Lamar Jackson wants guarantees that exceed Watson contract

[Behindenemylines]

What would be interesting is if nobody offers his amount and he sits a season to avoid the tag. What would he look like and how much would his value diminish. 
 

I believe in his mind his value might go up 

 

I don’t mind Jackson and he appears to be a decent guy.  Just not fully aware of his actual situation and the fact he’s probably 65% of the way to his useful expiration date. 

[BarleyNY]

16 minutes ago, Calidiehard said:

You keep saying you don't resort to that crap, yet you are are going to the other side that he was smart about it and played it well. You make assumptions that I would be lying or dumb as $h*t if I say I would have played. Well we know what happens when you assume. Too many examples of good to great players battling through injury with teammates in the playoffs to show that what Lamar did was selfish and undeserving of the contract he is asking for. 

On the other comment of him basically being a free agent as soon as the regular season ended is just a BS statement by someone looking to defend him. He becomes a free agent at the same time as everyone else, at the start of the new league year which is March 15th. Was he also getting paid to milk his injury at the end of the regular season?

While it could’ve been stated more civilly, @Dopey is 100% correct. Jackson would’ve been risking upwards of 9 figures by playing. Any sane agent or advisor would have told him to sit. Certainly there are always people who do not act rationally because of emotion or other reasons, but in this case those would have been rare exceptions. The Ravens knew that the scenario they found themselves in was a possibility and they still didn’t think Lamar was worth what he was asking. Sometimes when both sides make business decisions it plays out like this. 

[Jerome007]

20 hours ago, Gregg said:

Lamar should have taken the 250M/133M guaranteed.

What? Are you serious? 133M is an insult. How can he pay his groceries? Have you seen the price of eggs lately?

 

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Yes he should have taken this. Sweet deal. And maybe he should realize that the Ravens basically built their offense for his unique set of skills. He likely won't be as good elsewhere. It seems he wants out. 

[Limeaid]

47 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

Yes he should have taken this. Sweet deal. And maybe he should realize that the Ravens basically built their offense for his unique set of skills. He likely won't be as good elsewhere. It seems he wants out. 

 

And the OC who specializes in Running Offenses is out so it is clear that they wish to change offense now that Jackson is not in reasonable picture.

[BillsFan4]

The Ravens offer seems good, but it depends on if the $133M was the total guaranteed or what was guaranteed at signing.

 

If you look at the total guaranteed money:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/broncos-give-russell-wilson-monster-extension-where-qb-stacks-up-among-richest-contracts-in-nfl-history/

 

the $130M in guarantees doesn’t even put him in the top 5 for QBs. It would put him at #7, just ahead of Matt Stafford.

 

Deshaun Watson - $230 million

Russell Wilson - $165 million

Kyler Murray - $160 million

Aaron Rodgers - $150,815,000

Josh Allen - $150 million

Patrick Mahomes - $141,481,905

Matthew Stafford - $130 million

Dak Prescott - $126 million

 

ESPN is reporting the guaranteed at signing of the other QBs contracts they are comparing Lamar’s offer to, but we still don’t know if the $133M the ravens offered was the total guaranteed or what was guaranteed at signing. It might be the total guaranteed money since it’s coming from the team and I ‘d assume they’d want to make the offer look as good as possible to the press in this case. But it could also be the guaranteed at signing amount since I do believe they are making an honest effort to keep Lamar (so I’m sure they know offering him such low total guarantees compared to other QBs  wouldn’t get it done).

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-total-guarantees-vs-full-guarantees-and-the-ways-contracts-should-be-evaluated/

 

for all practical purposes, total guarantees in a QB’s contract are pretty reliably paid since they usually become guaranteed a year prior anyway. But still, I’d like to see what the total guarantees were vs. guaranteed at signing in the contract offered to Lamar, and how it was structured.

 

Structure matters a lot too.

 

For ex: when Allen signed his new deal he took slightly less than Mahomes in total annual value ($43M vs Mahomes $45M). But if you look at the way their contracts are paid out, Allen actually makes more in new money and cash flow than Mahomes every year for his entire 6yr deal.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-comparing-patrick-mahomes-and-josh-allen-contracts-making-them-nfls-highest-paid-players/

 

The devil is in the details, as they say. Without knowing all the details it’s hard to say if Lamar is being unreasonable. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

21 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

The problem is Lamar not been healthy the last two seasons but the NFL is a passing league first and Lamar doesn't fit that mold.  

 

I'd need to see him play in the new non-roman offense to determine where he fits.  

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I hope Lamar gets paid and resets the market. Allen is already signed long term to relatively team friendly deal. A monster deal to Lamar early in the off-season would put a ton of pressure on the Bengals, Chargers, and possibly Jaguars later to tie up their cap with exorbitant QB contracts and guarantees moving forward. 

Baltimore isn't a dumb organization, I mean look back to when got Lamar, they still had Flacco in the fold and ultimately did a 180 and built an offense around Lamar. So they should be able to do another 180 and go with another QB assuming they have the right OC/players around said QB. If Lamar had been healthy the last two seasons and been in the top 5 amongst QBs passing/rushing stats am sure they'd be a lil more willing to hand out some guaranteed money but he hasn't. Therefore he doesn't deserve the money he thinks he deserves and/or wants. I fully expect him 1)Be traded for at least a 1st Round pick in this coming draft or more around draft day, 2)Play on the franchise tag with Baltimore and show he's a top 5 QB and get a long term deal 3))Play on the franchise tag with Baltimore and struggle with health again and traded late in the season or just not re-signed. 

[TheBrownBear]

2 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

Jackson (who desperately needs to hire a quality agent) has to get it through his head that the Browns deal with Watson was an aberration and is accepted as such around the league -- and should not be viewed in any way as some sort of "starting point" in negotiations.

I doubt he actually thinks he'll get what he's asking for.  At this point, he's probably hoping that the Ravens call his bluff as to force a trade and then he'll work out a deal with the new team.  I think the bridge has been burned in Baltimore and he has no intention of ever signing an extension there.

[JoPoy88]

5 hours ago, nucci said:

Other owners are probably really happy with the Browns

 

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

21 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He showed his character by playing at all. He risked playing and got injured believing the Ravens were going to do right by him. Lamar is a better QB than Murray/Wilson. The Ravens offered him a contract less than theirs. Total disrespect IMO. Lamar Jackson is the main reason Ravens stadium is filled. That alone should warrant the money

Ravens stadium was filled bro long before Lamar ever set foot there.  He is overrated.  And he quit on his team.  Last I heard he was still getting paid during the 2022 season, even if it wasn't the offer that you feel he should get.  The Ravens don't really want him at this point.  But they need to pump him up to get maximum value in a trade for him.  He isn't leading any team to the promised land.  He was a curiosity.  And now has been figured out.  

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

The Ravens offer seems good, but it depends on if the $133M was the total guaranteed or what was guaranteed at signing.

 

If you look at the total guaranteed money:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/broncos-give-russell-wilson-monster-extension-where-qb-stacks-up-among-richest-contracts-in-nfl-history/

 

the $130M in guarantees doesn’t even put him in the top 5 for QBs. It would put him at #7, just ahead of Matt Stafford.

 

This is the Ravens offer as of today and I agree with what you said in your excellent post (especially about Allen and Mahomes).

The difference really is what Lamar was offered in 2021 when Allen signed.  It was reported it was a bit above what Josh got AAV and

bonus prorated, but on a 5-year deal whereas Allen got 6.

 

The thing is since that time (when I contest Lamar should have signed) he has not completed his last 2 seasons.

Back in the summer of 2021 he had a previous 2 season record of 24-6 and had an MVP.  His stock was at the highest.

Missing 5 games the last 2 seasons has reduced his guarantee's. 

 

His stock is down from 2021 and if he gets injured again this season............................................................

[LABILLBACKER]

26 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Ravens stadium was filled bro long before Lamar ever set foot there.  He is overrated.  And he quit on his team.  Last I heard he was still getting paid during the 2022 season, even if it wasn't the offer that you feel he should get.  The Ravens don't really want him at this point.  But they need to pump him up to get maximum value in a trade for him.  He isn't leading any team to the promised land.  He was a curiosity.  And now has been figured out.  

Completely agree....and that Watson contract is an absolute outlier.  You may see guys get up to 50M, but that percentage of guarantee is not happening anytime soon.  Lamar not having an agent is also a big mistake. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Completely agree....and that Watson contract is an absolute outlier.  You may see guys get up to 50M, but that percentage of guarantee is not happening anytime soon.  Lamar not having an agent is also a big mistake. 

 

[JoPoy88]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Completely agree....and that Watson contract is an absolute outlier.  You may see guys get up to 50M, but that percentage of guarantee is not happening anytime soon.  Lamar not having an agent is also a big mistake. 

you and whoever else can characterize Watson’s deal as an outlier or aberration, fact is players and their agents will call it a precedent and use it as such. Owners and GMs know this and is why they are so pissed. 
 

Wait and see what Jackson, Burrow and similarly situated QBs end up getting in the near future and we’ll find out if Watson’s deal was really a one-off.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Ravens stadium was filled bro long before Lamar ever set foot there.  He is overrated.  And he quit on his team.  Last I heard he was still getting paid during the 2022 season, even if it wasn't the offer that you feel he should get.  The Ravens don't really want him at this point.  But they need to pump him up to get maximum value in a trade for him.  He isn't leading any team to the promised land.  He was a curiosity.  And now has been figured out.  

I'd like to see Lamar with an alpha WR then we'll see if he's been figured out. Remember how Josh Allen looked before Stefon Diggs. Jalen Hurts before AJ Brown. 

[Dopey]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

While it could’ve been stated more civilly, @Dopey is 100% correct. Jackson would’ve been risking upwards of 9 figures by playing. Any sane agent or advisor would have told him to sit. Certainly there are always people who do not act rationally because of emotion or other reasons, but in this case those would have been rare exceptions. The Ravens knew that the scenario they found themselves in was a possibility and they still didn’t think Lamar was worth what he was asking. Sometimes when both sides make business decisions it plays out like this. 

I’ll try to watch my tone. Thanks. 

[Dopey]

8 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Well that escalated quickly. I’m talking about Jackson.. playing and getting hurt.. and removing all doubt. I wouldn’t call you a fool. No personal attacks on you. Okay. 

Watson had a terrible 6 or 7 games last year. We’ll see how he looks going forward. The Browns are about twice as talented on offense as those Texans teams were, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Watson name another name for himself in 2023-24. Question is, what direction is Jackson headed in? 

I think Watson will excel. I don’t think Jackson will, unless he stays in Baltimore. Read rumors of Atl for Jackson. Big mistake for Atl. Can’t say mistake for Jackson, as with this scenario he gets paid a boatload. 

[JoPoy88]

12 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I think Watson will excel. I don’t think Jackson will, unless he stays in Baltimore. Read rumors of Atl for Jackson. Big mistake for Atl. Can’t say mistake for Jackson, as with this scenario he gets paid a boatload. 

I don’t know, just on a surface level ATL appears to be run-oriented, with a (potentially) star TE, same as he had in Baltimore. Of course they would have to go even further and tailor their offensive scheme towards Jackson. But it may work?

[Orlando Tim]

Jackson is a weird one for me because he is such an awesome weapon when healthy but his health is certainly a major concern. If I am Jackson and I believe I can get the 250 guaranteed I hold out until I get it. Truly though I probably allow the GM to save face by doing a Mahomes deal where the guaranteed money starts a full season before the one I am entering so it is not practical to cut him. If he gets $100 million signing bonus for a $50 a year contract which guarantees a full year before the one we are entering basically they will have $100 million hit every year except the last one, when it will be cheaper to just keep him. 

[BuffBillsForLife]

Tag and trade is probably the best play if you're the Ravens in this situation.  If I'm a GM I can't give $250m guaranteed to a QB who has missed significant time two years in a row including a playoff game, and has only regressed since his MVP year.  The haul they could get would be immense...if they can find a different GM to give $250m guaranteed.