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Nerdy Salary Cap Thread


BrooklynBills

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Wanted to do a mock offseason but realizing that the Salary Cap portion is kind of a thread all on its own.  I know its been discussed here but I don't think I've seen anything where the money and decisions are really broken down with the corresponding numbers.  Obviously, this won't be everyone's kind of thread as i realize that some people just don't take that big of interest into the inner roster workings and cap crunching.  Would love to get some feedback though on what others think of some of these decisions and some of the different cap saving routes we could go.

 

Initial Cap Space: -16.8 million

 

Step 1: Creating Cap Space (easy moves)

-Restructure Josh Allen => creates 21.5 million in cap space

-Restructure Von Miller => creates 10.8 million in cap space

-Cut Nyheim Hines => creates 4.8 million in cap space

-Cut Isaiah McKenzie => creates 2.6 million in cap space

-Cut Siran Neal => creates 2.2 million in cap space

 

These moves are no brainers IMO and would give the Bills roughly $25 million in cap space heading into the offseason.  The rookie pool will account for roughly $7 million.  So the Bills will effectively have $18 million in cap space for FA contracts and re-signings after these moves.  Josh Allen's deal is structured for us to restructure it several times before we extend him again and if it reaches a point where we are afraid to restructure it because his play has dropped off or because of injury then we are screwed in that short term and will just need to eat it. Von's deal seems to be structured for him to do a planned restructure this offseason.  Cutting Hines sucks because I like the player but paying a backup RB almost $5 mil on the cap is just terrible roster management.  I wouldn't be opposed to doing a small extension that could lower his cap hit some but realistically I don't think it makes sense.  McKenzie and Neal are backups who are just paid too much considering how much playing time we want them to get moving forward.

 

Step 2: Creating more Cap Space (harder decisions) - players who I don't think should play on these cap numbers next year

-Mitch Morse at 11.6 => I think with the way his contract is structured initially this coming season would be his last with the Bills.  Next year, they can get out the contract with real minimal dead money.  But I don't know if it's justifiable to pay him over $11 mil on the cap next year simply due to his overall play.  He is paid as a top 10 C and I don't think his overall play is there at all.  Not to mention that we have a very capable C in waiting in Ryan Bates.  Cutting Morse would save the Bills $5.3 million.  Morse has $0 GTD this year or next with cap hits of over $11 mil and base salaries of $6.6 and $6.8 so I wonder if there is a good chance here to work on a salary reduction that gives him money this year and lowers that 11 mil hit to something more manageable.  Either way, I'm trying to save at least $3-$5 mil on the cap by cutting him or working out a salary reduction. Lets just split the difference and say we save $4 mil.

 

-Ed Oliver at 10.7 and Tim Settle at 4.9 => The interior of the Bills DL was a big let down last season.  Daquon Jones was the only player that I felt was having a solid season.  Oliver was streaky and he has periods where he is just invisible.  Settle was a disappointment. Bills are locked in to $10.7 GTD for Oliver this year.  I don't think a trade is going to make any sense for another team given that Oliver's full salary is GTD. Maybe the best thing here is to extend Oliver with a reasonable out in two years.  Try to take your lumps in the future when the cap hopefully rises and you can better absorb some dead money. Or you get lucky and he takes a step and you have him signed to a reasonable deal.  Just don't think he play on that cap number. Settle isn't signed after next year and I think I'd just cut him and save the 2.2 mil.

I'd extend Oliver at 4yrs, 44 million, giving him a 13 mi signing and GTD his year 1 salary and a portion of year 2.  Total GTD $: 17.9

Signing bonus: 13 million

Year 1 cap: 5.15

Year 2 cap: 8.25

Year 3 cap: 14.25 (can cut him before this season saving 7.75m)

Year 4 cap: 16.75

 

Cap Savings from Morse cut or salary reduction: calling it $4 mil 

Cap Savings from Oliver extension: 5.55 mil

Cap Savings from Settle release: 2.2 mil

Total effective cap room: roughly $29-30 million

 

Step 3: Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano

So I've lumped these two guys together because they are both 29 and have been consistent performers.  They are both effectively signed for two more years and I think both are likely candidates for small extensions in a year or two.  As such, it could also be beneficial to restructure their deals and buy some more cap room.  Especially if there are plans to extend them moving forward.  For now, I will just leave it as a thought, but the Bills can save roughly $6 mil on a Dawkins re-structure and another 6.5 on a Milano re-structure.  I think you would only do this if there was a strong plan to extend these guys moving forward though.

 

Anyway, would love hear some opinions on some of these decisions.  Nothing really seems too out of left field IMO.

 

Will try to put together something for Free Agency with regards to the salary cap in a few days.

 

 

 

Edited by BrooklynBills
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I don't think restructuring Von Miller is such a good idea. 

Yes, w/ Allen, due to his dead cap you're married to him for a few more yrs regardless, so adding a millions more potential dead cap & spreading out the cap hit of a few $mill each yr for a few yrs is NBD.  He is young & the chance of him not substantially under producing relative to his contract are slim.

That's not the case w/ Miller, especially as he's coming off a significant injury surgery.  I can see the potential that you might be "stuck" w/ him in the near future if he under performs his contract.  That's a bad situation that our current regime has typically managed to avoid after their initial purge.

Also, I'm not sure how this works, but I believe since Oliver is playing under his option year, no savings can be made by extending him.  His salary is what it is.

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1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Why cut Hynes? 

 

 

Seems a waste of a now 5th Round pick to just cut him...

 

He has value for the team as a Returner and hopefully they can find away to include him in the Offense..

 

$5M though is too steep so hopefully they can cut a new deal that will give him some guaranteed money...

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1 hour ago, eSJayDee said:

I don't think restructuring Von Miller is such a good idea. 

Yes, w/ Allen, due to his dead cap you're married to him for a few more yrs regardless, so adding a millions more potential dead cap & spreading out the cap hit of a few $mill each yr for a few yrs is NBD.  He is young & the chance of him not substantially under producing relative to his contract are slim.

That's not the case w/ Miller, especially as he's coming off a significant injury surgery.  I can see the potential that you might be "stuck" w/ him in the near future if he under performs his contract.  That's a bad situation that our current regime has typically managed to avoid after their initial purge.

Also, I'm not sure how this works, but I believe since Oliver is playing under his option year, no savings can be made by extending him.  His salary is what it is.

Yeah, Von’s is exactly the type of contract you can’t restructure.  He was an all-in play.  Also, Oliver is guaranteed nearly $11m in 2023.  Why would he sign a 3 year extension that only guaranteed him another $7m?  Seems like he’d be much better off hitting free agency.

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Good write up but I agree with other posters I’m not cutting Hines. He was underutilized and Dorsey needs to be more creative with his skill set. Also if I’m extending either Dawkins or Milano to save money now it’s Milano hands down. He’s a lynchpin to our D no matter who is running the show and I don’t see his play dropping anytime soon

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3 hours ago, BrooklynBills said:

Wanted to do a mock offseason but realizing that the Salary Cap portion is kind of a thread all on its own.  I know its been discussed here but I don't think I've seen anything where the money and decisions are really broken down with the corresponding numbers.  Obviously, this won't be everyone's kind of thread as i realize that some people just don't take that big of interest into the inner roster workings and cap crunching.  Would love to get some feedback though on what others think of some of these decisions and some of the different cap saving routes we could go.

 

Initial Cap Space: -16.8 million

 

Step 1: Creating Cap Space (easy moves)

-Restructure Josh Allen => creates 21.5 million in cap space

-Restructure Von Miller => creates 10.8 million in cap space

-Cut Nyheim Hines => creates 4.8 million in cap space

-Cut Isaiah McKenzie => creates 2.6 million in cap space

-Cut Siran Neal => creates 2.2 million in cap space

 

These moves are no brainers IMO and would give the Bills roughly $25 million in cap space heading into the offseason.  The rookie pool will account for roughly $7 million.  So the Bills will effectively have $18 million in cap space for FA contracts and re-signings after these moves.  Josh Allen's deal is structured for us to restructure it several times before we extend him again and if it reaches a point where we are afraid to restructure it because his play has dropped off or because of injury then we are screwed in that short term and will just need to eat it. Von's deal seems to be structured for him to do a planned restructure this offseason.  Cutting Hines sucks because I like the player but paying a backup RB almost $5 mil on the cap is just terrible roster management.  I wouldn't be opposed to doing a small extension that could lower his cap hit some but realistically I don't think it makes sense.  McKenzie and Neal are backups who are just paid too much considering how much playing time we want them to get moving forward.

 

Step 2: Creating more Cap Space (harder decisions) - players who I don't think should play on these cap numbers next year

-Mitch Morse at 11.6 => I think with the way his contract is structured initially this coming season would be his last with the Bills.  Next year, they can get out the contract with real minimal dead money.  But I don't know if it's justifiable to pay him over $11 mil on the cap next year simply due to his overall play.  He is paid as a top 10 C and I don't think his overall play is there at all.  Not to mention that we have a very capable C in waiting in Ryan Bates.  Cutting Morse would save the Bills $5.3 million.  Morse has $0 GTD this year or next with cap hits of over $11 mil and base salaries of $6.6 and $6.8 so I wonder if there is a good chance here to work on a salary reduction that gives him money this year and lowers that 11 mil hit to something more manageable.  Either way, I'm trying to save at least $3-$5 mil on the cap by cutting him or working out a salary reduction. Lets just split the difference and say we save $4 mil.

 

-Ed Oliver at 10.7 and Tim Settle at 4.9 => The interior of the Bills DL was a big let down last season.  Daquon Jones was the only player that I felt was having a solid season.  Oliver was streaky and he has periods where he is just invisible.  Settle was a disappointment. Bills are locked in to $10.7 GTD for Oliver this year.  I don't think a trade is going to make any sense for another team given that Oliver's full salary is GTD. Maybe the best thing here is to extend Oliver with a reasonable out in two years.  Try to take your lumps in the future when the cap hopefully rises and you can better absorb some dead money. Or you get lucky and he takes a step and you have him signed to a reasonable deal.  Just don't think he play on that cap number. Settle isn't signed after next year and I think I'd just cut him and save the 2.2 mil.

I'd extend Oliver at 4yrs, 44 million, giving him a 13 mi signing and GTD his year 1 salary and a portion of year 2.  Total GTD $: 17.9

Signing bonus: 13 million

Year 1 cap: 5.15

Year 2 cap: 8.25

Year 3 cap: 14.25 (can cut him before this season saving 7.75m)

Year 4 cap: 16.75

 

Cap Savings from Morse cut or salary reduction: calling it $4 mil 

Cap Savings from Oliver extension: 5.55 mil

Cap Savings from Settle release: 2.2 mil

Total effective cap room: roughly $29-30 million

 

Step 3: Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano

So I've lumped these two guys together because they are both 29 and have been consistent performers.  They are both effectively signed for two more years and I think both are likely candidates for small extensions in a year or two.  As such, it could also be beneficial to restructure their deals and buy some more cap room.  Especially if there are plans to extend them moving forward.  For now, I will just leave it as a thought, but the Bills can save roughly $6 mil on a Dawkins re-structure and another 6.5 on a Milano re-structure.  I think you would only do this if there was a strong plan to extend these guys moving forward though.

 

Anyway, would love hear some opinions on some of these decisions.  Nothing really seems too out of left field IMO.

 

Will try to put together something for Free Agency with regards to the salary cap in a few days.

 

 

 

I would be very nervous restructuring Von Miller's contract.  He's coming off an ACL and restructuring his contract means paying him big money on an uncuttable contract until he is almost 40.  I suspect restructuring him is the plan but I really hope they don't.  I actually hope they don't restructure too many people, I'd like to see the bills get out of cap jail and maybe be able to sign a top tier FA at an offensive position of need *next* year.

 

I think restructuring Josh is a no brainer and would also cut Neal, McKenzie, Hines, & Settle for cap space.  

 

If they trade Oliver instead of extend him who is on the hook for the guaranteed salary next year?  Would it be the Bills or the new team?  Depending on the answer I might try to trade him instead of extend him.  

Edited by Adam727
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3 hours ago, eSJayDee said:

I don't think restructuring Von Miller is such a good idea. 

Yes, w/ Allen, due to his dead cap you're married to him for a few more yrs regardless, so adding a millions more potential dead cap & spreading out the cap hit of a few $mill each yr for a few yrs is NBD.  He is young & the chance of him not substantially under producing relative to his contract are slim.

That's not the case w/ Miller, especially as he's coming off a significant injury surgery.  I can see the potential that you might be "stuck" w/ him in the near future if he under performs his contract.  That's a bad situation that our current regime has typically managed to avoid after their initial purge.

Also, I'm not sure how this works, but I believe since Oliver is playing under his option year, no savings can be made by extending him.  His salary is what it is.

I think the exact opposite. You make your future cap projections and ask yourself is it better to save cap this year vs future years? Spreading out Von’s base salary over a few more seasons just makes sense because the cap is projected to rise considerably over the next few seasons.

 

Yes, the Bills are likely to have dead cap but you’d only be adding a small amount of dead cap to the future. Take that cap savings now, when you really need it.

 

You can save about $11 million this year while losing about $2.5 million a year for 4-5 seasons. It’s a no brainer. That $2.5 million can be easily dealt with in the future. And who knows, maybe Von plays until he’s 40 like he says he wants to.

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4 hours ago, BrooklynBills said:

Wanted to do a mock offseason but realizing that the Salary Cap portion is kind of a thread all on its own.  I know its been discussed here but I don't think I've seen anything where the money and decisions are really broken down with the corresponding numbers.  Obviously, this won't be everyone's kind of thread as i realize that some people just don't take that big of interest into the inner roster workings and cap crunching.  Would love to get some feedback though on what others think of some of these decisions and some of the different cap saving routes we could go.

 

Initial Cap Space: -16.8 million

 

Step 1: Creating Cap Space (easy moves)

-Restructure Josh Allen => creates 21.5 million in cap space

-Restructure Von Miller => creates 10.8 million in cap space

-Cut Nyheim Hines => creates 4.8 million in cap space

-Cut Isaiah McKenzie => creates 2.6 million in cap space

-Cut Siran Neal => creates 2.2 million in cap space

 

These moves are no brainers IMO and would give the Bills roughly $25 million in cap space heading into the offseason.  The rookie pool will account for roughly $7 million.  So the Bills will effectively have $18 million in cap space for FA contracts and re-signings after these moves.  Josh Allen's deal is structured for us to restructure it several times before we extend him again and if it reaches a point where we are afraid to restructure it because his play has dropped off or because of injury then we are screwed in that short term and will just need to eat it. Von's deal seems to be structured for him to do a planned restructure this offseason.  Cutting Hines sucks because I like the player but paying a backup RB almost $5 mil on the cap is just terrible roster management.  I wouldn't be opposed to doing a small extension that could lower his cap hit some but realistically I don't think it makes sense.  McKenzie and Neal are backups who are just paid too much considering how much playing time we want them to get moving forward.

 

Step 2: Creating more Cap Space (harder decisions) - players who I don't think should play on these cap numbers next year

-Mitch Morse at 11.6 => I think with the way his contract is structured initially this coming season would be his last with the Bills.  Next year, they can get out the contract with real minimal dead money.  But I don't know if it's justifiable to pay him over $11 mil on the cap next year simply due to his overall play.  He is paid as a top 10 C and I don't think his overall play is there at all.  Not to mention that we have a very capable C in waiting in Ryan Bates.  Cutting Morse would save the Bills $5.3 million.  Morse has $0 GTD this year or next with cap hits of over $11 mil and base salaries of $6.6 and $6.8 so I wonder if there is a good chance here to work on a salary reduction that gives him money this year and lowers that 11 mil hit to something more manageable.  Either way, I'm trying to save at least $3-$5 mil on the cap by cutting him or working out a salary reduction. Lets just split the difference and say we save $4 mil.

 

-Ed Oliver at 10.7 and Tim Settle at 4.9 => The interior of the Bills DL was a big let down last season.  Daquon Jones was the only player that I felt was having a solid season.  Oliver was streaky and he has periods where he is just invisible.  Settle was a disappointment. Bills are locked in to $10.7 GTD for Oliver this year.  I don't think a trade is going to make any sense for another team given that Oliver's full salary is GTD. Maybe the best thing here is to extend Oliver with a reasonable out in two years.  Try to take your lumps in the future when the cap hopefully rises and you can better absorb some dead money. Or you get lucky and he takes a step and you have him signed to a reasonable deal.  Just don't think he play on that cap number. Settle isn't signed after next year and I think I'd just cut him and save the 2.2 mil.

I'd extend Oliver at 4yrs, 44 million, giving him a 13 mi signing and GTD his year 1 salary and a portion of year 2.  Total GTD $: 17.9

Signing bonus: 13 million

Year 1 cap: 5.15

Year 2 cap: 8.25

Year 3 cap: 14.25 (can cut him before this season saving 7.75m)

Year 4 cap: 16.75

 

Cap Savings from Morse cut or salary reduction: calling it $4 mil 

Cap Savings from Oliver extension: 5.55 mil

Cap Savings from Settle release: 2.2 mil

Total effective cap room: roughly $29-30 million

 

Step 3: Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano

So I've lumped these two guys together because they are both 29 and have been consistent performers.  They are both effectively signed for two more years and I think both are likely candidates for small extensions in a year or two.  As such, it could also be beneficial to restructure their deals and buy some more cap room.  Especially if there are plans to extend them moving forward.  For now, I will just leave it as a thought, but the Bills can save roughly $6 mil on a Dawkins re-structure and another 6.5 on a Milano re-structure.  I think you would only do this if there was a strong plan to extend these guys moving forward though.

 

Anyway, would love hear some opinions on some of these decisions.  Nothing really seems too out of left field IMO.

 

Will try to put together something for Free Agency with regards to the salary cap in a few days.

 

 

 

Nice write up. I can see Oliver getting traded imo.  He’s the only one that has potential trade value on the dline that can free up decent money by moving.  Epenesa I can see getting traded for a late round pick as well.  We are stuck we Millers contract so hopefully he’s back to 100% by mid year.  I think we’re going to see a very new defense next year which is why I thought it would make sense to bring in a new coordinator.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see some big names traded from the defense.  

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12 hours ago, Mynamemike said:

Nice write up. I can see Oliver getting traded imo.  He’s the only one that has potential trade value on the dline that can free up decent money by moving.  Epenesa I can see getting traded for a late round pick as well.  We are stuck we Millers contract so hopefully he’s back to 100% by mid year.  I think we’re going to see a very new defense next year which is why I thought it would make sense to bring in a new coordinator.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see some big names traded from the defense.  

 

I'd love to move Oliver and Epenesa.  Both on the last year of their rookie deals.  Both not likely to be extended unless they blow up, in which case we'd have a whole new set of issues to deal with.  

 

If we could get back a 4th for Oliver and a 6th for Epenesa, I'd be thrilled.  Clear out Oliver's cap hit and give Kingsley Jonathan Epenesa's role.  Bring back Phillips, Shaq and draft a DT.  

 

We need to get started on future contingencies for this DL anyway.  Oliver, Jones, Settle, Epenesa all on the last year of their deals.  Phillips and Lawson would likely be back on one year deals again as well. 

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Seeing alot about cutting Hines.  I should have put in a note that I would be in favor of giving him a small extension that lowers his cap hit.  Mostly just cut him because he has the 16th highest cap hit among RBs and that isn't a justifiable use of cap space given that he'll likely be the 3rd option and RB and play STs.

 

As far as Von's restructure - the Bills can't get out of his contract in any way realistic way until after the 2024 season.  He has GTD salaries until then.  His restructure spreads out roughly over $10 million over the remaining 5 years - so you are adding about $2.5 mil to his future cap hits. 

 

His 2023 cap number goes from 18.6 to 7.6.

His 2024 cap number goes from 21 to 23.9. 

Half of his 2024 salary is GTD so the Bills were NEVER getting away from this large 2024 cap hit. 

With no restructure, the cost to cut him after 2024: DEAD MONEY 7.41 | CAP SAVINGS 13.8

With the restructure, the cost to cut him after 2024: DEAD MONEY 15.7 | CAP SAVINGS 8.2

 

The cap saving benefits of doing his restructure now far outweigh the extra 5.6 mil in cap savings that the Bills will get on the 2025 cap if they just kept the contract as is.  To put it in a bit of perspective.  The 10.8 mil that Bills save on the 2023 cap with the restructure is roughly 5% of the 2023 cap.  The extra 5.6 mil in cap savings that the Bills will get on the 2025 cap (which is projected as 282 mil) is roughly 2% of the 2025 cap. 

 

This also doesn't factor in the idea that Miller could be just fine from his injury AND that the equivalent of a $24 mil Von Miller cap hit in 2025 (which is what his 2025 cap hit would be after the restructure) would be a $19 mil cap hit for the 2023 season which is roughly what Von Miller's current cap hit is now without the restructure.  This is basically a free $10.8 million cap savings.

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14 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think the exact opposite. You make your future cap projections and ask yourself is it better to save cap this year vs future years? Spreading out Von’s base salary over a few more seasons just makes sense because the cap is projected to rise considerably over the next few seasons.

 

Yes, the Bills are likely to have dead cap but you’d only be adding a small amount of dead cap to the future. Take that cap savings now, when you really need it.

 

You can save about $11 million this year while losing about $2.5 million a year for 4-5 seasons. It’s a no brainer. That $2.5 million can be easily dealt with in the future. And who knows, maybe Von plays until he’s 40 like he says he wants to.

 

Restructuring Von's contract is a risk no matter what anyone says.  We will see what Beane thinks about it.

If anything, his would be the last to get restructured IMO.

 

The 2024 Salary Cap issue will be a tougher one than this year if all these moves are made.

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18 hours ago, BrooklynBills said:

These moves are no brainers IMO and would give the Bills roughly $25 million in cap space heading into the offseason.  The rookie pool will account for roughly $7 million. 

 

The bills will only need 2-2.5 million to sign their rookies. They currently have picks in the following rounds with the following cap hits below. That totals around 6.7 million however each one of those 6 picks will knock off a bottom level contract from the roster which would wipe out about 4.5 million of the 6.7 above.

 

1st round- $2.3 million cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $1.55 M

2nd round- $1.1 million cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $355k

3rd round- $950k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $205k

4th round- $850k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $105k

5th  round- $745k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $0k

5th  round- $745k cap hit (minus 745k min player) = $0k

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