Scenarios for winning the division; scenarios for winning the #1 seed

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

42 minutes ago, finn said:

The likelihood is about the same as the Bills coming back against the Ravens and Bengals. Was it delusional to believe they could do it? Not happening?

It’s a lot more likely than when we came back against the dolphins to be honest.  Just need the pats to lose to us and a dolphins team that’s playin better and we win out or we lose to Philly and NE loses to ravens on top of those other results 

 

I wouldn’t bet on it right now but if NE loses on Sunday things start to get uncomfortable for them 

Edited 3 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[MasterStrategist]

40 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I dunno - its been a weird year.  We got smoked by Houston away, and we lost to them in that absurd game in allen's 2nd year.  Kinda feel like its a "get that win back" type of thing.  I also think we haven't heard the last of KC.  I just can't see them dying when 10-7 is still on the table and the only teams in their way are the chargers and colts.  

KC has serious OL injury issues and their offense isn't near the same/in a good place right now.  This Sunday against Chargers is make or break for KC, but then they still need to beat Denver too.  Possible I guess that they rattle off 4 wins in a row -- but they've lost 4 of their last 5, and Indy blew the game or that'd be 5 straight losses.  I'd be surprised if they beat Denver, Chargers will be a toss-up

[Gregg]

At this point the #1 seed is between Denver and New England. I don't see anyone else getting it.

[Matt_In_NH]

9 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

If we win out I do believe we will be the 1 seed 

So you think the patriots lose to the jets or the dolphins?

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Matt_In_NH said:

So you think the patriots lose to the jets or the dolphins?

 

Jets - no

Dolphins - possible especially if they still have something to play for.

[Matt_In_NH]

15 minutes ago, Gregg said:

At this point the #1 seed is between Denver and New England. I don't see anyone else getting it.

Highly likely correct but you never know.  Broncos schedule is tough.  The pats have the best chance which is unreal.   They have truly had the most fortunate schedule.  

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

I ran some scenarios on the ESPN playoff machine to see what it'd take to get the division as well as the #1 seed. Enjoy and go Bills!

 

 

The division:

Bills win out

Patriots lose to us and either to the Jets or Dolphins

 

 

#1 seed:

Bills win out and take the division

*Jags go 3-1

**Broncos go 2-2, but it matters which games they win and lose

   -Lose to Chiefs and Chargers; win against Packers and Jags - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chargers; win against Packers and Chiefs - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Packers and Chiefs; win against Jags and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chiefs; win against Packers and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Jags; win against Chiefs and Chargers - Broncos #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Chargers; win against Jags and Broncos - Broncos #1 seed

 

 

*I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Jaguars picks could still give us the #1 seed if the Jags go 4-0

**I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Broncos picks would change the Bills/Broncos results shown above

 

 

Finally, someone talking with me like we are still in this freaking thing.

 

Thank you, Brother!!

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

6 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Jets - no

Dolphins - possible especially if they still have something to play for.

It is highly unlikely they will have something to play for.  Also.  Dolphins in the north east in January?   Probably not.   However this exact thing did happen in 2019 and prevented the pats from securing a bye.   

[Gregg]

9 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

It is highly unlikely they will have something to play for.  Also.  Dolphins in the north east in January?   Probably not.   However this exact thing did happen in 2019 and prevented the pats from securing a bye.   

 

I don't think the Pats will lose to either of them but if anyone can pull of the upset it will be the Dolphins despite Tua's struggles in the cold. The Jets don't have a shot at this point. They are playing Cook at QB now and he didn't look good vs the Dolphins.

[Mister Defense]

Great work! Thank you.

 

It gives me more hope for the division and the #1 seed to see the possibilities that you detail so well.

 

I think the scenario where the Pats lose to the Bills and the Dolphins is realistic for the division, but would be much more likely if in Miami.  I am hoping the Dolphins finally overcome their poor play in cold weather.  And that this great winning streak they are on motivates them to do that.

 

And the scenario for the #1 seed is not a total pipe dream, but less likely, with more moving parts. But then again, better than I expected.

 

 

[NeverOutNick]

58 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I tend to try to keep it realistic too but I really think we’re gonna blow the pats out tbh lol I may or may not be crazy though 😂

 

i think we’ll finish a tiebreaker short in the division though but it really wouldn’t be the craziest comeback assuming we win this Sunday 

I definitely hope you’re right. Then we gotta hope the Dolphins or Jets actually can pull something off.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

57 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

KC has serious OL injury issues and their offense isn't near the same/in a good place right now.  This Sunday against Chargers is make or break for KC, but then they still need to beat Denver too.  Possible I guess that they rattle off 4 wins in a row -- but they've lost 4 of their last 5, and Indy blew the game or that'd be 5 straight losses.  I'd be surprised if they beat Denver, Chargers will be a toss-up

Chargers Oline also looked to be a wreck.  And Denver just doesn't look right. 

 

I agree - i SHOULD count them out, just feels like everyone in their way isn't reliable.  

[Playoffs?]

Is there a way for us to miss the playoffs completely if we go 2-2 over the final 4 games?

[QB Bills]

I get the whole home field advantage thing, but there's something more satisfying about winning playoff games on the road. Yes, I know the Bills haven't done so since dinosaurs roamed the earth but my ideal scenario has them winning three road games to reach the super bowl with Allen going nuclear. I wanted that to include arrowhead but that isn't happening this season.

[WotAGuy]

1 hour ago, Playoffs? said:

Is there a way for us to miss the playoffs completely if we go 2-2 over the final 4 games?

Get out.  Now. 

[finn]

2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

It’s a lot more likely than when we came back against the dolphins to be honest.  Just need the pats to lose to us and a dolphins team that’s playin better and we win out or we lose to Philly and NE loses to ravens on top of those other results 

 

I wouldn’t bet on it right now but if NE loses on Sunday things start to get uncomfortable for them 

I can see the Patriots losing to us and losing to the Dolphins. In fact, I think it's likely. When a team wins that many in a row, it's natural to assume they're as good as their record. If they're not--and I don't think this team is--eventually probability will catch up to them, as it did for KC, who last year were also not as good as their record. Even if the Pats were significantly better than they are now, losing to us and the Dolphins would just be normal. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Here is what we should honestly be hoping for... We win out until the Jets game, and our playoff spot is set even with a loss. Then we can have our starters take one damn snap then get themselves a "bye week" before we have to win 4 straight for our 1st superbowl title.

[Avisan]

1 hour ago, Playoffs? said:

Is there a way for us to miss the playoffs completely if we go 2-2 over the final 4 games?

No.

[jethro_tull]

11 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

I ran some scenarios on the ESPN playoff machine to see what it'd take to get the division as well as the #1 seed. Enjoy and go Bills!

 

 

The division:

Bills win out

Patriots lose to us and either to the Jets or Dolphins

 

 

#1 seed:

Bills win out and take the division

*Jags go 3-1

**Broncos go 2-2, but it matters which games they win and lose

   -Lose to Chiefs and Chargers; win against Packers and Jags - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chargers; win against Packers and Chiefs - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Packers and Chiefs; win against Jags and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chiefs; win against Packers and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Jags; win against Chiefs and Chargers - Broncos #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Chargers; win against Jags and Broncos - Broncos #1 seed

 

 

*I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Jaguars picks could still give us the #1 seed if the Jags go 4-0

**I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Broncos picks would change the Bills/Broncos results shown above

I think the first tie breaker is win percent within the division. 

Right now the Ratriots are 3 and 0 in the division with three division games left.

The Bills are 2 and 2 with two games left. 

Winning out the Bills will be 13 and 4, but 4 and 2 within the division.  

If the Rats lose to Bills and Ravens, they will be 13 and 4 but own the first tiebreaker.  

For the Bills to win the East the Rats need to lose to the Bills and 2 other games so we have the best record.  Rats lose to Bills, Ravens and Dolphins?  Possible. 

 

[Utah John]

11 hours ago, GoBills! said:

 Coleman caught a TD and Knox had over 90 yards this week that is delusional 😆 

Certainly delusional isn't the right word.  It actually happened.  I think you mean it's very unlikely to be repeated, and on that we agree.  But the Bills do have other ways to beat you.