Rate all of Beane's draft picks

[metbill]

The worst part of Beanes draft's seems to be not really any of his picks are NFL ready so we have to wait until they are on their second(big money) contract to see if they will perform at an NFL level.  When is he going to draft some first and second round players that come into the league ready to shine?  Groot is a perfect example, he will be peaking right about the time he gets his big money deal, basically we trained him up to leave or stick the Bills with another high dollar contract with not a lot to justify it.  OI understand he was a project pick, but we needed a stud at the time.  We are now in cap hell again and are quite a few pieces away from a solid threat to win it all.  The fact that we have to debate any first or second round picks talent tells you he missed.

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, metbill said:

The worst part of Beanes draft's seems to be not really any of his picks are NFL ready so we have to wait until they are on their second(big money) contract to see if they will perform at an NFL level.  When is he going to draft some first and second round players that come into the league ready to shine?  Groot is a perfect example, he will be peaking right about the time he gets his big money deal, basically we trained him up to leave or stick the Bills with another high dollar contract with not a lot to justify it.  OI understand he was a project pick, but we needed a stud at the time.  We are now in cap hell again and are quite a few pieces away from a solid threat to win it all.  The fact that we have to debate any first or second round picks talent tells you he missed.

Rousseau is more a product of where he was drafted.  It’s rare for a late RD1 pass rusher to be elite in his first few years.  He actually had 1 more sack than Jaelen Phillips this past year, in 4 less games.  Oweh with 5 less sacks in 4 more games. 
 

Elam’s handling was an absolute joke.  He is our most talented CB, yet they played games with him all year. 
 

Beane, outside Oliver, has been good in RD1.  
 

Day 2 has been a disaster. 
 

Day 3, again, he’s good, but it’s relative .. good on Day 3 is why we have decent depth.   Striking out on Day 2 is why we lack game changers compared to CIN and KC. 
 

Even worse is that the Day 2 misses are in the trenches.  Something they constantly preach.  
 

Edited February 18, 2023 by SCBills

[buffblue]

13 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Rousseau is definitely not average.

Agreed, but he also hasn't really flashed the immense potential upside of a game changing player. For once I would like the Bills to draft an edge rusher with the actual speed to threaten the corner. Sans Miller, even old man Jerry Hughes is better than what is on our roster in terms of putting immediate heat on the qb

[Nephilim17]

12 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Here is the problem with Beane and the Bills front office and coaching. They haven’t done a good enough job finding stars in Round 1 and 2.  Period.  
 

Outside of Allen and Edmunds (who they both gave up picks to trade up for), these are their selections:

 

R1: 

Ed Oliver (2018)

Greg Rosseau (2021)

Kalir Elam (2022)

 

R2:

Cody Ford (2019)

AJ Epinesa (2020)

Boogie Basham (2021)

James Cook (2022)

 

We still don’t know about players like Elam and Cook.  I think Rosseau still has the potential to be a good DE though I don’t think he will ever be elite.  
 

But the rest of the return from the past 4 years is really bad.  You can’t draft JAG players high, which is what the Bills have done for the most part - especially on the DL. 

Round 1: Yes, for a top-10 pick, Oliver is disappointing. Not bad, but not anywhere near the consistent top-level play you expect for the pick.

But... Rosseau could be a 10-12 sack player, and that's more than acceptable for his draft position, bottom 1st round. And he's good against the run and has upside with a short college career. Right now that pick is good and could get better.

Elam had a decent year and I'd say that's a B grade, again, picking the bottom of the 1st round. Don't just say a player is a 1st-round player; the expectations for 9th overall and 23rd overall are far different.

 

Round 2: Pretty bad. Epinesa fell for a reason and the Bills take him and then try to change him. Wrong on both counts. Basham was redundant and the failure is as well. However, Cook looks like he could be a solid pick if he continues his trajectory.

So round one looks like two out of three successes and round two looks like one out of three. Not great but very mediocre and we need to do better if we're paying Allen $40 million a year.

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, Einstein said:

Good post. I struggled the most with Knox. I can see an arguement for him being better than 'average' but least year wasn't kind to the "knox is going to be elite" argument outside of a few amazing plays. 

 

I mean he had the 4th highest separation rate among qualifying players in the entire league and caught 73% of his passes. He can't throw it to himself. 

 

Maybe elite is a stretch but Dawson Knox is a top 10 tight end with the potential in a system that uses him properly to be a top 5 guy. His relative middle of the road production is on Josh Allen and Ken Dorsey.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Round 1: Yes, for a top-10 pick, Oliver is disappointing. Not bad, but not anywhere near the consistent top-level play you expect for the pick.

But... Rosseau could be a 10-12 sack player, and that's more than acceptable for his draft position, bottom 1st round. And he's good against the run and has upside with a short college career. Right now that pick is good and could get better.

Elam had a decent year and I'd say that's a B grade, again, picking the bottom of the 1st round. Don't just say a player is a 1st-round player; the expectations for 9th overall and 23rd overall are far different.

 

Round 2: Pretty bad. Epinesa fell for a reason and the Bills take him and then try to change him. Wrong on both counts. Basham was redundant and the failure is as well. However, Cook looks like he could be a solid pick if he continues his trajectory.

So round one looks like two out of three successes and round two looks like one out of three. Not great but very mediocre and we need to do better if we're paying Allen $40 million a year.

Part of the problem with evaluating a draft is that you need atleast 3 seasons to make a determinations.  That’s why Elam and Cook are still hard to assess after just 1 season.

 

I’d agree that Rosseau could end up being a solid pick but he has yet to see a 10-12 sack season.  
 

These might be examples of B grades which is solid but after 5 season of drafting.  You need to find atleast one A with these premium picks in the draft and and Beane & co have not done that 

[John from Riverside]

An average wide receiver gets 900 yards a year
 

Really?

 

Do you have to set a baseline for how you’re reading these players if they are in the NFL and if they are starting they deserve higher ratings if they are in another team and they are starting they deserve higher ratings

[JGMcD2]

16 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Here is the problem with Beane and the Bills front office and coaching. They haven’t done a good enough job finding stars in Round 1 and 2.  Period.  
 

Outside of Allen and Edmunds (who they both gave up picks to trade up for), these are their selections:

 

R1: 

Ed Oliver (2018)

Greg Rosseau (2021)

Kalir Elam (2022)

 

R2:

Cody Ford (2019)

AJ Epinesa (2020)

Boogie Basham (2021)

James Cook (2022)

 

We still don’t know about players like Elam and Cook.  I think Rosseau still has the potential to be a good DE though I don’t think he will ever be elite.  
 

But the rest of the return from the past 4 years is really bad.  You can’t draft JAG players high, which is what the Bills have done for the most part - especially on the DL. 

 

Since Beane took over drafting in 2018:

• 61 players who have entered league have been named to at least one All-Pro team
• Remove Special Teams players from that group then the number drops to 43 players named to at least one All-Pro team
• Account for only premium positions (QB, WR, T, DE, CB) and the numbers drops to 22 players named to at least one All-Pro team
  • QB - 3
  • WR - 7
  • T - 3
  • DE - 3
  • CB - 6
     
• 3 teams have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Atlanta - Calvin Ridley (2018) and AJ Terrell (2021)
  • Dallas - Micah Parsons (2021), Trevon Diggs (2020) and CeeDee Lamb (2020)
  • San Francisco - Deebo Samuel (2019) and Nick Bosa (2019)
     
• 2 GMs have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Dallas - Jerry Jones (Will McClay)
  • San Francisco - John Lynch
    • Thomas Dimitroff drafted Calvin Ridley and Terry Fontenot drafted AJ Terrell
       
• Based on the Bills draft position from 2018 - 2022 Brandon Beane had the opportunity to select the following players without sacrificing acquiring another All-Pro Player at a premium position:
   
  • Josh Allen (HE DID!)
  • DK Metcalf (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford)
  • Calvin Ridley (Over Tremaine Edmunds) - Suspended from NFL
  • Jaire Alexander (Over Tremaine Edmunds)
  • Deebo Samuel (Over Ed Oliver)
  • Maxx Crosby (Over Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox)
  • J.C. Jackson (Entire 2018 Draft excluding Josh Allen)
  • A.J. Brown (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) - Traded away before becoming an All-Pro w/ Tennessee 

 

Let's not pretend like these premium players grow on trees and are easy to identify. 2/3 of them were 1st round picks that we didn't even have a chance to acquire, and the group listed above had an ADP of the 50th pick... meaning everyone passed on them at least once... including other top tier GMs. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Since Beane took over drafting in 2018:

• 61 players who have entered league have been named to at least one All-Pro team
• Remove Special Teams players from that group then the number drops to 43 players named to at least one All-Pro team
• Account for only premium positions (QB, WR, T, DE, CB) and the numbers drops to 22 players named to at least one All-Pro team
  • QB - 3
  • WR - 7
  • T - 3
  • DE - 3
  • CB - 6
     
• 3 teams have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Atlanta - Calvin Ridley (2018) and AJ Terrell (2021)
  • Dallas - Micah Parsons (2021), Trevon Diggs (2020) and CeeDee Lamb (2020)
  • San Francisco - Deebo Samuel (2019) and Nick Bosa (2019)
     
• 2 GMs have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018
  • Dallas - Jerry Jones (Will McClay)
  • San Francisco - John Lynch
    • Thomas Dimitroff drafted Calvin Ridley and Terry Fontenot drafted AJ Terrell
       
• Based on the Bills draft position from 2018 - 2022 Brandon Beane had the opportunity to select the following players without sacrificing acquiring another All-Pro Player at a premium position:
   
  • Josh Allen (HE DID!)
  • DK Metcalf (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford)
  • Calvin Ridley (Over Tremaine Edmunds) - Suspended from NFL
  • Jaire Alexander (Over Tremaine Edmunds)
  • Deebo Samuel (Over Ed Oliver)
  • Maxx Crosby (Over Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox)
  • J.C. Jackson (Entire 2018 Draft excluding Josh Allen)
  • A.J. Brown (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) - Traded away before becoming an All-Pro w/ Tennessee 

 

Let's not pretend like these premium players grow on trees and are easy to identify. 2/3 of them were 1st round picks that we didn't even have a chance to acquire, and the group listed above had an ADP of the 50th pick... meaning everyone passed on them at least once... including other top tier GMs. 

 

Good post. Like the info. What do the numbers look like if you include the non-premium positions (but still excluding STs)?

 

I think Dallas and San Fran being there should be no surprise. They would be two of the first names on my list without crunching the numbers.

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good post. Like the info. What do the numbers look like if you include the non-premium positions (but still excluding STs)?

 

I think Dallas and San Fran being there should be no surprise. They would be two of the first names on my list without crunching the numbers.

To be clear I'm including AP All-Pro 1st and Second Team. 

 

If you look at the entire group excluding Special Teams (43 Players)

 

• 4 Teams have 3+ Players
  • 50% made the playoffs in 2022
    • DAL and SFO
       
• 12 Teams have 2+ Players
  • 58% made the playoffs in 2022
    • DAL, SFO, BAL, BUF, CIN, LAC, NYG
       
• 9 Teams have 1 Player
  • 56% made the playoffs in 2022
    • KAN, MIA, MIN, PHI, SEA
       
• 11 Teams have 0 Players
  • 9% made the playoffs in 2022
    • JAX

 

 

Almost everyone is with their original drafting teams:

• Calvin Ridley (Suspended and Traded ATL to JAX)
• Wyatt Teller (Traded BUF to CLE)
• Roquan Smith (Traded CHI to BAL)
• Minkah Fitzpatrick (Traded MIA to PIT)
• JC Jackson (Signed as FA LAC to NWE)
• AJ Brown (Traded TEN to PHI)

 

I guess the point here... Beane is in the upper third of the league finding "Stars" (yes, the Teller trade sucks but we're talking about drafting and that's it). He's also been VERY good at finding those average to above average starters... at a rate that puts him in the top 2-3 in the league. He's not a bad drafter the facts don't support that - he's somewhere in the Top 5 when you consider everything (DAL, SFO, KC, IND, BUF)

Edited February 18, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 hours ago, SCBills said:

Rousseau is more a product of where he was drafted.  It’s rare for a late RD1 pass rusher to be elite in his first few years.  He actually had 1 more sack than Jaelen Phillips this past year, in 4 less games.  Oweh with 5 less sacks in 4 more games. 
 

Elam’s handling was an absolute joke.  He is our most talented CB, yet they played games with him all year. 
 

Beane, outside Oliver, has been good in RD1.  
 

Day 2 has been a disaster. 
 

Day 3, again, he’s good, but it’s relative .. good on Day 3 is why we have decent depth.   Striking out on Day 2 is why we lack game changers compared to CIN and KC. 
 

Even worse is that the Day 2 misses are in the trenches.  Something they constantly preach.  
 

The striking thing to me with Elam was a LATE season press conference where McDermott said something like - the Coaches are still figuring out who Elam is as a person and gauging what they have in him.

 

I thought that was strange. The organization already made that decision Sean…
 

Just get him out there.

 

I don’t know that the Chiefs are amazing at drafting, they had to scab an entire WR group together, pieces of their line are FAs, and their secondary is ok. 

 

But I do agree that they’ve hit on both linebackers in the middle rounds, and Creed H is a big difference.

How good is Karlaftis really? Skyy Moore? 
 

Their FO has shown they understand how to sustain a top level team. 

[Mrbojanglezs]

Looking back Beane has not been a very good drafter and the effects of it are going to start being felt this year

[JohnNord]

39 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The striking thing to me with Elam was a LATE season press conference where McDermott said something like - the Coaches are still figuring out who Elam is as a person and gauging what they have in him.

 

I thought that was strange. The organization already made that decision Sean…
 

Just get him out there.

 

I don’t know that the Chiefs are amazing at drafting, they had to scab an entire WR group together, pieces of their line are FAs, and their secondary is ok. 

 

But I do agree that they’ve hit on both linebackers in the middle rounds, and Creed H is a big difference.

How good is Karlaftis really? Skyy Moore? 
 

Their FO has shown they understand how to sustain a top level team. 

I’m not really blown away by any on Kansas City’s rookies.  They are decent players though I though McDuffie and Watson got beat against Cincy and were the recipients of some good luck.  I really am not not impressed with Bryan Cook.  Karlaftis has shown flashes but not consistency.  Skyy Moore’s numbers aren’t much better Shakir’s.

 

But they all benefitted from playing throughout the year and not riding the bench and by the end of the season they were good enough to be trusted to not screw up.  
 

Beane and McDermott HAVE to change how they draft and play rookies

[Green Lightning]

20 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Knox, among TE's, was 17th in receptions and 14th in yards.

 

With a top 3 QB.

 

That's kind of the definition of average.

 

 

That's on the OC and not the player. They don't scheme for him now and much of the time he has to stay in and block because our OL sucks.

[Green Lightning]

17 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Rousseau's last 7 games.  3 sacks, 3 TFL.  In his 2 playoff games he got 0/0.  Sorry but that doesn't encourage me.  Beane might have swung and missed on all 3 DE's.  

Few DEs do it alone. We got zero pressure from the interior line and other DE. Rousseau has lots upside but can't do it alone.  Bashem and Epenesa are back ups. Oliver would be effective playing next to Ted Washington in his prime, but average otherwise. Rousseau is the last of our issues on the DL.

[Dopey]

You ask TBD to rate all of his picks, yet you rate less than half of the picks!?! 🤪

[Nextmanup]

21 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Rousseau is definitely not average.

Sometimes.

 

Way too inconsistent to be regarded as a valuable player IMO.

 

 

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, Dopey said:

You ask TBD to rate all of his picks, yet you rate less than half of the picks!?! 🤪

 

To me, if the player is gone, the pick is irrelevant. The point of drafting is to help improve your team - not other teams.

[JGMcD2]

22 hours ago, Einstein said:

Players in red are gone or are presumed to be gone (example: Edmunds is testing free agency and is expected to get way more than the Bills can pay). Also didn't include 2022 picks since its too early to rate them.

 

How do you rate the rest of the draft picks? Here are my ratings:

 

2018

 

Allen - elite

Edmunds 

Phillips

Teller 

Mccloud 

T Johnson - good

Proehl 

 

2019

 

Oliver - average

Ford 

Singletary 

Knox - average

Joseph 

J Johnson - bad

D Johnson

Sweeney  

 

2020

 

Epenesa - backup quality

Moss

Davis - average

Fromm

Bass - good

Hodgins

D Jackson - average (I'm not as down on Dane as some of you)

 

2021

 

Rousseau - average

Basham - backup quality

Brown - backup quality

Doyle - backup

Stevenson

Hamlin - backup quality

Wildgoose

Anderson

What are the ratings based on? Personal feelings?

[Einstein]

33 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

That's on the OC and not the player. They don't scheme for him now and much of the time he has to stay in and block because our OL sucks.

 

Except it happened with Daboll too. In 2021, Knox was 18th among TE’s in receptions and 15th in yards.

 

His numbers were very similar under Daboll as they are under Dorsey.