It's now or never. Thanks for this. It's pretty good. I agree with most of it -- one significant difference -- I'd extend Bosa. I think he's done enough to earn it. 1 6 1 6 Quote
ColoradoBills Posted January 18 Posted January 18 I think I'll "lay down and bleed awhile, then rise up to fight again". The team and the fans need a break IMO. 1 1 2 1 Quote
VW82 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 (edited) Great summary but I disagree with the conclusion. Going ALL IN is how we got into this mess in the first place. Josh isn't going to turn into a pumpkin in 2-3 years so why should the team act like he will? Fans like to act as if one big time player would've made all the difference. The reality is more like we just didn't have enough health or key guys from multiple positions make enough cumulative plays on both sides of the ball. NFL isn't NBA. You need a team, and we're about to be many holes away from even getting back to the level of highly competent team taking into account all the FAs and aging vets. We'll need to create more cap space to deal that, but trading away our future and throwing away some of Josh's age 32-35 seasons isn't something this org should want any part of. Edited January 18 by VW82 1 2 Quote
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 What does trading Dion do to the cap? Ryan VanDemark has looked solid at LT and I think we are going to see a decline in Dion’s play. Sell high. Package him and our first to move up into the top 10 in the first round and grab a real difference maker on a rookie deal. 4 6 Quote
Dr.Sack Posted January 18 Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: What does trading Dion do to the cap? Ryan VanDemark has looked solid at LT and I think we are going to see a decline in Dion’s play. Sell high. Package him and our first to move up into the top 10 in the first round and grab a real difference maker on a rookie deal. This is a solid idea. I don’t think they do it. 3 1 3 Quote
Since1981 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, VW82 said: We'll need to create more cap space to deal that, but trading away our future Stop. Please do trade the future. Win a SB and then let’s talk. Josh has limited yrs left. Who’s kidding who?! I have limited years left. Folks too. One subtle thing. Josh is friends with Dawson, Knox. We may not have a choice in some spots. 1 Quote
Blank Stare Posted January 18 Posted January 18 34 minutes ago, Old Coot said: Thanks for this. It's pretty good. I agree with most of it -- one significant difference -- I'd extend Bosa. I think he's done enough to earn it. I’d extend Epenesa before I’d extend Bosa and I don’t want to extend Epenesa either. We’re already devoting cap space via void years to Bosa to not be here. Let’s not make it worse. Completely disappeared in both playoff games. 2 Quote
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: This is a solid idea. I don’t think they do it. That’s why they need a new GM. Someone who isn’t personally invested in any of these players and will be objective. Also give Sean a year to prove he deserves the job. 1 Quote
Billever76 Posted January 18 Posted January 18 I’m on the clean house and start in a fresh new direction entering the new stadium and the 2nd half of Allen’s career..we cannot allow McDermott bean to be waste all of Allen’s career! We gave McDermott and bean more than enough time to produce a superbowl with Josh Allen as our QB…THEY FAILED bc they focused on the wrong side of the ball 1 1 Quote
Dr.Sack Posted January 18 Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: That’s why they need a new GM. Someone who isn’t personally invested in any of these players and will be objective. Also give Sean a year to prove he deserves the job. McDermott and Beane are a package deal, no? Quote
Rubes Posted January 18 Posted January 18 (edited) I'm not too worried about cap space, there's plenty they can do to create it if needed. Milano played well down the stretch, but I can't see him being extended. I think they keep Shaq and move Bernard to the weak side to replace Milano. It's his more natural position anyway. Then draft a Mike LB on Day 2. I do like the idea of keeping Cooks if they can. The guy still has elite speed, Josh just needs more time to get on the same page with him. Too many times he over- or under-threw him. I could see him as an effective WR3 if they can get a strong WR1 on board. I like the idea of keeping Tre if they can as CB3 once Max takes over. Depth due to injuries killed us this year, again. Tre would be a nice insurance policy if he's cheap enough. Where I'm most concerned is the DL. Bosa will be gone. Epenesa will likely be gone. Beane hasn't figured this one out in FA or the draft so far, I don't have much confidence he will this time. Edited January 18 by Rubes 3 2 Quote
NoSaint Posted January 18 Posted January 18 33 minutes ago, VW82 said: Great summary but I disagree with the conclusion. Going ALL IN is how we got into this mess in the first place. Josh isn't going to turn into a pumpkin in 2-3 years so why should the team act like he will? Fans like to act as if one big time player would've made all the difference. The reality is more like we just didn't have enough health or key guys from multiple positions make enough cumulative plays on both sides of the ball. NFL isn't NBA. You need a team, and we're about to be many holes away from even getting back to the level of highly competent team taking into account all the FAs and aging vets. We'll need to create more cap space to deal that, but trading away our future and throwing away some of Josh's age 32-35 seasons isn't something this org should want any part of. we’ve never gone all in. 1 1 1 Quote
Magox Posted January 18 Author Posted January 18 1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said: I think I'll "lay down and bleed awhile, then rise up to fight again". The team and the fans need a break IMO. I hear ya, but I am a looking forward sort of dude and I find this to be therapeutic lol 53 minutes ago, VW82 said: Great summary but I disagree with the conclusion. Going ALL IN is how we got into this mess in the first place. Josh isn't going to turn into a pumpkin in 2-3 years so why should the team act like he will? Fans like to act as if one big time player would've made all the difference. The reality is more like we just didn't have enough health or key guys from multiple positions make enough cumulative plays on both sides of the ball. NFL isn't NBA. You need a team, and we're about to be many holes away from even getting back to the level of highly competent team taking into account all the FAs and aging vets. We'll need to create more cap space to deal that, but trading away our future and throwing away some of Josh's age 32-35 seasons isn't something this org should want any part of. I don't think we've gone all in. And I definitely don't believe Josh will be a "pumpkin" in a few years. What I'm saying is that he is probably from here on out on the downslide from a physical athletic standpoint and I'd like to push all the chips in while he's at that stage. Also, it is very possible that if the Bills draft well that they wouldn't lose a step even 2-3 years from now if they did have to make some difficult roster cuts. 45 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: What does trading Dion do to the cap? Ryan VanDemark has looked solid at LT and I think we are going to see a decline in Dion’s play. Sell high. Package him and our first to move up into the top 10 in the first round and grab a real difference maker on a rookie deal. I don't see any possible scenario where the Bills move on from Dion Dawkins. Aside from Josh Allen he is the heart and soul of this team. But to answer your question he would free up about $15.5M 35 minutes ago, Blank Stare said: I’d extend Epenesa before I’d extend Bosa and I don’t want to extend Epenesa either. We’re already devoting cap space via void years to Bosa to not be here. Let’s not make it worse. Completely disappeared in both playoff games. Bosa definitely took a backseat from his first half of the year play. I'd only consider bringing him back in if he were to accept a $7-$8M a year role as a backup Edge rusher. Epenesa is really good with those batted passes but I wouldn't bring him back only unless it was as depth and he accepted somewhere around $5M a year. 31 minutes ago, Billever76 said: I’m on the clean house and start in a fresh new direction entering the new stadium and the 2nd half of Allen’s career..we cannot allow McDermott bean to be waste all of Allen’s career! We gave McDermott and bean more than enough time to produce a superbowl with Josh Allen as our QB…THEY FAILED bc they focused on the wrong side of the ball I think McDermott had a very good year this year, I don't see how you can blame him for the lack of talent at the pass rushing and WR spots. His coaching decisions were solid this year and he's become very aggressive with the team and the coaches play calling. My biggest quibble with him would be how did we become so bad with our run defense scheme. 32 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: McDermott and Beane are a package deal, no? I don't think so. Maybe Pegula will see it that way, but I was reading in between the lines, specially before the Jags game and I definitely saw McDermott distancing himself from Beane and threw a lot of indirect shade his way. Quote
Captain Murica Posted January 18 Posted January 18 34 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said: McDermott and Beane are a package deal, no? I believe it’s been stated McDermott answers directly to Pegula. McDermott was also here before Beane. That being said, I think McDermott has been taking subtle shots at Beane’s short comings as of late. I mean, look how he glazed Jacoby Meyers before the jags game and how he transformed that offense or how he expressed how annoyed he was about releasing Jamarcus Ingram. Even when asked by the media if he thought this was a championship roster, he stated I love this team and players. Whereas that doofus Beane without hesitation stating it was a SB contending roster. 1 Quote
BillsVet Posted January 18 Posted January 18 McD working within that organizational structure is not just as Buffalo's HC. He's the architect of a philosophy which Beane supports (poorly I would add) and this is now a major weaknesses. Because it's clear being on the same page philosophically is why they never do a true assessment for how they lose in the Divisional/Championship Game. It's how you get off-seasons of all or mostly defense with poor WR signings. I'd like to see Beane fired, a new GM hired and the reporting structure changed. That is, McD would report to a new GM and if that meant McD quits, so be it. He's not earned the right to continue charting the path forward for the Buffalo Bills - even without Beane. 2 3 Quote
IYKYK Posted January 18 Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Magox said: With another heart-wrenching loss behind us, the Bills are entering a pivotal 2026 offseason. Between cap constraints, major free‑agent decisions, and unresolved questions in the front office, from my perspective this will be one of the most consequential roster‑building years of the Josh Allen era. Big decisions have to be made and not the roster-tinkering we have seen in years past. Where Things Stand Financially Right now, the Bills sit at roughly $3M over the cap, and that’s before we address a long list of free agents: OL: G David Edwards, C Connor McGovern Defense: S Jordan Poyer, ED Joey Bosa, ED AJ Epenesa, DT Larry Ogunjobi, LB Matt Milano, LB Shaq Thompson, CB Tre’Davious White Offense: WR Brandin Cooks There’s no way around it: big decisions are coming. Front Office & Coaching Outlook Brandon Beane Beane is firmly on the hot seat. His offseason comments about the WR room were a bad look in hindsight, even if the logic wasn’t entirely wrong. Between: Coleman not making the Year 2 leap Palmer’s injuries Curtis Samuel failing to deliver Zero WR help at the deadline Major investments on the D‑line not paying off …it’s clear the roster building has fallen short. McDermott’s subtle comments earlier in the year (especially ahead of the Jaguars game) felt like a coach sending a message. And we know from experience: when McDermott feels pressure, he doesn’t hesitate to clear obstacles. Sean McDermott & Joe Brady Both are safe. Brady called excellent games against Jacksonville and Denver, and McDermott put together a strong coaching season. Mistakes were limited, and the team fought through a mountain of adversity and lack of talent. Team Needs Even if the Bills decide to push chips forward, the roster has serious holes—especially on defense. Offense Interior OL (Edwards, McGovern both FAs) WR (the most glaring need) Contract year approaching for O’Cyrus Torrence Strengths: QB, tackles, RBs, TE room (Knox + Kincaid) Defense Needs at: 1 Safety 1 CB 1–2 Linebackers 2 Edge rushers 1 run‑stuffing DT This defense needs both personnel and scheme adjustments, especially in run fits. The disguised coverages were creative, but without pass rush or gap integrity, the ceiling is capped. Internal Free Agents to Re‑Sign A few moves feel obvious: Tre’Davious White – 2yr / ~$10M feels realistic for a hometown discount. Keeping him is a no‑brainer. Jordan Poyer – still has one good year left; ~$3M seems fair. Cooks – still separates and still has deep speed. Useful as WR2/WR3. Let Bosa and Ogunjobi walk. Milano vs. Shaq Thompson – you likely keep one, not both. Bernard’s regression and salary cap complicates this, but you hope injuries were the reason. Cap‑Saving Moves Cuts (About $19M created) Cut Curtis Samuel (pre‑June): +$6M Cut Josh Palmer (post‑June): +$5.3M Cut Tyler Bass: +$3.95M Cut Taylor Rapp (pre‑June): +$3M Cut DeWayne Carter: +$1.3M Restructure Candidates (Up to $43M if needed) Josh Allen: +$12.5M Dion Dawkins: +$11.3M Ed Oliver: +$8.8M Spencer Brown: +$10.6M Extension Candidate Dawson Knox – an extension frees ~$8.2M. And honestly, he proved his worth this season. Losing him would hurt more than many realize. I think he'd take a hometown discount on the extension. Total possible maneuvering room: ~ $70M You can tinker with these numbers here on the Overthecap https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills Philosophical Approach It’s time for the Bills to accept reality: Josh Allen turns 30 this year. His elite athleticism won’t last forever. He’ll still be great for a long time, but the physical peak is near its end. If Buffalo is going to push in the chips, this is the moment. Yes—structuring contracts aggressively means tough cuts 2–3 years from now. But that’s the price of chasing a championship window. What “All In” Should Look Like The Bills don’t need average starters—they need difference‑makers: At WR Either: Go get a true alpha WR1 (Jefferson via trade—massive cost or George Pickens), or Add two vertical separators with size (Alec Pierce + Romeo Doubs). Projected contracts: Pierce: ~$20M Doubs: ~$12M At EDGE Targets who fit the bill for sacks and consistent pressure: Jaelan Phillips Trey Hendrickson Odafe Oweh Cost for the top guys: $25–28M per year I think Buffalo needs to address both of these positions in a major way this offseason. No in between sort of moves. Final Word The Bills have holes, but they also have flexibility. With up to $70M in cap space available through logical moves, they absolutely can overhaul the WR room, add a real pass rusher, and keep core defensive veterans. The AFC is still wide open behind Kansas City and Baltimore. It's now or never. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it sounds a lot like lets run it back next year. The thought we will be able to sign a top tier free agent doesn't seem feasible with our cap situation and 2/5 of our OL heading for FA. i hope I'm wrong but i think they will plan on running it back next year because of the injuries we had this year. I'm not aying I agree with this, but I think we are going to be in cap hell the next couple of years. Great job on your write up though! Top notch!👍 Quote
Bills!Win! Posted January 18 Posted January 18 The day we signed Palmer as our splash signing I knew we were not making it far into the playoffs. Do better 3 Quote
Jerboski Posted January 18 Posted January 18 They cannot afford to not go big this offseason I don’t care if it cost you draft capital or puts you in cap he’ll in two years, the window is short.. now is the time period 2 1 1 Quote
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