BillytheKid Posted January 7 Posted January 7 This was a for fun exercise for me. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. So no need for anyone to get upset or come in here and tell me “who cares” or “it doesn’t mean anything”. I already know all of that. I Just like comparing teams with the numbers. So if you like this sort of thing enjoy! If not , then no worries just skip it! Each team played 5 of the same teams. Bills played Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice. So both teams played 6 games against the same opponent. I’ll post below how each team did with all 6 total games as far as Points per game (offense) and Points per game allowed (Defense) Also Yards per game average (offense) against the 6 opponents for each team and yards allowed per game average for each team (defense). The last thing I will show below is since the Bills played the Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice, some might say that could skew the numbers. So I will show how each team did against the 3 other teams on the schedule on a per game basis also. I removed all 3 games (Houston and Jets) from both teams to show how they did in another stat category. So it will show stats versus all 6 games and also another version with just the same 3 opponents played one time each. *** a couple of side notes ***Burrow was knocked out early second qtr. of Jags game against them, so they played Browning for 2.5 qtr’s. ***Bills played their backs up for a whole game against the Jets. Carolina game vs. Bills played Dalton, Carolina played against Young. Same teams played: Carolina Cincinnati Kansas City New York Jets Houston Texans —————————————————— Stats when all 6 games are included: Jax 4-2 (Losses to Cincinnati and Houston both with backup QB’s) 29.66 PPG 22.50 PPG allowed 339.83 yards per game 341.83 yards allowed per game Bills 5-1 (Loss to Houston with backup QB) 31.83 PPG 17.5 PPG allowed 404.83 yards per game 237.33 yards allowed per game Against the Same teams The Bills average 2.17 more points per game Against Bills defense gives up 5 points less per game Bills offense gains 65 more yards per game Bills defense allows 104.50 yards LESS per game than the Jags do. —————————————————— When you remove the Jets and Texans games this is how the numbers look: Bills (Offense) 35.66 PPG 410 yards per game (Defense) 21.33 PPG allowed 295 yards allowed per game Jax (Offense) 28 PPG 23 PPG allowed 365.66 yards per game 361.33 yards per game allowed —————————————————- Bills average 44.34 more yards per game against same opponents Bills give up 66.33 yards less per game against the same opponents Bills average 7.66 more points per game on offense against the same opponents Bills give up 1.67 points per game less against the same opponents Does Jacksonville really have the better defense? They had to go to OT to beat the Raiders and Cardinals in their little win streak they have. Beat the Titans twice. Beat the Jets, beat Indy twice, once with Daniel’s getting hurt and next time barely squeaked by Rivers who could barely throw the ball 20 yards. They had two good wins over Chargers and Denver but who knows how good they are. Denver has almost as weak as schedule as the Pats and play a lot of really close games. Chargers have no offensive line. Not saying the Jags aren’t a formidable opponent, especially on their home field but are they a bit overrated? I don’t think their defense outside of getting turnovers is as good as people think. Just my thoughts. Let me know yours if you want. 12 10 22 Quote
Fr. Jerk Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Who cares, it doesn't mean anything, ya dig? 2 1 9 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted January 7 Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, BillytheKid said: This was a for fun exercise for me. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. So no need for anyone to get upset or come in here and tell me “who cares” or “it doesn’t mean anything”. I already know all of that. I Just like comparing teams with the numbers. So if you like this sort of thing enjoy! If not , then no worries just skip it! Each team played 5 of the same teams. Bills played Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice. So both teams played 6 games against the same opponent. I’ll post below how each team did with all 6 total games as far as Points per game (offense) and Points per game allowed (Defense) Also Yards per game average (offense) against the 6 opponents for each team and yards allowed per game average for each team (defense). The last thing I will show below is since the Bills played the Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice, some might say that could skew the numbers. So I will show how each team did against the 3 other teams on the schedule on a per game basis also. I removed all 3 games (Houston and Jets) from both teams to show how they did in another stat category. So it will show stats versus all 6 games and also another version with just the same 3 opponents played one time each. *** a couple of side notes ***Burrow was knocked out early second qtr. of Jags game against them, so they played Browning for 2.5 qtr’s. ***Bills played their backs up for a whole game against the Jets. Carolina game vs. Bills played Dalton, Carolina played against Young. Same teams played: Carolina Cincinnati Kansas City New York Jets Houston Texans —————————————————— Stats when all 6 games are included: Jax 4-2 (Losses to Cincinnati and Houston both with backup QB’s) 29.66 PPG 22.50 PPG allowed 339.83 yards per game 341.83 yards allowed per game Bills 5-1 (Loss to Houston with backup QB) 31.83 PPG 17.5 PPG allowed 404.83 yards per game 237.33 yards allowed per game Against the Same teams The Bills average 2.17 more points per game Against Bills defense gives up 5 points less per game Bills offense gains 65 more yards per game Bills defense allows 104.50 yards LESS per game than the Jags do. —————————————————— When you remove the Jets and Texans games this is how the numbers look: Bills (Offense) 35.66 PPG 410 yards per game (Defense) 21.33 PPG allowed 295 yards allowed per game Jax (Offense) 28 PPG 23 PPG allowed 365.66 yards per game 361.33 yards per game allowed —————————————————- Bills average 44.34 more yards per game against same opponents Bills give up 66.33 yards less per game against the same opponents Bills average 7.66 more points per game on offense against the same opponents Bills give up 1.67 points per game less against the same opponents Does Jacksonville really have the better defense? They had to go to OT to beat the Raiders and Cardinals in their little win streak they have. Beat the Titans twice. Beat the Jets, beat Indy twice, once with Daniel’s getting hurt and next time barely squeaked by Rivers who could barely throw the ball 20 yards. They had two good wins over Chargers and Denver but who knows how good they are. Denver has almost as weak as schedule as the Pats and play a lot of really close games. Chargers have no offensive line. Not saying the Jags aren’t a formidable opponent, especially on their home field but are they a bit overrated? I don’t think their defense outside of getting turnovers is as good as people think. Just my thoughts. Let me know yours if you want. Great work! As a stat head this is an exercise I like to do as well sometimes. Jury is still somewhat out on them from my view. They have beaten the breaks off some really bad teams. But they do have quality wins. I have firmly landed on this is a very evenly matched game. I just don't see either team running away here, but would love to be proven wrong in our favor. 2 minutes ago, Fr. Jerk said: Who cares, it doesn't mean anything, ya dig? I will not dig 6 Quote
Billsfed1 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, BillytheKid said: This was a for fun exercise for me. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. So no need for anyone to get upset or come in here and tell me “who cares” or “it doesn’t mean anything”. I already know all of that. I Just like comparing teams with the numbers. So if you like this sort of thing enjoy! If not , then no worries just skip it! Each team played 5 of the same teams. Bills played Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice. So both teams played 6 games against the same opponent. I’ll post below how each team did with all 6 total games as far as Points per game (offense) and Points per game allowed (Defense) Also Yards per game average (offense) against the 6 opponents for each team and yards allowed per game average for each team (defense). The last thing I will show below is since the Bills played the Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice, some might say that could skew the numbers. So I will show how each team did against the 3 other teams on the schedule on a per game basis also. I removed all 3 games (Houston and Jets) from both teams to show how they did in another stat category. So it will show stats versus all 6 games and also another version with just the same 3 opponents played one time each. *** a couple of side notes ***Burrow was knocked out early second qtr. of Jags game against them, so they played Browning for 2.5 qtr’s. ***Bills played their backs up for a whole game against the Jets. Carolina game vs. Bills played Dalton, Carolina played against Young. Same teams played: Carolina Cincinnati Kansas City New York Jets Houston Texans —————————————————— Stats when all 6 games are included: Jax 4-2 (Losses to Cincinnati and Houston both with backup QB’s) 29.66 PPG 22.50 PPG allowed 339.83 yards per game 341.83 yards allowed per game Bills 5-1 (Loss to Houston with backup QB) 31.83 PPG 17.5 PPG allowed 404.83 yards per game 237.33 yards allowed per game Against the Same teams The Bills average 2.17 more points per game Against Bills defense gives up 5 points less per game Bills offense gains 65 more yards per game Bills defense allows 104.50 yards LESS per game than the Jags do. —————————————————— When you remove the Jets and Texans games this is how the numbers look: Bills (Offense) 35.66 PPG 410 yards per game (Defense) 21.33 PPG allowed 295 yards allowed per game Jax (Offense) 28 PPG 23 PPG allowed 365.66 yards per game 361.33 yards per game allowed —————————————————- Bills average 44.34 more yards per game against same opponents Bills give up 66.33 yards less per game against the same opponents Bills average 7.66 more points per game on offense against the same opponents Bills give up 1.67 points per game less against the same opponents Does Jacksonville really have the better defense? They had to go to OT to beat the Raiders and Cardinals in their little win streak they have. Beat the Titans twice. Beat the Jets, beat Indy twice, once with Daniel’s getting hurt and next time barely squeaked by Rivers who could barely throw the ball 20 yards. They had two good wins over Chargers and Denver but who knows how good they are. Denver has almost as weak as schedule as the Pats and play a lot of really close games. Chargers have no offensive line. Not saying the Jags aren’t a formidable opponent, especially on their home field but are they a bit overrated? I don’t think their defense outside of getting turnovers is as good as people think. Just my thoughts. Let me know yours if you want. Nice breakdown. The closer we’ve gotten to this game, the more I’m thinking it could be a statement game for our defense. I would not be surprised to see them force Lawrence into a couple turnovers early, resulting in some quick scores. I expect a big game from the TE’s too. 2 Quote
strive_for_five_guy Posted January 7 Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, BillytheKid said: This was a for fun exercise for me. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. So no need for anyone to get upset or come in here and tell me “who cares” or “it doesn’t mean anything”. I already know all of that. I Just like comparing teams with the numbers. So if you like this sort of thing enjoy! If not , then no worries just skip it! Each team played 5 of the same teams. Bills played Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice. So both teams played 6 games against the same opponent. I’ll post below how each team did with all 6 total games as far as Points per game (offense) and Points per game allowed (Defense) Also Yards per game average (offense) against the 6 opponents for each team and yards allowed per game average for each team (defense). The last thing I will show below is since the Bills played the Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice, some might say that could skew the numbers. So I will show how each team did against the 3 other teams on the schedule on a per game basis also. I removed all 3 games (Houston and Jets) from both teams to show how they did in another stat category. So it will show stats versus all 6 games and also another version with just the same 3 opponents played one time each. *** a couple of side notes ***Burrow was knocked out early second qtr. of Jags game against them, so they played Browning for 2.5 qtr’s. ***Bills played their backs up for a whole game against the Jets. Carolina game vs. Bills played Dalton, Carolina played against Young. Same teams played: Carolina Cincinnati Kansas City New York Jets Houston Texans —————————————————— Stats when all 6 games are included: Jax 4-2 (Losses to Cincinnati and Houston both with backup QB’s) 29.66 PPG 22.50 PPG allowed 339.83 yards per game 341.83 yards allowed per game Bills 5-1 (Loss to Houston with backup QB) 31.83 PPG 17.5 PPG allowed 404.83 yards per game 237.33 yards allowed per game Against the Same teams The Bills average 2.17 more points per game Against Bills defense gives up 5 points less per game Bills offense gains 65 more yards per game Bills defense allows 104.50 yards LESS per game than the Jags do. —————————————————— When you remove the Jets and Texans games this is how the numbers look: Bills (Offense) 35.66 PPG 410 yards per game (Defense) 21.33 PPG allowed 295 yards allowed per game Jax (Offense) 28 PPG 23 PPG allowed 365.66 yards per game 361.33 yards per game allowed —————————————————- Bills average 44.34 more yards per game against same opponents Bills give up 66.33 yards less per game against the same opponents Bills average 7.66 more points per game on offense against the same opponents Bills give up 1.67 points per game less against the same opponents Does Jacksonville really have the better defense? They had to go to OT to beat the Raiders and Cardinals in their little win streak they have. Beat the Titans twice. Beat the Jets, beat Indy twice, once with Daniel’s getting hurt and next time barely squeaked by Rivers who could barely throw the ball 20 yards. They had two good wins over Chargers and Denver but who knows how good they are. Denver has almost as weak as schedule as the Pats and play a lot of really close games. Chargers have no offensive line. Not saying the Jags aren’t a formidable opponent, especially on their home field but are they a bit overrated? I don’t think their defense outside of getting turnovers is as good as people think. Just my thoughts. Let me know yours if you want. Thanks for the analysis, bro. I actually question how much of a home field advantage Jax is going to have. Thinking the Bills should have a decent showing of fans, given the location and opponent’s fanbase. Hoping it makes for a little less of a “hostile” environment than the team would face elsewhere. 1 Quote
klumzyfule66 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) The chargers game was at 1pm too. Pretty sure stats back this up, but I'm a firm believer that west coast teams coming to east coast for 1pm games significantly underperform. I mean they got the pants beat off of them in the game, but still. (Yes my belief in this is consistent for other similar scenarios, East Coast teams underperforming in night games on West Coast. And west coast teams outperforming in night games on East Coast) Edited January 7 by klumzyfule66 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted January 7 Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, klumzyfule66 said: The chargers game was at 1pm too. Pretty sure stats back this up, but I'm a firm believer that west coast teams coming to east coast for 1pm games significantly underperform. I mean they got the pants beat off of them in the game, but still. (Yes my belief in this is consistent for other similar scenarios, East Coast teams underperforming in night games on West Coast. And west coast teams outperforming in night games on East Coast) Its not easy. I don't care how well trained your body is. You will not get the same level of sleep the night before. Your rhythms are just off. When margins are so small it makes a difference. Just to validate, you see oddsmakers shade these situations all the time. Pretty much SOP for East to West or West to East, Quote
US Egg Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Appreciate the effort and the stats. Tried to do something similar to compare to post. I was out of my element. 👍 1 Quote
The Firebaugh Kid Posted January 7 Posted January 7 Thank you sincerely for this! Honestly it helped ease my mind. 2 Quote
NewEra Posted January 7 Posted January 7 The billls also played the Jets twice and the jags played Houston twice. Definitely advantageous for us 3 2 Quote
Goin Breakdown Posted January 7 Posted January 7 This breakdown gives me a little more hope. Not that I didn't have any but it seems like a lot of people are really down on the Bills in this one. Makes me nervous. 2 Quote
GoBills! Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) We will run it down their throats control the clock and not allow over 21 points. Josh will get maybe 230 yards and 1 passing TD. Keeping his foot safe is most important after winning. Edited January 7 by GoBills! 3 Quote
Taro Nimbus Posted January 7 Posted January 7 All I know is everyone in the media is picking the Jags. So usually that means Buffalo will be at their best. lol. 1 2 Quote
TBBills Fan Posted January 7 Posted January 7 I know a month ago, we went into the house of a team on quite a winning streak and we broke their will and won We have experience with this, this year with this team. I also think I heard Josh say something in the post game locker room clip to the effect of "now it begins" I feel bad for the Jags. 3 2 Quote
Puckman5 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, US Egg said: Appreciate the effort and the stats. Tried to do something similar to compare to post. I was out of my element. 👍 Next time just blurt out a bunch of emotional garble and state it as "FACT". Seems to work for a few here. And I agree with you. This was a great post that cited actual facts / statistics. 2 1 1 Quote
BillytheKid Posted January 7 Author Posted January 7 1 hour ago, NewEra said: The billls also played the Jets twice and the jags played Houston twice. Definitely advantageous for us Not sure if you are being serious here or being sarcastic? I did separate those game because it could skew the numbers and posted two different sets of stats. 🤷♂️😊🤣 51 minutes ago, Taro Nimbus said: All I know is everyone in the media is picking the Jags. So usually that means Buffalo will be at their best. lol. I agree! Every time I watch one of the Sports shows with a preview I am always telling myself “I hope they pick the Jags” or whatever team is playing Buffalo because it usually doesn’t work out when the media all picks the same side. Quote
Tulsabillsfanz Posted January 7 Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Billsfed1 said: Nice breakdown. The closer we’ve gotten to this game, the more I’m thinking it could be a statement game for our defense. I hope you’re right! This would be the first statement made by our defense in the playoffs in the McDermott era! 1 Quote
US Egg Posted January 7 Posted January 7 There’s minimal difference between the teams in overall stats. I used ESPN stats, they match up well in this regard. I feel good about Sunday, seeing what I read, combined with what the op broke down. 1 Quote
Big Turk Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) 2 hours ago, BillytheKid said: This was a for fun exercise for me. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. So no need for anyone to get upset or come in here and tell me “who cares” or “it doesn’t mean anything”. I already know all of that. I Just like comparing teams with the numbers. So if you like this sort of thing enjoy! If not , then no worries just skip it! Each team played 5 of the same teams. Bills played Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice. So both teams played 6 games against the same opponent. I’ll post below how each team did with all 6 total games as far as Points per game (offense) and Points per game allowed (Defense) Also Yards per game average (offense) against the 6 opponents for each team and yards allowed per game average for each team (defense). The last thing I will show below is since the Bills played the Jets twice and Jax played Houston twice, some might say that could skew the numbers. So I will show how each team did against the 3 other teams on the schedule on a per game basis also. I removed all 3 games (Houston and Jets) from both teams to show how they did in another stat category. So it will show stats versus all 6 games and also another version with just the same 3 opponents played one time each. *** a couple of side notes ***Burrow was knocked out early second qtr. of Jags game against them, so they played Browning for 2.5 qtr’s. ***Bills played their backs up for a whole game against the Jets. Carolina game vs. Bills played Dalton, Carolina played against Young. Same teams played: Carolina Cincinnati Kansas City New York Jets Houston Texans —————————————————— Stats when all 6 games are included: Jax 4-2 (Losses to Cincinnati and Houston both with backup QB’s) 29.66 PPG 22.50 PPG allowed 339.83 yards per game 341.83 yards allowed per game Bills 5-1 (Loss to Houston with backup QB) 31.83 PPG 17.5 PPG allowed 404.83 yards per game 237.33 yards allowed per game Against the Same teams The Bills average 2.17 more points per game Against Bills defense gives up 5 points less per game Bills offense gains 65 more yards per game Bills defense allows 104.50 yards LESS per game than the Jags do. —————————————————— When you remove the Jets and Texans games this is how the numbers look: Bills (Offense) 35.66 PPG 410 yards per game (Defense) 21.33 PPG allowed 295 yards allowed per game Jax (Offense) 28 PPG 23 PPG allowed 365.66 yards per game 361.33 yards per game allowed —————————————————- Bills average 44.34 more yards per game against same opponents Bills give up 66.33 yards less per game against the same opponents Bills average 7.66 more points per game on offense against the same opponents Bills give up 1.67 points per game less against the same opponents Does Jacksonville really have the better defense? They had to go to OT to beat the Raiders and Cardinals in their little win streak they have. Beat the Titans twice. Beat the Jets, beat Indy twice, once with Daniel’s getting hurt and next time barely squeaked by Rivers who could barely throw the ball 20 yards. They had two good wins over Chargers and Denver but who knows how good they are. Denver has almost as weak as schedule as the Pats and play a lot of really close games. Chargers have no offensive line. Not saying the Jags aren’t a formidable opponent, especially on their home field but are they a bit overrated? I don’t think their defense outside of getting turnovers is as good as people think. Just my thoughts. Let me know yours if you want. The Bills D is crazy because they can give up like 220 yards or more in the first half and then give up like 40-50 yards the entire second half and the other team can barely get a first down. And the opposite with the offense. I'm just stunned at how the defense seemingly flips a switch and suddenly is always in the right place and putting pressure on the QB and stopping the run after halftime when they could no nothing right in the first half. It would be one thing if this was a random game or two during the year but this has been a pretty consistent thing with this team and I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it so consistently. Edited January 7 by Big Turk 2 Quote
BringMetheHeadofLeonLett Posted January 7 Posted January 7 5 hours ago, Fr. Jerk said: Who cares, it doesn't mean anything, ya dig? "You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns, and those who dig. You dig." 1 2 1 Quote
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