Optimizing Dawson Knox

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

 

Dawson is better than Engram and Freirmuth and it isn't even close. The difference? Their OCs and QBs throw those guys the ball. 

 

The Bills with Knox are like the guy with the midlife crisis who bought a clapped out classic Jaguar, spent 2 years restoring it (because Knox was a huge project coming out but with freakish talent and the Bills actuakly did the development bit well) he now has a shiny pristine classic and then only drives it once a year at a classic car show. 

 

GET KNOX THE EFFING BALL!!

You are 100% correct on production metrics when used.   I think an important point is left out of the original post and the subsequent responses. Bills were second in the league in Receiving TDs and fourth in the league in Total TDs, and fourth in points.  There is limited room for improvement in the team statistics.  I am not sure Knox can greatly improve his reception or yardage count without it being reduced elsewhere. But there is some room for incremental improvement for the team. 

My original post titled "Optimizing Dawson Knox" certainly begs for discussion on production.  But after reading the responses, I think my question would be better phrased "Can we use Knox to strike fear into the defense, and if so how do we do it?".    Down the playoff stretch for years we saw it with Gronk and now we see it will Kelce.  Team is in a tight spot, everyone in the stadium knows Gronk or Kelce is the first option, and it does not matter. They are getting open or making the contested catch, and at times its seems there is not a damn thing the defense can do about it.  The answer might be Knox just is not that level of player. Doesn't make him a bad player.  AJ Brown seemed to be that player for the Eagles. Bengals have the Chase/Higgins/ Boyd multi-weapon approach.   Diggs can't quite put the team on his shoulders alone, like Kelce does.  And I am not sure we are going to get him more support in clutch time from the WR room.  My thought is if the additional help is already on the roster, it is Knox.  How do we get him to the point where defences know its going to Knox, and there is not much the defenses can do about it?

 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Chaos said:

You are 100% correct on production metrics when used.   I think an important point is left out of the original post and the subsequent responses. Bills were second in the league in Receiving TDs and fourth in the league in Total TDs, and fourth in points.  There is limited room for improvement in the team statistics.  I am not sure Knox can greatly improve his reception or yardage count without it being reduced elsewhere. But there is some room for incremental improvement for the team. 

My original post titled "Optimizing Dawson Knox" certainly begs for discussion on production.  But after reading the responses, I think my question would be better phrased "Can we use Knox to strike fear into the defense, and if so how do we do it?".    Down the playoff stretch for years we saw it with Gronk and now we see it will Kelce.  Team is in a tight spot, everyone in the stadium knows Gronk or Kelce is the first option, and it does not matter. They are getting open or making the contested catch, and at times its seems there is not a damn thing the defense can do about it.  The answer might be Knox just is not that level of player. Doesn't make him a bad player.  AJ Brown seemed to be that player for the Eagles. Bengals have the Chase/Higgins/ Boyd multi-weapon approach.   Diggs can't quite put the team on his shoulders alone, like Kelce does.  And I am not sure we are going to get him more support in clutch time from the WR room.  My thought is if the additional help is already on the roster, it is Knox.  How do we get him to the point where defences know its going to Knox, and there is not much the defenses can do about it?

 

 

Defenses haven't stopped him much the last two years. The Bills have to use him more. It isn't the redzone where they have already used him plenty and his numbers there are excellent. But they have to find a way to use him before that. Not saying he is Kelce or Gronk... they are the two best ever... but he can be one of the best Tight Ends in football. And he is definitely the second best weapon on this roster.

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Defenses haven't stopped him much the last two years. The Bills have to use him more. It isn't the redzone where they have already used him plenty and his numbers there are excellent. But they have to find a way to use him before that. Not saying he is Kelce or Gronk... they are the two best ever... but he can be one of the best Tight Ends in football. And he is definitely the second best weapon on this roster.

The under utilization of Knox is similar to that of the receiving backs.  Do you think that is on the OC or Josh?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

The under utilization of Knox is similar to that of the receiving backs.  Do you think that is on the OC or Josh?

 

A bit of both. I think it is mostly OC. But Josh has to be willing to use the intermediate stuff to Knox more. He spent too much of last year forcing the deep ball.

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Defenses haven't stopped him much the last two years. The Bills have to use him more. It isn't the redzone where they have already used him plenty and his numbers there are excellent. But they have to find a way to use him before that. Not saying he is Kelce or Gronk... they are the two best ever... but he can be one of the best Tight Ends in football. And he is definitely the second best weapon on this roster.

Do you think defenses fear him more than the average tight end? Do they adjust coverages for him? Between the 20's is he regular opened and overlooked when he would have been the best option?  All real questions, not rhetorical. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Chaos said:

Do you think defenses fear him more than the average tight end? Do they adjust coverages for him? Between the 20's is he regular opened and overlooked when he would have been the best option?  All real questions, not rhetorical. 

 

Q1 - no but that is because they feel confident the Bills won't keep feeding him. 

 

Q2 - they do in the redzone. A lot of teams ended up using a corner on him down there. And it is because that is the range where they think they need to have a plan for him.

 

Q3 - yes. He is open a lot. Some of them Josh throws a higher degree of difficulty throw and makes it. So it is hard to say he just has to concentrate on feeding Knox, but between he and Dorsey they have to get the balance better. 

[Nextmanup]

How about the novel approach of expanding his game by throwing the ball to him a little more often?

 

 

[Chaos]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Q1 - no but that is because they feel confident the Bills won't keep feeding him. 

 

Q2 - they do in the redzone. A lot of teams ended up using a corner on him down there. And it is because that is the range where they think they need to have a plan for him.

 

Q3 - yes. He is open a lot. Some of them Josh throws a higher degree of difficulty throw and makes it. So it is hard to say he just has to concentrate on feeding Knox, but between he and Dorsey they have to get the balance better. 

The red zone stats are compelling that he is otherwise misused.  I think part of the deep passing fetish in 2022 was related to the odd problems created by the ULD injury.  The Bills are the strangest team.  What are really going to improve in terms of offensive production in the passing game for the regular season. We were already very good there.  Again shifting yards and TDs among the players doesn't change the team total. 

By way of analogy for anyone that has ever played strat-o-matic baseball, they have a "clutch" rating for the hitters, that just f's everything up in the later innings. But it reflects real life.  We have good clutchiness on the offense already. Leading the league in 2 minute drills, and the continual 2021 playoff heroics after the defense let the teams back time and again.   I think we need to move from good to great "clutchiness".  I want Knox to be that guy.  I want Allen to have that fraction of second longer to determine if his 65% expectation completion to gabe davis 25 yards upfield is better than a 95% completion expectation to Knox, just beyond the chains ( my probably imaginary view of the great tight ends). Rather than have to make a decision as his pocket is collapsing. 

[Southern_Bills]

26 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

The under utilization of Knox is similar to that of the receiving backs.  Do you think that is on the OC or Josh?

 

I believe both issues are a byproduct of the OL. I'm not excusing the coaching staff, but their lack of ability to dial up quick hit plays, on top of the fact that Knox and the backs have to help the OL protect Josh nets you the situation we have.

 

Just my opinion. 

[SWATeam]

7 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

I believe both issues are a byproduct of the OL. I'm not excusing the coaching staff, but their lack of ability to dial up quick hit plays, on top of the fact that Knox and the backs have to help the OL protect Josh nets you the situation we have.

 

Just my opinion. 

I would think a poor oline would drive the opposite- a quick hitting passing game rather than the constant long developing deep shots.

 

it did our line no favors having to block for 5 seconds 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

You are 100% correct on production metrics when used.   I think an important point is left out of the original post and the subsequent responses. Bills were second in the league in Receiving TDs and fourth in the league in Total TDs, and fourth in points.  There is limited room for improvement in the team statistics.  I am not sure Knox can greatly improve his reception or yardage count without it being reduced elsewhere. But there is some room for incremental improvement for the team. 

 

I'd be happy for Knox's receptions and yardage to be improved at the expense of reduction elsewhere.  Take 1/2-2/3 of the difference between Gabe Davis 93 targets and Knox 65 targets, many of which were forcing Davis the ball on a low percentage throw or even a throw away.  Target Dawson Knox instead.  Give him 14-20 more targets at 10.8 yds/pop, 150-200 more yards.

 

Davis will look better as a receiver with a higher catch % from not seeing the ball unless it's a surer bet.  The Bills will hopefully collect another 5-7 1st downs, because more than half Knox receptions went for 1st downs

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

My original post titled "Optimizing Dawson Knox" certainly begs for discussion on production.  But after reading the responses, I think my question would be better phrased "Can we use Knox to strike fear into the defense, and if so how do we do it?".   

 

The only way to do this is to target him more when the game's not on the line, so the opponent learns they better pay attention to him - and that will open up other guys.

 

35 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

The under utilization of Knox is similar to that of the receiving backs.  Do you think that is on the OC or Josh?

 

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A bit of both. I think it is mostly OC. But Josh has to be willing to use the intermediate stuff to Knox more. He spent too much of last year forcing the deep ball.

 

I read this as "both", and I agree. 

17 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

I believe both issues are a byproduct of the OL. I'm not excusing the coaching staff, but their lack of ability to dial up quick hit plays, on top of the fact that Knox and the backs have to help the OL protect Josh nets you the situation we have.

 

Just my opinion. 

 

There were plenty of passing plays with quick hits available.  They need to be utilized.

 

Now as to how the plays are designed to be read - if true that they're always being read deep to shallow (I'm not sure about that, but sometimes they are), that needs to change.

[Chaos]

19 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

I believe both issues are a byproduct of the OL. I'm not excusing the coaching staff, but their lack of ability to dial up quick hit plays, on top of the fact that Knox and the backs have to help the OL protect Josh nets you the situation we have.

 

Just my opinion. 

There are passing plays where Allen has a clean pocket, and as a fan you have a near 100% certainity he is going to complete a good pass.  I think this is because he has time to get through all his progressions without having to move from the pocket.  I think all the recievers numbers go up if we improve the line. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Great analogy.

 

It is. The other thing about that analogy is that it is pretty true of guys with classic auto's like that. They don't use them much. And that happens to be the case with Knox. Until we start using him I can't put him in higher tiers. The fact of the matter is we use him like a JAG starting TE and he should be viewed as such until that changes. All the advanced metrics of separation rate really don't mean much until it is all put together. 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It is. The other thing about that analogy is that it is pretty true of guys with classic auto's like that. They don't use them much. And that happens to be the case with Knox. Until we start using him I can't put him in higher tiers. The fact of the matter is we use him like a JAG starting TE and he should be viewed as such until that changes. All the advanced metrics of separation rate really don't mean much until it is all put together. 

 

 

Yes, I see what you are saying, but that is on Dorsey and Allen to figure out. JAG usage does not equate to JAG player.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

37 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The red zone stats are compelling that he is otherwise misused.  I think part of the deep passing fetish in 2022 was related to the odd problems created by the ULD injury.  The Bills are the strangest team.  What are really going to improve in terms of offensive production in the passing game for the regular season. We were already very good there.  Again shifting yards and TDs among the players doesn't change the team total. 
 

 

Good point. The Bills and Allen especially were on an unreal pace for total yards early in the season. Then they fail back to mean. It wasn't all due to late season weather either but that does play roll. We know the offense has the ability to put up 440 ypg. That is the average they were at through 6 games and going into the Packers game. They finished the season at 397 yards pe game. Second behind the Chiefs. So not bad at all still. 

 

Some of those yards could come from Allen running 10-15 yards less per game. And if they sustain better offensive efficiency utilizing the backs and Knox more they could maybe average around 415 ypg. So you are plus about 20 yards and then have an extra 10 or 15 yards with Allen running less. So plus 30-35 yards per game to spread out to Knox and the RB's. 

[RunTheBall]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Good point. The Bills and Allen especially were on an unreal pace for total yards early in the season. Then they fail back to mean. It wasn't all due to late season weather either but that does play roll. We know the offense has the ability to put up 440 ypg. That is the average they were at through 6 games and going into the Packers game. They finished the season at 397 yards pe game. Second behind the Chiefs. So not bad at all still. 

 

They fell back to the mean because Dorsey got figured out and he didn’t adjust the offense to the defensive adjustments.

 

I think teams had a good feel for what routes were coming based on the formation and the concepts Buffalo loved to run. They knew if they anticipated and jumped the first 2 reads the pass rush should get there and Josh would be in back-yard football mode. The offense was as good as it was because Josh is an Alien and can make so many off structure plays work.

 

Look at Mahomes and Burrows and how many easy throws to wide open guys they had in every game. It seemed like Josh was throwing into tight windows 90% of the time and that’s on Dorsey. The few times we’d hit Diggs on an easy slant right after the snap I’d yell FINALLY. 

 

Knox is very athletic and can run. Dorsey needs to scheme up plays where he is the primary target more often. For that to happen we need improved O-line play and a good #2 WR so he can get creative. Whether he has the brain to scheme up easy plays for our QB is yet to be determined. I hope so but time will tell.

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by RunTheBall

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

You are 100% correct on production metrics when used.   I think an important point is left out of the original post and the subsequent responses. Bills were second in the league in Receiving TDs and fourth in the league in Total TDs, and fourth in points.  There is limited room for improvement in the team statistics.  I am not sure Knox can greatly improve his reception or yardage count without it being reduced elsewhere. But there is some room for incremental improvement for the team. 

My original post titled "Optimizing Dawson Knox" certainly begs for discussion on production.  But after reading the responses, I think my question would be better phrased "Can we use Knox to strike fear into the defense, and if so how do we do it?".    Down the playoff stretch for years we saw it with Gronk and now we see it will Kelce.  Team is in a tight spot, everyone in the stadium knows Gronk or Kelce is the first option, and it does not matter. They are getting open or making the contested catch, and at times its seems there is not a damn thing the defense can do about it.  The answer might be Knox just is not that level of player. Doesn't make him a bad player.  AJ Brown seemed to be that player for the Eagles. Bengals have the Chase/Higgins/ Boyd multi-weapon approach.   Diggs can't quite put the team on his shoulders alone, like Kelce does.  And I am not sure we are going to get him more support in clutch time from the WR room.  My thought is if the additional help is already on the roster, it is Knox.  How do we get him to the point where defences know its going to Knox, and there is not much the defenses can do about it?

 

Lets start with throwing him the ball on decent routes as the 1st or 2nd read ?

2 hours ago, SWATeam said:

The under utilization of Knox is similar to that of the receiving backs.  Do you think that is on the OC or Josh?

Yes

1 hour ago, Southern_Bills said:

 

I believe both issues are a byproduct of the OL. I'm not excusing the coaching staff, but their lack of ability to dial up quick hit plays, on top of the fact that Knox and the backs have to help the OL protect Josh nets you the situation we have.

 

Just my opinion. 

A TE should be a perfect opportunity for a quick hit.
 

[Mr. WEO]

Potential breakout star 3rd year running…

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

41 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

They fell back to the mean because Dorsey got figured out and he didn’t adjust the offense to the defensive adjustments.

 

Dabboll had the same issues as I recall. Mid-season slumps have been a thing with the Bills offense dating back to 2020. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

16 hours ago, Chaos said:

Dawson Knox is paid like a star player.  He has certainly flashed star talent. And he seems like a wonderful human being. I feel like the Bills don't get the expected production of out his salary level because he needs to help in pass protection too much.  A couple of questions which I am sure the more technical football analysts at TBD can help answer. 

1)If we simply add a solid tackle, and handle protections that way, does Knox automatically become more productive
2)If we added a big blocking TE like Darnell Washington, would that make Knox able to be more productive as the pass catching TE/someitme slot receiver

3)If we added both a solid tackel and a blocking TE like Darnell Washington, could Knox's pass catching protection grow to the Kelce/Gronk level? 

I feel like Knox is a break out star waiting to happen, but if it doesn't this year, it probably never will. 

There is a number 4.  what would it be like if the Bills had a running back that could actually function well in pass protection.

 

All of this is conjecture, Knox is not the primary receiver on many plays.  He was used a lot to clear zones or create congestion for underneath crossing routes.  The Bills don't use their TE as a featured receiver of choice.  Knox is a match up problem for many defenses but it seems that they use that to effect the coverage of other guys.  When plays break down, Knox appears to be at his best.  He has shown a knack for finding a hole in the defense and getting himself in Allen's line of sight.  Some of his biggest plays have come on broken plays.