In light of Beane’s weak drafting maybe he should move up in the early rounds.

[Nextmanup]

4 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

This may increase his percentage of success in finding better talent, hopefully it takes more risk out of his selections. The only thing left for acquiring better talent this year seems to be the draft. Right now finding quality of player is the biggest challenge facing McBeane during their tenure imo.

First off, never move up, move down.  More picks are better than a higher pick.

Second of all, moving up assumes these teams have perfect knowledge of the talent pool out there, and have accurately ranked players, such that in order to get good players, you MUST pick early.

That's simply not true.  There are classic, historic mistakes made all over the place in every draft.

 

We don't need to trade up.  We need to figure out how to find and assess true talent, regardless of where frigging Mel Kiper ranks it.

 

 

3 hours ago, H2o said:

They need all of their early/mid round picks this year. They also need to hit on at least 4 of them imo, especially two on the OL and a replacement for either Poyer or Edmunds. 

Agreed and if we look at the evidence and history, what are the odds of this playing out?

 

You see why I am pretty confident we'll regress somewhat next season.  The question is how much.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by Nextmanup

[without a drought]

Once again, talking about moving up or down in the draft or which position to take with certain picks is ridiculous without knowing who is available. 

[H2o]

13 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Agreed and if we look at the evidence and history, what are the odds of this playing out?

 

You see why I am pretty confident we'll regress somewhat next season.  The question is how much.

I understand the skepticism, but I think we'll have a better idea once we see how they navigate the Salary Cap and what is first done in FA. Hoping they draft the highest ranked players that are actually needs for the team in 2023. The last few it's been the random jags while claiming they were the "highest on our board" mess. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He did. And that guy was a first team all pro.

 

No. Beane didn't draft White. Beane drafted Taron in the 4th and Kaiir in the 1st. His other defensive bacm picks are day 3. 

 

The Bills have NOT overprioritised DBs under this regime. The evidence is very clear. 

You don't need 2 1st round corners for a zone defense. Over-prioritized.

 

A lot of good it did us against Cincinnati.

 

I wonder what Josh Allen could do with WRs like that?

 

Na, let's have 2 of 3 starting WRs be dudes who can't catch while we burn 2nds and 3rds on defensive backups.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

First off, never move up, move down.  More picks are better than a higher pick.

Second of all, moving up assumes these teams have perfect knowledge of the talent pool out there, and have accurately ranked players, such that in order to get good players, you MUST pick early.

That's simply not true.  There are classic, historic mistakes made all over the place in every draft.

 

We don't need to trade up.  We need to figure out how to find and assess true talent, regardless of where frigging Mel Kiper ranks it.

 

 

Agreed and if we look at the evidence and history, what are the odds of this playing out?

 

You see why I am pretty confident we'll regress somewhat next season.  The question is how much.

 

 

 

I think the next trade up mantra is old fashioned personally. My view is never trade up for a player in the same tier of prospect. A trade like the Saints made last year where they were stuck in the no man's land of prospects and they got up for a top tier receiver in Olave... I think that is a good trade.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

You don't need 2 1st round corners for a zone defense. Over-prioritized.

 

A lot of good it did us against Cincinnati.

 

I wonder what Josh Allen could do with WRs like that?

 

Na, let's have 2 of 3 starting WRs be dudes who can't catch while we burn 2nds and 3rds on defensive backups.

 

I agree you don't need two 1st round zone corners. The problem was they had ignored the position since drafting Tre. No outside corner between 2018 and 2021 before round 6. That was a chronic UNDER investment in the position. Then when Tre did his ACL they were between a rock and a hard place. They had Dane Jackson, a 7th rounder with less than a year's starting experience and basically nothing else. They forced themselves into a spot where they kind of forced a pick. 

 

That said, Elam is a man corner. I presume part of the thought process was to allow them to be more aggressive outside. Then their safeties were decimated by injury and they backed off that. 

 

I am not disagreeing that they have also chronically UNDER invested in wide receivers. You will get no argument from me there. But it hasn't been to take defensive backs. It has been to spend resource after resource on the defensive line. Between 2018 and 2021 they spent 5 of their original 12 day 1 and 2 picks on defensive linemen. And as of yet the one that hit FA they let walk and none of the other 4 are guaranteed 2nd contracts. 

 

I have no problem people pointing out some of the flaws in the draft strategy. But let's stick to the facts.

[LEBills]

For me it means Beane should either trade picks away for proven veterans like the Rams did (or like he did with Diggs) or trade back and acquire more draft picks to take more swings on hitting on a difference maker and because our team is getting very expensive now and we need a lot of cheap labor

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree you don't need two 1st round zone corners. The problem was they had ignored the position since drafting Tre. No outside corner between 2018 and 2021 before round 6. That was a chronic UNDER investment in the position. Then when Tre did his ACL they were between a rock and a hard place. They had Dane Jackson, a 7th rounder with less than a year's starting experience and basically nothing else. They forced themselves into a spot where they kind of forced a pick. 

 

That said, Elam is a man corner. I presume part of the thought process was to allow them to be more aggressive outside. Then their safeties were decimated by injury and they backed off that. 

 

I am not disagreeing that they have also chronically UNDER invested in wide receivers. You will get no argument from me there. But it hasn't been to take defensive backs. It has been to spend resource after resource on the defensive line. Between 2018 and 2021 they spent 5 of their original 12 day 1 and 2 picks on defensive linemen. And as of yet the one that hit FA they let walk and none of the other 4 are guaranteed 2nd contracts. 

 

I have no problem people pointing out some of the flaws in the draft strategy. But let's stick to the facts.

Usually it has been the defensive line but last year's 1st was Kaiir Elam.

 

The Bills have had multiple elite defenses with Levi Wallace starting at corner. They have Levi Wallace copies now in Dane Jackson and Christian Benford.

 

They are always going to be a primarily zone defense under Derm and Frazier.

 

The upside, the ceiling of your 1st rounder being to go from 30% man to 38% man is a horrible waste of resources.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

Usually it has been the defensive line but last year's 1st was Kaiir Elam.

 

The Bills have had multiple elite defenses with Levi Wallace starting at corner. They have Levi Wallace copies now in Dane Jackson and Christian Benford.

 

They are always going to be a primarily zone defense under Derm and Frazier.

 

The upside, the ceiling of your 1st rounder being to go from 30% man to 38% man is a horrible waste of resources.

 

Multiple elite defenses that included Tre White. That is the difference. They under valued corner for years and when White went down it forced them into a position where they had to draft a corner early.

[machine gun kelly]

There is always a way to manage the cap if you have the will.  The cap is exploding not necessarily this year but will catch up next year to pre Covid expectations.  
 

We’re up to $226 mil which is behind the expected increases.  Next year there has been predictions with the new tv and Amazon contracts as well as European $ up to $256 mil., then will hit $300 mil in the coming years.

 

The new CBA coming at the end of the decade will score us whether you like it or not an 18th game.

 

The point is Allen restructuring salary to signing bonus would get us healthily under the cap.  If they go in on Diggs and Dawkins, we’d be fine and could get one free agent of note.  
 

If the talent is there I can see a world where Beane moves up and we go from 6 draft pics to 4.

 

Im not saying he will, but he can do it if he believes he has the talent in hand.
 

We definitely need a talented WR and two Guards.  It’s also a deep TE class.

 

The crappy thing is not having Avon for probably 2/3 of the active season maybe making it back by November.

 

My suggestion to newer guys on the board, not the Wiley veteran TBDers, to use Jimmy Johnson or other draft value charts and add up the points about suggestions moving up or down.

 

im not there yet as I’d like to see what happens in FA.  Once we get past the first wave, we’ll have a better idea of options Beane has for the draft.

 

This narrative of Beane being a poor drafter is not true.  It’s the business season now and I’ll drag up the Polian comments as it’s still salient to this conversation.  Most people on this board who are old enough to remember Polians drafts here and Carolina and Indy knows he was a master at the craft.

 

Hes said year after year on NFLR late hits on Wed nights his lifetime hit rate for drafting is 57%.
 
57%!  Put that in context when thinking of Beane.  If you look at Ron Wolf along with Polian, both wearing Gold Jackets,  I might add, and Beane just won two years ago GM of the year.  Given his peers clearly voted him as the best GM in that year, he’s not a poor drafter.

[ColoradoBills]

Beane is in a pretty good spot at 27 for a team who has a 1st round grade in a position of non-need for the Bills to trade back

and pick up a late 3rd or early 4th.  Other than that, I think he should wait for the draft to come to him.

 

Then again, if Torrence is as good as some pundits say and can anchor the RG position (which has been a revolving door for years),

I'd go that route if he is still available.  I'm not a huge college fan so don't criticize my internet scouting too much!  LOL.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He has drafted literally 2 corners in the first 4 rounds in his FIVE drafts as Bills GM which is waaaaaayyyy below the league average. Taron Johnson and Kaiir Elam.

 

Don’t let those pesky facts get in the way of a tired narrative! 

 

Beane can’t draft, and McD and his coordinators can’t coach. It must be our special teams that makes us a Super Bowl favorite….AGAIN. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Multiple elite defenses that included Tre White. That is the difference. They under valued corner for years and when White went down it forced them into a position where they had to draft a corner early.

So Tre White will miss a few months...panic? Mortgage the future and make a poor decision for your roster? You ignore huge needs on offense because you have a short-term injury? Now Tre White is back and we have a waste of resources and poor talent around Josh Allen.

 

Really WR should have been addressed prior to that draft though, I'll give you that. But Kaiir Elam was a luxury pick on a roster that wasn't as good as they thought it was.

 

[Augie]

I think I’m going to look for Yolo……

[uticaclub]

2 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I’m starting to think it might be time to see if there’s a 3 Bills Drive, you’d think this team went 4-14 this year. 
 

Their record is even more impressive seeing Beane can’t draft, the FA signings are all busts, coaches are clueless, and Allen regressed.

Which shows how good Allen is. This is a bottom 5 roster without Josh.

24 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

There is always a way to manage the cap if you have the will.  The cap is exploding not necessarily this year but will catch up next year to pre Covid expectations.  
 

We’re up to $226 mil which is behind the expected increases.  Next year there has been predictions with the new tv and Amazon contracts as well as European $ up to $256 mil., then will hit $300 mil in the coming years.

 

The new CBA coming at the end of the decade will score us whether you like it or not an 18th game.

 

The point is Allen restructuring salary to signing bonus would get us healthily under the cap.  If they go in on Diggs and Dawkins, we’d be fine and could get one free agent of note.  
 

If the talent is there I can see a world where Beane moves up and we go from 6 draft pics to 4.

 

Im not saying he will, but he can do it if he believes he has the talent in hand.
 

We definitely need a talented WR and two Guards.  It’s also a deep TE class.

 

The crappy thing is not having Avon for probably 2/3 of the active season maybe making it back by November.

 

My suggestion to newer guys on the board, not the Wiley veteran TBDers, to use Jimmy Johnson or other draft value charts and add up the points about suggestions moving up or down.

 

im not there yet as I’d like to see what happens in FA.  Once we get past the first wave, we’ll have a better idea of options Beane has for the draft.

 

This narrative of Beane being a poor drafter is not true.  It’s the business season now and I’ll drag up the Polian comments as it’s still salient to this conversation.  Most people on this board who are old enough to remember Polians drafts here and Carolina and Indy knows he was a master at the craft.

 

Hes said year after year on NFLR late hits on Wed nights his lifetime hit rate for drafting is 57%.
 
57%!  Put that in context when thinking of Beane.  If you look at Ron Wolf along with Polian, both wearing Gold Jackets,  I might add, and Beane just won two years ago GM of the year.  Given his peers clearly voted him as the best GM in that year, he’s not a poor drafter.

Beane has hit way less than 57% on FA and draft picks. He is hitting way below the mendoza line

[wppete]

I think if Beane screws this draft also he should be fired. 

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, wppete said:

I think if Beane screws this draft also he should be fired. 

 

Well, it takes 2-3 years to evaluate a draft so.....................................?

[wppete]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Well, it takes 2-3 years to evaluate a draft so.....................................?

Get rid of him. He’s a failure. No more chances, produce or go. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

4 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

just get out of the second round since we never hit on anyone there. See if we can’t get 10 round 5 picks for our 2nd round pick. 

Right on in a way. Just trade our second rounder for a proven player or use it to trade up for a true blue chip player if one is dropping to the mid/late teens. Will just have to be a little more active in free agency than expected in that scenario. Let me add the trading up part would probably only be for a LT, WR, or a pass rusher( Von Miller's successor/protege).

Edited February 19, 2023 by TheBeaneBandit

[Success]

The drafting has been average at worst.  Not that it's anything to brag about - but it hasn't been bad or weak.

 

But, if anyone thinks it HAS been weak - it would make more sense to trade down, not up. The more picks you have, the better the chances.