Way too early Playoff picture (not anymore)

[SCBills]

36 minutes ago, The Red King said:

Things got a *lot* rougher after last week.  We have a chance to take out Pitt., giving us a two-game and tiebreaker on them.  We've got a one-game lead and tie-breaker on KC.  Houston is a real problem.  We're only one-up on them, and they have the tiebreaker.  The Chargers and Jags are tied with us, but currently hold tiebreakers.

 

We're still in decent (not good, just decent) shape overall, given the schedules, but the margin for error just got a *lot* smaller.

Cowboys could really do everyone a solid on Thanksgiving.    They are probably the least trustworthy team ever though.   
 

Chiefs still play Texans and Chargers, so someone is losing those games. 

Chargers finish with Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, Broncos. 

 

I could easily see the Colts fighting for a WC with their schedule.  AFC South is going to beat each other up down the stretch.  If the Texans beat the Colts this weekend, they have the Chiefs the following weekend… might be time to start rooting for Houston. 
 

 

 

Edited November 25 by SCBills

[TheFunPolice]

I went through and picked the games and the Bengals won their division at 8-9

 

It's not crazy. 

 

Steelers have a lot of tough games left, and Baltimore has a couple (GB and NE). If the Bengals sweep them and win their easier ones it could happen. 

 

BTW this is with the Bills beating the Bengals. 

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

I went through and picked the games and the Bengals won their division at 8-9

 

It's not crazy. 

 

Steelers have a lot of tough games left, and Baltimore has a couple (GB and NE). If the Bengals sweep them and win their easier ones it could happen. 

 

BTW this is with the Bills beating the Bengals. 

Bengals win Thursday Night and Bills beat the Steelers and they’re 2 back with 5 to play and another Ravens game on deck. 
 

With Baltimore and Pittsburgh still playing each other twice & Baltimore having zero easy games left.   They play like they did against Browns/Jets and they’re losing a bunch more. 
 

 

Edited November 25 by SCBills

[quincy]

I did a simulation on the ESPN Playoff Machine where all postseason teams finished at 11-6 or better with the teams that lost out finishing at 9-8.

 

The 11-6 teams were Baltimore at 3, Indianapolis at 4, Jacksonville at 5, Buffalo at 6 and Kansas City at 7.

 

At 9-8 was Pittsburgh, LA Chargers and Houston. 

 

Seems to be a case of whether the AFC East has two teams in the playoffs or will either of the AFC South or AFC West have a 3rd team that makes it at our expense - the AFC South and AFC West seem to always have two teams that reach the playoffs in simulations with the West having a clear front runner in Denver and the South have a more vulnerable Indianapolis. 

 

Denver will have a massive home field advantage as the 1 with the altitude and the time zone I think.

 

New England at least is familiar and Indy will be super loud and trying to win for Irsay's legacy. 

 

Houston will be a huge danger if their offense clicks and maybe them going 3-3 is too conservative? i think the Chargers and Pittsburgh fall back miss the playoffs. 

 

   

[Just Jack]

After Week 13...

 

1. New England Patriots (11-2) n/c

2. Denver Broncos (10-2) n/c

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) Up 3

4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6) n/c

5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) n/c

6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) Down 3

7. Buffalo Bills (8-4) n/c

8. Houston Texans (7-5) n/c

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) n/c

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) n/c

11. Miami Dolphins (5-7) n/c

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) n/c

13. New York Jets (3-9) Up 2

14. Cleveland Browns (3-9) Down 1

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) Eliminated

16. Tennessee Titans (1-11) Eliminated

 

Division Leader

Wild Card

Eliminated

[Just Jack]

After Week 14...

 

1. Denver Broncos (11-2) Up 1

2. New England Patriots (11-2) Down 1

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) n/c

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) Up 5

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) n/c

6. Buffalo Bills (9-4) Up 1

7. Houston Texans (8-5) Up 1

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5) Down 2

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7) Down 5

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7) n/c

11. Miami Dolphins (6-7) n/c

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9) n/c

13. New York Jets (3-10) Eliminated

14. Cleveland Browns (3-10) Eliminated

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) Eliminated

16. Tennessee Titans (2-11) Eliminated

 

Division Leader

Wild Card

Eliminated

[TFBillsfan]

57 minutes ago, Just Jack said:

After Week 14...

 

1. Denver Broncos (11-2) Up 1

2. New England Patriots (11-2) Down 1

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) n/c

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) Up 5

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) n/c

6. Buffalo Bills (9-4) Up 1

7. Houston Texans (8-5) Up 1

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5) Down 2

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7) Down 5

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7) n/c

11. Miami Dolphins (6-7) n/c

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9) n/c

13. New York Jets (3-10) Eliminated

14. Cleveland Browns (3-10) Eliminated

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) Eliminated

16. Tennessee Titans (2-11) Eliminated

 

Division Leader

Wild Card

Eliminated

A perfect week 15 weekend would be:

 

Bills win

GB over Denver

Bengals over Ravens

Not sure who to pick MIA/Pitt and LAC/KC

 

A Miami win keeps them playing for a WC making the NE game more meaningful. 
 

A Chargers win pretty much would eliminate KC. 
 

Expecting Houston, Jax to have easy wins

Edited 23 minutes ago by TFBillsfan

[SoCal Deek]

18 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

A perfect week 15 weekend would be:

 

Bills win

GB over Denver

Bengals over Ravens

Not sure who to pick MIA/Pitt and SD/KC

 

A Miami win keeps them playing for a WC making the NE game more meaningful. 
 

A SD win pretty much would eliminate KC. 
 

Expecting Houston, Jax to have easy wins

San Diego? Nah…..I’m telling you, the Padres have no chance. Their pitching stinks! 😉

[zow2]

All I know is that winning on the road in the playoffs is hard,  and for Buffalo to win 3 road games?  I just don't see it.  But that's why we play the games.

[Just Jack]

30 minutes ago, zow2 said:

All I know is that winning on the road in the playoffs is hard,  and for Buffalo to win 3 road games?  I just don't see it.  But that's why we play the games.

 

Steelers did it in the 2005 season, playing all three playoff games on the road, then winning the SB. So, it can be done, but no expected to be done. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

34 minutes ago, zow2 said:

All I know is that winning on the road in the playoffs is hard,  and for Buffalo to win 3 road games?  I just don't see it.  But that's why we play the games.

 

Get the 5 seed. You can still technically host two playoff games if the chips fall right. Houston is one of the hottest teams right now, could see them winning one or two games as the 6 or 7 seed. Provided the Jags hold them off for the division. 

 

A lot can happening. I'm holding out hope for at least one home playoff game. But got to take care of business for the 5 seed.