Roy's Mid-Season AFL Power Grouping

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks for a great post. I only disagree wrt Reid getting fired. The man is great, and was very good Alex Smith, let alone Mahomes. McDermott is not close to being in his class imo.

With all the injuries we've seen under McDermott I think he's done a remarkable job. He's similar to Reid in his Philly years. Yet I won't say he can lead us to a title as so many of our playoffs defeats came from a few plays missed by our offense or defense and the refs.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

16 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

With all the injuries we've seen under McDermott I think he's done a remarkable job. He's similar to Reid in his Philly years. Yet I won't say he can lead us to a title as so many of our playoffs defeats came from a few plays missed by our offense or defense and the refs.

the ultimate irony would be if McDermott got fired by Buffalo and went on to win it with another team. 

[The Jokeman]

15 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

the ultimate irony would be if McDermott got fired by Buffalo and went on to win it with another team. 

I understand why people want to let him go but the landscape out there not overly enticing to me.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Oh to be an ascending team.

 

I remember how fun that was.

 

This iteration is one foot in the grave 

[Thurman#1]

Using this method, Brady and the Pats would have been graded as declining in most of the middle ten seasons of the Brady & Belichick era.  In 2009, they started 7-5  and it was clearly the beginning of the end, till it wasn't. In 2011, they started 5-3 and people said it was over, till it wasn't. The 2012 Pats started 3-3, so clearly they were on the downside, except they weren't, going 12-4 that year. In 2013, they were 7-3. Same with Peyton Manning and the Colts in the middle of his career. The 2002 Colts started 3-4. Clearly they were on the descent, except they weren't. The 2004 Colts were 4-3, until they went 12-4. Again, they obviously were descending, until they weren't.

 

The Bills are 6 - 3. That's still an excellent record. No particular reason to think they're declining besides recency bias. They sure didn't look like they were declining after Chiefs week.

 

Your ascending group does look like they're ascending. The great likelihood is that roughly two of the four will be genuine competitors over the next few years and the other two will have problems. Houston, for instance, looked very recently like they were on the upswing. Now, not so much.

 

You're likely to have hit on two or so in most of your categories.

 

But what we know is that most teams can't be understood completely till weeks probably 10 - 13, when things get clearer. We're reaching that, but it's only starting to clear up, it's not there yet. What we further know is that some of the teams that genuinely ascended this year will regress. 

 

The Bills certainly did look awful this week. It'd be hard to argue with that. You're resting your opinion too much on recent events and reactions to them. 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, PayDaBill$ said:

Leveled out? JA won an MVP with not all that much around him, mediocre wideouts and a mediocre coach.  Put Josh in LA with the Rams or San Fran and see how leveled out he is!  

 

 

Bills have a good roster. Last year too. It's ridiculous to say he doesn't have that much around him. We had an excellent OL and RB and very good TEs till injuries and not being on the same page with Josh cost Kincaid a good year. 

 

Is Josh a big part of that roster? Yeah, absolutely. But saying he's got not all that much around him is fairly ridiculous. Even the defense, having a real down year last year, caused a ton of turnovers and came together pretty well at the end of the year and into the playoffs till the rash of injuries that last week or two.

 

Having said that, I think Josh is having a down period, and I do fully expect him start hitting on all cylinders again, even if it doesn't happen this year.

Edited 19 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

First off, I made a big mistake, titled it "AFL", not AFC.

 

Secondly, Josh has at BEST leveled out, his last game was terrible,  I know it is a bummer.    Obviously he could do better on other teams but I am not addressing hypotheticals

 

Chiefs have a brutal schedule ahead wth a losing season, they will be lucky to get in the playoffs.

 

 

Um, no.

 

Regressed last game? Yeah. Regressed over the past four games or so? Fair enough. But levelled out would imply he can't be better this year. And he can, he absolutely can.

 

By no means is "levelled out" the best we can say. This could easily be "had a down month" or "had a momentary slide." The story's only part written, with more than half this season left, and years beyond that besides.

[H2o]

Here people are again talking about Josh like he still doesn't carry this team. Hilarious. Gaudy numbers or no gaudy numbers, without Josh we lose to the Ravens, probably the lowly Saints, and definitely the Chiefs. This team would be in the hunt for a top 5 pick. The only thing that's leveled out is McDermott's leadership and Brady calling plays. They should both be kicking cans at the end of the season, and I say that because I know Pegula doesn't have the balls to do it now. 

[CSBill]

14 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I am going to try something unique and power list the AFC in 4 groups.

 

Ascending Elites: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Broncos

Each team has good ownership, good QBs on the rise,  and great Head Coaches.  Any of these four I can easily envision in the Super Bowl.

 

Elite MVP Teams on the Decline:  Bills, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs

The last 7 NFL MVPs have come from these 4 teams but that streak ends this year.  Each team has above average ownership.  The recent success of these teams will keep the GM/HC safe for another year but a cogent  argument could be made for any to get fired.  All of the QBs have either peaked or at least leveled out and time is now their enemy.  These teams will need help or get on a hot streak to make a deep run in the playoffs if not even make it to the playoffs.

 

Going Nowhere:  Jaguars, Texans

High draft pick QBs that neither team will move on from.  The QBs have been mediocre to sporadic franchise players. Both teams with below average ownership with unproven Head Coaches.  These teams will need help to make the playoffs/

 

Chronic Underperforming Teams: Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Titans, Browns, Bengals

Destined for continual turnover of HC/GM, poor QB selection and injury.  Losing records and terrible owners are the hallmark of this group.  This was the denizen of the Bills from the Kelly Era up until the Pegulas.   This group will need a miracle to even make the playoffs.

 

 

 

Since what decade have the Steelers been an "Elite" team?

[Gregg]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Bills have a good roster. Last year too. It's ridiculous to say he doesn't have that much around him. We had an excellent OL and RB and very good TEs till injuries and not being on the same page with Josh cost Kincaid a good year. 

 

Is Josh a big part of that roster? Yeah, absolutely. But saying he's got not all that much around him is fairly ridiculous. Even the defense, having a real down year last year, caused a ton of turnovers and came together pretty well at the end of the year and into the playoffs till the rash of injuries that last week or two.

 

Having said that, I think Josh is having a down period, and I do fully expect him start hitting on all cylinders again, even if it doesn't happen this year.

 

This WR group is one of the worst if not the worst in the league. Shakir is a good player who should be #3 WR. He would make a great #3. The problem is he is the Bills #1 WR and he's not a #1. Kincaid is a nice player. He is not elite yet, but he is improving. I just wish he could stay healthy. As far as elite players from the skill positions on offense go its Allen and Cook. That's it. 

[oldmanfan]

10 hours ago, H2o said:

Here people are again talking about Josh like he still doesn't carry this team. Hilarious. Gaudy numbers or no gaudy numbers, without Josh we lose to the Ravens, probably the lowly Saints, and definitely the Chiefs. This team would be in the hunt for a top 5 pick. The only thing that's leveled out is McDermott's leadership and Brady calling plays. They should both be kicking cans at the end of the season, and I say that because I know Pegula doesn't have the balls to do it now. 

You can say the same thing for any team with an All Pro type QB.

 

It’s a weird year.  Parity has never been more apparent than this year.

Edited 9 hours ago by oldmanfan

[Mikie2times]

I'm confused. Most fans here wanted to look at Vrabel, Harbaugh, and Sean Payton. Then later Ben Johnson. Soon to come Klint Kubiak. 

 

We were told we would be risking everything to consider such a thing. It seems more likely we have wasted several years out of fear of failure. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

55 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I'm confused. Most fans here wanted to look at Vrabel, Harbaugh, and Sean Payton. Then later Ben Johnson. Soon to come Klint Kubiak. 

 

We were told we would be risking everything to consider such a thing. It seems more likely we have wasted several years out of fear of failure. 

Making the playoffs, painting your face, and celebrating silly holiday movies is likely enough for a large group of fans … McProcess gives them that, but they’re likely never going to get more, and they’re ok with that. This status quo isn’t going to net you a championship