Playoffs Machine Up and Running

[Antonio]

For all of us that enjoy playing with different scenarios, the ESPN Playoffs Machine is active.

 

ESPN Playoffs Machine - Playoffs Predictor

 

I wanted to check how hard it is for the Bills to get the No. 1 overall seed and by week 15 I made that happen with a realistic scenario:

 

1. Bills get on a roll and win all this games on a hard streach that includes games @Texans, @Pittsburgh & @New England. BILLS 11-3.

2. Colts lose @ KC next week and win the rest of their games. COLTS 11-3.

3. New England drops their hot streak of 8 consecutive win games @Cincinnati and of course, they lose against the Bills at home. NE 10-4.

4. KC wins all their games and are the 3rd Seed. KC 10-4.

 

I think that up until that point, it is not impossible to happen, but the bad news is that we pretty much need to stay hot the rest of the way cause even if we drop one game we might end up as far as 5th seed. 

 

And before you come at me with "one game at the time", I don´t play the game, you don´t play the game so we can look ahead and have some fun. 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Antonio

[Dick_Cheney]

Apparently everyone is too depressed to play around with this!

 

Yeah, we need a lot to go in our favor for the 1 seed. I don't think that's the goal and I don't think it's gonna happen. If we can somehow just win the division, we'll be in a good spot. 

[TheFunPolice]

I've got the Bengals leading their division at 6-6 after all week 13 games have been played, and the only "iffy" result was Bengals over Ravens on Thanksgiving. 

 

 

[Kelly to Allen]

I'm going to mess around with it. 

 

Assume the worst and see if we can get in even if 9-8 or 10-7

 

Assume the best and we go 13-4, 12-5

Edited 27 minutes ago by Kelly to Allen

[TheFunPolice]

Bills can also very easily get to #1 seed by ripping off a few wins in a row and KC beating Denver and Indy 

 

One thing that playing with this tool proves: so much football left to be played and so much can still happen 

 

The Chargers, Bills, Patriots, Broncos, and Colts all have viable shots at the #1 seed 

 

 

Edited 32 minutes ago by TheFunPolice

[BuffaloMatt]

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

Yea, but it’s only been since 2020 that only the 1 seed gets a bye.  That’s one less game to lose, one less game to get injured, and a huge advantage versus any other seed.  Also, what’s the distribution of AFC seeds that have gone into the SB since 1976?  Even though “only” 15 times for one seeds, I presume it’s still more than any other seed.  That same relationship likely holds for the NFC too.

[May Day 10]

I don't believe this build of the team is capable of ripping off that many games in a row.  Extremely 1-dimensional on offense and a paper tiger on defense.  If a team stops their run-game, and knows every time tecmo Joe Brady dials up the screen to Shakir, they are punting a bunch.

 

Tampa and Houston's defenses are a big test.

[QCity]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

 

One seed is not all it's cracked up to be. Since 1976 (almost 50 years), fifteen AFC one seeds have gone to SB. Six won. 

 

You can't compare 1976 to today because the rules have changed (multiple times). The most recent change was 2019 which gave 1 team per conference the bye. A week off after a 17 game season and 2 home games to get the the Superbowl is a pretty big deal now.