ESPN NFL playoff machine up and running

[Bills fan since 87]

Some prefer the NY Times playoff predictor but I like this one, you can pick game by game and playoffs spots update with each pick:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

I keep coming up with us as a 6 or 7 seed, which is fine as we would miss 4 seed Baltimore 

 

 

[ngbills]

Auto simulations:

Offensive ranking - Bills #5 vs Bal #4; KC is #6, NE#2

Defensive ranking - Bills #7 vs NE #2; KC is out, CLE and HOU in

 

 

 

 

[Gregthekeg]

I think the pats start to slide, they havent beaten a good team yet (Bills beat themselves) After looking at this I am even more confident that they will be higher than pats and chiefs. AFCC game in Buffalo in the snow, to the Superbowl!

[Bills fan since 87]

7 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Auto simulations:

Offensive ranking - Bills #5 vs Bal #4; KC is #6, NE#2

Defensive ranking - Bills #7 vs NE #2; KC is out, CLE and HOU in

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I don't do the auto sims, just go through game by game and see what it lays out.  Then go back and play around with swing games.  I'lll probably do this about 200 times before week 18, I love this thing 

[Mags]

Saw that it was available so I figured that I would just share and give everybody something to mess around with.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[Antonio]

For all of us that enjoy playing with different scenarios, the ESPN Playoffs Machine is active.

 

ESPN Playoffs Machine - Playoffs Predictor

 

I wanted to check how hard it is for the Bills to get the No. 1 overall seed and by week 15 I made that happen with a realistic scenario:

 

1. Bills get on a roll and win all this games on a hard streach that includes games @Texans, @Pittsburgh & @New England. BILLS 11-3.

2. Colts lose @ KC next week and win the rest of their games. COLTS 11-3.

3. New England drops their hot streak of 8 consecutive win games @Cincinnati and of course, they lose against the Bills at home. NE 10-4.

4. KC wins all their games and are the 3rd Seed. KC 10-4.

 

I think that up until that point, it is not impossible to happen, but the bad news is that we pretty much need to stay hot the rest of the way cause even if we drop one game we might end up as far as 5th seed. 

 

And before you come at me with "one game at the time", I don´t play the game, you don´t play the game so we can look ahead and have some fun. 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Antonio

[Dick_Cheney]

Apparently everyone is too depressed to play around with this!

 

Yeah, we need a lot to go in our favor for the 1 seed. I don't think that's the goal and I don't think it's gonna happen. If we can somehow just win the division, we'll be in a good spot. 

[TheFunPolice]

I've got the Bengals leading their division at 6-6 after all week 13 games have been played, and the only "iffy" result was Bengals over Ravens on Thanksgiving. 

 

 

[Kelly to Allen]

I'm going to mess around with it. 

 

Assume the worst and see if we can get in even if 9-8 or 10-7

 

Assume the best and we go 13-4, 12-5

Edited 1 hour ago by Kelly to Allen

[TheFunPolice]

Bills can also very easily get to #1 seed by ripping off a few wins in a row and KC beating Denver and Indy 

 

One thing that playing with this tool proves: so much football left to be played and so much can still happen 

 

The Chargers, Bills, Patriots, Broncos, and Colts all have viable shots at the #1 seed 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by TheFunPolice

[BuffaloMatt]

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

Yea, but it’s only been since 2020 that only the 1 seed gets a bye.  That’s one less game to lose, one less game to get injured, and a huge advantage versus any other seed.  Also, what’s the distribution of AFC seeds that have gone into the SB since 1976?  Even though “only” 15 times for one seeds, I presume it’s still more than any other seed.  That same relationship likely holds for the NFC too.

[May Day 10]

I don't believe this build of the team is capable of ripping off that many games in a row.  Extremely 1-dimensional on offense and a paper tiger on defense.  If a team stops their run-game, and knows every time tecmo Joe Brady dials up the screen to Shakir, they are punting a bunch.

 

Tampa and Houston's defenses are a big test.

[QCity]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

 

You can't compare 1976 to today because the rules have changed (multiple times). The most recent change was 2019 which gave 1 team per conference the bye. A week off after a 17 game season and 2 home games to get the the Superbowl is a pretty big deal now.

[BuffaloMatt]

37 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

You can't compare 1976 to today because the rules have changed (multiple times). The most recent change was 2019 which gave 1 team per conference the bye. A week off after a 17 game season and 2 home games to get the the Superbowl is a pretty big deal now.

OK - So then in 6 years ONLY the Chiefs have done it. Still no great shakes to be one seed. 

39 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yea, but it’s only been since 2020 that only the 1 seed gets a bye.  That’s one less game to lose, one less game to get injured, and a huge advantage versus any other seed.  Also, what’s the distribution of AFC seeds that have gone into the SB since 1976?  Even though “only” 15 times for one seeds, I presume it’s still more than any other seed.  That same relationship likely holds for the NFC too.

Only the chiefs have done it since then in 2022. 

Edited 54 minutes ago by BuffaloMatt

[Rubes]

Just a few days ago everybody here was ready to jump off a bridge...now we're all looking at how we can get a #1 seed!

 

I love this place.

 

[frostbitmic]

AFC-

1. KC 13-4

2. Indy 12-5

3. New England 12-5

4. Baltimore 11 -6

5. Denver 13-4

6. LA 11-6

7. Buffalo 11-6

 

NFC -

1. Philadelphia 15-2

2. LA 14-3

3. Detroit 13-4

4. Tampa 13-4

5. San Francisco 12-5

6. Seattle 12-5

7. Green Bay 10-6-1

. 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Dick_Cheney said:

Apparently everyone is too depressed to play around with this!

 

Yeah, we need a lot to go in our favor for the 1 seed. I don't think that's the goal and I don't think it's gonna happen. If we can somehow just win the division, we'll be in a good spot. 

Sorry, was making sure I was all stocked up on bleach and my garage door is air tight.  
 

You were saying?

[QCity]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

OK - So then in 6 years ONLY the Chiefs have done it. Still no great shakes to be one seed. 

Only the chiefs have done since then in 2022. 

 

There have been 6 Superbowls played since the 2019 playoff changes and 5 of those games had a #1 seed playing in it. Saying "ONLY the Chiefs have done it" when they've done it 3 times is a bit disingenuous. It's never been more important.

[BuffaloMatt]

3 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

There have been 6 Superbowls played since the 2019 playoff changes and 5 of those games had a #1 seed playing in it. Saying "ONLY the Chiefs have done it" when they've done it 3 times is a bit disingenuous. It's never been more important.

Valid