Offensive outlook post Free Agency

[Success]

I actually think we have plenty for Allen to work with now - IF we can give him time in the pocket.  McGovern is a good start, but shore up the line in the draft (as you mention) and we should be in great shape.

 

Harris will give us a real running game. Perfect complement to Cook.  And I think Allen will get the best out of our FA additions at WR - who both give us skills that were lacking for the most part (speed, good hands, YAC).

 

The key is the line.  Even a  line that could be top 15 or even top 10 would make it almost impossible to stop this offense.

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

51 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

The first week of Free Agency is over and we are beginning to see where Beane felt the Bills came up short offensively. 

 

The Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield signings are an indication to me that the Bills felt they weren't dynamic enough at receiver. We now have two guys with wheels who can also create their own space against zone defenses.

 

The only mystery to me is why Shakir was not given a bigger role last season after it became evident Mckenzie was a liability against zone defenses? My guess is they needed Mckenzie as that twitchy slot receiver and Shakir was looked at as the # 3 outside receiver. I think it is expected Shakir takes a big step and plays a larger role in the offense moving forward.

 

Those looking for a receiver early on in the draft will be disappointed. I believe Beane still thinks Gabe Davis is a #2 receiver and that he let him and Diggs down by having such a weak group behind them. In a cap world you have to be strategic with your upgrades and improving your # 3/4/5 receivers will ultimately improve Gabe Davis's numbers as well. I am not saying I necessarily agree with this thinking but...

 

The fastest way for this offense to improve is to improve the oline and the Bills have already taken that step by handing McGovern a big contract. Watching the Bills near the end of last year you could see alot of their offensive play calling was tanked from poor oline play. That might be more of an indictment on our coaches but will never know what Allen's limitations and abilities were with that partially torn UCL. 

 

Those wanting olinemen in Round 1 or 2 are going to be happy because this is the direction I think Beane is going to go. I think Brown needs to be replaced and I'd be looking Right Tackle in Round 1 but I could also see the Bills wanting to upgrade on Bates and instead taking a guard. O'Cyrus Torrence would be my target in Round 1 and Steve Avila could be a Round 2 trade up target if Beane goes elsewhere in round 1.

 

I am hoping Dawson Knox has a rebound season and he shouldn't be held accountable for having a down year after the tragic events of last summer. 

 

The running game seems fairly standard. By improving the oline you expect improved play from Cook and Hines. Harris finally gives us a back who can actually gain tough yards in short yardage situations. It would be nice for our RB's to run the ball for 1st downs instead of Allen risking his health on 3rd and 3. Heck maybe will actually see some screens to our backs this season with improved olinemen.

 

 

great assessment. 

[NewEra]

46 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

I'm with you but I think this regime has grown tired of Josh running for his life every 2nd play and our backs always having to make their own holes. 

 

A bad oline will always tank any decent offense outside the 2021 Bengals.

We only have 6 picks. The OL talent in this draft is poor outside the top two Rounds which is why I think they grab one early. This is definitely a good draft to grab a Tight end or slot in the middle rounds. We still need to use some picks on the defense. 

I’d love to see Broderick Joness/Anton Harrison or Darnell Wright rd 1 and Avila or Schmitz in rd 2.  
 

long term, I think that would help us more than any of the WRs that will be available in rd 1-2

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’d love to see Broderick Joness/Anton Harrison or Darnell Wright rd 1 and Avila or Schmitz in rd 2.  
 

long term, I think that would help us more than any of the WRs that will be available in rd 1-2

I really think they should go all in on offense this offseason, though I highly doubt they will. If they followed your idea here, I'd still like to add OBJ and then draft maybe Tucker Kraft in the third. That would truly be a very significant upgrade and set Josh Allen and the Bills up for success.

[NewEra]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

I really think they should go all in on offense this offseason, though I highly doubt they will. If they followed your idea here, I'd still like to add OBJ and then draft maybe Tucker Kraft in the third. That would truly be a very significant upgrade and set Josh Allen and the Bills up for success.

I don’t think teams ever “go all in” on one side of the ball.  It’s close to impossible.  Most resources, sure.  Never all.  It’s irresponsible.  

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think teams ever “go all in” on one side of the ball.  It’s close to impossible.  Most resources, sure.  Never all.  It’s irresponsible.  

I'm sure they won't. I think they owe the offense some. I also believe that we are in an era where the best offense beats the best defense most of the time.

Main defensive needs imo: MLB, DT, young depth at safety, and they are still mediocre at best at edge. The only one of those that is absolutely pressing is LB, but DT is an issue and the predraft meetings show they are aware of it. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think teams ever “go all in” on one side of the ball.  It’s close to impossible.  Most resources, sure.  Never all.  It’s irresponsible.  

 

There is definitely room on the O for a WR, OL and TE in the draft.

Adding let's say another OL would be "all in" in my opinion.

 

Another "all in" would be the WR, OL and TE all in the first 4 picks even if the other 3 were D.

[Airseven]

Outlook isn’t much different at this point. Swapping Saffold/McGovern and McKenzie/Sherfield/Harty are perhaps slight upgrades but they don’t move the needle. These are depth players. I’ll take Harris over Singletary as I think he can be more explosive - IF healthy. There’s still a concerning reliance on Brown and Davis. We’ll see what the draft brings.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Airseven

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

50 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

We also need a LB, DT and S. I expect a few more of these cheap vets will be added so not relying on rookies. I like the idea of Shell at RT, Lawson at DE and Phillips at DT to shore up depth. 

I just don’t know what Lawson gives you.  I’d rather get an edge type to replace Von while he’s hurt like Houston, Ingram, Ngwuke. I want a rest to pay OT who’s gonna challenge Brown and is capable of taking over in fall camp.  I don’t think She’ll is anything more than a backup. DT I agree with and you can usually find one late that can play.  I totally forgot about our limited draft picks.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

There is definitely room on the O for a WR, OL and TE in the draft.

Adding let's say another OL would be "all in" in my opinion.

 

Another "all in" would be the WR, OL and TE all in the first 4 picks even if the other 3 were D.

I've been trying to figure all the possibilities. Seems to me they have to try and grab either OBJ or Wagner, a solid vet at one of the positions of need. Otherwise, you're asking the draft to do too much. I favor OL and TE on offense in the draft. You can't go past early second at LB imo. TE has good depth, but its also a position that might have real talent available at 27.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Dr. Who

[harmonkillebrew]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

The question is, will Beane draft more O-line within the first three picks, as it stands presently we still need to fill Edmunds spot, in FA or the draft, so it’s likely that one of those first three picks goes to the defense if no FA is signed to fill that role, plus, we could stand another WR2 level selection,  I am not so confident Beane will use two of those pick on O-linemen, which means one in the top three picks, and PS level lower picks for the line, so far we have seen incremental improvement with FA signings, which is good, it is needed, but, the O line needs more attention if we want to see improved post season success.

 

GO  BILLS!!! 

Unless we get Bobby Wagner or some other short-term vet, I think Beane has to go LB with the 1st, maybe wait till the 2nd. It's the QB of the D.

 

He then better get some competition at RG and RT, but that can wait until Rd 2-5. 

 

I'd also still like to see them add someone to push Gabe Davis on the outside. So if we can fill MLB before the draft, the focus could switch to WR

[Nephilim17]

We need a potential number 1 receiver to be drafted this year or next. Our books are very, very tight cap-wise the next couple years and we need cost-effective labor.

 

90% of the people here just want to sign some star free agent but you can't keep doing that pay Josh and Steph and Von and others without the young talent coming up through the draft. We're going to turn into the Rams — possibly without a championship — if all we do is sign or trade for high-cost vets.

[khlax3]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

 

I don't think Beane has any intention of replacing Spencer Brown at this point based how he went on and on about how he was impressed with his progress in his most recent presser.  

 
I agree. I think the bills have already set their starting 5 oline for this year. I expect them to sign a vet FA with starting experience to push brown and be the swing tackle and then draft a c/g prospect in the 3-5 rounds. Everyone expecting a 1st round olineman is going to be very disappointed. Everytime Beane speaks he talks up Brown and it sure seems to me based on what the other 4 guys are getting paid they will all be starters this year 

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

We need a potential number 1 receiver to be drafted this year or next. Our books are very, very tight cap-wise the next couple years and we need cost-effective labor.

 

90% of the people here just want to sign some star free agent but you can't keep doing that pay Josh and Steph and Von and others without the young talent coming up through the draft. We're going to turn into the Rams — possibly without a championship — if all we do is sign or trade for high-cost vets.

Unfortunately, this is not a good year for WR in the draft. I don't think potential WR1 falls to 27. I do think Dalton Kincaid has a chance to be a real offensive threat at TE and he might.

[Don Otreply]

15 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Unless we get Bobby Wagner or some other short-term vet, I think Beane has to go LB with the 1st, maybe wait till the 2nd. It's the QB of the D.

 

He then better get some competition at RG and RT, but that can wait until Rd 2-5. 

 

I'd also still like to see them add someone to push Gabe Davis on the outside. So if we can fill MLB before the draft, the focus could switch to WR

Valid thoughts, i tend to agree for the most part, i would like to see a Wagner level LB signed in FA, that would be ideal i would think 

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, HaldimandBills said:

The first week of Free Agency is over and we are beginning to see where Beane felt the Bills came up short offensively. 

 

The Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield signings are an indication to me that the Bills felt they weren't dynamic enough at receiver. We now have two guys with wheels who can also create their own space against zone defenses.

 

The only mystery to me is why Shakir was not given a bigger role last season after it became evident Mckenzie was a liability against zone defenses? My guess is they needed Mckenzie as that twitchy slot receiver and Shakir was looked at as the # 3 outside receiver. I think it is expected Shakir takes a big step and plays a larger role in the offense moving forward.

 

Those looking for a receiver early on in the draft will be disappointed. I believe Beane still thinks Gabe Davis is a #2 receiver and that he let him and Diggs down by having such a weak group behind them. In a cap world you have to be strategic with your upgrades and improving your # 3/4/5 receivers will ultimately improve Gabe Davis's numbers as well. I am not saying I necessarily agree with this thinking but...

 

The fastest way for this offense to improve is to improve the oline and the Bills have already taken that step by handing McGovern a big contract. Watching the Bills near the end of last year you could see alot of their offensive play calling was tanked from poor oline play. That might be more of an indictment on our coaches but will never know what Allen's limitations and abilities were with that partially torn UCL. 

 

Those wanting olinemen in Round 1 or 2 are going to be happy because this is the direction I think Beane is going to go. I think Brown needs to be replaced and I'd be looking Right Tackle in Round 1 but I could also see the Bills wanting to upgrade on Bates and instead taking a guard. O'Cyrus Torrence would be my target in Round 1 and Steve Avila could be a Round 2 trade up target if Beane goes elsewhere in round 1.

 

I am hoping Dawson Knox has a rebound season and he shouldn't be held accountable for having a down year after the tragic events of last summer. 

 

The running game seems fairly standard. By improving the oline you expect improved play from Cook and Hines. Harris finally gives us a back who can actually gain tough yards in short yardage situations. It would be nice for our RB's to run the ball for 1st downs instead of Allen risking his health on 3rd and 3. Heck maybe will actually see some screens to our backs this season with improved olinemen.

 

 

Thats a real nice summation of where things stand right now on offense Haldimand.  What do you think of taking the TE Kincaid from Utah w our 1st round pick if he is still there.  The guy was a big time playmaker at Utah.  But is that really imperative given that we already probably underutilize Knox, who is pretty solid if not special?   A lot of teams have two good TEs'.  Why can't we?  And can Quinton Morris be that guy?

 

I agree about the O line needing reinforcements.  Spencer Brown is definitely a weak link on the line.  I am not sure he is even an NFL caliber player starter or reserve.  And interesting about Bates.  He didn't suck last year.  Does he have a high enough ceiling to be a starter on a team thinking Super Bowl?  Not sure.  It does sound tempting going O line in the first two rounds.  And having new starters at LG, RG, and RT.  With Bates being the #1 IOL reserve.  And then there is Ike Boetger.  The guy plays tough and has somewhat of a mean streak.  Can he be a solid starter at G if he can stay healthy?  I have always like his toughness.  And who replaces Morse when he hangs it up?  He has been a leader and a good solid player over his tenure w the Bills.  Will there be a drop off in his play at some point in the near future?  Or will he play well enough this year that he gets another extension that keeps him playing into his mid 30's?  He just is a tough dude.  Reminds of some of the guys who played O line for the old Raiders teams of the 70's.  With all the tape and casts on their hands and arms.  LOL.  That was old school football in the trenches of the highest degree... 

[The Jokeman]

33 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I just don’t know what Lawson gives you.  I’d rather get an edge type to replace Von while he’s hurt like Houston, Ingram, Ngwuke. I want a rest to pay OT who’s gonna challenge Brown and is capable of taking over in fall camp.  I don’t think She’ll is anything more than a backup. DT I agree with and you can usually find one late that can play.  I totally forgot about our limited draft picks.

Lawson gives an edge defender that occasionally can get to the QB. Essentially what we want Boogie to be.

[14774]

I think they have made some reasonable upgrades, but the wild card is still Dorsey's playcalling. All the talent in the world won't do any good if they're not used appropriately. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Thats a real nice summation of where things stand right now on offense Haldimand.  What do you think of taking the TE Kincaid from Utah w our 1st round pick if he is still there.  The guy was a big time playmaker at Utah.  But is that really imperative given that we already probably underutilize Knox, who is pretty solid if not special?   A lot of teams have two good TEs'.  Why can't we?  And can Quinton Morris be that guy?

 

I agree about the O line needing reinforcements.  Spencer Brown is definitely a weak link on the line.  I am not sure he is even an NFL caliber player starter or reserve.  And interesting about Bates.  He didn't suck last year.  Does he have a high enough ceiling to be a starter on a team thinking Super Bowl?  Not sure.  It does sound tempting going O line in the first two rounds.  And having new starters at LG, RG, and RT.  With Bates being the #1 IOL reserve.  And then there is Ike Boetger.  The guy plays tough and has somewhat of a mean streak.  Can he be a solid starter at G if he can stay healthy?  I have always like his toughness.  And who replaces Morse when he hangs it up?  He has been a leader and a good solid player over his tenure w the Bills.  Will there be a drop off in his play at some point in the near future?  Or will he play well enough this year that he gets another extension that keeps him playing into his mid 30's?  He just is a tough dude.  Reminds of some of the guys who played O line for the old Raiders teams of the 70's.  With all the tape and casts on their hands and arms.  LOL.  That was old school football in the trenches of the highest degree... 

I can't answer for that fella. I think Bates could potentially be a starting C. If you look upthread, I've spelled out how I see things. The reason you might consider drafting Kincaid is he is a dangerous offensive weapon and two above average TEs allows one to employ 12 personnel, an offense that Dorsey has favored in the past. It stresses the defense and puts a lot of uncertainty into the equation. Since I doubt a WR1 is going to be sitting there at 27 and Kincaid could conceivably drop, I think it's a real consideration for Beane.

[Nephilim17]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Unfortunately, this is not a good year for WR in the draft. I don't think potential WR1 falls to 27. I do think Dalton Kincaid has a chance to be a real offensive threat at TE and he might.

Yeah, I know. So I said this year or the next. We can't pay for Josh, Steph and Jerry Jeudy or some other WR $20 million a year going forward. Maybe squeeze it in on a front-loaded deal but we'll be in trouble later and like it or not, Beane claims we need to compete every year. Perhaps some this year are "all in" and the future be damned. I'm not one of them.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Nephilim17