NeverOutNick's First round QB rankings

[DCOrange]

32 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

What Nix did going from Auburn to Oregon and putting in the work to get better is what JJ needed to do. I believe it was foolish for him to come out this draft. He needed at least another year

Seems like people expect JJ to go early in the first round at this point. Feels unlikely he would have improved his stock from there by staying longer, especially with his coach making the jump to the NFL. On the flipside, next year's QB class looks weak at the moment so there's a chance he could have been QB1 next year.

 

I know there's been at least one report he's as high as QB2 on some team's big boards this year though.

Edited February 15, 2024 by DCOrange

[NeverOutNick]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Seems like people expect JJ to go early in the first round at this point. Feels unlikely he would have improved his stock from there by staying longer, especially with his coach making the jump to the NFL. On the flipside, next year's QB class looks weak at the moment so there's a chance he could have been QB1 next year.

 

I know there's been at least one report he's as high as QB2 on some team's big boards this year though.

All it takes is one team to fall in love with his “potential”. I just think his issues with inconsistency and inaccuracy are not worthy of the first round risk. I hope NE loves him at 3 though lol

Edited February 15, 2024 by NeverOutNick

[NeverOutNick]

On 2/15/2024 at 10:45 AM, DCOrange said:

Seems like people expect JJ to go early in the first round at this point. Feels unlikely he would have improved his stock from there by staying longer, especially with his coach making the jump to the NFL. On the flipside, next year's QB class looks weak at the moment so there's a chance he could have been QB1 next year.

 

I know there's been at least one report he's as high as QB2 on some team's big boards this year though.

I’ve been thinking about JJ some more. I still haven’t changed my view on him as an actual NFL starting QB. He shouldn’t be a day 1 starter in this league. He lacks accuracy, especially on deep balls and is very inconsistent BUT if he were to go to a team like NYG or Minnesota where he has a great offensive mind running the show and hopefully can sit and learn behind Cousins or another seasoned vet for a year before being thrown I think he’s got the mental make up to succeed. He seems like a great kid, interviews really well and strong leader. I’m hoping he succeeds but the things he needs to fix (accuracy and inconsistency) are harder to envision than someone like Williams who just needs a good coach to teach him to stay in the pocket and take what the defense gives you. 
 

I will say, if I could place a bet in Vegas, like it or not, I’d bet over 5.5 QBs go in the first round

[CNYfan]

On 3/9/2024 at 11:56 AM, NeverOutNick said:

will say, if I could place a bet in Vegas, like it or not, I’d bet over 5.5 QBs go in the first round

 

Wow.  I find that surprising.  Penix and Nix in the first?   I would take the under, too much OL, CB and WR talent.  

[Buffalo716]

The biggest false detractor about Williams is that he doesn't take layups.. or cannot 

 

Look at him at Oklahoma when he first took over the job... 

 

He is getting the ball out insanely fast.. he picks his spots and gets rid of it... Short game was very good

 

Going to USC where is defense was giving up 40 points a game literally made it impossible for him to play small ball... You can't play small ball when you have to score 45 a game

 

Not enough time

 

The game plan for Lincoln Riley and USC was for wide receivers to get down field.. and allow Caleb Williams to use his athleticism and pocket presence to buy time and make big plays... Because you can't go on 12 Play drives needing to score 45 points a night

 

He has shown at Oklahoma that he can have a quick trigger... The offense at USC was not predicated on that

 

 

[NeverOutNick]

On 2/14/2024 at 12:31 PM, NeverOutNick said:

I absolutely love this QB and WR class! It's such a unique and deep year at both positions for potential franchise changers. Not to toot my own horn but I've been more right than wrong on QBs and WRs since doing my scouting. The only 2 QBs I loved in 2018 were Baker and Allen (sorry Lamar I was happily wrong). Baker had some of the best ball placement I've ever seen from a college QB. He led his WRs the same way Stroud did and unlike Stroud in College he did well going through his progressions so even though he was cocky his floor was always high. Allen was a unicorn with his Big Ben frame and howitzer for an arm, he had 0 reliable weapons at Wyoming but you could see the potential oozing and thank God it worked out better than we could have imagined. I loved Russell Wilson coming out and thought wow the Bills brought him in for a visit so we may finally have our guy, but then we didn't take him after 3 rounds and although he is what he is now, he's had a great career. Now on to this year...

 

There are 2 glaring things I want to point out about this year's QB class. First off, there are 5 first round QB prospects that all have potential to be franchise QBs in this league. Secondly, there is NO ONE in this class that is a sure-fire homerun/can't miss prospect like Joe Burrow was a couple years ago. Not one of these guys has Burrow's accuracy and precision with leading WRs or even his ability process information so quickly to make the right decision. Maybe one day they will get there and it's still the best class I've seen in a while, but expectation need to be tempered because I couldn't see one of these guys going to the 2020 Bengals and making them an instant playoff team like Burrow did. Most of the QBs will need the right situation to fully develop into the franchise QB they can be. I did not go into detail with QBs like JJ McCarthy, who I don't believe is a first round QB (I've watched Michigan too much the past couple years and he's way too inconsistent for me to risk taking early) or any of the other lower ranked guys because I don't see enough promise in any of them to be franchise guys in the NFL. Without further ado here's the rankings and explanations of my 5 first round graded QBs:

 

1. Drake Maye – When I watch Maye this year it reminds me of Herberts final year at Oregon. Both of them had incredible penultimate campaigns that if they could’ve/would’ve come out you’d have a hard time not making them the #1 overall pick BUT their final college years opened a lot of questions about decision making. Maye threw a lot of balls this year that killed drives and made me think what the heck are you doing dude but when he was dialed in there was no one better in this class. Maye has everything you need and want in an NFL franchise QB. He’s huge with no limitations on his arm manipulating defenses with arm angles and strength even with bad footing. He can use his legs in key moments and is willing to carry his team on his back. His physical tools are unmatched and his ability to go through progressions are good for a college QB but his timeliness and anticipation on throws are make him stand out to me. He’s got traits of the elite guys playing today to where he can make something out of nothing and if he gets someone like Brian Daboll to refine his inconsistencies, Maye's ceiling is a top 5 QB in the NFL. He has that ability to process new information and get better and you see it in the middle of a game when he recognizes a defensive alignment he's seen earlier and makes the right adjustment. He seems like a smart dude, and it would suck if he went to a team with no offensive direction to be in the same undeveloping purgatory that Herbert had been in the last few years. One thing that can't be measured from our couches is scouting is a player's work ethic. You can see his heart and confidence on the field and after the game but work ethic is a huge part of a QBs success and an element we won't be able to know because we're not paid scouts talking to his coaches and teammates. I hope all of these guys have a great work ethic because it could be a special QB class. For a guy sitting on his couch evaluating college QBs the last 25 years, I believe Maye is worth the risk as the #1 QB in this class. I think the elements that he is lacking are very coachable unlike some of the other prospects below. 

 

2. Caleb Williams – He throws with very polished touch, which is hard to teach, and you know the WRs appreciate it. Great athlete who runs so smooth. He is fun to watch, and whichever team gets him will have huge ticket sale increases because he’s an instant star. He’s got Allen and Mahomes type ability to avoid the sack and throws well on the run keeping his eyes downfield. But that leads me to my biggest negative with Caleb. Matt Miller said it best, “He leans into the spectacular, he won’t take the layups”. He plays hero-ball all the time even when there is a clean pocket, and he doesn’t need to do that. In college this worked a lot but, in the NFL, if he doesn’t learn to take what he’s given early and often he will have a short career. It may be unfair, but I wonder if he relies on his unmatched athleticism to make up for his deficiencies at reading coverages both pre snap and early on during the play. He will instantly make any team better the second they draft him, but my unpopular take is he may not live up to the enormous hype that has been put on him. If Caleb wants to transform into a franchise QB that could potentially be a top 5 QB in this league, he needs to go to the right team with the right offensive minds in place to help him play with more anticipation. He really needs to learn the intricacies of being an NFL QB because right now it's a lot of video game highlights and not a lot of smart decision-making that gets a team deep in the playoffs. He has the Mahomes and Allen ceiling, and thankfully for them they had Reid and Daboll to get them to where they are today. If he doesn't land in the right situation Caleb has the low floor of a Jonny Manziel (I don’t believe he’ll ever be this bad) who just doesn’t get it at the NFL level.

 

3. Bo Nix – I love Bo Nix. He’s my dude and to be totally honest if I were a GM and was a QB away from being a contender, I'd take Nix over Caleb. I almost ranked Nix over Caleb because I know and love what I'm getting with Nix, but Caleb has that unicorn potential so I'm hoping I have the right people in place to get the most out of him. Bo is a seasoned veteran coming in as a rookie. He’s so consistent and smart with the football. Unlike Penix, if Bo’s first couple progressions aren’t there, and the pocket breaks down he has the mobility to make something happen and has really good accuracy on the run. Bo is a very good athlete and man can he run. He’s not silky smooth running like Caleb or have the video game moves of Jayden but I still bet he runs under a 4.6 at the combine. He doesn't have the same arm strength as Maye, Penix or Williams but he can make every NFL throw that is needed. His progressions and rollouts remind me of Burrow. He’s not Joe Burrow but he’s the closest thing in this draft to him. Burrow was so refined and no moment was too big for him and his accuracy was unmatched. With Nix it's not as sexy to watch but he has that same "it" factor and his play in big moments is Joe Burrow lite, for lack of a better description. Nix is a winner, he's gritty and whatever fan base gets him, they will instantly love him. I believe my top 3 QBs are the guys worth taking in the top 5. The next 2 are first round talents but have limitations that these 3 don't.

 

4. Michael Penix Jr – This dude is Tua with a better arm. Guy has a great arm and throws the prettiest ball in this draft. Penix has a great attitude, personality and never give up persona that teammates and fans are going to gravitate to. Love a lot about Penix and the only reasons he’s not ranked higher is because he is the least mobile of the top guys and NEEDS a clean pocket to succeed. He's the closest thing in this draft to Mayfield and Stroud's ability to lead receivers open with his throws, but he's not that good. I love his composure in the pocket. He will stay in the pocket until the last second to make the right throw and he makes it more often than not. He trusts his WRs to make plays. If he has an all-pro offensive line, the dude is going to thrive and could be the best QB in this class. If his first couple reads are open, he’s unbelievable but has trouble when he has to progress further than that and isn’t great going off script or extending plays, probably because of his limited mobility. I can see him being a very successful top QB in this league if he goes to the right team like Minnesota with the offensive coach, great weapons and a really good O line. I’m not as concerned about his age or injury history because of what kind of QB he is, and his style of play should last for 10+ years. He doesn’t have a low floor or a high ceiling but we’ve seen less mobile guys have incredible careers a la Peyton Manning.

 

5. Jayden Daniels – Great college QB and will probably go down as one of the 10 best college QBs of all time. Uses his legs better than any QB in this class. If he goes to a team that knows how to use his strengths, he is going to be a nightmare to scheme against. He is not in the same class of an athlete as Lamar was coming out (no one is) but I’d say he’s a better athlete than Kyler Murray and a better thrower than Lamar was coming out. He can throw the deep ball well, but he’s not great at going through his progressions. He doesn’t have good accuracy with short and intermediate throws. I believe he would take the most time to develop out of the 5 QBs listed but you can still win with him now. If you're drafting Daniels, you'd have to know that when he’s your franchise QB you’re building around what he can do best which is throw the deep ball and make plays with his legs because everything else is not NFL level at this point. I would not draft Jayden in the top 10 but if my head coach wanted him and convinced me we had great offensive minds that could develop Jayden than I could see a path similar to Lamar Jackson, in which he will be successful. 

 

I'll finish my deep dive into the WR class later this month...

Told everyone Drake Maye would be the best QB in this class. I hate the bears and commanders for letting him slide to the patriots. I’m also looking good on my Bo Nix hype

[Sweats]

31 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Told everyone Drake Maye would be the best QB in this class. I hate the bears and commanders for letting him slide to the patriots. I’m also looking good on my Bo Nix hype

 

 

 

Yep, you totally cornered the market on that prediction.....................................................................................................................rolls eyes

[NeverOutNick]

22 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

Yep, you totally cornered the market on that prediction.....................................................................................................................rolls eyes

I mean it was pretty widespread that Williams was the #1 and Daniels was #2 according to the talking heads and the way the draft ended up but I appreciate the sarcasm. I’m always a fan of a good humbling 

[Sweats]

Just now, NeverOutNick said:

I mean it was pretty widespread that Williams was the #1 and Daniels was #2 according to the talking heads and the way the draft ended up but I appreciate the sarcasm. I’m always a fan of a good humbling 

 

 

 

I follow college ball wayyyyyyyyy more than the NFL and it was plain to see that Maye had the "it" factor at UNC.

 

I didn't want him anywhere near the AFCEast.

[NeverOutNick]

3 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I follow college ball wayyyyyyyyy more than the NFL and it was plain to see that Maye had the "it" factor at UNC.

 

I didn't want him anywhere near the AFCEast.

100% thought the same way. Shows how easy it is to turn a franchise around. Great QB and Great HC and the pats went from worst to first. If only we could get the coach part right…

[julian]