Has Josh Allen put himself back in the race for MVP this year??

[mjt328]

There is a full month left in the regular season.  A lot can happen in four games. 

But a lot of weight is put into team record when stats aren't overwhelmingly in favor of one guy.

 

Allen won't win unless the Bills win the AFC East.

Stafford won't lose unless the Rams fall out of first place.

Maye is the wild card if both of those teams end in second.

 

Both are mathematically possible.  And to happen, it would like coincide with Allen have a very strong finish and Stafford falling off.  

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

 

Maye was the QB last year. Seems like coaching was the biggest difference.

He wasn’t the QB all last year and it was his rookie year. (FYI I think was week 6 he became the starter and he didnt play the last game.. so he played like 10 games last year?)

[Rocbillsfan1]

He’s clearly in the top 5 still so anything can happen. 

[US Egg]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s ethereal

 

 

Man, talk about getting a real feel of the speed of the game. You don’t get that in the broadcast. Awesome!

[folz]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Stafford has only four interceptions.  A  35 TD to 4 INT ratio is pretty, pretty good.

 

Ah yes, thanks for the correction. I can only assume that in the football database I looked too quickly and saw his Int percent 0.9, which is right next to INTs (4).

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I think to even be in the convo he’s gotta win the division which involves us winning out and pats finishing 1-3. That’s the only way I see him leap frogging maye in voting.  I don’t think you ever see the 2nd place guy in the division getting it when the first place team has a guy in the conversation 

 

still might not be enough to grab it from Stafford though unless he goes absolutely thermonuclear in these last 4 games on top of that 

Edited 9 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[L Ron Burgundy]

5 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Devils advocate what do you think the Pats record be with anyone besides Maye at QB they are lucky have 6 wins right now.. 

6?  Sounds about right.  Bills probably have 3.

[HappyDays]

Allen is literally the most valuable player in the league but that's not what the MVP award is for. Yes as stupid as that sounds. It's more of a season achievement award for the QB of a top seed. I think if New England goes 3-1 to end the season Maye will get it. If they go 2-2 it will go to Stafford. Slight chance of Jordan Love getting it over Stafford if the Packers finish with the #1 seed. Anyone other than those three I'd give 100:1 odds at this point. For Allen to get it we'd have to win out and have everything else happen just right for us to end as the #1 seed.

[Chandler#81]

I hope so. But I’m a homer..

[SydneyBillsFan]

 

 

 

[jlgarsh]

6 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Devils advocate what do you think the Pats record be with anyone besides Maye at QB they are lucky have 6 wins right now.. 

The Bills wouldn’t win 5 games this year without Josh, and that’s including the rest of the schedule. 

[GunnerBill]

Unless the Rams collapse Matt Stafford will be MVP.

[Instincts]

10 hours ago, folz said:

According to the odds posted by QCity, it looks like a 4-man race at this point. Stafford, Maye, Love, and Allen.

 

Stats

Drake Maye (11-2)      3,731 total yards    25 total TDs   6 INTs

Josh Allen (9-4)         3,570 total yards   34 total TDs  10 INTs

Matt Stafford (10-3)   3,344 total yards   35 total TDs   9 INTs  (corrected per Doc Brown, Stafford only has 4 INTs)

Jordan Love (9-3-1)   3,195 total yards    22 total TDs   4 INTs

 

Maye has the most yards, but Stafford and Allen are considerably in front in the TD tally. But, I think there are a few things going against Josh right now. He will get knocked for interceptions (even though Stafford only has one fewer), he'll get dinged for having another MVP candidate in his division (with a better record, more yards and fewer INTs---despite the TD discrepancy)---especially if the Pats win the division. Also, they just may not want to give Josh back-to-back titles.

 

I have a hard time seeing Maye win it in just his second year (even though he is having a very nice year), but I guess there is nothing saying a young guy can't win it. But, yeah my odds are probably on Stafford at the moment too, for the above reasons. Though Josh should once again be at least firmly in the conversation.

 

And now that he already has one (was finally recognized by the league as he should be), it's less important to me if Josh wins again or not. Post-season/Super Bowl focused.

 

There were many quarterbacks to blossom their second year.  Its not like its his rookie year.  And not only is this is second year but its late in his second year.  Matthew Stafford does have Puka Nakua who might be the best WR in the NFL.  And Josh Allen has 10 INTs and the record has been up and down or seemingly he is 2 games behind Drake Maye in the division, which will hurt his chances.  In regards to Jonathan Taylor, runningbacks rarely win the award and he has seemed to cool off since the first half of the season.  Lastly, Drake Maye might have the best completion percentage in the NFL while also leading in yards.  And thats with Kayshon Boutte as his number 1 receiver and a rookie at RB. 

3 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

The Bills wouldn’t win 5 games this year without Josh, and that’s including the rest of the schedule. 

Patriots still have a better record.  That will hurt Josh vs Maye with MVP. 

8 hours ago, mjt328 said:

There is a full month left in the regular season.  A lot can happen in four games. 

But a lot of weight is put into team record when stats aren't overwhelmingly in favor of one guy.

 

Allen won't win unless the Bills win the AFC East.

Stafford won't lose unless the Rams fall out of first place.

Maye is the wild card if both of those teams end in second.

 

Both are mathematically possible.  And to happen, it would like coincide with Allen have a very strong finish and Stafford falling off.  

This is probably the most accurate.  I just believe Maye has less to work with than Stafford.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Instincts said:

 

This is probably the most accurate.  I just believe Maye has less to work with than Stafford.

 

He definitely does, but as much as the voters would tell you MVP is only ever about how they play that season the reality is it is going to be a bit of a career award for Matt Stafford. He is a well liked, well respected, Superbowl winning vet coming towards the end. Unless the Rams collapse down the stretch he will be the MVP. I think Maye will get a few votes but Stafford is gonna get a big majority of the 50. 

[Instincts]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-rankings-index-week-14-2025-nfl-season

[BillsVet]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Allen is literally the most valuable player in the league but that's not what the MVP award is for. Yes as stupid as that sounds. It's more of a season achievement award for the QB of a top seed. I think if New England goes 3-1 to end the season Maye will get it. If they go 2-2 it will go to Stafford. Slight chance of Jordan Love getting it over Stafford if the Packers finish with the #1 seed. Anyone other than those three I'd give 100:1 odds at this point. For Allen to get it we'd have to win out and have everything else happen just right for us to end as the #1 seed.

 

MVP awards are gradually becoming more about the sentiment of the player himself and less about their contribution to a team.  It's like a company's stock which has street momentum, but may not be the best company itself financially.  

 

Josh became the popular choice last season, but cases could have been made for about 5 other QBs, Barkley, and Derrick Henry.    

 

I'd expect Stafford does get it barring a huge collapse for the reason @GunnerBill mentioned...it's like a career award.  Besides, there aren't as many QBs in contention like there were last year.  

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Instincts said:

This is probably the most accurate.  I just believe Maye has less to work with than Stafford.

 

New England's schedule reads like a the Top 10 mock draft coming up this April.

 

Regardless of their record, almost nobody outside of Boston MA is 100% sold on the Patriots yet.  When you go from worst->first, there is going to be skepticism that it's a legitimate turn-around.  When you play mostly bottom-feeder teams, there is going to be skepticism that it's real.  When your second-year QB has a sudden breakout season, there is going to be skepticism if he's a one-year wonder.  Fair or not, all that is going to hurt Drake Maye's chances with most MVP voters.

 

With four games left, there is definitely time for that to change.  The Patriots basically have two wins against somewhat quality teams this year.  A 3-point victory over the Bills, after a penalty/turnover fest.  And the Bucs, who fell apart after losing Mike Evans.  How they perform against the Bills this Sunday is going to feed the narrative for the team and Maye.  If they walk away with another win, a lot of people are going to start believing they are really a contender.  If they lose, they are going to be seen as frauds going into the playoffs.

 

Stafford has played great this year, and is the current frontrunner.  I do think many voters want to see him get it, because it's the one thing in his career that he's never won.  It's like the cherry on top to seal a Hall of Fame career.  But the Rams also have the Seahawks nipping at their heels.  It may be tough to give that award to a second-place QB with a great playcalling coach, two stud WRs, etc.

 

[Process]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Allen is literally the most valuable player in the league but that's not what the MVP award is for. Yes as stupid as that sounds. It's more of a season achievement award for the QB of a top seed. I think if New England goes 3-1 to end the season Maye will get it. If they go 2-2 it will go to Stafford. Slight chance of Jordan Love getting it over Stafford if the Packers finish with the #1 seed. Anyone other than those three I'd give 100:1 odds at this point. For Allen to get it we'd have to win out and have everything else happen just right for us to end as the #1 seed.

Agree with everything but I think Stafford is the one in the driver's seat. If Rams are the one seed he is MVP, regardless of what the Patriots do. 

 

The Patriots are bigger favorites to win their division though, that's what Maye has going for him. 

[JP51]

13 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

No.  But he should win it.  Nobody is more important to a team's success.  

In the purist sense... he is clearly the MVP I dont think anyone has a worse surrounding cast... between WR and Defense... Josh Allen doesnt play we are getting a top 10 pick.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

My personal rule, not that anybody cares , is that a QB ( it's a QB award imo) shouldn't win a 2nd MVP until he's a Super bowl champion. Lamar Jackson is the only 2 time MVP without a championship 

 

So I don't think Allen should be in the conversation 

 

I also will lean more into QBs that have won a championship when it comes to overall accolades. So if it's close, I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to a super bowl champion 

 

Again this is jmo obviously 

 

 

But based on how it's voted on and the rules, if the bills win out, and Allen gets 40 tds for the 6th straight year. Its probably going to be impossible not to give it to him 

 

Well Manning won 03 and 04, then a super bowl in 06.