Has Josh Allen put himself back in the race for MVP this year??

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, skibum said:

It would require a pretty epic set of circumstances for Josh to pass Stafford and Maye. I would love to see those circumstances unfold, but it's just not going to happen. 

 

To me it would first require bills win the division over the patriots.  So bills win out, and pats lose to buffalo and miami (i think this works or is close, but don't quote me).  I'd also say that it would require that the rams finish a WC, and ideally with a worse record than Buffalo at 13-4.  

 

If that happened - Odd's aren't bad that buffalo is 1 in the conference (maybe 2 if denver tops in tiebreakers).  And I would think Allen would have had a great stretch of games to get the team there.  

[Warriorspikes51]

if he looks better than Maye, we win and somehow take the division it's Stafford or Allen 

Stafford has 2 top WR's....must be nice

[agilen]

I think Maye and Allen are going to cancel each other out.  Allen will outplay Maye this weekend and we'll win comfortably, but the Pats will win the division due to the tiebreakers so heavily favoring them (they'll only lose one more game).  But the voters will see Allen going 6-0 down the stretch while Maye goes 3-2, so they won't give it to Maye, but Allen won't get it because he doesn't win his division.

 

Its Stafford's award this year; he'd have to lay an egg against both Detroit and Seattle to lose it.

[Mr. WEO]

26 minutes ago, agilen said:

I think Maye and Allen are going to cancel each other out.  Allen will outplay Maye this weekend and we'll win comfortably, but the Pats will win the division due to the tiebreakers so heavily favoring them (they'll only lose one more game).  But the voters will see Allen going 6-0 down the stretch while Maye goes 3-2, so they won't give it to Maye, but Allen won't get it because he doesn't win his division.

 

Its Stafford's award this year; he'd have to lay an egg against both Detroit and Seattle to lose it.

 

if

26 minutes ago, agilen said:

I think Maye and Allen are going to cancel each other out.  Allen will outplay Maye this weekend and we'll win comfortably, but the Pats will win the division due to the tiebreakers so heavily favoring them (they'll only lose one more game).  But the voters will see Allen going 6-0 down the stretch while Maye goes 3-2, so they won't give it to Maye, but Allen won't get it because he doesn't win his division.

 

Its Stafford's award this year; he'd have to lay an egg against both Detroit and Seattle to lose it.

 

 

if Maye takes them from worst to first, he's a lock. 

[DapperCam]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Allen is literally the most valuable player in the league but that's not what the MVP award is for. Yes as stupid as that sounds. It's more of a season achievement award for the QB of a top seed. I think if New England goes 3-1 to end the season Maye will get it. If they go 2-2 it will go to Stafford. Slight chance of Jordan Love getting it over Stafford if the Packers finish with the #1 seed. Anyone other than those three I'd give 100:1 odds at this point. For Allen to get it we'd have to win out and have everything else happen just right for us to end as the #1 seed.

I think he could get it with the #2 seed, but Stafford would have to put up a couple stinkers and the Rams couldn’t also be #1 seed.

 

It actually isn’t impossible that the Rams drop to a Wild Card. Seahawks are tied with them and they and still have a H2H. Also Seahawks outperformed them in the first matchup but Darnold went full Jets-mode in that game.

[agilen]

19 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

if Maye takes them from worst to first, he's a lock. 

 

I don't think he's a lock if the reigning MVP outplays him at home in December. The end of the season carries so much more weight to the voters.

[Billsfanatic8989]

Stafford is a lock unless the Rams go 1-3 and he has like 9 turnovers in those games. Not going to happen. Stafford nearing the end & never winning before helps his case.

1 minute ago, agilen said:

 

I don't think he's a lock if the reigning MVP outplays him at home in December. The end of the season carries so much more weight to the voters.

This. 

 

I think, in general, Allen does more with less than any other QB. How many TD's would he have with the Rams offensive talent? 

Edited 1 hour ago by Billsfanatic8989

[folz]

9 hours ago, Instincts said:

There were many quarterbacks to blossom their second year.  Its not like its his rookie year.  And not only is this is second year but its late in his second year.  Matthew Stafford does have Puka Nakua who might be the best WR in the NFL.  And Josh Allen has 10 INTs and the record has been up and down or seemingly he is 2 games behind Drake Maye in the division, which will hurt his chances.  In regards to Jonathan Taylor, runningbacks rarely win the award and he has seemed to cool off since the first half of the season.  Lastly, Drake Maye might have the best completion percentage in the NFL while also leading in yards.  And thats with Kayshon Boutte as his number 1 receiver and a rookie at RB. 

Patriots still have a better record.  That will hurt Josh vs Maye with MVP. 

This is probably the most accurate.  I just believe Maye has less to work with than Stafford.

 

From what I could find on a quick search, there have been three players to win the NFL MVP younger than 24 years old (and/or in the first 3 seasons of their career): Jim Brown (1957---age 22, rookie year), Lamar Jackson (2019---age 22/23, 2nd year), Patrick Mahomes (2018---age 23, 2nd year). So, as you said, there is precedent with Mahomes and Jackson both winning in their second year and at about the same age as Maye (23 years old, 2nd season).

 

Now, having said that, I thought I would compare the two QB MVP seasons to Maye's season.

 

Mahomes (2018) 5,368 total yards, 52 total TDs, 12 INTs

Jackson (2019) 4,333 total yards, 43 total TDs, 6 INTs

 

[Maye is on pace for (pro-rated stats to 17 games)]:

Maye (2025) 4,879 total yards, 33 total TDs, 8 INTs

 

Stafford (2025, for comparison) is on pace for: 4,386 total yards, 45 TDs, 5 INTs. (Pretty similar to Lamar's 2019 stats, sans the running)

 

Maye's yards and interceptions fit right in between Jackson's and Mahomes' first MVP season stats (of course, even though Jackson's yard total isn't as high, a lot of it for him was we just hadn't seen a QB that dynamic with running the ball, at least since Vick). The only knock for Maye is TD totals (and maybe strength of schedule---though you can only play who is on your schedule). The others (the two MVP seasons listed, and Stafford...and Josh as well), will all have 43 or more total TDs (Maye is on pace for 33). Not sure how much the voters weigh yards vs. TDs...as Maye will most likely have more yards than Stafford and Allen (and Jackson in 2019). No question Maye is having an excellent year, I'm just not sure if it is as dynamic or as eye-opening as say Lamar's running in 2019 and Mahomes' 5,000 yards and 50+ TDs in 2018. But, Maye is obviously not competing with Jackson's and Mahomes' MVP years, and there is no run away candidate this year. And he has taken his team that wasn't expected to do much, to a 11-2 record and probably a division title (that's big, especially with the Bills in the division). So sure, why not Maye?

 

I do agree that Josh is not winning the MVP if the Pats hold on to the division (and with Maye playing as well as he is in the same division). So, if things stay relatively the same, it is probably a two-man race between Stafford and Maye. But there is still a lot of ball left to play.

 

But, yeah, no reason Maye can't win in his second year, I just wonder if some voters would rather give it to an older vet---not sure why I'm thinking that though, just a gut feeling...and good luck with the "other guys have more help" argument. We tried that with Josh for a couple of seasons to no avail. Though, it did probably finally weigh in to the equation a bit last season, when he finally won.

[Mister Defense]

Yes

 

It should be between Josh and Stafford, with Maye next in line.

 

Josh is having another great year, willing the team to wins time and time again.

 

Just like one would expect from an MVP.

 

Four games left, almost a quarter of the season, and all will likely be meaningful, and for all three quarterbacks.  Here's to hoping that Josh Allen makes it almost impossible to vote for anyone else.

 

[Don Otreply]

Josh Allen is always in the race for MVP, jmo.

[BuffBillsForLife]

Stafford should win pretty comfortably unless he majorly lays an egg in the last 4 weeks. If the Bills somehow get the 1 or 2 seed and Allen scores 5 TDs per game until the end of the season he could repeat but I would still probably bet against it. Maye won't get it over Stafford because he hasn't "paid his dues", so to speak, while Stafford is at the tail end of a long career.

 

Legacy stuff factors in a lot when it probably shouldn't.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, agilen said:

 

I don't think he's a lock if the reigning MVP outplays him at home in December. The end of the season carries so much more weight to the voters.

 

Voyers love a story.  Worst to first is the story.