Billy Claude Posted January 17 Posted January 17 19 hours ago, mannc said: There are nine vacancies and head coaches have to come from somewhere. And there is proof of concept with retreads—Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Marv Levy, Vrabel, etc. Theoretically, you have a higher floor with a guy who has been a HC before. My sense is that former HC hires have a higher success rate than coordinators who have no prior HC experience, but I could well be wrong. What is perplexing is guys who had no or very limited success the first time getting second and sometimes third chances… Mike Mularkey -- failure in Buffalo, abject failure in Jacksonville and still got 2.5 years in Tennesee. Anyway -- it appears new hires are statistically more successful. Taking all hires from 2010 to 2021 inclusive: 56 hires without NFL head coaching experience or only experience as interim head coach: median yrs with team -- 4 average yrs with team 3.9 more than 3 yrs with team 50% (28/56) more than 4 yrs with team 32% (18/56) 22 hires with previous NFL head coaching experience median yrs with team -- 3 average yrs with team 3.5 more than 3 yrs with team 41% (9/22) more than 4 yrs with team 14% (3/22) The data is taken from AI so there might be small errors but it appears that there is a tendency for new hires to be slightly more successful. 1 1 Quote
SoTier Posted January 17 Posted January 17 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Billy Claude said: Mike Mularkey -- failure in Buffalo, abject failure in Jacksonville and still got 2.5 years in Tennesee. Anyway -- it appears new hires are statistically more successful. Taking all hires from 2010 to 2021 inclusive: 56 hires without NFL head coaching experience or only experience as interim head coach: median yrs with team -- 4 average yrs with team 3.9 more than 3 yrs with team 50% (28/56) more than 4 yrs with team 32% (18/56) 22 hires with previous NFL head coaching experience median yrs with team -- 3 average yrs with team 3.5 more than 3 yrs with team 41% (9/22) more than 4 yrs with team 14% (3/22) The data is taken from AI so there might be small errors but it appears that there is a tendency for new hires to be slightly more successful. I think a big factor in any HC's success is the organization which hires him, and that may skew the results because poor organizations swap out their coaches every few years whereas good organizations only show up once or twice in a decade. Poor organizations can make even good coaches look bad. I think the Bills are perfect example of this. Between 2010 and 2018, under Russ Brandon's regime, the Bills were a poor organization which put maximizing profits above winning football games. During that time, the Bills HC's were: Chan Gailey (3 seasons), Doug Marrone (2 seasons), Rex Ryan (1+ seasons), Anthony Lynn (<1), and Sean McDermott (2017-2018). Pegula fired Brandon and put Beane in charge after the 2018 draft, and the Bills organization reset its priorities. If Brandon had stayed the boss of the Bills, it's likely that McDermott would have been long gone. Edited January 17 by SoTier 1 Quote
mannc Posted January 17 Posted January 17 57 minutes ago, Billy Claude said: Mike Mularkey -- failure in Buffalo, abject failure in Jacksonville and still got 2.5 years in Tennesee. Anyway -- it appears new hires are statistically more successful. Taking all hires from 2010 to 2021 inclusive: 56 hires without NFL head coaching experience or only experience as interim head coach: median yrs with team -- 4 average yrs with team 3.9 more than 3 yrs with team 50% (28/56) more than 4 yrs with team 32% (18/56) 22 hires with previous NFL head coaching experience median yrs with team -- 3 average yrs with team 3.5 more than 3 yrs with team 41% (9/22) more than 4 yrs with team 14% (3/22) The data is taken from AI so there might be small errors but it appears that there is a tendency for new hires to be slightly more successful. You are measuring success by longevity with the team that hires them? Why not by winning percentage? Or even total games won with the hiring team? Quote
frostbitmic Posted January 17 Posted January 17 I get the feeling that at this time next year Steelers fans will rue the day that Tomlin walked away, got fired, whatever. To win the AFC North with ancient Aaron as his QB is pretty amazing. Since Roethlisberger retired his QB room has been laughable ... Wilson, Trubisky, failed rookie, Rudolph ... just awful. Without Tomlin I could see their FAs walking away and few of note signing with them. I think they'll be bad for awhile. 1 1 Quote
Billy Claude Posted January 17 Posted January 17 (edited) 46 minutes ago, mannc said: You are measuring success by longevity with the team that hires them? Why not by winning percentage? Or even total games won with the hiring team? Obviously there is no perfect measure of whether a coach is successful or not. I didn't use winning percentage because it was a slightly more complicated to extract but also it doesn't take into account expectations for the team. For exampe, the Steeler's were 8-8 the year before Tomlin took over, a 6-10 first season would have been regarded as a failure for Tomlin but the same 6-10 would have been a regarded as a success for Robert Saleh. On the other hand, longevity with the team tells measures whether the team thought that the coach was doing at least an adequate job. This is also not a perfect measure as it depends on the patience of the team owner and why the coach left. For example, Jim Harbaugh only lasted 4 years with the 49ers but I think almost everybody would regard it as a very successful hire. Edited January 17 by Billy Claude Quote
SinceThe70s Posted January 17 Posted January 17 23 hours ago, TheFunPolice said: Saleh is under rated. His Jets defenses were always pretty good. The Jets jumped the gun firing him midseason IMO. He might fall under the category of great coordinator, bad head coach. In spite of the Jets defense he led he was a train wreck as HC. 1 1 Quote
Mister Defense Posted January 17 Author Posted January 17 1 hour ago, frostbitmic said: I get the feeling that at this time next year Steelers fans will rue the day that Tomlin walked away, got fired, whatever. To win the AFC North with ancient Aaron as his QB is pretty amazing. Since Roethlisberger retired his QB room has been laughable ... Wilson, Trubisky, failed rookie, Rudolph ... just awful. Without Tomlin I could see their FAs walking away and few of note signing with them. I think they'll be bad for awhile. I remember laughing the day they signed Rodgers. And thinking not how inept their front office has been, though it was, but how clueless and/or unconcerned Tomlin was when it came to offense and winning big in the NFL. And that he was likely just a complacent coach satisfied with just treading water, year after year, and picking up huge paychecks. Yes, he is not the GM, but if you have been a head coach for a team for 18 years you have a lot of power over personnel decisions including the quarterback. Think of top head coaches in NFL history and how adamant they would have been against bringing in a 42 year quarterback who will not stand in the pocket, but throws the ball away over and over, and who is an AWFUL leader--just go look at his last game! I assume it has already been done, but I am looking forward to watching a video of his great leadership skills in his last game ever--so many choices to pull out, in his body language, actual language, and performance. We will see, but I predict you are wrong--that overall their fan base will never rue that day, but always be grateful it finally happened. Quote
frostbitmic Posted January 17 Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Mister Defense said: I remember laughing the day they signed Rodgers. And thinking not how inept their front office has been, though it was, but how clueless and/or unconcerned Tomlin was when it came to offense and winning big in the NFL. And that he was likely just a complacent coach satisfied with just treading water, year after year, and picking up huge paychecks. Yes, he is not the GM, but if you have been a head coach for a team for 18 years you have a lot of power over personnel decisions including the quarterback. Think of top head coaches in NFL history and how adamant they would have been against bringing in a 42 year quarterback who will not stand in the pocket, but throws the ball away over and over, and who is an AWFUL leader--just go look at his last game! I assume it has already been done, but I am looking forward to watching a video of his great leadership skills in his last game ever--so many choices to pull out, in his body language, actual language, and performance. We will see, but I predict you are wrong--that overall their fan base will never rue that day, but always be grateful it finally happened. Yeah, like everything, we'll see ... I do agree with you about the Offensive side of the ball. Arthur Smith was uninspiring and Matt Canada before him was awful. I don't think he's done as a HC in this league though, especially since retreads are the popular way to go. 1 Quote
SoTier Posted January 17 Posted January 17 (edited) 4 hours ago, frostbitmic said: I get the feeling that at this time next year Steelers fans will rue the day that Tomlin walked away, got fired, whatever. To win the AFC North with ancient Aaron as his QB is pretty amazing. Since Roethlisberger retired his QB room has been laughable ... Wilson, Trubisky, failed rookie, Rudolph ... just awful. Without Tomlin I could see their FAs walking away and few of note signing with them. I think they'll be bad for awhile. I think that the last 3 or 4 years of Roethlisberger's career, he was a shadow of himself, so add a few more years to that laughable QB room. The problem hasn't been that the Steelers' were "too good" to be in a position to draft a QB; it's that Steelers' management has been unwilling to spend the resources necessary to acquire a decent QB since they drafted Roethlisberger. They have never traded up to draft a first round QB in the 2000s. I don't know if they tried to trade for Stafford or Goff or if they went sniffing around to acquire Mayfield or Darnold by trade or free agency. I'm not sure who runs player personnel for the Steelers, but whoever it is has failed miserably. Edited January 17 by SoTier 1 Quote
Since1981 Posted January 17 Posted January 17 Bears Ben Johnson Patriots Mike Vrabel …this success is exaggerating the need to “change things up” with a HC. Copycat league. Quote
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