Josh Allen Era - Ch. 1 - "Frazier-Edmunds Defense" is Complete, what will define the next chapter?

[BillsPride12]

Good but not good enough.

 

This era Bills team will always be looked at fondly for breaking the drought and then bringing the Bills back to respectability across the Nation.  This also brought along heightened expectations of being perennial favorites to win a Super Bowl by now, which they have fallen short of so far.

 

It won't be a bad legacy but we won't look back on these years like we do with the Kelly/Marv/Bruce Super Bowl years.  But there's still more chapters to be written with this current regime so we will see how it ends up.

[Paup 1995MVP]

20 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Aaron Rodgers was the back-to-back MVP in 2020-2021.  His "bad" 2022 season was still pretty good by most other QB standards. 

The Jets roster otherwise is stacked with young talent.  They have been held back by poor QB play.  Even a 2022 repeat season from Rodgers probably wins them the division.

 

The only issue with the Dolphins is the health of Tua Tagovailoa.  His first concussion issues derailed the team's hot start.  Missing the playoffs cost them a Wild Card victory (over us).  Guys with head injuries may be more likely to suffer them again.  But not guaranteed.  Dismissing them because they "are the Dolphins" is the same mistake the Patriots made with us a few years back.

 

 

As I mentioned elsewhere in the thread... I don't have any problems with signing McGovern or letting Edmunds walk.

 

I just think the damage to this roster was done during the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.  That is how you keep the cupboard stocked when free agency steals your starters.  And we walked away from those drafts without sufficient talent, and now we are going to pay for it.

 

I agree about your assessment of the past 3 drafts.  Certainly not good enough.  I am not a draft expert.  I watch a lot of college football.  But follow the teams more then the individual players.  Except for my beloved Michigan Wolverines.  My older son who plays college football, did not like the Epenesa or Basham picks.  Thought neither was going to do much in the pros.  And he was right so far.  Why do you think Beane is missing the mark so much with our draft picks.  (I certainly did not like drafting Spencer Brown and Tommy Doyle to play OT.  Why draft two small college guys to play O line in the NFL?  It just make much sense.)

 

I am not in total agreement about your assessment of the Jets or the Dolphins.  I don't see Aaron Rodgers dominating anymore.  He certainly wasn't great last year.  And I am not sold on any team that has Tua as their starter.  The Bills weakness has been their O line.  It has not been close to good enough.  We get that in order, I see us ruling the division again this year.  

[mjt328]

20 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

I agree about your assessment of the past 3 drafts.  Certainly not good enough.  I am not a draft expert.  I watch a lot of college football.  But follow the teams more then the individual players.  Except for my beloved Michigan Wolverines.  My older son who plays college football, did not like the Epenesa or Basham picks.  Thought neither was going to do much in the pros.  And he was right so far.  Why do you think Beane is missing the mark so much with our draft picks.  (I certainly did not like drafting Spencer Brown and Tommy Doyle to play OT.  Why draft two small college guys to play O line in the NFL?  It just make much sense.)

 

As a GM, it's much easier to rebuild a team from scratch (assuming you land the right Quarterback right off the bat) than it is to conquer the final hurdle or to maintain consistent year-to-year success.  Think about it.  At the beginning, you have tons of cap space.  You have really high draft picks.  Most spots on the roster need to be upgraded, so you don't need to focus on specific needs.

 

As the Bills have gotten closer to the Super Bowl goal, it's gotten trickier to find the last piece to the puzzle.  Once the Bills reached the doorstep (the 2020 AFC Championship), Brandon Beane identified the pass rush as that missing piece.  And most of his focus and resources have gone towards upgrading that unit.  Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Von Miller, Daquon Jones, Tim Settle, etc.

 

My opinion is that Beane has started to "reach" in the draft in recent years, because he's desperate to fill-out the biggest needs on his roster.  Unfortunately, the team's biggest need (Edge Rusher) happens to be one of the most difficult positions to find a difference maker.  Beane's scouting preference also seems to lean more towards high-ceiling, developmental players (as opposed to safer choices with less risk).  Combine all of that with constantly having late (mid-20s) draft picks.... and you basically have a recipe for very high bust potential.

 

Overall, I can't necessarily blame Beane for taking this approach.  He's bold and swings for the fences. 

Regardless, when a team has 2-3 straight years of subpar drafting... it's really hard to maintain a championship level roster.

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

18 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

As a GM, it's much easier to rebuild a team from scratch (assuming you land the right Quarterback right off the bat) than it is to conquer the final hurdle or to maintain consistent year-to-year success.  Think about it.  At the beginning, you have tons of cap space.  You have really high draft picks.  Most spots on the roster need to be upgraded, so you don't need to focus on specific needs.

 

As the Bills have gotten closer to the Super Bowl goal, it's gotten trickier to find the last piece to the puzzle.  Once the Bills reached the doorstep (the 2020 AFC Championship), Brandon Beane identified the pass rush as that missing piece.  And most of his focus and resources have gone towards upgrading that unit.  Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Von Miller, Daquon Jones, Tim Settle, etc.

 

My opinion is that Beane has started to "reach" in the draft in recent years, because he's desperate to fill-out the biggest needs on his roster.  Unfortunately, the team's biggest need (Edge Rusher) happens to be one of the most difficult positions to find a difference maker.  Beane's scouting preference also seems to lean more towards high-ceiling, developmental players (as opposed to safer choices with less risk).  Combine all of that with constantly having late (mid-20s) draft picks.... and you basically have a recipe for very high bust potential.

 

Overall, I can't necessarily blame Beane for taking this approach.  He's bold and swings for the fences. 

Regardless, when a team has 2-3 straight years of subpar drafting... it's really hard to maintain a championship level roster.

 

Thanks for the opinion.  I like your analysis of how Beane is drafting with the high ceiling, developmental players.  I think with Rousseau that is spot on.  Lets hope he keeps getting better.  (Bruce Smith was not great his first few years either)  I don't see the same upside with Epenesa and Basham.  And Spencer Brown looks lousy.  (I personally do not like O lineman who are that tall.  Difficult to get any leverage going against guys 4-5 inches or more shorter)  Maybe Tommy Doyle when healthy will end up being a big surprise.  

[Utah John]

I suspect the reason Frazier left (yeah, he's coming back next year, sure, hahaha) is that he knew Edmunds was leaving.  Frazier put together a very good regular season D, and Edmunds was a big part of it.  Replacing Edmunds with a normal-sized, normal-speed LB is probably not happening, and Frazier didn't want to have to re-do his entire D with someone less athletic.  

[C.Biscuit97]

51 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Thanks for the opinion.  I like your analysis of how Beane is drafting with the high ceiling, developmental players.  I think with Rousseau that is spot on.  Lets hope he keeps getting better.  (Bruce Smith was not great his first few years either)  I don't see the same upside with Epenesa and Basham.  And Spencer Brown looks lousy.  (I personally do not like O lineman who are that tall.  Difficult to get any leverage going against guys 4-5 inches or more shorter)  Maybe Tommy Doyle when healthy will end up being a big surprise.  

Good post. There was no upside with AJ. He was maxed out in college. He was supposed to be a good solid all around DE who won’t never be a double digit sack guy.  I agree on GR and we have seen flashes. 
 

but as much as fans want to blame Frazier and Edmunds (again, back to back #1 defenses), I think the d line and drafting deserves a lot of blame. They got destroyed by cincy’s back o line. 

[T master]

On 3/13/2023 at 8:36 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thank god that chapter is closed. It was awful having the number 1 defense back to back. 
 

this next chapter is going to be “Josh, you have a ton of money so need to carry the team”

 

And the difference with that would be ????