Its OK for the Bills to be a run-first team

[First Round Bust]

extracted from Dec 2 espn.com online (public info) - author - Ben Solak - raises some good points with stats and details such as Josh quick decisions and release times.

 

Note the embedded videos from the Pitts game of Cooks uncovering in the intermediate middle in a big void between zones and Shavers  with a step on a deep corner route on a play-action boot.did not translate so you may need to go back to espn.com to watch those to witness our receivers ACTUALLY SEPARATING.

 

PS...Don't shoot the messenger..but do read for comprehension..

 

 

ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen did not throw the football downfield on Sunday.

Literally. He had zero attempts 20-plus yards downfield. In 136 games across Allen's career, only six have come without a pass 20-plus yards downfield. Four of those six games have come this season.

As the deep ball vanishes from Allen's game, his overall air yards per attempt drops in concert. Allen's 7.3 air yards per attempt is a new career low, and if that number holds, it'll be the eighth season in a row in which Allen's average depth of target has dropped from the previous season, encompassing every year of his career. (To be fair, rookie Josh Allen was hucking that thing. A decrease was inevitable.)

Even in that backdrop, this game against the Steelers stands out. Allen averaged 1.6 air yards per attempt, almost half the distance of his previous single-game low (3.1). There have been only five games in the past 15 NFL seasons with an air yards per attempt below 2.0 yards.

It's obviously not good to have the entire passing game live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nobody is in Orchard Park, New York, celebrating a fully realized offensive game plan that reflected the Bills' identity and demonstrated their prowess as an AFC contender.

However ... this was a very encouraging game for the Bills' offense! It was a sign of growth from offensive coordinator Joe Brady! It's the version of the offense that can actually win a Super Bowl!

Let's start with the obvious: Both starting tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, were out. Just last week against the Texans, we saw what would happen if Allen tried to hang in the pocket for any period of time, and that was with both starting tackles playing (albeit Brown was clearly hurt). Against the Steelers, whose defensive strength is the edge rush, it was important to get rid of the ball quickly. Just as it was the shallowest depth of target of Allen's career, it was his fifth quickest in time to throw at 2.46 seconds.

play

0:53

Bills play lights out in Week 13 win over Steelers

Alaina Getzenberg breaks down Bills performance in Bills 26-7 win over the Steelers.

How Buffalo got rid of the ball quickly was interesting. Unlike the game against Houston, when Allen spent much of his time in the gun, Brady put Allen under center on 37% of his dropbacks -- a new high this season. The Bills faked a give on 37% of Allen's dropbacks, as well (second highest). In the first quarter, Allen had no under-center dropbacks. But by the second quarter, the under-center, play-action fake became the featured cog of the offense, and the passing game woke up.

Why? Because the Bills were running the ball in dominant fashion. James Cook III ended the day with 32 carries for 144 yards. Ray Davis contributed another 62 yards on nine carries. Allen ran it eight more times for 38 yards. It is perplexing to say about a team employing the reigning MVP at quarterback, but the Bills' offense has been remarkably better this season when it commits to the ground game.

Consider the Bills' frustrating losses this season. Against the Falcons, who sported one of the league's worst run defenses at the time, the Bills called passes on 63% of their snaps. That wasn't a function of the game script, either -- they had a pass rate over expectation of 3.6%, per Next Gen Stats. Against the Dolphins in Week 10, the Bills were 71% pass, 29% run -- a huge skew. Again, adjusting for game script, the Bills had a big pass rate over expectation of plus-5.5%.

The Bills' previous single-game high for run rate over expectation was plus-4.6%. Against the Steelers, it was plus-20.4%. You'd think such an approach is keeping Allen, the team's Lamborghini, parked in the garage. I think it's the Bills finally recognizing that they have two Lamborghinis.

Over the past two seasons, the Bills' running game has shown signs of Eagles- or Ravens-esque dominance thanks to a talented offensive line led by a great OL coach in Aaron Kromer, as well as a remarkably underrated back in Cook. Cook doesn't have the true third gear that the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs does, and he accordingly hits fewer home runs. He doesn't have the frame that the Colts' Jonathan Taylor does, and he accordingly breaks fewer tackles. But while Cook's physical traits are more great than elite, his vision and feel are truly top tier.

Cook has 231 carries and has been stuffed for no gain or a loss only 26 times. Only five backs in the NGS era have had 200-plus carries and a lower stuff rate than Cook; one of the five is his own 2023 season.

When the Bills commit to a run-first approach on offense, they roll their opponents. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt spoke about this after the game, specifically Buffalo's use of a run concept called Duo. He said, "I've never seen a team run the same play as much as they ran it today and have as much success as they had. I'm out of words for it."

This brings us back to Allen and the passing game. If the running game is bulldozing that effectively, shouldn't play-action passes result in deep shots? Single-high coverages, loaded boxes, biting linebackers, etc.?

Ideally, yes. But deep passing is much more a wide receiver stat than a quarterbacking stat. Take deep accuracy: When the ball is in the air for an extended period of time, a receiver's ability to quickly track and adjust to the throw is the difference between a ball that looks accurate and one that looks inaccurate. Faster receivers are good for uncovering on a runway but bad at catching through contact from incoming safeties; bigger receivers are great at boxing out cornerbacks at the catch point but require chemistry and trust. Some throws in shallower regions of the field still require some of these traits, of course, but some are just point and shoot. This is not the case further downfield. Every throw is in the air long enough that its accuracy is dramatically affected by the receiver tracking it.

Watch Allen's dropbacks on Sunday, and you'll see open receivers further downfield. Here's Brandin Cooks uncovering in the intermediate middle in a big void between zones.

Here's Tyrell Shavers with a step on a deep corner route on a play-action boot.

But Allen has attempted one pass to Cooks and 17 passes to Shavers (a couple of which have been deep). He's not going to start holding the football longer than he needs to (especially after being sacked eight times against the Texans) to push the ball downfield in a game that his defense and run game were controlling. That's mature quarterbacking -- something he was not displaying earlier this season, when frustrating first halves spiraled into pressing in the passing game (Atlanta, Miami, Houston).

Remember when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense lost the deep ball in 2023? We all blamed two-high shells for ruining the sport. But it wasn't a change in Mahomes' capacity or a schematic revolution. It was a reflection of the Chiefs' receiving room. Teams with bad receivers can't keep throwing deep against shell coverage because those are the throws on which receivers need to be spectacular and carry more of the burden for making them accurate. The same thing is happening in Buffalo.

Of course, the Bills can't throw in the towel on the downfield passing game completely -- and they won't. But not every team is equipped to win games in which they cannot rip off chunk gains through the air, and Buffalo is fortunate to be one of those precious few that can. It is a win for general manager Brandon Beane, who built this offensive line and running backs room with few missteps. It is a win for Brady, who leans heavily on his college background to find a ton of production on swings and screens. It is a win for Kromer, as the Bills' offensive line is one of the best-coached units in football. It is a win for the Bills' tight ends and receivers, all of whom are high-effort blockers with buy-in on running downs. And it is a win for Allen, who stepped aside and let the running back room try on the superhero cape in this one.

The Bills can win playoff games like this. Not 1.6 yards downfield, exactly, but 6 or 7. But they certainly don't have the wide receiver talent to win games 11 or 12 yards downfield. That's a 2026 offseason problem. For 2025, this is the path up the mountain for the Buffalo offense.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

TL:DR

 

Our WRs suck and RB/OL are awesome. Don't get Josh killed.

 

You're welcome 😎

Edited 1 hour ago by TheyCallMeAndy

[GoBills808]

Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Can someone hook up a TL:DR?

we are playing offense the way we want to

[Sweats]

I'm okay with being a run-first team..........at least it is some form of identity.

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

If they're going to show 2 high looks, run at them until they change it.  We aren't fast enough to attack the boundary through the air, but if they do - there needs to be an element of misdirection like a play action, a screen, a double move, etc.  The outside leverage screen isn't working that well these days.  

[gonzo1105]

I’m also okay with being a run first team as well. I just need this team to also be able to throw the ball in clutch situations that isn’t a screen or swing route to a Running back 

[TheFunPolice]

10 days ago the sky was falling because the Texans dominated the Bills offense. 

 

Now we're a Super Bowl team whose running game cannot be stopped. 

 

I'm always happy with a W but people have gone way too far overboard because of a bad Steelers team. 

 

The offense scored 19 points, even with all the running success. Luckily, Pittsburgh's offense is so bad they can barely score 1 TD per game. Against good teams with potent offenses that is going to be tough. 

Edited 50 minutes ago by TheFunPolice

[Gregg]

I wish this offense was built more like the early 90's teams. They would run it with Thurman, but Kelly could also make big plays in the passing game with Reed and Lofton to throw too. Allen doesn't have that option.

[RyanC883]

a run-first team is fine.  The issue is that when we need to pass (or even want to) there is likely no WR open.  We need a downfield threat to complement the run.  

[Sweats]

Our run game is going to keep working, until it doesn't........and i have yet to see what our Plan B is.

[Niagara Dude]

57 minutes ago, First Round Bust said:

extracted from Dec 2 espn.com online (public info) - author - Ben Solak - raises some good points with stats and details such as Josh quick decisions and release times.

 

Note the embedded videos from the Pitts game of Cooks uncovering in the intermediate middle in a big void between zones and Shavers  with a step on a deep corner route on a play-action boot.did not translate so you may need to go back to espn.com to watch those to witness our receivers ACTUALLY SEPARATING.

 

PS...Don't shoot the messenger..but do read for comprehension..

 

 

ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen did not throw the football downfield on Sunday.

Literally. He had zero attempts 20-plus yards downfield. In 136 games across Allen's career, only six have come without a pass 20-plus yards downfield. Four of those six games have come this season.

As the deep ball vanishes from Allen's game, his overall air yards per attempt drops in concert. Allen's 7.3 air yards per attempt is a new career low, and if that number holds, it'll be the eighth season in a row in which Allen's average depth of target has dropped from the previous season, encompassing every year of his career. (To be fair, rookie Josh Allen was hucking that thing. A decrease was inevitable.)

Even in that backdrop, this game against the Steelers stands out. Allen averaged 1.6 air yards per attempt, almost half the distance of his previous single-game low (3.1). There have been only five games in the past 15 NFL seasons with an air yards per attempt below 2.0 yards.

It's obviously not good to have the entire passing game live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nobody is in Orchard Park, New York, celebrating a fully realized offensive game plan that reflected the Bills' identity and demonstrated their prowess as an AFC contender.

However ... this was a very encouraging game for the Bills' offense! It was a sign of growth from offensive coordinator Joe Brady! It's the version of the offense that can actually win a Super Bowl!

Let's start with the obvious: Both starting tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, were out. Just last week against the Texans, we saw what would happen if Allen tried to hang in the pocket for any period of time, and that was with both starting tackles playing (albeit Brown was clearly hurt). Against the Steelers, whose defensive strength is the edge rush, it was important to get rid of the ball quickly. Just as it was the shallowest depth of target of Allen's career, it was his fifth quickest in time to throw at 2.46 seconds.

play

0:53

Bills play lights out in Week 13 win over Steelers

Alaina Getzenberg breaks down Bills performance in Bills 26-7 win over the Steelers.

How Buffalo got rid of the ball quickly was interesting. Unlike the game against Houston, when Allen spent much of his time in the gun, Brady put Allen under center on 37% of his dropbacks -- a new high this season. The Bills faked a give on 37% of Allen's dropbacks, as well (second highest). In the first quarter, Allen had no under-center dropbacks. But by the second quarter, the under-center, play-action fake became the featured cog of the offense, and the passing game woke up.

Why? Because the Bills were running the ball in dominant fashion. James Cook III ended the day with 32 carries for 144 yards. Ray Davis contributed another 62 yards on nine carries. Allen ran it eight more times for 38 yards. It is perplexing to say about a team employing the reigning MVP at quarterback, but the Bills' offense has been remarkably better this season when it commits to the ground game.

Consider the Bills' frustrating losses this season. Against the Falcons, who sported one of the league's worst run defenses at the time, the Bills called passes on 63% of their snaps. That wasn't a function of the game script, either -- they had a pass rate over expectation of 3.6%, per Next Gen Stats. Against the Dolphins in Week 10, the Bills were 71% pass, 29% run -- a huge skew. Again, adjusting for game script, the Bills had a big pass rate over expectation of plus-5.5%.

The Bills' previous single-game high for run rate over expectation was plus-4.6%. Against the Steelers, it was plus-20.4%. You'd think such an approach is keeping Allen, the team's Lamborghini, parked in the garage. I think it's the Bills finally recognizing that they have two Lamborghinis.

Over the past two seasons, the Bills' running game has shown signs of Eagles- or Ravens-esque dominance thanks to a talented offensive line led by a great OL coach in Aaron Kromer, as well as a remarkably underrated back in Cook. Cook doesn't have the true third gear that the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs does, and he accordingly hits fewer home runs. He doesn't have the frame that the Colts' Jonathan Taylor does, and he accordingly breaks fewer tackles. But while Cook's physical traits are more great than elite, his vision and feel are truly top tier.

Cook has 231 carries and has been stuffed for no gain or a loss only 26 times. Only five backs in the NGS era have had 200-plus carries and a lower stuff rate than Cook; one of the five is his own 2023 season.

When the Bills commit to a run-first approach on offense, they roll their opponents. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt spoke about this after the game, specifically Buffalo's use of a run concept called Duo. He said, "I've never seen a team run the same play as much as they ran it today and have as much success as they had. I'm out of words for it."

This brings us back to Allen and the passing game. If the running game is bulldozing that effectively, shouldn't play-action passes result in deep shots? Single-high coverages, loaded boxes, biting linebackers, etc.?

Ideally, yes. But deep passing is much more a wide receiver stat than a quarterbacking stat. Take deep accuracy: When the ball is in the air for an extended period of time, a receiver's ability to quickly track and adjust to the throw is the difference between a ball that looks accurate and one that looks inaccurate. Faster receivers are good for uncovering on a runway but bad at catching through contact from incoming safeties; bigger receivers are great at boxing out cornerbacks at the catch point but require chemistry and trust. Some throws in shallower regions of the field still require some of these traits, of course, but some are just point and shoot. This is not the case further downfield. Every throw is in the air long enough that its accuracy is dramatically affected by the receiver tracking it.

Watch Allen's dropbacks on Sunday, and you'll see open receivers further downfield. Here's Brandin Cooks uncovering in the intermediate middle in a big void between zones.

Here's Tyrell Shavers with a step on a deep corner route on a play-action boot.

But Allen has attempted one pass to Cooks and 17 passes to Shavers (a couple of which have been deep). He's not going to start holding the football longer than he needs to (especially after being sacked eight times against the Texans) to push the ball downfield in a game that his defense and run game were controlling. That's mature quarterbacking -- something he was not displaying earlier this season, when frustrating first halves spiraled into pressing in the passing game (Atlanta, Miami, Houston).

Remember when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense lost the deep ball in 2023? We all blamed two-high shells for ruining the sport. But it wasn't a change in Mahomes' capacity or a schematic revolution. It was a reflection of the Chiefs' receiving room. Teams with bad receivers can't keep throwing deep against shell coverage because those are the throws on which receivers need to be spectacular and carry more of the burden for making them accurate. The same thing is happening in Buffalo.

Of course, the Bills can't throw in the towel on the downfield passing game completely -- and they won't. But not every team is equipped to win games in which they cannot rip off chunk gains through the air, and Buffalo is fortunate to be one of those precious few that can. It is a win for general manager Brandon Beane, who built this offensive line and running backs room with few missteps. It is a win for Brady, who leans heavily on his college background to find a ton of production on swings and screens. It is a win for Kromer, as the Bills' offensive line is one of the best-coached units in football. It is a win for the Bills' tight ends and receivers, all of whom are high-effort blockers with buy-in on running downs. And it is a win for Allen, who stepped aside and let the running back room try on the superhero cape in this one.

The Bills can win playoff games like this. Not 1.6 yards downfield, exactly, but 6 or 7. But they certainly don't have the wide receiver talent to win games 11 or 12 yards downfield. That's a 2026 offseason problem. For 2025, this is the path up the mountain for the Buffalo offense.

I don't mind winning games running the ball,  but i do believe we need to reestablished a down the field passing threat or guys are just going to come closer and closer to the line before the snap. You cannot think your going to play against offences like the Steelers that don't score and expect to keep up by running on first and second downs.  It's a passing league ,  that is why the teams with the top QB'S are always on top

[BillsFanForever19]

It's okay to be a Run First team....

 

It's not okay to be a Run ONLY team.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

It's okay to be a Run First team....

 

It's not okay to be a Run ONLY team.

 

Just like the Super Bowl teams. Thurman was the heart and soul of those offenses, but Kelly could also air it out with Reed and Lofton. Very balanced offense they had back then.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just get the wins any possible way. 

 

From what they have said this is what the team believes. Josh is all on board with it. If he throws for 400 yards or 150...I truly don't think he or the teams care as long as they win.

 

Problem comes from the fans. Statements like "We waited for a generational QB" all boils down to two things. Thing one...it's not as much fun to watch. Buffalo really is a boring team. And that can be a good thing the second boils down to people upset that the Bills don't win in a manner that they envision a good football team would in 2025. We aren't the Rams or the Lions flinging it all over the field and taking risks. It's bland boring football. But it's winning games.

[MJS]

35 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

10 days ago the sky was falling because the Texans dominated the Bills offense. 

 

Now we're a Super Bowl team whose running game cannot be stopped. 

 

I'm always happy with a W but people have gone way too far overboard because of a bad Steelers team. 

 

The offense scored 19 points, even with all the running success. Luckily, Pittsburgh's offense is so bad they can barely score 1 TD per game. Against good teams with potent offenses that is going to be tough. 

Pittsburgh actually has an average offense. They are 15th in yards and 15th in points per game (23.4). Its not like they are a bottom 5 offense or anything. The Bills made them look much worse than they actually are.