Frazier: The hard FACTS on why many of us want a change.

[Jim]

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

They say the NFL is a copycat league yet I've never seen Frazier attempt to copy anything another team used to shutdown an offensively potent team. 

 

There it is.

 

We go into the Dolphins game with them skidding after SF and LA basically put the breaks on them. Do we use any of what those guys did? Nah.

 

Then the Patriots and the Ravens give the Bengals fits. The Bengals don't have a great game against either. So when its time to play them in the biggest game of the season, do we decide to use anything they did. Now way, that's not happening! Leslie knows better than those other guys.

[Orlando Tim]

I will admit to be torn about Leslie because I think he has made a great defense overall but falls down in the small moments. On a 3rd and 5 you can't have DBs all 11 yards off the line of scrimmage, I don't care how good the other WR is. I think Leslie might actually be a better head coach now than a coordinator, his big picture is strong but his tweaks are lacking. 

[TheWeatherMan]

On 2/8/2023 at 8:09 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I know Frazier is being talked about in different threads across the board.  But where I am taken back is the number of people making excuses for Frazier or absolving him of any responsibility or blame...or even mocking those who think a change is needed.

 

There is this one big thing that is commonly getting overlooked, and it's IMHO undeniable evidence that there is fundamental flaw in Frazier's defense vs the teams who have been in our way to get to the SB.

 

The past 3 years, our defense was dominated in the 3 playoff losses...but also, In all 3 seasons, those very same offenses that dominated our defense were held in check or shut down literally the following week by their next opponent who mostly had much lower ranked defenses than us, and ALL 3 lost their next game.  

 

The big difference was clearly game plan and play calling.  Bills in 2 of those years had by far the better defense during the season, yet fared terrible in comparison.

 

Bills defensive rankings last 3 years:

• 2020 - 15th (lost to Chiefs)
• 2021 - 1st (lost to Chiefs)
• 2022 - 2nd (lost to Bengals)
• COMBINED:  107 points, 1403 yards those offenses scored on us.

 

Defensive rankings of the teams that beat the team that beat us the very next week:

• 2020 - Bucs 8th (beat Chiefs)
• 2021 - Bengals 16th (beat Chiefs)
• 2022 - Cheifs 17th (beat Bengals)
• COMBINED:  53 points, 1034 yards those same offenses scored in their very next game (all losses) after beating us.

 

So our defense combined to give up twice as many points and almost 40% more yards than what those same offenses managed to do against their next opponent the very next week (in which they lost all 3 times).  And mostly against statistically inferior defenses to our own. 

 

All 3 seasons, our defense was dominated by the offenses we faced in our postseason loss:  Chiefs, Chiefs, and Bengals.  All 3 would go on to lose the very NEXT week with their offenses being shutdown or held in check: 

 

• 2020 - AFC Championship Game - Bills @ KC:  Our defense is helpless against the Chiefs who have their way offensively against us.  Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.  Chiefs win the game with ease because our offense also showed poorly.
  • Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.
• 2021 - AFC Divisional Round - Bills @ KC:  Our #1 ranked defense gives up 42 points, including 17 points in the final 2 min of the game and OT that included the 13 second debacle before completely laying down in OT.  Chiefs win the game.
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  
• 2022 - AFC Divisional Round - Cincy @ Bills:  Finally a home game, and despite bad weather (allegedly some sort of "competitive advantage" for the BIlls) and Cincy missing THREE starters on the OL (their weakest unit the past seasons even when healthy), our #2 ranked defense let the Cincy offense dominate the LOS and the Bengals got very little resistance from the Bills defense.  Bengals win.  
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  In a rematch of the previous season, Chiefs 17th ranked defense holds the Bengals offense in check and win a close game giving up only 20 points.

 

That is pretty astounding to look at and a strong indicator of just how poor our game-plan and play calling was in those games.  Especially the last 2 years when we had the #1 and #2 Defense entering the postseason respectively.  Even with the 15th ranked D in 2020, that is NO EXCUSE when you see defenses ranked 16th and 17th still perform well in 2021 and 2022 against similar potent offenses.  

 

And forget the stats, just watch all 6 of these games...the evidence and countless examples were right there on the screen, and it's clear as day why those other defenses had more success than our own.  

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  I just don't know how anyone can overlook how defenses that were mediocre all season fare so much better against the same offenses that Fraziers #1 and #2 ranked defenses perform so badly against.  

 

Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT lay-down last year where we gave up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of that game and OT.  I mean Kelce utterly schooled Frazier on national TV in those 13 seconds mocking his defense while mic'd up and said hit me in the seem if they are just gonna play it like that...which they did, and which Mahomes and Kelce did with ease like it was 7 on 7 out there.

 

THIS is why many of us want a change.  Not a hot take, not social media influence, not anything other than his continued postseason flops.  

 

 

Don’t just look at the teams we lost too, look at all playoff opponents, it gets worse.  2020 Texans (22 points all in the second half), 2021 Colts (472/24).  Of all the playoff games the last 4 years the defense has had 2 solid showings (Pats 2022, Ravens 2021) while the the others have been DC pink slip worthy including the Dolphins game this year.  Conservatism does not win you football games.  

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Jim said:

 

There it is.

 

We go into the Dolphins game with them skidding after SF and LA basically put the breaks on them. Do we use any of what those guys did? Nah.

 

Then the Patriots and the Ravens give the Bengals fits. The Bengals don't have a great game against either. So when its time to play them in the biggest game of the season, do we decide to use anything they did. Now way, that's not happening! Leslie knows better than those other guys.

 

We had a VERY similar plan vs the Dolphins to the 49ers plan. 

 

The Chargers was a different case. They had a pretty bespoke one-off plan. But the 49ers played a 4 man rush, zone coverage behind and dropped their linebackers into intermediate zones. They used Fred Warner almost exactly as we used Tremaine Edmunds two weeks later. 

[LeGOATski]

I think it's time to move on. Frazier even said before the playoffs that they're not going to change anything and will do what got them there. I think it's a philosophical flaw. In the playoffs, in order to get to the Super Bowl, you have to have that ace up your sleeve.

 

I assume he's on very thin ice in 2023.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

I'm not a fan of Leslie Frazier, haven't been since the hire and I hope they find a replacement for him. They have a replacement right on the roster now in LB Coach Bobby Babich who is being talked about for DC positions, lets see what he has to offer because whatever that scheme is that Frazier put out was not only predictable but we looked lost out there. It's time for some fresh new blood to take over and I hope Babich get's a shot.

[newcam2012]

On 2/8/2023 at 11:09 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

I know Frazier is being talked about in different threads across the board.  But where I am taken back is the number of people making excuses for Frazier or absolving him of any responsibility or blame...or even mocking those who think a change is needed.

 

There is this one big thing that is commonly getting overlooked, and it's IMHO undeniable evidence that there is fundamental flaw in Frazier's defense vs the teams who have been in our way to get to the SB.

 

The past 3 years, our defense was dominated in the 3 playoff losses...but also, In all 3 seasons, those very same offenses that dominated our defense were held in check or shut down literally the following week by their next opponent who mostly had much lower ranked defenses than us, and ALL 3 lost their next game.  

 

The big difference was clearly game plan and play calling.  Bills in 2 of those years had by far the better defense during the season, yet fared terrible in comparison.

 

Bills defensive rankings last 3 years:

• 2020 - 15th (lost to Chiefs)
• 2021 - 1st (lost to Chiefs)
• 2022 - 2nd (lost to Bengals)
• COMBINED:  107 points, 1403 yards those offenses scored on us.

 

Defensive rankings of the teams that beat the team that beat us the very next week:

• 2020 - Bucs 8th (beat Chiefs)
• 2021 - Bengals 16th (beat Chiefs)
• 2022 - Cheifs 17th (beat Bengals)
• COMBINED:  53 points, 1034 yards those same offenses scored in their very next game (all losses) after beating us.

 

So our defense combined to give up twice as many points and almost 40% more yards than what those same offenses managed to do against their next opponent the very next week (in which they lost all 3 times).  And mostly against statistically inferior defenses to our own. 

 

All 3 seasons, our defense was dominated by the offenses we faced in our postseason loss:  Chiefs, Chiefs, and Bengals.  All 3 would go on to lose the very NEXT week with their offenses being shutdown or held in check: 

 

• 2020 - AFC Championship Game - Bills @ KC:  Our defense is helpless against the Chiefs who have their way offensively against us.  Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.  Chiefs win the game with ease because our offense also showed poorly.
  • Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.
• 2021 - AFC Divisional Round - Bills @ KC:  Our #1 ranked defense gives up 42 points, including 17 points in the final 2 min of the game and OT that included the 13 second debacle before completely laying down in OT.  Chiefs win the game.
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  
• 2022 - AFC Divisional Round - Cincy @ Bills:  Finally a home game, and despite bad weather (allegedly some sort of "competitive advantage" for the BIlls) and Cincy missing THREE starters on the OL (their weakest unit the past seasons even when healthy), our #2 ranked defense let the Cincy offense dominate the LOS and the Bengals got very little resistance from the Bills defense.  Bengals win.  
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  In a rematch of the previous season, Chiefs 17th ranked defense holds the Bengals offense in check and win a close game giving up only 20 points.

 

That is pretty astounding to look at and a strong indicator of just how poor our game-plan and play calling was in those games.  Especially the last 2 years when we had the #1 and #2 Defense entering the postseason respectively.  Even with the 15th ranked D in 2020, that is NO EXCUSE when you see defenses ranked 16th and 17th still perform well in 2021 and 2022 against similar potent offenses.  

 

And forget the stats, just watch all 6 of these games...the evidence and countless examples were right there on the screen, and it's clear as day why those other defenses had more success than our own.  

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  I just don't know how anyone can overlook how defenses that were mediocre all season fare so much better against the same offenses that Fraziers #1 and #2 ranked defenses perform so badly against.  

 

Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT lay-down last year where we gave up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of that game and OT.  I mean Kelce utterly schooled Frazier on national TV in those 13 seconds mocking his defense while mic'd up and said hit me in the seem if they are just gonna play it like that...which they did, and which Mahomes and Kelce did with ease like it was 7 on 7 out there.

 

THIS is why many of us want a change.  Not a hot take, not social media influence, not anything other than his continued postseason flops.  

 

 

Very well said, great data to back up your opinion, and very well organized. 

 

I'm not sure how any Bills fan can get on board with Fraizer as the DC. 

 

Food for thought. Do you think it's possible that McD and Beane are holding on to Fraizer so he can be used as a scapegoat when things likely go south? 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 2/8/2023 at 5:47 PM, ExiledInIllinois said:

Or... How about: We are so close right now, let's see if we can make it work before blowing up the whole darn thing.

What are we close to, exactly? We're not beating KC or Cincinnati in the playoffs.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Upside: if McDermott brings Frazier back, it's likely going to accelerate change to next off-season because it WILL result in failure again.

[Mikey152]

It’s hard to take this post, and any other complainer’s post, seriously when they suggest that the Bills play a simple defense. 
 

Their defense is pretty much the opposite of simple. Sure, they don’t have elaborate or flashy blitzes, but their zone system is incredibly complicated and constantly checking into different plays/coverages based on personnel and alignment on offense. Our back 7 are probably the best coached in the whole league.

 

That said…it’s unlikely this defense will just lineup and physically dominate the other team. Their players just aren’t wired like that or built like that.

 

so in the playoffs when it is cold and you have injuries and the best offensive minds…it’s just not a great recipe. It was especially bad this year because the team was a shell of itself both physically and emotionally.

 

I get everyone is upset we lost, and even more so about how we lost…but this board is just sad. I thought Bills fans were better than this.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

On 2/9/2023 at 10:31 PM, Orlando Tim said:

I will admit to be torn about Leslie because I think he has made a great defense overall but falls down in the small moments. On a 3rd and 5 you can't have DBs all 11 yards off the line of scrimmage, I don't care how good the other WR is. I think Leslie might actually be a better head coach now than a coordinator, his big picture is strong but his tweaks are lacking. 

His tweaks are not just lacking, he does not make adjustments during games and has said he doesn’t like doing so. Maybe this new guy they hired is being brought in to help out in that area, 🤞

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

What are we close to, exactly? We're not beating KC or Cincinnati in the playoffs.

Sure the Bills can beat them in playoffs!

 

Let's NOT be negative... 

[Meatloaf63]

On 2/10/2023 at 1:50 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

We had a VERY similar plan vs the Dolphins to the 49ers plan. 

 

The Chargers was a different case. They had a pretty bespoke one-off plan. But the 49ers played a 4 man rush, zone coverage behind and dropped their linebackers into intermediate zones. They used Fred Warner almost exactly as we used Tremaine Edmunds two weeks later. 

Except the 49’s didn’t give a 10 yard cushion continuously to the wide receivers, coverage was much tighter and they were able to pressure Tua. If your 4 aren’t getting pressure, you have to change something. Frazier is the definition of insanity, his photo is in Websters defining it….

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

14 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Sure the Bills can beat them in playoffs!

 

Let's NOT be negative... 

They haven't yet. What proof supports your position 

[Bill from NYC]

9 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

 Frazier is the definition of insanity, his photo is in Websters defining it….

OK, fair enough but where does this place McDermott, the defense oriented head coach?  McDermott deserves a huge chunk of the blame imo.

 

[Meatloaf63]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

OK, fair enough but where does this place McDermott, the defense oriented head coach?  McDermott deserves a huge chunk of the blame imo.

 

You are 100% correct. He’s probably more to blame since he’s responsible and doesn’t see the problem. 

[Dopey]

News flash:

The Bills offense blew chunks vs the Bengals too. But Josh will get every excuse in the book. It was a TOTAL team collapse. Were there a couple of dropped passes? Sure. Josh missed wide open receivers too. And for some reason, Josh would not dump the ball off to guys open underneath. There’s a lot of Dorsey bashing when it’s “Hero Josh “ who won’t take what is given. This playoff loss wasn’t in Frazier. 

[Bermuda Triangle]

2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

It’s hard to take this post, and any other complainer’s post, seriously when they suggest that the Bills play a simple defense. 
 

Their defense is pretty much the opposite of simple. Sure, they don’t have elaborate or flashy blitzes, but their zone system is incredibly complicated and constantly checking into different plays/coverages based on personnel and alignment on offense. Our back 7 are probably the best coached in the whole league.

 

That said…it’s unlikely this defense will just lineup and physically dominate the other team. Their players just aren’t wired like that or built like that.

 

so in the playoffs when it is cold and you have injuries and the best offensive minds…it’s just not a great recipe. It was especially bad this year because the team was a shell of itself both physically and emotionally.

 

I get everyone is upset we lost, and even more so about how we lost…but this board is just sad. I thought Bills fans were better than this.

 

 

You stated that the Bills' defensive scheme is not a recipe for success in the playoffs, but take issue with other fans for being critical of the scheme?

[Meatloaf63]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

News flash:

The Bills offense blew chunks vs the Bengals too. But Josh will get every excuse in the book. It was a TOTAL team collapse. Were there a couple of dropped passes? Sure. Josh missed wide open receivers too. And for some reason, Josh would not dump the ball off to guys open underneath. There’s a lot of Dorsey bashing when it’s “Hero Josh “ who won’t take what is given. This playoff loss wasn’t in Frazier. 

Frazier is absolutely just as responsible as Allen. But you have one thing right, Allen past the midpoint or even sooner refused to check down or take plays that were there for the making. I was complaining from week 8 on that in the end this would be our downfall. Red zone play calling and play design was atrocious so Dorsey doesn’t get to escape criticism, plus he lacked the strength to reel Josh in….

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Very well said, great data to back up your opinion, and very well organized. 

 

I'm not sure how any Bills fan can get on board with Fraizer as the DC. 

 

Food for thought. Do you think it's possible that McD and Beane are holding on to Fraizer so he can be used as a scapegoat when things likely go south? 

Why would you do that instead of just fixing the situation?

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Very well said, great data to back up your opinion, and very well organized. 

 

I'm not sure how any Bills fan can get on board with Fraizer as the DC. 

 

Food for thought. Do you think it's possible that McD and Beane are holding on to Fraizer so he can be used as a scapegoat when things likely go south? 

Thanks, and to answer your question, no not at all.  McD and Beane want it as bad as we do.  So I do not think it has anything to do with using him as a scapegoat.  
 

You can see how much the teams success means to this regime, they are both very connected to Buffalo.  I have zero doubt that they will make what they feel is the best decisions.  Doesn’t mean every decision will be correct, but I have full confidence that each decision is being made on what they believe is going to be best for the team.