Another way to go. Trade way down and stack up #1 picks in 2024

[Chaos]

Seems like a consensu opinion that the 2023 draft class is weak.  One possibility is trading way down and adding some #1 picks in 2024, and recieving back some late picks in the 2023 draft.  In this case we add the lions 2024#1 and the vikings 2024 #1 to go with the Bills 2024 #1.   This will make the 2024 draft more fun to discuss. Some of the players draft below would have an actual chance to make the 53 in 2023. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Chaos

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Seems like a consensu opinion that the 2023 draft class is week.  One possibility is trading way down and adding some #1 picks in 2024, and recieving back some late picks in the 2023 draft.  In this case we add the lions 2024#1 and the vikings 2024 #1 to go with the Bills 2024 #1.   This will make the 2024 draft more fun to discuss. Some of the players draft below would have an actual chance to make the 53 in 2023. 

Teams always love to trade away #1 picks for more picks in a weak draft.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Teams always love to trade away #1 picks for more picks in a weak draft.

I don't make the mock draft rules. PFF does. 

[Mark Vader]

7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Seems like a consensu opinion that the 2023 draft class is week.  One possibility is trading way down and adding some #1 picks in 2024, and recieving back some late picks in the 2023 draft.  In this case we add the lions 2024#1 and the vikings 2024 #1 to go with the Bills 2024 #1.   This will make the 2024 draft more fun to discuss. Some of the players draft below would have an actual chance to make the 53 in 2023. 

I'm fine with trading down this year. Maybe not as far as this chart indicates.

 

Getting more draft picks, no matter how late they would be, sounds better than signing a ton of UDFA's at the end.

[Victory Formation]

I like the idea of trading #27 for a 2nd and a 3rd, but it really depends on who is available. If Bijan, Njigba, Addison, Hyatt, Flowers, Broderick Jones or Paris are there, no way on God’s green Earth would I trade down. But in the right situation, trading down for Avila, Dawand or Charbonnet is not a bad idea at all. It all depends.

[Mike in Horseheads]

5 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I like the idea of trading #27 for a 2nd and a 3rd, but it really depends on who is available. If Bijan, Njigba, Addison, Hyatt, Flowers, Broderick Jones or Paris are there, no way on God’s green Earth would I trade down. But in the right situation, trading down for Avila, Dawand or Charbonnet is not a bad idea at all. It all depends.

Also depends on how far down those 2nd and 3rds are

[Roundybout]

How far down are we talking? If it's down to the 30s, that's fine. Otherwise I don't want us to miss out on a good offensive line prospect that might have fallen. 

[DCofNC]

All depends on who falls, but if the right value is there, trade back.  I could honestly see the Bills going the other way and going up to land a guy.   It SHOULD be a cheap year to move based on the reports of lack of talent at premium positions, so if we see a situation like we saw when Lamb and Jefferson fell, I’d be fine going up 10 spots to land a difference maker.

[mrags]

30 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Seems like a consensu opinion that the 2023 draft class is weak.  One possibility is trading way down and adding some #1 picks in 2024, and recieving back some late picks in the 2023 draft.  In this case we add the lions 2024#1 and the vikings 2024 #1 to go with the Bills 2024 #1.   This will make the 2024 draft more fun to discuss. Some of the players draft below would have an actual chance to make the 53 in 2023. 

I take your paying their subscription price to be able to keep these mocks going? It’s only like $6 for the month until the draft. I just have such a hard time giving anyone money when there’s so many free ones around. PFFs format I do like and believe they have a real good take on where guys will go. But it’s not 100%. Way too many times I’ve done them and see the Steelers pick up Robinson in the first, or some other time picking up a guy they absolutely would not. I can’t see in a million years any chance the Steelers pick up another RB though. Not with Harris on their roster. 

[4merper4mer]

It’s all so absurd but I have to admit Juice Scruggs is a cool name.

[Dopey]

16 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

It’s all so absurd but I have to admit Juice Scruggs is a cool name.

I like LB Bumper Pool. 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I like the idea of trading #27 for a 2nd and a 3rd, but it really depends on who is available. If Bijan, Njigba, Addison, Hyatt, Flowers, Broderick Jones or Paris are there, no way on God’s green Earth would I trade down. But in the right situation, trading down for Avila, Dawand or Charbonnet is not a bad idea at all. It all depends.

Gotta add Darnell Walker's name to the list. He neutralized the draft's best pass rusher by himself and limited sacks on his QB

[Marlton Bills]

7 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I like the idea of trading #27 for a 2nd and a 3rd, but it really depends on who is available. If Bijan, Njigba, Addison, Hyatt, Flowers, Broderick Jones or Paris are there, no way on God’s green Earth would I trade down. But in the right situation, trading down for Avila, Dawand or Charbonnet is not a bad idea at all. It all depends.

Those are the only reasons someone might trade up!

[Doc Brown]

Four most realistic scenarios and what I think is the most likely in order.

1.) We get lucky and a first round prospect is available to us at 27 at a premium position of need.

2.)Beane trades up a few spots to get the last guy he has graded as a first round prospect.

3.)  We reach for a 2nd round prospect at 27 because we can't find a trade partner to trade back into the 2nd.

4.)  We trade our first round pick for some other team's second along with multiple day two and three picks (a 3rd and a 5th for example)

[TheBeaneBandit]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Four most realistic scenarios and what I think is the most likely in order.

1.) We get lucky and a first round prospect is available to us at 27 at a premium position of need.

2.)Beane trades up a few spots to get the last guy he has graded as a first round prospect.

3.)  We reach for a 2nd round prospect at 27 because we can't find a trade partner to trade back into the 2nd.

4.)  We trade our first round pick for some other team's second along with multiple day two and three picks (a 3rd and a 5th for example)

I think #2 is most likely ala the Elam pick. This time from a run on receivers.

[Simon Says]

You must have too much time on your hands .

We don't have to accept the premise that this is a "weak draft", Beane has to work smart; add rookie contributors and development players ,and optimize value on cheap rookie deals.

I see you picked multiple Edge,WR and CB  but not MLB,a critical need. 

This draft has tackles and tight ends that could help the Bills but you ignore them.

Even a day 3 RB could make the roster as a special teamer  for example.

You  like to play with draft simulators but don't seem to care about improving the roster. Fail...

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Chaos said:

I don't make the mock draft rules. PFF does. 

 

 

Yeah, the rules you are following there are indeed rules for mock drafts. Not real ones.

 

And add #1 picks? Plural? When we have the #26 pick or very close in each round? Please.

 

The mock engines are fun, but they make it easier to trade than it generally actually is, because it's more fun that way for the customers, internet draft fans.

 

There are several draft charts, but all of them give roughly the same message on the theoretical trades here. The draft engine is giving you unrealistically high values. And why not? They want people to feel like a genius and like they want to come back.

 

#27  680 points

#59  310  points

#91  136  points

#130  42 points

#137  37.5 points

#205  7.8 points

 

That's 1213.3 points, a value about halfway between the 11th and 12th pick. 

 

Teams that trade up generally have to give a bit of a premium, 20% or so, but there are plenty of times when a GM doesn't get that good an offer.

 

If it were really as easy as you make it look here, teams would do it all the time, especially stable GMs along the lines of a Belichick. It isn't that easy. Belichick did pull it off a few times, but found people learned from watching and didn't want to do it anymore, particularly when the Pats picks came so late in the round. As ours do.

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Big Turk]

Way too much Madden playing to think this would happen in real life.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Four most realistic scenarios and what I think is the most likely in order.

1.) We get lucky and a first round prospect is available to us at 27 at a premium position of need.

2.)Beane trades up a few spots to get the last guy he has graded as a first round prospect.

3.)  We reach for a 2nd round prospect at 27 because we can't find a trade partner to trade back into the 2nd.

4.)  We trade our first round pick for some other team's second along with multiple day two and three picks (a 3rd and a 5th for example)

 

Yea they are the four scenarios.... not sure I agree with your order. I think:

 

1) Beane stands pat and takes a 2nd round guy at #27

Rationale: I think anyone outside the top 15 is likely doing this. I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to trade up into the late 1st from teams because of the general weakness of the class and because I think all 4 QBs (most likely trade up targets) are gone by this point.

 

2) Beane trades up to the early 20s for his last remaining 1st round grade 

Rationale: He did it last year and if ever there was a year to not be worried about giving up assets later in a draft it is this year. 

 

3) We trade back out of the first

Rationale: I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to come up for the reason I explained earlier but let's say the Raiders want to get aggressive (McDaniels needs to show real progress year 2 especially after voluntarily giving up a good QB) and the Bills were willing to take a bit less than the trade value chart says - say the Raiders 3rd round comp pick and one of their early 5ths I could imagine a deal being done. 

 

4) A 1st round talent slides to us at #27

Rationale: I only have 12 first round grades. If you include all 4 QBs that gets you to 15. That is a lot of sliding someone needs to do. It would only be an off-field or injury reason and the Bills under this regime have been very risk averse in those circumstances on draft day. 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by GunnerBill

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

Teams always love to trade away #1 picks for more picks in a weak draft.

Depends on teams boards and where good value appears. Teams always look to trade forward and back. 

 

The issue of it being a weak draft is really not in play. It's about perceived value, needs of the team, and a desire to get their player especially if trading up or back makes sense. 

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

All depends on who falls, but if the right value is there, trade back.  I could honestly see the Bills going the other way and going up to land a guy.   It SHOULD be a cheap year to move based on the reports of lack of talent at premium positions, so if we see a situation like we saw when Lamb and Jefferson fell, I’d be fine going up 10 spots to land a difference maker.

The move up still won't be cheap or cheaper. The value system is in place and I don't think teams moving down will give other teams discounts based on a supposed weak draft.