Ed Oliver big extension

[PBF81]

40 minutes ago, Logic said:

They seem to be betting that between his having Jones and Ford -- two very solid 1Ts -- next to him to allow him to play 3T full time, his hopefully remaining healthy (I know, I know), his level of play still ascending (he's just 25), and perhaps a change in his usage with McDermott as defensive play caller, that his best days are ahead of him.

If they're right, this deal will very quickly look like a big bargain. If they're wrong, they've probably overpaid. 

 

Two things, anytime a player needs someone "next to him" to be good it should raise questions.  Otherwise, Ford's on another Beane-special 1-year contract.  What if he shines here?  Then what, contract wise?  We give him a monster contract too?  

 

Just playing devil's advocate there.  I get the whole "taking pressure off a player(s)" thing, but the best players ante-up regardless.  Kyle Williams didn't always have great players next to him as one example.  

 

If Oliver improves as many seem to think that he will, then yes, the contract will be a bargain.  But if not, then we'll be hamstrung by that $45M guaranteed whether it's Beane or another GM, it won't matter.  Showing him the money doesn't make him better and it doesn't make him bigger or faster.  As Washington stated, he'll have to dig that up from somewhere else.  It's been 4 seasons and it hasn't happened though.  

 

It's another high-risk high-reward type of thing that we seem to lean towards.  But $45M guaranteed is a lot for that kind of risk.  If the guaranteed had been less such that we could have cut him after '24 (two more seasons) then it would have been better.  It wasn't a lot for top DTs, but he's not one, but it was a lot for where he ranks.  It's entirely predicated upon him improving.  Without that improvement it's not going to look nearly as good.  

 

At the end of the day, when building a team, you have to have a solid mix of draftees that are performing to above-average standards, and not talking about ones on their second contracts, and we don't seem to have that.  With maybe one exception, and this draft class in the balance, we don't have that.  A team is always going to be cap-stretched if all of its talent comes at top rates for what it gets.  It's nearly unanimous that he wasn't worth a 1st-round pick.  If that's the case, then finding a DT in round 2 that plays to his level really shouldn't be that difficult.  Right?  The problem is Beane's track record on that.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Two things, anytime a player needs someone "next to him" to be good it should raise questions.  Otherwise, Ford's on another Beane-special 1-year contract.  What if he shines here?  Then what, contract wise?  We give him a monster contract too?  

 

Just playing devil's advocate there.  I get the whole "taking pressure off a player(s)" thing, but the best players ante-up regardless.  Kyle Williams didn't always have great players next to him as one example.  

 

If Oliver improves as many seem to think that he will, then yes, the contract will be a bargain.  But if not, then we'll be hamstrung by that $45M guaranteed whether it's Beane or another GM, it won't matter.  Showing him the money doesn't make him better and it doesn't make him bigger or faster.  As Washington stated, he'll have to dig that up from somewhere else.  It's been 4 seasons and it hasn't happened though.  

 

It's another high-risk high-reward type of thing that we seem to lean towards.  But $45M guaranteed is a lot for that kind of risk.  If the guaranteed had been less such that we could have cut him after '24 (two more seasons) then it would have been better.  It wasn't a lot for top DTs, but he's not one, but it was a lot for where he ranks.  It's entirely predicated upon him improving.  Without that improvement it's not going to look nearly as good.  

 

At the end of the day, when building a team, you have to have a solid mix of draftees that are performing to above-average standards, and not talking about ones on their second contracts, and we don't seem to have that.  With maybe one exception, and this draft class in the balance, we don't have that.  A team is always going to be cap-stretched if all of its talent comes at top rates for what it gets.  It's nearly unanimous that he wasn't worth a 1st-round pick.  If that's the case, then finding a DT in round 2 that plays to his level really shouldn't be that difficult.  Right?  The problem is Beane's track record on that.  

 

What the Oliver contract does is, sets a market for his skill set. In a year from now when 10+ other DT are signed, that top 15 contract will turn into a top 22-25 contact and makes more sense. I just want the dude to have 1 full healthy season to bring everything he has to the field. He could step it up this year, making that contract look even better. 

[Maine-iac]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Well maybe your guesstimation is right that he played a bit more for a few game stretch at one time in his 4 year career..........but he's been pretty consistently at just a tick of 56% for his career.  (I think just a tick of means just a bit less than, correct? )

 

At $30,000 per snap that puts this deal second only to Aaron Donald on a pay for play basis.

 

And that's not including actual production..........which is not good.

 

He will have to be a much better player than he has been for this contract to not look kinda' ridiculous.

 

If I was the agent for Christian Wilkins(David Mulugheta).........the bar has been reset for me at $30K+ per snap.   And CW played 955 of them last year.   

Isn't Hargreaves getting over 21 mil per season and over 80 mil for the life of the deal?  Oliver's deal (according to ESPN) works out to 15.75 mil per season.  It seems like they are getting paid accordingly.

[buffaloboyinATL]

2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

What the Oliver contract does is, sets a market for his skill set. In a year from now when 10+ other DT are signed, that top 15 contract will turn into a top 22-25 contact and makes more sense. I just want the dude to have 1 full healthy season to bring everything he has to the field. He could step it up this year, making that contract look even better. 

This is very true.  He is currently an above average player, with a contract outside the top 10, and as you pointed out, it will likely be outside the top 20 very soon.  The contract is fair market value as it sits today, and has the potential to be a relative bargain. Beane knows what he ia doing. 

[McBean]

5 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

When someone posts long enough, their true motives emerge...😁

True motives because if you don’t agree with every signing, draft pick, contract, or decision made by this front office and coaching staff, you aren’t a fan and have other intentions?

 

I’ve complemented them a lot. I’ve criticized a lot. Sorry, I think this signing is trash along with the player who’s mediocre at best.  Sorry, I think we have a mediocre coach riding the coattails of a super star QB. Other national reporters think the same. ( see Ross Tucker.)

Edited June 4, 2023 by McBean

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

What the Oliver contract does is, sets a market for his skill set. In a year from now when 10+ other DT are signed, that top 15 contract will turn into a top 22-25 contact and makes more sense. I just want the dude to have 1 full healthy season to bring everything he has to the field. He could step it up this year, making that contract look even better. 

This is very true. I just don't see Oliver anywhere close to being elite or a top 10 DT. The guy is undersized and that will always prevent him from having a high ceiling. 

 

Now we have a four year sample to see what Oliver is. Imho, he's not nearly consistent enough to be reliable. He shows a flash here and there and that's just not good enough. 

 

Does Oliver suck? No he doesn't. Imho, he's average or slightly better. I really don't think he will suddenly start producing at a higher level than this. Sure it's possible. 

 

In short, this signing seems a little too risky. The Bills certainly have to address the DT position in the upcoming season or two. They are pretty thin upfront. Perhaps that has a lot to with the decision. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Issue with Oliver is that he isn't a finisher. Great phantom pass rush win rate guy, can't close to save his life 

 

His hand size and arm length are both in the 11th percentile for his position. It is a legitimate concern. When you're trying to take down guys like Mahomes and Jackson and Hurts it isn't enough to just get into the pocket, you have to get your hands on them and bring them down or at least slow them enough until help arrives. If Oliver is always just a disruptor but never a finisher it will be hard to justify this contract IMO.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

11th highest annual among DT.

 

lol

Some news outlets have it ranked at 15th or 16th highest with the 8th most guaranteed money. With the way that the cap and salaries are escalating, this contract will look like a bargain in a couple of years.  Frazier frequently had the guy playing two gap which was a complete misuse of his skill set (probably one of several reasons that Frazier is gone).  I'll be interested to see if McD actually uses his speed and quickness to disrupt the offense.

[Dan]

The problem with most posters here is they expect hall of fame caliber players at every position and then hope for a home town discount when its time to resign them.  And when they don’t get both, they think you can draft that player and have them produce as rookies.  Of course, either scenario rarely happens.  
 

Oliver is a good player and they’re keeping him at a reasonable price in the current NFL market.  I’m glad he’s staying on the team. It’s one less hole in the roster going forward.   

[GETTOTHE50]

i feel like ed oliver needs a meeting with the bobs

 

 

[HappyDays]

24 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Isn't Hargreaves getting over 21 mil per season and over 80 mil for the life of the deal?  Oliver's deal (according to ESPN) works out to 15.75 mil per season.  It seems like they are getting paid accordingly.

 

I don't want to get too stuck in the weeds on his contract value relative to other players at his position. The bigger concern in my mind is that this represents another major investment in a DL player that is not dominant. Von Miller is the only investment they've made so far there where you can say his level of play justified the investment amount, unpredictable ACL tear notwithstanding. Rousseau is the only other one I still have hope will meet the standard of his investment. A top 10 pick on Oliver, 2nd round picks on Epenesa and Basham, to go along with the myriad of overpriced signings Beane has made in free agency. On the whole the handling of the entire DL has been poor and it's left us with much less capital to use on supporting Allen. Signing Oliver to a big extension perpetuates this issue.

 

Beane clearly understands that the DL is extremely important but he has to learn that just throwing resources at the problem isn't going to fix it. A pattern of bad investments there has finally caught up to us on other areas of the team.

[Maine-iac]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't want to get too stuck in the weeds on his contract value relative to other players at his position. The bigger concern in my mind is that this represents another major investment in a DL player that is not dominant. Von Miller is the only investment they've made so far there where you can say his level of play justified the investment amount, unpredictable ACL tear notwithstanding. Rousseau is the only other one I still have hope will meet the standard of his investment. A top 10 pick on Oliver, 2nd round picks on Epenesa and Basham, to go along with the myriad of overpriced signings Beane has made in free agency. On the whole the handling of the entire DL has been poor and it's left us with much less capital to use on supporting Allen. Signing Oliver to a big extension perpetuates this issue.

 

Beane clearly understands that the DL is extremely important but he has to learn that just throwing resources at the problem isn't going to fix it. A pattern of bad investments there has finally caught up to us on other areas of the team.

I don't wholly agree but I can't really argue against what you are saying.  I feel like Beane's investments were good and had we not had the rash of injuries and ended the season the way we did last year everyone would feel fine with everything.  The reality is we did have the injuries and there's no way to tell so I have no tangible way to argue that.  My hope is that a healthy Miller rushing the passer and a healthy secondary combined with McDermott calling the defense will have the defense firing on all cylinders and we'll be back knocking on the SB door and hopefully kicking it down.

 

ps I don't think we should sleep on Epenesa yet.  He had a number of good flashes the more he played after Miller went down.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Maine-iac

[Billz4ever]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Supposedly, the $45MM includes the already committed $10MM that was a part of his rookie deal.  

 

Additionally, we forget that McDermott is more likely to call stunts and blitzes as compared to Frazier.  If the is is true, the calling will suit Oliver’s athleticism better.

 

Somehow I think we will see a more productive Oliver this season. 

 

I hadn't yet seen the particulars of the contract, but if that's the case, that makes it much easier to swallow if the 5th year option money is included as part of this deal.  I'm really hoping to see a great year from him.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Billz4ever

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

His hand size and arm length are both in the 11th percentile for his position. It is a legitimate concern. When you're trying to take down guys like Mahomes and Jackson and Hurts it isn't enough to just get into the pocket, you have to get your hands on them and bring them down or at least slow them enough until help arrives. If Oliver is always just a disruptor but never a finisher it will be hard to justify this contract IMO.

 

While I don't dismiss the arm length thing and I do think it has impacted him as a finisher - it is a legit point - it is that much more than overall size, weight, being light in the pants and all the other nonsense that was spoken about him that has been his biggest limitation in the pros to this point. However, I repeat again that no player has had more sacks negated by penalty in the last two years. If his past two years were 11.5 sacks and not 6.5 I think that would be a much fairer reflection of the extent to which the arm length limits him. It is a thing. It is a factor. But it doesn't quite limit him as much as the raw numbers suggest it might. And one would hope, as Eric Washington said, that he develops that mental nouse even more.

[dollars 2 donuts]

22 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Literally almost ***** myself when I saw the Schefter update.  Thought it was for Hopkins

 

I wish I could say “I almost”.

 

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While I don't dismiss the arm length thing and I do think it has impacted him as a finisher - it is a legit point - it is that much more than overall size, weight, being light in the pants and all the other nonsense that was spoken about him that has been his biggest limitation in the pros to this point. However, I repeat again that no player has had more sacks negated by penalty in the last two years. If his past two years were 11.5 sacks and not 6.5 I think that would be a much fairer reflection of the extent to which the arm length limits him. It is a thing. It is a factor. But it doesn't quite limit him as much as the raw numbers suggest it might. And one would hope, as Eric Washington said, that he develops that mental nouse even more.

Oliver has had 5 sacks eliminated by penalties in the last 2 seasons?!  I did not know that. Just bad luck, or indicative of something? 

[PrimeTime101]

32 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

This is very true. I just don't see Oliver anywhere close to being elite or a top 10 DT. The guy is undersized and that will always prevent him from having a high ceiling. 

 

Now we have a four year sample to see what Oliver is. Imho, he's not nearly consistent enough to be reliable. He shows a flash here and there and that's just not good enough. 

 

Does Oliver suck? No he doesn't. Imho, he's average or slightly better. I really don't think he will suddenly start producing at a higher level than this. Sure it's possible. 

 

In short, this signing seems a little too risky. The Bills certainly have to address the DT position in the upcoming season or two. They are pretty thin upfront. Perhaps that has a lot to with the decision. 

this is arguable with some on the boards and i am not here to argue a fair opinion for the first bolded.

 

To the rest? We have not seen the best out of Oliver because of injuries... @Simon was kind enough to educate me on this matter and I looked it up. What we do not know is 1. how much those injuries effected his game post injury while he was not 100%. 2. Players are different when you surround them with talent. He ad some good games with Von by his side and even last years preseason practices... They said they could not have von and oliver on the field at the same time cause our offense would get blown up all the time. Now that was not saying much but that did show that against average with single player on him and a 1 tech DT on his other side.. his game was vastly elevated. 

 

Only time will tell. 

[PBF81]

27 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

What the Oliver contract does is, sets a market for his skill set. In a year from now when 10+ other DT are signed, that top 15 contract will turn into a top 22-25 contact and makes more sense. I just want the dude to have 1 full healthy season to bring everything he has to the field. He could step it up this year, making that contract look even better. 

 

I realize that.  But keep in mind, what it also does is add more money to the existing state-of-play.  In other words, it doesn't improve the team at face value.  Nothing changes from a talent perspective.  That improvement will depend upon several things, as you imply, particularly since more money doesn't make him bigger or faster.  As you said, it will to some extent be predicated upon his injury status.  Perhaps his injury status is related to his lack of size to some extent, and having to go up against bigger/stronger/faster opponents.  Who knows, we don't, I don't think that anyone does.  But his play this season was only marginally better than the prior two seasons where he wasn't injured.  The extra money, as I commented on earlier, also doesn't make him bigger or faster.  Right?  

 

Now let's suppose he does not improve, or continues to get injured.  Should that occur, now we'll have that $45M guaranteed, or most of it, to deal with.  

 

It's not that the signing was bad in and of itself.  For some teams it may have been brilliant.  But for us, I and many other fans and writers/journalists/analysts out there would like to start seeing some of our rookies playing well, like they do on many other teams, in their first three or four years of their contracts, to the extent that they make an impact.  Like White for example.  

 

All of the players that currently make this team as good as it is, are getting top market dollar for their status generally speaking.  Allen needs no mention, but otherwise, Diggs (free-agent), Knox (2nd Contract), Dawkins (2nd Contract), Von Miller (free agent), White (2nd Contract), Milano (2nd Contract), Morse (free-agent), Hyde (free-agent), Poyer (free-agent).  We can add Oliver now.  (2nd Contract)  

 

Where are the rookies in their first four years that are providing above-average play much more impact-play for the team?  We could argue Groot, but he wasn't good with Miller off the field.  The jury's still out on him.  We cannot continue to keep spending like that to keep the same level of play.  Right?  

 

And what about the playoffs where we aren't good.  In the biggest of games several haven't stepped up.  Diggs for one.  Oliver either.  I've posted his playoff stats.  Other than vs. the poor Skylar Thompson led Fins, which is hardly a standard, he's got a mere 1 sack in 7 playoff games, only 2 QB Hits, and 3 TFLs I believe.  That's not commensurate with that contract.  

 

Anyway, to bring this full-circle with your comment, what if Oliver continues to suffer injuries because he's outsized and outmuscled?  What if his play doesn't improve like so many are assuming?  Will it help propel us in the playoffs?  Will it matter what he's getting paid at that point?  How would that $45M look then?   Can we reasonably assume that all of those things align positively?  

 

I'd love to hear your thoughts on those.  Truly.  

 

Again, it's a high-risk, decent (but not likely high reward) signing.  The odds of Oliver turning into a top-10 DT are not great.  

 

In short, are we looking for bargains, or future bargains, or are we looking to build a team that is capable of winning it all.  I'm not seeing a connection between the latter and Oliver's signing.  

 

Thoughts?  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Oliver has had 5 sacks eliminated by penalties in the last 2 seasons?!  I did not know that. Just bad luck, or indicative of something? 

 

Yep. I think it was 4 in 2021 alone! I confess I haven't gone back and looked at them since I heard the stat but from memory they were mainly for infringements well away from him on the play, rather than Ed getting done for roughing etc. Although I think I might recall one like that.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

I realize that.  But keep in mind, what it also does is add more money to the existing state-of-play.  In other words, it doesn't improve the team at face value.  Nothing changes from a talent perspective.  That improvement will depend upon several things, as you imply, particularly since more money doesn't make him bigger or faster.  As you said, it will to some extent be predicated upon his injury status.  Perhaps his injury status is related to his lack of size to some extent, and having to go up against bigger/stronger/faster opponents.  Who knows, we don't, I don't think that anyone does.  But his play this season was only marginally better than the prior two seasons where he wasn't injured.  The extra money, as I commented on earlier, also doesn't make him bigger or faster.  Right?  

 

Now let's suppose he does not improve, or continues to get injured.  Should that occur, now we'll have that $45M guaranteed, or most of it, to deal with.  

 

It's not that the signing was bad in and of itself.  For some teams it may have been brilliant.  But for us, I and many other fans and writers/journalists/analysts out there would like to start seeing some of our rookies playing well, like they do on many other teams, in their first three or four years of their contracts, to the extent that they make an impact.  Like White for example.  

 

All of the players that currently make this team as good as it is, are getting top market dollar for their status generally speaking.  Allen needs no mention, but otherwise, Diggs (free-agent), Knox (2nd Contract), Dawkins (2nd Contract), Von Miller (free agent), White (2nd Contract), Milano (2nd Contract), Morse (free-agent), Hyde (free-agent), Poyer (free-agent).  We can add Oliver now.  (2nd Contract)  

 

Where are the rookies in their first four years that are providing above-average play much more impact-play for the team?  We could argue Groot, but he wasn't good with Miller off the field.  The jury's still out on him.  We cannot continue to keep spending like that to keep the same level of play.  Right?  

 

And what about the playoffs where we aren't good.  In the biggest of games several haven't stepped up.  Diggs for one.  Oliver either.  I've posted his playoff stats.  Other than vs. the poor Skylar Thompson led Fins, which is hardly a standard, he's got a mere 1 sack in 7 playoff games, only 2 QB Hits, and 3 TFLs I believe.  That's not commensurate with that contract.  

 

Anyway, to bring this full-circle with your comment, what if Oliver continues to suffer injuries because he's outsized and outmuscled?  What if his play doesn't improve like so many are assuming?  Will it help propel us in the playoffs?  Will it matter what he's getting paid at that point?  How would that $45M look then?   Can we reasonably assume that all of those things align positively?  

 

I'd love to hear your thoughts on those.  Truly.  

 

Again, it's a high-risk, decent (but not likely high reward) signing.  The odds of Oliver turning into a top-10 DT are not great.  

 

In short, are we looking for bargains, or future bargains, or are we looking to build a team that is capable of winning it all.  I'm not seeing a connection between the latter and Oliver's signing.  

 

Thoughts?  

I am sticking to my guns on this. over the next year his top 15 pay will look like top 25 pay do to new contracts. Trying to get better valued player when we are not sure what Olivers ceiling is, I disagree to. We need one healthy year to evaluate Oliver (if that even happens.. my biggest concern) to seek his full potential. To soon... to crystal ball like for me to say we could of done better with less money in the future.