ESPN comments on Bills-Chiefs game

[Desert Bills Fan]

Some interesting opinions on the Game:

 

Bowen: Key matchup to watch

Chiefs coach Andy Reid vs. the Bills' foundational coverages

Walder mentioned the Bills' strength at defending the middle of the field, but another wrinkle to consider is their reliance on zone coverage. Buffalo runs zone on 69.5% of opponent dropbacks (eighth most in the NFL), so Reid can work to scheme throws for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Think leveled routes here, with vertical clear-out routes to lift the safeties and open the coverage voids for intermediate targets.

A specific player to watch? Travis Kelce, who just had a season-high 99 receiving yards against the Commanders. I think he will be a major part of the matchup.

 

Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 9

UNDER 52.5 points in Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is not built like the old version that lived on chunk plays. The Bills are run-focused, averaging a league-high 164.4 rushing yards per game, and are willing to take what is given to them. Meanwhile, Kansas City dictates pace, uses the run and leans on possession and patience.

The Bills' injuries on the interior defensive line (defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out indefinitely with a torn biceps) could matter, but that does not automatically turn this into a shootout. Instead, this matchup could turn into a ball control script, as both teams are within the top three leaguewide in time of possession. This one will be tight, physical and decided by execution -- not explosive plays.

 

i sure hope Kelce does not go off on us.

and I would like a tight ball control game where Cook is our hero!

[Success]

I think the Chiefs are a little better than us this year.

 

But I'm not sure if that matters when it comes to this match-up.  So far, I think our Bills have been in a bit of sleepwalk mode - but this game always brings out their best.

 

This is a "whoever has the ball last" game, imo.

 

[dorquemada]

If we let Kelce roam free we deserve to lose.  You have to wonder what kind of mental gymnastics it requires to not jam the guy and double cover him

[Psautcsk]

Just now, dorquemada said:

If we let Kelce roam free we deserve to lose.  You have to wonder what kind of mental gymnastics it requires to not jam the guy and double cover him

Have you seen any team do it throughout an entire game?

[PauleeeWalnuts]

3 minutes ago, Success said:

I think the Chiefs are a little better than us this year.

 

But I'm not sure if that matters when it comes to this match-up.  So far, I think our Bills have been in a bit of sleepwalk mode - but this game always brings out their best.

 

This is a "whoever has the ball last" game, imo.

 

I think the Chiefs are a lot better than us this year. 

[Success]

9 minutes ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

I think the Chiefs are a lot better than us this year. 

 

Well, they do have a worse record.  They realistically might not win their division.

 

Maybe they are.  But it seems like recency bias to draw that conclusion.

 

[philholbroo]

bills by 11

 

[Einstein]

22 minutes ago, Success said:

I think the Chiefs are a little better than us this year.

 

But I'm not sure if that matters when it comes to this match-up.  So far, I think our Bills have been in a bit of sleepwalk mode - but this game always brings out their best.

 

This is a "whoever has the ball last" game, imo.

 

 

If we werent the walking IR squad I’d probably agree with this take. 

[gonzo1105]

I expect the Bills to run a lot more man against the Chiefs than the 70% zone they showed this year. They tried to play straight man coverage in the playoff game with Kaiir Elam 

Edited 4 hours ago by gonzo1105

[Mailman]

19 minutes ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

I think the Chiefs are a lot better than us this year. 

What an absolute joke. After 4 weeks, the Bills were the class of the AFC, and the Chiefs were flailing. 4 games later, and this is the narrative?  Makes me sick. 

[90sBills]

47 minutes ago, Mailman said:

What an absolute joke. After 4 weeks, the Bills were the class of the AFC, and the Chiefs were flailing. 4 games later, and this is the narrative?  Makes me sick. 

Losing to Atlanta will do that. 

[Chaos]

50 minutes ago, Mailman said:

What an absolute joke. After 4 weeks, the Bills were the class of the AFC, and the Chiefs were flailing. 4 games later, and this is the narrative?  Makes me sick. 

Bills victories over bottom dwelling Jets, Dolphins and Saints did not really establish them as the "class of the AFC".  If you though that, that was the false narrative. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

58 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Well, they do have a worse record.  They realistically might not win their division.

 

Maybe they are.  But it seems like recency bias to draw that conclusion.

 

Agree. I do think over the last month or so they have played better than us. However, I'm hoping seeing the Chiefs will elevate their game. The glass half full outlook is that the Bills have seemed to play to the level of their opponents this year. Hopefully that continues and they elevate their game. 

 

If we eliminate the stupid presnap penalties and execute well we can win this game. And I believe we will.

[bigK14094]

If Milano and Bernard can play, it will make a big difference.

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Getting dominated by Atlanta will do that. 

Fixed it for you. They easily could’ve beaten the Bills by 3 or more scores if not for some unfortunate miscues. 

[stevestojan]

Kelce will be left wide open more than zero times which is unacceptable and just highlights our inability to do anything on defense behind the defensive line. 

[BillytheKid]

Teams just like the (Chiefs tomorrow)  who have won 3 straight home games and cover the spread in all 3 of them by double digits, then have to go on the road as a very small favorite (-1.5 or -2) versus teams that have a .700 (Bills) or better win percentage, don’t usually win so I would say the Bills have a great shot at winning tomorrow. This scenario doesn’t happen very often. 
 

Public perception is all huge recency bias and the books know that and they have already shaded the line an extra point towards the Chiefs. 
 

Nothing is guaranteed but having made a living handicapping Sports for over 30 years this is a spot usually the home underdog covers and wins outright. 
 

We shall see how tomorrow goes but Bills definitely won’t be blown out. At least 95% Chance they won’t. 
 

Most likely what happens in the worst case would be Chiefs win by 2 or 3 points.

Best case Bills win by 7+ points which has happened plenty of times in this scenario before. 
what most likely happens in most cases it comes down to a one possession game and the Bills win. 

 

Just how these exact set ups go very very very high percentage of the time historically. 
 

Bills 65% chance of winning this game tomorrow based on this set up historically. Better chance than what most of you probably think. 

 

[Brand J]

The Chiefs in their losses have never looked outclassed. They haven’t been thoroughly beaten, the Ls they took against the Eagles, Chargers, and Jaguars were close. They’ve thoroughly smacked two supposed contenders in Baltimore and Detroit. Contrast that with the Bills…

 

The Bills looked outclassed and bullied for 3.5 quarters against the Ravens. The Falcons smacked them in a prime time game; won by 10, but could’ve easily been 17+. The Bills have also played down to their competition, the Saints and Dolphins both had chances to take a lead late. When you throw all of these ingredients into a pot and analyze them, it’s no wonder the Chiefs are favored, they’ve been playing better ball despite having one more loss.
 

This could be the perfect “get right” game for the Bills. Or an ugly loss.

[Shortchaz]

10 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

Teams just like the (Chiefs tomorrow)  who have won 3 straight home games and cover the spread in all 3 of them by double digits, then have to go on the road as a very small favorite (-1.5 or -2) versus teams that have a .700 (Bills) or better win percentage, don’t usually win so I would say the Bills have a great shot at winning tomorrow. This scenario doesn’t happen very often. 
 

Public perception is all huge recency bias and the books know that and they have already shaded the line an extra point towards the Chiefs. 
 

Nothing is guaranteed but having made a living handicapping Sports for over 30 years this is a spot usually the home underdog covers and wins outright. 
 

We shall see how tomorrow goes but Bills definitely won’t be blown out. At least 95% Chance they won’t. 
 

Most likely what happens in the worst case would be Chiefs win by 2 or 3 points.

Best case Bills win by 7+ points which has happened plenty of times in this scenario before. 
what most likely happens in most cases it comes down to a one possession game and the Bills win. 

 

Just how these exact set ups go very very very high percentage of the time historically. 
 

Bills 65% chance of winning this game tomorrow based on this set up historically. Better chance than what most of you probably think. 

 

Bills have a 100% chance of being out-coached 

[90sBills]

16 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

Teams just like the (Chiefs tomorrow)  who have won 3 straight home games and cover the spread in all 3 of them by double digits, then have to go on the road as a very small favorite (-1.5 or -2) versus teams that have a .700 (Bills) or better win percentage, don’t usually win so I would say the Bills have a great shot at winning tomorrow. This scenario doesn’t happen very often. 
 

Public perception is all huge recency bias and the books know that and they have already shaded the line an extra point towards the Chiefs. 
 

Nothing is guaranteed but having made a living handicapping Sports for over 30 years this is a spot usually the home underdog covers and wins outright. 
 

We shall see how tomorrow goes but Bills definitely won’t be blown out. At least 95% Chance they won’t. 
 

Most likely what happens in the worst case would be Chiefs win by 2 or 3 points.

Best case Bills win by 7+ points which has happened plenty of times in this scenario before. 
what most likely happens in most cases it comes down to a one possession game and the Bills win. 

 

Just how these exact set ups go very very very high percentage of the time historically. 
 

Bills 65% chance of winning this game tomorrow based on this set up historically. Better chance than what most of you probably think. 

 

I’m counting on this. I have a big teaser with Balt + Bills (+8). It’s guaranteed money in my book.