Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 minutes ago, StHustle said:

with that said, if we were able to get a DHop or someone else who can bump Gabe to #3, he’d be the best #3 in the league imo. I also think we’d have the best over WR corp in the league cause our #3-5 would be tops in the league and #1-2 is in the conversation.

 

Gabe can be a great #3 or even #4 if we start spreading the ball around more on offense. In order, target count should be something like Diggs, Knox, Shakir and then Gabe. That means Gabe stays at the #2 starting outside WR but he's number 4 by target volume. I think that is where Gabe can thrive. 

[BuffaL0L0k0]

On 2/20/2023 at 8:42 AM, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

Mister Chaos @Chaos, great topic, even if I see it one month after you posted! Thanks for the great insight.

[HOUSE]

Reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin

The drops can not continue or he will be gone.

Book it 

[ColoradoBills]

On 2/22/2023 at 8:38 AM, Mango said:

 

 

My stance is to run the direction of your first paragraph. 

I am fine with "easily upgradable". Fine go do it. But the guys you want to target are $15-20M+ per year. If we need two $20M WR we don't have a WR problem, we have a QB problem. I don't believe we have a QB problem. If we can get Mike Evans on an $8-12M deal go for it. Otherwise I have no interest in mortgaging 2024 and 2025 cap space for a WR when both OL and DL suck. 

Wholeheartedly agree that we need a starting slot WR and a change in offensive philosophy. As a guy who watches the A22 every week I am unsure if offensive philosophy is the the total issue. My dumb fan eyes have been telling me the same thing Kurt Warner did at the end of the year, and that is that Allen needs to make the QB position easier and see what the defense is giving him. There is certainly a ton of blame on OC, but Allen deserves a bit as well. 

My plan wouldn't be to just run it back. We have seen over and over again that teams who spread the ball out to tons of WR, RB, TE, etc have pretty solid post season success. And in that environment Gabe Davis is just fine as a cog in the machine. Upgrade OL and the slot. 

 

Great post, especially the bolded.  As to Davis, he does have to snag some of the easy drops and get his catch rate up 10-12%.

 

The offense all starts with the QB, that is undebatable.  The Bills have Josh Allen who is elite, but he has tendencies that have to be acknowledged.

While Josh can learn to identify a receiver and get the ball out very quickly, it will never be his norm.  He wants to hold on to the ball and look for

the big play more than the average QB.  He has the skill set to do that, so it makes sense to me to accept what's in his DNA and build accordingly.

 

If you accept that Josh wants to play the QB position that way, it only makes sense to FIRST put an above average OL in front of him.

That doesn't mean it has to be the top 5 in the league, but they should be shooting for at least a top 10.  My eyes tell me that Josh gets pushed

off his anchor spot in the pocket too much.  That alone throws the timing of the plays off and it turns into a mad scramble.  Luckily, Josh is good

at that but it doesn't mean he should play 50% of the game that way.

 

I will stick to my guns and continue to say the problem is not receivers (Gabe or others), it's the OL.  Give Josh that extra tick of the clock

and keep the plays timing on track and watch the offense take off.  I will be disappointed if the Bills don't add another good lineman in the draft.

Add a WR after the OL this April.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

Reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin

The drops can not continue or he will be gone.

Book it 

 

He's gone in any case.  If he doesn't improve, it's obvious he'll be gone.  But if he does improve, he'll price himself out of the Bills' range.

[Chicken Boo]

Gabe is alright.  He gets the drops under control and he's a 1,000 yard receiver easy, on less than 70 receptions.  

55 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He's gone in any case.  If he doesn't improve, it's obvious he'll be gone.  But if he does improve, he'll price himself out of the Bills' range.

 

And there lies the crux.  I think he's gone regardless.  If he has a good showing in '23 he's a $15 million + per year guy.  

Edited March 26, 2023 by Chicken Boo

[Mat68]

For a #2 he is middle of the NFL.  He isnt the best but good.  His negative is his catch rate.  I feel like that is due to his usage as a deep threat.   Use him more as a big slot I feel would improve his production.  Doing that would require having someone capable of playing outside. 

[Beck Water]

On 2/20/2023 at 8:51 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

 

Why do you say that?

 

I'm asking as a serious question, because AFAIK there are only 5 or so teams in the NFL that have a tandem of receivers where both have over 1000 yds.  (targets in parens)

Eagles: AJ Brown (145) and Davonta Smith (136)

Bengals: Chase (134) and Higgins (109)
Seahawks: Metcalf (141) and Lockett (117)

Dolphins: Hill (170) and Waddle (117)

Buccaneers: Evans (127) and Goodwin (142)

 

KC had a >1000 yd tandem 2022 in Hill (159, 1239) and Kelce (134, 1125), and came close 2022 with Kelce (152, 1338 yds) and TikTokBoi (101, 933 yds)

 

Other successful offenses have kind of a "Star and Guyz" model, where their #1 gets well over 1000 yds and then 2 or 3 other guys spread it around.

Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb (156) and then Schultz/Brown/Gallup (89/74/74)

Lions with St Brown (146) and then Raymond/Chark/Reynolds (70/64/59)

Vikings with Jefferson (184) and then Thielen/Osborn/Hockinson (107/90/86)

Jaguars with Kirk (133) and then Zay Jones/Engram/Marvin Jones (121/98/81)

 

The Chargers were a "third hand" because their top receiver by targets was their RB Eckeler.  They didn't have a receiver with >1000 yds but instead had 6 WR with more than 500 yds, making them the #3 passing offense for yards. 

 

The teams which have two 1000 yd guys, have 2 guys with over 100 targets and sometimes distribute the targets pretty equally.

 

Teams which are more a "star and guys" offense, seem to have 1 guy getting >150 targets and everyone else <100 (Zay Jones on the Jags and Thielen on the Vikes exceptions where their targets exceeded their yardage production)

 

My point is that there are different ways to run an offense, and I'm not sure what the Bills are really trying to do.  They kind of seemed bi-polar.

 

The Bills have Diggs (154 targets, 1429 yds) then Davis (93/836), Knox (65/517) and McKenzie (65/423). 

If they're trying to follow a "two top guys" model, then sure, Davis didn't get enough targets and he didn't catch enough of them.

 

On the other hand, if they're trying to follow a "Star and Guyz" model where they spread it around, then the problem might not be Davis not having enough targets/yards; the problem might be not getting enough targets and yards out of Knox and McKenzie. 

 

In the latter case, the solution isn't to get a 1B or a better #2 WR to supplant Davis, the solution is to get better production at TE and from #3/#4.

 

Where I say the Bills seemed kind of bipolar, is that I felt Allen consistently tried to force the ball in to Davis when he was double-covered as though determined to make him a #1B or top #2 WR.  But then we'd get to the press conferences and Dorsey would say things about being a better offense when we're spreading the ball around more and Allen would say stuff about needing to find open guys and get them the ball more and spread it around.

 

Anyway @Shaw66, this harkens back to where you said that the Bills don't need a #1B receiver because KC didn't even have a #1A WR and won the Superbowl.  And while I still hold to it that KC, in fact, had a top receiver last year - his position is just TE not WR - in that discussion I don't think I stepped back enough to Ack what may have been your underlying point that there ARE top offenses which don't have a 1A and 1B WR, and that the Eagles, Bengals, Seahawks, Dolphins (and maybe Chiefs) are not the only way to run a top offense.

 

For reference, the top offense on points scored last season were Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Bills, Lions, 49ers, Vikings, Bengals, Seahawks, and Jaguars

Top passing offenses were Chiefs, Bucs, Chargers, Dolphins, Vikes, Lions, Bengals, Bills, Eagles, Jaguars. 

I omitted the 49ers from the discussion because of their QB situation - too hard to tell what they were trying to do

 

But anyway, half of the top scoring offenses last season didn't have two >1000 yd receivers and same is true of 4/10 top passing offenses.

 

 

 

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

The thing about Gabe that pisses me off is that all off season they showed him working with the JUGS machine trying to improve his craft and still the drops

[KingBoots8]

The Bills don’t. Bills fans do.

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, KingBoots8 said:

The Bills don’t. Bills fans do.

This is a whole lot of silliness here. 

 

Do the Fans overreact more to the bad then the good? Absolutely. 

 

BUT!

 

The Criticism of Davis has been more then fair.. There is a reason why they tried bringing 2 old bears back at the end of the season. He was not producing.

[CoudyBills]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:50 AM, JaCrispy said:

It’s not that Gabe doesn’t produce…It’s that, given all his opportunities and his limited skill set, he under produces imo…

There is a legitimate reason for the growing buzz around the lack of skill position players beyond Diggs.

[Dopey]

I think a lot of people here fell for the idea that, based off of his 4td playoff game the year before, he was going to  take it to another level this past season. Don’t understand the negativity. For the price(4yr $3.9m) and being a mid 4th round pick, he’s pretty productive. I also think he’s going to be a lot better this coming season. 

[Mcg]

He had every opportunity to be the 2 he crashed and burned 

[BillsFanForever19]

I don't think the Bills underappreciate Gabe Davis. But the fans most definitely do. 

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't get another outside WR at his level. But that's just out of necessity bc we can't be in a situation like we were last season where he or Diggs get banged up and we're trotting out Jake Kumerow regularly.

 

He underperformed last season. But he also started the year with an Ankle Sprain that he pushed through and could have affected his production and focus.

 

We should add more at the position. But the people who say we should trade him, outright replace him, or that he's completely incapable of being a #2 are misguided to this point.

Edited March 26, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[ngbills]

He is not a #2. He is a 3-5 WR. He can have a big play here and there but is not a reliable every-down target. Too many drops, not enough ability to get open. Send him deep occasionally or a quick post but that's it. 

 

Lok at the number. He has 11 games with 1 or less passes in this offense. He only has a handful of games with even 5 catches. Compare that with Higgins or other teams #2. Its night and day. 

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin

The drops can not continue or he will be gone.

Book it 

 

Reminds you of Kelvin Benjamin?  Seriously?  Because there is not one little thing about Gabe Davis that reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin at all.

Well, they're both WR and they're both Black, one plays for the Bills now and one used to play for the Bills once upon a time. 

 

But other than that?

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I think a lot of people here fell for the idea that, based off of his 4td playoff game the year before, he was going to  take it to another level this past season.

 

I think there's some of that.

 

In 2021, Davis played 571 snaps and caught 35 receptions for 549 yds

In 2022, Davis played 926 snaps. Scaling by number of snaps, we'd predict 57 receptions for 890 yds.

 

He actually had 48 receptions for 836 yds, so he fell off from (or under-performed) a scaled expectation by 9 receptions and 54 yds.

 

But I think people were expecting him to improve at least a little bit, not to fall off, and most of all to improve his 7.9% drop % of 2021 instead of having it increase to 9.7%.

 

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I also think he’s going to be a lot better this coming season. 

 

Why?  How is that different from expecting him to take it to the next level last season?

[Don Otreply]

In hind sight, Concerning Gabe Davis, I have settled on the idea that Gabe’s ankle was not right throughout a big portion of the season, combining that with Josh’s elbow injury, and some poor pass decision making on his part, that I will just have to accept it was a down season for both of them, and I will now wait with upbeat anticipation for the draft and preseason to happen, and hope for the very best for an exciting season with a championship victory to cap it off.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I’m to damn tired to be all upset about it anymore, 😂

 

 

[gobills404]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

It’s because fans (I’m guilty of it too) want a loaded WR room, and in a loaded WR room he would be the WR 3/4.