SHOULD the Bills pick up Dalton Kincaid’s 5th year option?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

The 2023 first rounder class will have the team option 5th year decisions made this spring. Based on his performance and playing time, Kincaid’s 2027 season is projected to cost Buffalo 8.7 million if they choose to exercise it. 
 

I believe the Bills will pick this up, locking him in for the next two seasons (26’-27’). But SHOULD they continue down this path? Or would you prefer they let him play out is last year of the deal and see where it takes them, sign him to a multi-year cheaper deal, or just cut him loose? 
 

Personally, I believe they should exercise the 5th year option and that’s it. The injuries are too concerning for me to want to hitch my wagon to him, even at a discounted rate extending him early. 
 

I think the 8.7 is well worth another year, and if things trend upwards after next season, you could always extending him post-2026 with him under contract still in 2027 and plenty of time to work things out. 
 

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

Edited 10 hours ago by EmotionallyUnstable

[IYKYK]

Beane will probably sign him to the largest tight end contract ever.

[Ya Digg?]

I’m sure people will have rational, non butt hurt responses to this….cant wait to see them!!

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I’m hesitant to bail on what little top tier receiving talent we have, but I just can’t hand out yet another big contract to someone I can’t count on to be out there on game days 

[LarryMadman]

yes

[CSBill]

Yes. Sorry, stupid question. Why not? The rest of the NFL would be falling over each other to get to him if the Bills somehow let Kincaid walk.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, CSBill said:

Yes. Sorry, stupid question. Why not? The rest of the NFL would be falling over each other to get to him if the Bills somehow let Kincaid walk.

Decline a fifth year option is not the same as letting a player walk.

 

Also, that’s pretty doubtful in terms of his market.

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

The 2023 first rounder class will have the team option 5th year decisions made this spring. Based on his performance and playing time, Kincaid’s 2027 season is projected to cost Buffalo 8.7 million if they choose to exercise it. 
 

I believe the Bills will pick this up, locking him in for the next two seasons (26’-27’). But SHOULD they continue down this path? Or would you prefer they let him play out is last year of the deal and see where it takes them, sign him to a multi-year cheaper deal, or just cut him loose? 
 

Personally, I believe they should exercise the 5th year option and that’s it. The injuries are too concerning for me to want to hitch my wagon to him, even at a discounted rate extending him early. 
 

I think the 8.7 is well worth another year, and if things trend upwards after next season, you could always extending him post-2026 with him under contract still in 2027 and plenty of time to work things out. 
 

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

I would probably just not sign him until post 2026 anyway. I don’t see us trading him at that point, and I don’t want to be on the hook for 2027 injury guarantees.

 

Pass on the option, if he explodes in 2026, pay him. If he continues to

be an injury prone old TE, he can walk. 

[CSBill]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Decline a fifth year option is not the same as letting a player walk.

 

Also, that’s pretty doubtful in terms of his market.

 

Fair point, but the idea of the Bills wanting part with him is, well, "EmotionallyUnstable." 🙂

[MikePJ76]

The bigger question is who will be the general manager who gets to make that decision?  If you are McDermott you have to be looking sideways at the offseason Beane put together.  
 

I am not convinced Beane is back If the bills do not make and win a playoff game this year 

[Chaos]

The direct correct answer is:

Exercise the option

The thoughful answer is:

Former first round draft pick who has flashed very good play at times with injury struggles.  You can have him for one year for $8.7 million. You can't relpace him for that in free agency. Probably can't replace him for in the draft. Alternatively if Hawes is a true TE1, then the money might better upgrade the position. 

Fun answer :

If you don't get him first, he can never rejoin the team later

 

[BlueRed]

I was going to initially say decline the option and try to negotiate something cheaper - But 8.7 is not that scary of a salary number. I bet they pick it up and see what the next 2 years look like health and production-wise. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

5th year only.  If he keeps missing games due to injuries. We have to let him walk after next year 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for Mr. Softside. That said Beane will want to save face by picking up his fifth year option. They love “their guys” too much and constantly overvalue them; thereby losing opportunities with talented players available through free agency. Kincaid can’t stay on the field. Jackson Hawes does what they have expected from Kincaid—-block and catch. Let Kincaid walk and snag the draft pick. Or sign him for the option year and trade him. Somebody will gamble his ability over lack of availability historically. 

[Ya Digg?]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

5th year only.  If he keeps missing games due to injuries. We have to let him walk after next year 

Sorry I’m confused-you want them to pick up the 5th year, but if he misses more games because of injury you him gone after next year? That’s not how it works 

[atlbillsfan1975]

Given the option I choose a longterm cheap deal. He is worth that to me(and Beane). 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I think it’s important to keep in mind that 8.7 million would be in two years. With the increasing cap number projected to be $311 million in 2027, it would come in at roughly 2.8% of the cap for Kincaid that year. 
 

In today’s terms, that’s like someone making 7.8 million (2.8% of current cap) this year. This is less than Beane paid buffalo bills legend Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer.

[quincy]

Would picking up the 5th year option increase his trade value? 

 

Wondering what his franchise tag could possibly be in two years time.

 

Baltimore may not extend Isiah Likely as one particular alternative. 

[balln]

This is obvious. So beane will not do it. 
 

he has whatever the end of this year ends up being. 
 

has next year

 

then his 5th year option year at 8+ M. He will be 28 

 

his next contract he’ll be 29.

 

just can’t do it. No way. Do not extend him. His was drafted to be be Kelce like. And he’s never going to be Kelce with this qb and offensive system. 

[Rew]

8 minutes ago, Jimmy Harris 69 said:

The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for Mr. Softside. That said Beane will want to save face by picking up his fifth year option. They love “their guys” too much and constantly overvalue them; thereby losing opportunities with talented players available through free agency. Kincaid can’t stay on the field. Jackson Hawes does what they have expected from Kincaid—-block and catch. Let Kincaid walk and snag the draft pick. Or sign him for the option year and trade him. Somebody will gamble his ability over lack of availability historically. 

So you think $8M per is an overvalue?

 

For me the 5th year is a no brainer.  I wouldn't sign him until at least after year 4 though, and possibly let him play out year 5 as well.