Scenarios for winning the division; scenarios for winning the #1 seed

[BillsFan619]

I ran some scenarios on the ESPN playoff machine to see what it'd take to get the division as well as the #1 seed. Enjoy and go Bills!

 

 

The division:

Bills win out

Patriots lose to us and either to the Jets or Dolphins

 

 

#1 seed:

Bills win out and take the division

*Jags go 3-1

**Broncos go 2-2, but it matters which games they win and lose

   -Lose to Chiefs and Chargers; win against Packers and Jags - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chargers; win against Packers and Chiefs - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Packers and Chiefs; win against Jags and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chiefs; win against Packers and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Jags; win against Chiefs and Chargers - Broncos #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Chargers; win against Jags and Broncos - Broncos #1 seed

 

 

*I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Jaguars picks could still give us the #1 seed if the Jags go 4-0

**I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Broncos picks would change the Bills/Broncos results shown above

Edited 37 minutes ago by BillsFan619

[Kelly to Allen]

If we win out I do believe we will be the 1 seed 

[SydneyBillsFan]

Not happening. 

 

Park the delusion.

[GoBills!]

5 minutes ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

Not happening. 

 

Park the delusion.

 Coleman caught a TD and Knox had over 90 yards this week that is delusional 😆 

[DanM]

I believe we must have a better record than Pats. Based on tie- breakers.  That’s not going to happen.

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 minutes ago, DanM said:

I believe we must have a better record than Pats. Based on tie- breakers.  That’s not going to happen.

This is wrong.  If we win out, Pats just need to lose to Miami or the Jets for us to win the division.

[MasterStrategist]

7 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

I ran some scenarios on the ESPN playoff machine to see what it'd take to get the division as well as the #1 seed.

 

 

The division:

Bills win out

Patriots lose to us and either to the Jets or Dolphins

 

 

#1 seed:

Bills win out and take the division

*Jags go 3-1

**Broncos go 2-2, but it matters which games they win and lose

   -Lose to Chiefs and Chargers; win against Packers and Jags - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chargers; win against Packers and Chiefs - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Packers and Chiefs; win against Jags and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to Jags and Chiefs; win against Packers and Chargers - Bills #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Jags; win against Chiefs and Chargers - Broncos #1 seed

   -Lose to GB and Chargers; win against Jags and Broncos - Broncos #1 seed

 

 

Enjoy and go Bills!

 

 

*I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Jaguars picks could still give us the #1 seed if the Jags go 4-0

**I predicted every remaining NFL game, so I’m not sure if altering any non-Broncos picks would change the Bills/Broncos results shown above

Other option to win division --- 

 

Bills: win remaining AFC games (lose to Eagles)

Pats: losses to us + 2 more AFC losses (Dolphins, Jets, Ravens)

 

Pats should be favored in those remaining 3 AFC matchups, but the Fins have been playing well and Lamar is capable of flipping a switch at any point.  

 

Just need to take care of business this Sunday --- at the very least, getting the 5 seed is very important.  Much rather play at Pitt again, or even Baltimore, vs travelling to Houston (who I think will ultimately win that division and be the #3 seed).

[Billsfanatic8989]

35 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

This is wrong.  If we win out, Pats just need to lose to Miami or the Jets for us to win the division.

This. 

 

We would win on conference record if the above happened. 

[Bills aPHILLYate]

I know the scenarios can change week to week but I get excited at the thought of going into the playoffs with the clear cut best QB of the bunch vs a field potentially absent of Mahomes, Lamar and Burrow

 

 

[TFBillsfan]

10 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Other option to win division --- 

 

Bills: win remaining AFC games (lose to Eagles)

Pats: losses to us + 2 more AFC losses (Dolphins, Jets, Ravens)

 

Pats should be favored in those remaining 3 AFC matchups, but the Fins have been playing well and Lamar is capable of flipping a switch at any point.  

 

Just need to take care of business this Sunday --- at the very least, getting the 5 seed is very important.  Much rather play at Pitt again, or even Baltimore, vs travelling to Houston (who I think will ultimately win that division and be the #3 seed).

Jags should win 3 of their last 4, Houston would have to win out to catch them. Not sure who wins the tiebreaker?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

44 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

This is wrong.  If we win out, Pats just need to lose to Miami or the Jets for us to win the division.

Yep 2 division losses for NE also gives them 2 conference losses which is one more than us.  That would tie up the head to head and division tiebreakers and give us the conference tiebreaker assuming we don’t lose to another afc team which isn’t unreasonable 

 

I wouldn’t start getting excited until beating NE but with Miami playing better it really isn’t impossible if we win the NE game 

Edited 1 hour ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Other option to win division --- 

 

Bills: win remaining AFC games (lose to Eagles)

Pats: losses to us + 2 more AFC losses (Dolphins, Jets, Ravens)

 

Pats should be favored in those remaining 3 AFC matchups, but the Fins have been playing well and Lamar is capable of flipping a switch at any point.  

 

Just need to take care of business this Sunday --- at the very least, getting the 5 seed is very important.  Much rather play at Pitt again, or even Baltimore, vs travelling to Houston (who I think will ultimately win that division and be the #3 seed).

 

I dunno - its been a weird year.  We got smoked by Houston away, and we lost to them in that absurd game in allen's 2nd year.  Kinda feel like its a "get that win back" type of thing.  I also think we haven't heard the last of KC.  I just can't see them dying when 10-7 is still on the table and the only teams in their way are the chargers and colts.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

Wouldn't this be the most "Billsy" season for us to win it all? I don't know about anyone else, but I always pictured that dream season where the Bills dominated, ran through the playoffs and won it all 

 

This year with the imperfect roster, all the hand ringing and "Beane and McDermott need to go" sentiment, not leading the division basically all year, losing to nothing teams like Atlanta...we, collectively haven't been able to settle in and enjoy the ride this year. Would be just like this franchise to win it all in a year we had so much "wrong"

Edited 54 minutes ago by BuffaloBillyG

[finn]

8 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

Not happening. 

 

Park the delusion.

The likelihood is about the same as the Bills coming back against the Ravens and Bengals. Was it delusional to believe they could do it? Not happening?

[BVBILLS]

Pats already have their shirts and hats ready

[NeverOutNick]

If I’m being totally realistic I think we lose again to the pats this week. They had a bye week and are at home. I think we beat the Browns and Eagles and then rest starters for the final week with a secured wild card bid. I would love to get the 1 seed and if we do and no chiefs to play I think we get to the SB but being a wild card team this year won’t be bad either. Right now we don’t have to play Mahomes, Lamar or Burrow in the playoffs. Allen is by far the best QB left and should carry us through regardless of seeding or McD incompetence this year

[strive_for_five_guy]

45 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yep 2 division losses for NE also gives them 2 conference losses which is one more than us.  That would tie up the head to head and division tiebreakers and give us the conference tiebreaker assuming we don’t lose to another afc team which isn’t unreasonable 

 

I wouldn’t start getting excited until beating NE but with Miami playing better it really isn’t impossible if we win the NE game 

This is why it’s good to lose games against NFC opponents, as I was once told

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

47 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Jags should win 3 of their last 4, Houston would have to win out to catch them. Not sure who wins the tiebreaker?

Agree --- if Jax loses to Denver though, and Houston wins out (which I think will happen).  Then Houston has the tie-breaker (neutral on Div & common games, but they'd have the Conf tie-breaker ---- similar to us w/NE if we hit scenarios).

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

If I’m being totally realistic I think we lose again to the pats this week. They had a bye week and are at home. I think we beat the Browns and Eagles and then rest starters for the final week with a secured wild card bid. I would love to get the 1 seed and if we do and no chiefs to play I think we get to the SB but being a wild card team this year won’t be bad either. Right now we don’t have to play Mahomes, Lamar or Burrow in the playoffs. Allen is by far the best QB left and should carry us through regardless of seeding or McD incompetence this year

I tend to try to keep it realistic too but I really think we’re gonna blow the pats out tbh lol I may or may not be crazy though 😂

 

i think we’ll finish a tiebreaker short in the division though but it really wouldn’t be the craziest comeback assuming we win this Sunday 

[HamptonBillsfan]

Forget the division and we never had a sniff of #1 seed after inexplicably losing to Atlanta and Miami. We can win from the #5 seed. Beating Pittsburgh in the WC round is doable. Then if we face NE or Jacksonville, we would be favored in the division round. Then I would like  my chances with Denver or NE  to get to the SB. The only team that would scare me would be the Texans if we had to play them in Houston.