Optimizing Dawson Knox

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

He was pressing. They don't bring in Beasley and Brown late if there weren't some obvious deficiencies in the wr room. 

 

Maybe, but, I mean, we watched Brady win 7 SB’s with mostly nobodies at WR. KC traded their HOF WR and won another Super Bowl right after.

 

Im more willing to blame it on his injuries.

 

Brady did always have great lines though.

 

Im a big fan of Allen. Just yesterday I said he will go down as the greatest Bill of all time. But it sure seems fans don’t want to admit he kinda sucked for a good portion toward the middle and end of last season.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Einstein

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Josh playing like poorly down the stretch last year is kind of the elephant in the room that no-one has been willing to bring up.

 

Week 8 to 17

 

18 passing TD’s and 13 turnovers 

 

 

 

 This is some what true, but at the same time Josh's injury occurred in week 9. 

 

 In reality Josh had a bad 3 game stretch in games 8-10. Take out those 3 games and Josh had 32 tds only 8 ints in the other 13 games.

 

 Also after those 3 games, what would really be considered down the stretch, he had 15 tds and only 4 ints to finish the season.

 

 

 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Also after those 3 games, what would really be considered down the stretch, he had 15 tds and only 4 ints to finish the season.

 

Well yeah if you take away any players bad stretches they’re going to look good lol. 

 

But even taking away that stretch, 15 TD’s, 4 INT’s and 5 fumbles isn’t exactly great football or what we expect from Josh.

 

I think we are all just kinda hoping it’s the injury, but that bad stretch started the game before the injury.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

23 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Josh playing like poorly down the stretch last year is kind of the elephant in the room that no-one has been willing to bring up.

 

Week 8 to 17

 

18 passing TD’s and 13 turnovers 

 

 

 

 Also I just noticed you used turnovers(ints & fumbles), but only passing tds? Why? if you're going to count total turnovers wouldn't you also count total tds? Add 5 more tds for rushing to the tally. Still not great, but definitely better. Seems you're omitting info to suit your narrative. 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Well yeah if you take away any players bad stretches they’re going to look good lol. 

 

But even taking away that stretch, 15 TD’s, 4 INT’s and 5 fumbles isn’t exactly great football or what we expect from Josh.

 

I think we are all just kinda hoping it’s the injury, but that bad stretch started the game before the injury.

 

 Again counting total turnovers, but not total tds?

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Dawson Knox is paid like a star player.  He has certainly flashed star talent. And he seems like a wonderful human being. I feel like the Bills don't get the expected production of out his salary level because he needs to help in pass protection too much.  A couple of questions which I am sure the more technical football analysts at TBD can help answer. 

1)If we simply add a solid tackle, and handle protections that way, does Knox automatically become more productive
2)If we added a big blocking TE like Darnell Washington, would that make Knox able to be more productive as the pass catching TE/someitme slot receiver

3)If we added both a solid tackel and a blocking TE like Darnell Washington, could Knox's pass catching protection grow to the Kelce/Gronk level? 

I feel like Knox is a break out star waiting to happen, but if it doesn't this year, it probably never will. 

Call Dorsey and tell him to use him would be a good start.  

[Einstein]

38 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Also I just noticed you used turnovers(ints & fumbles), but only passing tds? Why? if you're going to count total turnovers wouldn't you also count total tds? Add 5 more tds for rushing to the tally. Still not great, but definitely better. Seems you're omitting info to suit your narrative. 

 

 

 

 

 Again counting total turnovers, but not total tds?

 

 

 

 

I also didn’t include comp % down the stretch (which was bad), y/a, etc. If you want to include his 3 rushing TD’s go for it. But it doesn’t change anything. Listing every stat is pointless when we all know he didn’t play well down the stretch. Unless you think he did?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I lost my older brother a couple years ago at the young age of 31 so I have a real soft spot for Knox. The fact he was able to even continue playing is crazy w/ barely any time to grieve, but I’m sure it weighed heavily on his thoughts & performance. These players are people too. I have a feeling he will have a huge season next year. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Fimbles don’t just happen running. But you’re welcome to use them if you want. It doesn’t change the fact that he didn’t play well down the stretch.

 

 I just want complete information, nothing more or less. It would be like me saying he finished the last 7 games with 18 tds & 4 ints. While true, me not including the 5 fumbles doesn't tell the whole story. Correct? You just wanted it to look worse to fit your narrative. 

 

  Obviously he could've been better, but with his injury he could've been far worse. Most QBs wouldn't even had played through that injury. All in all he still did well enough to finish 3rd in the MVP race. But, don't let me stop you, I wouldn't want to get in way of ypu pushing your agenda. Please, by all means, carry on.

 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

It will be on Dorsey, the O-line, and Allen to make Knox a bigger part of the offense. 

[Einstein]

10 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 I just want complete information, nothing more or less. It would be like me saying he finished the last 7 games with 18 tds & 4 ints. While true, me not including the 5 fumbles doesn't tell the whole story. Correct? You just wanted it to look worse to fit your narrative. 

 

  Obviously he could've been better, but with his injury he could've been far worse. Most QBs wouldn't even had played through that injury. All in all he still did well enough to finish 3rd in the MVP race. But, don't let me stop you, I wouldn't want to get in way of ypu pushing your agenda. Please, by all means, carry on.

 

 

 

 

 

I also didn’t include comp % down the stretch (which was bad), y/a, etc. You want a full breakdown of every stat. How about the splits? Want those too? If you want to include his 3 rushing TD’s, go for it. But it doesn’t change anything. Listing every stat is pointless when we all know he didn’t play well down the stretch. Unless you think he did?

[gobills404]

2 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

More Dawesome, less Dropsome.  That's how to optimize Knox.

He literally had the best catch % on the team this past year and has a drop rate of 6% the last 2 years.

[Gugny]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Dawson Knox is paid like a star player.  He has certainly flashed star talent. And he seems like a wonderful human being. I feel like the Bills don't get the expected production of out his salary level because he needs to help in pass protection too much.  A couple of questions which I am sure the more technical football analysts at TBD can help answer. 

1)If we simply add a solid tackle, and handle protections that way, does Knox automatically become more productive
2)If we added a big blocking TE like Darnell Washington, would that make Knox able to be more productive as the pass catching TE/someitme slot receiver

3)If we added both a solid tackel and a blocking TE like Darnell Washington, could Knox's pass catching protection grow to the Kelce/Gronk level? 

I feel like Knox is a break out star waiting to happen, but if it doesn't this year, it probably never will. 

You should change your name to Singer, because you are a thread machine. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Knox lost his brother, he certainly gets a pass imo, I think he's going to have a pro bowl season.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

I don’t have the numbers but Joe Marino did a deep dive on this towards the end of the season. The gist of it is that Knox has NOT been kept in to block, his drop issue has improved significantly, and he is open on routes. Dorsey does not have him high in the progression and Josh reads deep to short. He absolutely needs to be emphasized more in the passing game and not as an outlet. That’s on Dorsey. Josh has said himself when they get Knox involved the offense flows much smoother.

 

 

It's a popular narrative to put it all on Dorsey. But I don't buy that. At some point Allen himself needs to be held accountable. Better pre-snap reads and faster progression would get him to Knox. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

I think we are all just kinda hoping it’s the injury, but that bad stretch started the game before the injury.

 

And really two games before. The injury was on like the second to last play of the Jets game where Josh had already thrown 2 interceptions. The first of which was one of the more bizarre ones I have ever seen. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

I also didn’t include comp % down the stretch (which was bad), y/a, etc. You want a full breakdown of every stat. How about the splits? Want those too? If you want to include his 3 rushing TD’s, go for it. But it doesn’t change anything. Listing every stat is pointless when we all know he didn’t play well down the stretch. Unless you think he did?

 

 Point is his QB Rating the final 7 games was 97.08 which was slightly higher than where he finished the year at. Also comp.% was only slightly lower than where he finished the year. A whole point and a half lower. 

 

 The same thing happened to Josh in 2021. We'll go off the same time frame you used, the final 10 games. In those games 22 total tds(19 passing 3 rushing), 14 total turnovers(12 ints, 2 fumbles). Prior to that he had 17 passing tds and only 3 ints. Anyways, after his bad "down the stretch" in 2021 he then went out and had statistically the best postseason ever by a QB. 

 

He plays in Buffalo, his 1st half of the year is always going to outshine the 2nd half of his year. Especially if there are alot of home games in November and December. Or when you play 50 mph wind gusts like in the 2nd to the last game of the year against Chicago. At least until that new stadium gets built and starts tricking the wind.😂

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Asking if Knox can play at Kelce or Gronk level is not fair to Knox. Let's slow our roll before asking if he can play at the level of probably the two greatest tight ends to ever play.

 

TE is an interesting position. Everyone wants to find an elite tight end for obvious reasons. When you have a tight end at the level of a Gronk or Kelce it makes your offense nearly unstoppable. Problem is, in any given year there is typically only one of those guys out of 32 starting tight ends in the league. As great a tight end as George Kittle is, I'd say Kelce is an entire tier better than Kittle. And Kittle is really good. 

 

I haven't really done a deep dive into tight end tiers luck people like to tier QB's, but off the top of my head I would probably say you have Kelce in a tier by himself, and really, he should be like two tiers ahead of the next tier. Then you probably have a tier with Kittle, Andrews and Goedert. Then you have a tier with probably 8-10 guys making up the third tier of tight ends from 5-14. That is basically where Knox is. We are hoping he can get to tier 2. Forget about tier 1. 

[jaybills]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Dawson Knox is paid like a star player.  He has certainly flashed star talent. And he seems like a wonderful human being. I feel like the Bills don't get the expected production of out his salary level because he needs to help in pass protection too much.  A couple of questions which I am sure the more technical football analysts at TBD can help answer. 

1)If we simply add a solid tackle, and handle protections that way, does Knox automatically become more productive
2)If we added a big blocking TE like Darnell Washington, would that make Knox able to be more productive as the pass catching TE/someitme slot receiver

3)If we added both a solid tackel and a blocking TE like Darnell Washington, could Knox's pass catching protection grow to the Kelce/Gronk level? 

I feel like Knox is a break out star waiting to happen, but if it doesn't this year, it probably never will. 

I agree. I gave him a pass last year with what happened to his brother. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Knox lacked production for the same reason our RB’s and Rookie WR did. The OC is highly inexperienced and non creative.  He. Was given the keys to a Ferrari and turned it into a  mustang.  Hopefully year 2 is different but not holding my breath after watching the offense crap the bed in both playoff games.  

 

Oh really? Both games? 

 

Against the Dolphins, 25 first downs, 5.9 yards per play and 34 points scored while turning the ball over 3 times.  None of which should be attributed to Dorsey. Losing the turnover battle 3-2. And Knox dropped a gimmie TD that would have put the Bills at 38 points. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

11 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Asking if Knox can play at Kelce or Gronk level is not fair to Knox. Let's slow our roll before asking if he can play at the level of probably the two greatest tight ends to ever play.

 

TE is an interesting position. Everyone wants to find an elite tight end for obvious reasons. When you have a tight end at the level of a Gronk or Kelce it makes your offense nearly unstoppable. Problem is, in any given year there is typically only one of those guys out of 32 starting tight ends in the league. As great a tight end as George Kittle is, I'd say Kelce is an entire tier better than Kittle. And Kittle is really good. 

 

I haven't really done a deep dive into tight end tiers luck people like to tier QB's, but off the top of my head I would probably say you have Kelce in a tier by himself, and really, he should be like two tiers ahead of the next tier. Then you probably have a tier with Kittle, Andrews and Goedert. Then you have a tier with probably 8-10 guys making up the third tier of tight ends from 5-14. That is basically where Knox is. We are hoping he can get to tier 2. Forget about tier 1. 

 

 Hockenson says hi.

 

 Kelce is by himself as you said. Then I'd put Hockenson, Andrews & Kittle in tier 2. Next would be Goedert, Engram(If he plays like he did last year) and maybe Freiermuth? in tier 3. Knox would currently be tier 4, but should be minimally in tier 3, most likely tier 2 if he gets the targets the other TEs are getting.