ESPN comments on Bills-Chiefs game

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, Brand J said:

The Chiefs in their losses have never looked outclassed. They haven’t been thoroughly beaten, the Ls they took against the Eagles, Chargers, and Jaguars were close. They’ve thoroughly smacked two supposed contenders in Baltimore and Detroit. Contrast that with the Bills…

 

The Bills looked outclassed and bullied for 3.5 quarters against the Ravens. The Falcons smacked them in a prime time game; won by 10, but could’ve easily been 17+. The Bills have also played down to their competition, the Saints and Dolphins both had chances to take a lead late. When you throw all of these ingredients into a pot and analyze them, it’s no wonder the Chiefs are favored, they’ve been playing better ball despite having one more loss.
 

This could be the perfect “get right” game for the Bills. Or an ugly loss.

McDermott probably will never win a Super Bowl, but his teams do very well in this spot, just like they did last week vs Carolina (coming off two losses and the bye)…

[CoudyBills]

12 hours ago, Success said:

 

Well, they do have a worse record.  They realistically might not win their division.

 

Maybe they are.  But it seems like recency bias to draw that conclusion.

 

As recent as the last 5 years

[chris heff]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

Bills victories over bottom dwelling Jets, Dolphins and Saints did not really establish them as the "class of the AFC".  If you though that, that was the false narrative. 

But beating the Giants, Raiders and depleted Commanders does?

[Buffalo ill]

The best thing Bills fans can do is not care what talking heads say about the team.  That and realize the Bills kind of are paper tigers until they prove otherwise.

[BVBILLS]

The Bills are being counted out now, they could right the ship today. What a great opportunity!

[zow2]

The thing we love about sports is that it’s not scripted and it’s unpredictable.  The Bills and Josh could get their mojo back today. KC isn’t some unbeatable force. But we are all aware if KC plays like they have been, and the Bills play like they did vs Pats and Atlanta, we will lose.  So there ya go. Just watch and try to enjoy it 

[boyst]

I think we need to find a way to use nickel with Lewis entering the field too. Not a dime package but a double nickel.

 

This worked in the playoffs when we couldn't put Klein in on a tight end. 

[nedboy7]

Bills have the potential to be the better team if the coaches can make sound decisions. 

[dcinmuncie]

11 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I’m counting on this. I have a big teaser with Balt + Bills (+8). It’s guaranteed money in my book. 

Do you mind explaining what you mean by this? I’m not following 

[Dukestreetking]

11 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

Nothing is guaranteed but having made a living handicapping Sports for over 30 years this is a spot usually the home underdog covers and wins outright.

 

BtK: very interesting insight. Most appreciated.

 

Meanwhile: please post more often! A professional handicapper is profoundly interesting to me, and perhaps others here.

 

LAMP-ish: I've personally been in many "challenging" life-death situations, but certain I couldn't be a professional gambler. Somehow, when actual, serious $$ involved...I would weep like a toddler.

[Rew]

21 minutes ago, dcinmuncie said:

Do you mind explaining what you mean by this? I’m not following 

He's talking about a parlay type bet.  When you mix together more than one outcome in a combined bet.  The odds of each of these events happening may be good, but by combining them the reduced odds of them both happening result in a higher payout than independent bets would each have.  This lets you feel like and root for more probable events, but still have the upside of betting longshots.

 

A teaser is a parlay where you can adjust one or more of the betting lines to adjust the odds of the overall parlay.  Usually this is for a bet that you really like, but stick in another side bet to get the payoff you want for the package.

 

In this case he seems to feel that Bal winning straight up is a lock, and the bills +8 is a lock.  In this scenario the "main bet" for him is probably the Ravens straight up, but he "teased" it with Bills +8 to improve the payout for what he feels to be little additional risk.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, dcinmuncie said:

Do you mind explaining what you mean by this? I’m not following 

Balt already won so I need Bills to win or lose by 7 or less to collect. That’s a lock to me. 

3 hours ago, chris heff said:

But beating the Giants, Raiders and depleted Commanders does?

No, but add in Det and it sure does. 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Rew said:

 

In this case he seems to feel that Bal winning straight up is a lock, and the bills +8 is a lock.  In this scenario the "main bet" for him is probably the Ravens straight up, but he "teased" it with Bills +8 to improve the payout for what he feels to be little additional risk.

Teasers are a little different than parlays. You don’t win exponentially to your bet amount. It’s like a single bet where you’d have to lay juice. The benefit you get is 6pts to your bets. Both teams have to hit for you to collect. 
 

With this teaser I had Bal to win straight up against Miami on Thursday plus Bills getting +8 pts.

[chris heff]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Balt already won so I need Bills to win or lose by 7 or less to collect. That’s a lock to me. 

No, but add in Det and it sure does. 

So if you beat one good team you’re great, got it.

[90sBills]

12 minutes ago, chris heff said:

So if you beat one good team you’re great, got it.

Yeah that’s exactly what that means. Guess that’s 1 more than the Bills so it makes sense.