Bills 2026 Cap Situation

[GASabresIUFan]

I saw this article on Spotrac.com and I thought it would be worth a discussion considering how many threads we are already seeing about going after this guy (Mack for example) or that guy (Addison) etc...  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/3213/2026-financials-buffalo-bills

 

Quote

Buffalo enters 2026 with around $4M of initial cap space, against an estimated $304M league threshold. This includes a $56.4M figure for QB Josh Allen, and 6 contracts set to void in the coming weeks (which accounts for $32M).

 

Also time to exercise the 5th year option on Kincaid (approx 8.8 million).  Biggest omission is discussion of an extension for Torrence especially in light of FAs McGovern and Edwards.

 

The Bills are going to have to find away to create an additional 60 mill in cap to be able to afford any free agents and somehow keep of the Oline intact (if that is the goal).  Personally I believe at least one of the McGovern or Edwards (or possibly both) will be allowed to walk in favor of Anderson, SVPG and/or Grable.  I trust Kromer to make good decisions on the line.  

 

I also don't want Beane to spend another nickel on a FA WR, unless it's keeping Cooks on a bargain deal.  With Palmer, Coleman and Shakir already under contract for next season, it's time to bring in youth and SPEED at the position in the draft.

 

Of the UFAs I can see Wishnowsky, White, Thompson, Cooks, Gilliam and Poyer returning.  Milano, Edwards, AJE, Trubisky and McGovern are maybes.  I don't see D Jones, Bosa, Prater, Ogunjobi or Hamlin returning.   Not sure I care whether or not Cam Lewis or Franklin return.  

 

 

Edited January 15 by GASabresIUFan

[thenorthremembers]

There are a lot of moves to consider to make room.    Will likely cut Samuel right away.   Then have to restructure or cut Taron Johnson, and Taylor Rapp.   As something that could become a bit of a hot topic I think they really have to revisit Ed Oliver's contract.    I dont think they can continue to pay him what he has coming up given the amount of games he has missed.     They can get to 40 million under the cap quite quickly.

Edited January 15 by thenorthremembers

[Pecker]

While I like both Dawkins and Spencer brown, we did quite well when both missed the Steelers game.  Dawkins is getting older as well.  And just Like Oliver, Both have huge cap hits, and huge cap savings, if cut or traded.  Both seemingly have capable and affordable backups, and a first round T is usually a safe bet in the draft.  
 

it’s plausible that we reluctantly move one of those guys for the cap savings. 

I’ve also been impressed with Alec Anderson and believe he could start.

 

a knox restructure seems likely, I’d consider cutting Palmer that saves about 5.5 mil. 

Edited January 15 by Pecker

[GASabresIUFan]

3 hours ago, ***** said:

While I like both Dawkins and Spencer brown, we did quite well when both missed the Steelers game.  Dawkins is getting older as well.  And just Like Oliver, Both have huge cap hits, and huge cap savings, if cut or traded.  Both seemingly have capable and affordable backups, and a first round T is usually a safe bet in the draft.  
 

it’s plausible that we reluctantly move one of those guys for the cap savings. 

I’ve also been impressed with Alec Anderson and believe he could start.

 

a knox restructure seems likely, I’d consider cutting Palmer that saves about 5.5 mil. 

Brown isn’t being cut.  His dead cap is 29 mill if cut vs 19 mill if playing.  
 

Dawkins is a possible restructure.  His dead cap is 22 mill vs a 25 mill cap hit if playing.  His base is 15+ mill, and moving that to a bonus could save 10 mill easy.  An Oliver restructure would yield a similar amount.  

The change on the OL is SVPG in for McGovern.  Re-signing McGovern likely costs 15 mill+.  His dead cap is already 4.8 mill for a void year.  SVPG only makes 1.1.  Grable or Anderson in for Edwards probably saves 7.5 to 10 million.  
 

Knox is also a possible huge savings.  Cutting Knox saves 10 million.  Most of that can be realized by a simple restructure of moving 10 mill salary to a bonus.

 

Edited January 15 by GASabresIUFan

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

I also don't want Beane to spend another nickel on a FA WR, unless it's keeping Cooks on a bargain deal.  With Palmer, Coleman and Shakir already under contract for next season, it's time to bring in youth and SPEED at the position in the draft.

 

You may not want Beane to spend on a FA WR but I think the majority of people on this board do.  And more importantly I believe Beane has gotten the message and his talk of trading for Waddle indicate Beane is going to aggressively attack the WR room this offseason.

 

Beane has to figure out the finances.  Most teams can handle a QB contract and a reasonable amount to a WR1.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

You may not want Beane to spend on a FA WR but I think the majority of people on this board do.  And more importantly I believe Beane has gotten the message and his talk of trading for Waddle indicate Beane is going to aggressively attack the WR room this offseason.

 

Beane has to figure out the finances.  Most teams can handle a QB contract and a reasonable amount to a WR1.

This team needs defense at all levels.  How has “investing” in FA WRs worked out recently - Palmer, Samuels, Moore etc…..?  

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This team needs defense at all levels.  How has “investing” in FA WRs worked out recently - Palmer, Samuels, Moore etc…..?  

Just because some previous attempts at FA WRs didn't work doesn't mean you quit trying. 

 

It's an important position and you keep trying until you get it right.

[Victory Formation]

Give me Quay Walker and Jordan Addison please..

 

EDIT: Or Romeo Doubs....

Edited January 15 by Victory Formation

[Success]

They don't have to spend big anywhere - except WR.  They can clear enough w/ cuts & restructures to finally get someone to replace Diggs.

 

We have a lot of guys on D coming back from injury, and most of the rest of the offense is pretty set.  We can fill any other needs through the draft.

 

But they have to find money, and spend on a WR.  Josh will be 30, and we need a guy he can have that chemistry with for the next 3-4 years.

 

[gonzo1105]

Bass, Rapp, Samuel are for sure getting cut in my opinion. Knox something is getting done there whether it’s extension , paycut, or release. I’d probably say extension is likely that lowers his cap significantly. 
 

I think both McGovern and Edwards are about to bank in Free Agency either with the Bills or someone else. Alec Anderson is taking one of those spots and either a draft pick or SVPG will be starting at the other in my opinion. 
 

Taron Johnson is the big one. In my opinion they will ask him to take a paycut this offseason , if he refuses that situation will get interesting. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I saw this article on Spotrac.com and I thought it would be worth a discussion considering how many threads we are already seeing about going after this guy (Mack for example) or that guy (Addison) etc...  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/3213/2026-financials-buffalo-bills

 

 

Also time to exercise the 5th year option on Kincaid (approx 8.8 million).  Biggest omission is discussion of an extension for Torrence especially in light of FAs McGovern and Edwards.

 

The Bills are going to have to find away to create an additional 60 mill in cap to be able to afford any free agents and somehow keep of the Oline intact (if that is the goal).  Personally I believe at least one of the McGovern or Edwards (or possibly both) will be allowed to walk in favor of Anderson, SVPG and/or Grable.  I trust Kromer to make good decisions on the line.  

 

I also don't want Beane to spend another nickel on a FA WR, unless it's keeping Cooks on a bargain deal.  With Palmer, Coleman and Shakir already under contract for next season, it's time to bring in youth and SPEED at the position in the draft.

 

Of the UFAs I can see Wishnowsky, White, Thompson, Cooks, Gilliam and Poyer returning.  Milano, Edwards, AJE, Trubisky and McGovern are maybes.  I don't see D Jones, Bosa, Prater, Ogunjobi or Hamlin returning.   Not sure I care whether or not Cam Lewis or Franklin return.  

 

 

Im sorry but why do they need $60M of cap space?!? I think we are confusing AAV with cap space. We were looking at WRs the other day. Jefferson for example makes $35M a year and has a $15M cap hit. The Bills will likely be $40Mish under the cap and won’t lose much (maybe one lineman if it makes sense). If they get to $40M they could pretty much bring everyone they want back AND add a star like George Pickens. 

Edited January 15 by Kirby Jackson

[bills6969]

Can always just restructure Allen’s deal and kick the can down the road

[NavyBillsFan]

I'm sure Beane has planned to draft 5 full rounds of WR's and then extending as many C rated players he drafted in the past as he can.  Right after he rapes the Panthers FA stream......  At this point with Beane, I wouldnt let him flush a toilet without micromanagement.  Yeah, I know, he drafted Josh....  Flame on all....  Stop me where Im wrong...

[Victory Formation]

59 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Bass, Rapp, Samuel are for sure getting cut in my opinion. Knox something is getting done there whether it’s extension , paycut, or release. I’d probably say extension is likely that lowers his cap significantly. 
 

I think both McGovern and Edwards are about to bank in Free Agency either with the Bills or someone else. Alec Anderson is taking one of those spots and either a draft pick or SVPG will be starting at the other in my opinion. 
 

Taron Johnson is the big one. In my opinion they will ask him to take a paycut this offseason , if he refuses that situation will get interesting. 

I agree! Great post!..

[GASabresIUFan]

58 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Im sorry but why do they need $60M of cap space?!? I think we are confusing AAV with cap space. We were looking at WRs the other day. Jefferson for example makes $35M a year and has a $15M cap hit. The Bills will likely be $40Mish under the cap and won’t lose much (maybe one lineman if it makes sense). If they get to $40M they could pretty much bring everyone they want back AND add a star like George Pickens. 

Because we only have 36 players under contract.  We need to sign or acquire starters at all levels of the defense, including a DT, DE, a LB, and S.  If they want to keep McGovern and or Edwards on the OL, that alone could cost 20 million in cap space.  You also are going to lose some cap for bonuses from this season, need 7 mill for draft picks and 7.5 to 10 million for operating space and the practice squad.   

[appoo]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Brown isn’t being cut.  His dead cap is 29 mill if cut vs 19 mill if playing.  
 

Dawkins is a possible restructure.  His dead cap is 22 mill vs a 25 mill cap hit if playing.  His base is 15+ mill, and moving that to a bonus could save 10 mill easy.  An Oliver restructure would yield a similar amount.  

The change on the OL is SVPG in for McGovern.  Re-signing McGovern likely costs 15 mill+.  His dead cap is already 4.8 mill for a void year.  SVPG only makes 1.1.  Grable or Anderson in for Edwards probably saves 7.5 to 10 million.  
 

Knox is also a possible huge savings.  Cutting Knox saves 10 million.  Most of that can be realized by a simple restructure of moving 10 mill salary to a bonus.

 

I think extending Knox is also viable 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Here is a look at a projected 53 man roster for 2026, as it stands today. As you can see, I’ve bolded obvious openings, as well as have taken the liberty to cut some dead weight noted at the bottom. 

 

QB: Allen, QB2

RB: Cook, Johnson, Davis

FB: 

TE: Kincaid, Hawes, TE3

WR: WR1, Palmer, Shakir, WR4, Coleman, Shavers

OL: Dawkins, Torrence, Brown, Anderson, VanDemark, Van Pran Granger, Lundt, Grable, LG, C

 

Defense: 

 

DE: Groot, DE2, Hoecht, Solomon, Jackson, DE6

DT: Oliver, Walker, Sanders, Carter 

LB: Bernard, LB2, Williams, Andreesen, LB5

CB: Benford, Hairston, Johnson, Strong?, CB5

S: Hancock, Bishop, DB 3, DB 4, DB 5

 

K:

P:

LS: Ferguson

 

Notable players under contract likely cut; 

- Rapp, Bass, Knox, Samuel. 

 

That leaves us with 15 spots on the roster for next season. We have 7 draft picks in 2026.

 

I think we’ll get some familiar faces back, like Mitch, Gilliam, Cam Lewis, Shaq Thompson, Sam Franklin, Tre White, possibly Daquon Jones all on the cheap. You may also get Phidarian Mathis back with a chance to take DT4 over the likes of Carter. There are 3 glaring issues, and two minor ones:

 

- DE

- WR

- IOL

 

-LB

-S

 

I hope they use draft picks and cap in free agency to bring in legit starters at those positions. They aren’t in a terrible spot moving forward.

 

Edit : I also think Taron Johnson could be in discussion to be a post June 1st cut - and that would also bring a major need into the D unless they plan to transition Hancock there. 

Edited January 15 by EmotionallyUnstable

[billsfan89]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Because we only have 36 players under contract.  We need to sign or acquire starters at all levels of the defense, including a DT, DE, a LB, and S.  If they want to keep McGovern and or Edwards on the OL, that alone could cost 20 million in cap space.  You also are going to lose some cap for bonuses from this season, need 7 mill for draft picks and 7.5 to 10 million for operating space and the practice squad.   

 

Bills will have a crunch in 2026 but I think it is pretty manageable. If they pull all the reasonable levers they can (restructure Josh, Brown, Dion, Knox takes a paycut or gets cut, and Samuel/Bass/Rapp are all cut the Bills are sitting at about 57 million in cap space. I don't think they will pull the levers on Ed or Taron fully, I think they tend to only restructure guys when they feel there's a reasonable projection they will be productive in the next 2-3 years.

 

The reason why I think it is much more manageable than it seems is largely due to the fact that the Bills don't have much in terms of void years or dead cap after this season. The Bills are eating a lot of void years in 2026 (Milano at 11 million, Bosa at 7.2, Connor McGovern at 4.8, and there's a few others in the 2-3 ranges) and they don't have much in terms of void years pushed out in 2027 and beyond. In 2027 the Bills have 12 million in void year money and in 2028 it jumps to around 18 but that's after several more cap spike. 

 

Point is that I think the Bills can dump some money into 2027 and 2028 given that they have a pretty solid dead cap sheet and are not over leveraging out dead cap or void years. So if they have to rob Peter to pay Paul they can do that as long as they churn out starters in the draft consistently. 

[gonzo1105]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Because we only have 36 players under contract.  We need to sign or acquire starters at all levels of the defense, including a DT, DE, a LB, and S.  If they want to keep McGovern and or Edwards on the OL, that alone could cost 20 million in cap space.  You also are going to lose some cap for bonuses from this season, need 7 mill for draft picks and 7.5 to 10 million for operating space and the practice squad.   

 

We will undoubtedly restructure Allen again to create the necessary space to give us the space we need in addition to the above cuts I already recommended. Thats always the easy go to, he'll get a huge check up front and we'll lower his cap number significantly  

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I saw this article on Spotrac.com and I thought it would be worth a discussion considering how many threads we are already seeing about going after this guy (Mack for example) or that guy (Addison) etc...  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/3213/2026-financials-buffalo-bills

 

 

Also time to exercise the 5th year option on Kincaid (approx 8.8 million).  Biggest omission is discussion of an extension for Torrence especially in light of FAs McGovern and Edwards.

 

The Bills are going to have to find away to create an additional 60 mill in cap to be able to afford any free agents and somehow keep of the Oline intact (if that is the goal).  Personally I believe at least one of the McGovern or Edwards (or possibly both) will be allowed to walk in favor of Anderson, SVPG and/or Grable.  I trust Kromer to make good decisions on the line.  

 

I also don't want Beane to spend another nickel on a FA WR, unless it's keeping Cooks on a bargain deal.  With Palmer, Coleman and Shakir already under contract for next season, it's time to bring in youth and SPEED at the position in the draft.

 

Of the UFAs I can see Wishnowsky, White, Thompson, Cooks, Gilliam and Poyer returning.  Milano, Edwards, AJE, Trubisky and McGovern are maybes.  I don't see D Jones, Bosa, Prater, Ogunjobi or Hamlin returning.   Not sure I care whether or not Cam Lewis or Franklin return.  

 

 

 

It's funny that the very last player you mention is the guy that compels me to comment... I care very much that Sam Franklin returns.

 

He's one of the best special teams players I've ever seen and I'm super glad we have him. He is one badass, heat-seeking missile.

 

It's always amazing to me that so many great special teams players don't seem to be able to translate that excellence into offense or defense.

 

Nevertheless on almost every play that he's on the field, he jumps off the screen.

 

 

4 hours ago, Lost said:

Beane will probably start getting reckless with the cap next year if he's still here because I'm sure he knows if he doesn't bring home a trophy this year or next he's gone and I'm sure he wont give a flying F what the next GM after him has to deal with.  

 

It sounds like you think the Bills won't win the Super Bowl?