Reassessing the Over-Reactions to the Divisional Round

[KDIGGZ]

5 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Not sure how they weren't already ahead of Chiefs/Bills last year. 

Bengals were not very good last year and snuck in with Patrick Mahomes having an entire 2nd half of a Josh Allen Jets type game where nothing goes right. The real AFC championship game last year was Bills-Chiefs and everyone knew it. Bills window of dominance was end of 2021 to middle of 2022 and they blew it with 13 seconds. I truly think we would have won the Super Bowl last year if we squib kicked it. Hopefully we get another opportunity but we might have missed our best chance

[Buffalo Boy]

39 minutes ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Now that the Championship games are over, I'd like to hear opinions on:

1. Are the Bills inside or outside the top tier of the AFC?  (Did the Bills have a bad game against the Bengals or are the Bills clearly inferior to the Bengals & Chiefs?)
2. What's the take on the Eagles?  (Have they been tested yet?  Played the 5th string QB for SF!! (Purdy w/no arm!)  Now they will play the Chiefs - who are so banged up they are thanking God there is 2 weeks until the SB.)

 

My Take:

1. The Bills are in the conversation!  They played their worst game since the Indy game early in 2021.  They were 14-4 this year (not 4-14).  Unfortunately that last game will stay in our mouths until September.
2. The Eagles have had it easy this year and I honestly don't know if they're as good as the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills.  However, much like their season, they will be facing a diminished opponent in their next game (wounded Chiefs).  Maybe a healthier Bengals team would have been a more formidable opponent for them.  Can Mahomes work his magic one more week?

    The Eagles Dline had a historic season sack wise and are the key to their SB victory. Mahomes will be running around like a chicken with his head cut off again but nobody will call him erratic or anything else as he loses his second SB.

     Our coaching is inferior to all 4 championship weekend teams. That will continue to be our downfall. 
    The Bills head coach is laid back and projects a soft, reactionary demeanor …… just like his D

[mjt328]

20 minutes ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Now that the Championship games are over, I'd like to hear opinions on:

1. Are the Bills inside or outside the top tier of the AFC?  (Did the Bills have a bad game against the Bengals or are the Bills clearly inferior to the Bengals & Chiefs?)

 

As of today, the Bills are the #3 team in the AFC.  I would consider them top-tier in the AFC, but a slight step behind the Chiefs and Bengals.

 

The biggest problem for the Bills is moving-forward.  It's going to take a brilliant offseason from Brandon Beane for us to just keep pace.  Much less take the steps needed to pass those teams.  Not to mention other young rosters (Jets, Jaguars) who are clearly on the rise.

 

Just looking at the defense... They have two major free agents (Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds) who they really can't afford to bring back.  They have two key players coming back from serious injuries (Micah Hyde and Von Miller), who may never be the same.  Their best defensive player over the past 4-5 years (Tre White) came back a step slower, and it's fair to question if he ever returns to form.  The Pro Bowl breakout season we expected from a former Top 10 pick (Ed Oliver) never materialized.  Other early picks (AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham) have struggled to make an impact.  Our top picks from last season (Kaiir Elam, Terrel Bernard) don't appear to be fits in our defensive scheme.

 

On offense... The O-Line has been a glaring weakness for years now.  We don't have cap space to fix it.  None of our weapons are a legitimate threat for opposing defenses (outside of Stefon Diggs).  We don't have the cap space to fix it. 

 

 

20 minutes ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

1. What's the take on the Eagles?  (Have they been tested yet?  Played the 5th string QB for SF!! (Purdy w/no arm!)  Now they will play the Chiefs - who are so banged up they are thanking God there is 2 weeks until the SB.)

 

The Eagles are a good team.  Very well balanced and very well coached.

They haven't been tested much this season, but in the end it might not matter.

 

[finn]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The Eagles O-Line and D -Line are scary good.  They would destroy us unless Josh played out of his mind.  I think the Eagles are much better than KC but if KC can keep it close, you can never count out Mahomes.  Cincy with a healthy O-Line would’ve given Eagles the best game.    

A healthy Bills D-line can compete with the KC and Philly O-lines.

 

The screaming problems are O-line and WR. I mean, Beasley and John Brown? Saffold and Spencer Brown? Those weren't injury replacements. They're the sign of a GM who knew he blew it. 

 

Let's see if the light goes on, finally, this offseason. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

35 minutes ago, boyst said:

not to gang pile on the dead horse...

 

1. we are in it as among the best but as long as this coaching staff is together as it exists today - then we are only pretenders with the finesse and skill to beat anyone.

A) we are designed to beat the chiefs.

b) that does not align to teams like cinci, miami, nyj, phili and a few others who can capitalize on on a 3 or 4 man rush on defense

 

2. the chiefs are what we are not. they have skill and so much that we have but they have focus, direction, coaching, and a scheme in place that has rhythm.

 

 

 

Interesting you mention coaching.  Andy Reid lasted 14 years with Eagles, made it to one SB and lost, went to the playoffs 9 of the 14 years.  Overall had a worse regular season record than McD and about the same in playoffs.  Even in KC it took to year 7 before he won the SB and good chance he'd had got fired if he hadn't won it that year when he did.  Now he's a legend.  Can recall his MO for years was can't win the big one!

 

Bill Belichick's record in Cleveland was much worse than Mc'd  and Sean McVay has a little worse record, but did have much more initial success than McD

 

What's it all mean, likely that even great coaches take awhile to figure it out, often longer than it takes players to figure it out.

[without a drought]

I just reassessed the over-reaction and concluded that there sure was a lot of it.

[Airseven]

Bills are outside the top tier of contenders and Allen is outside the top tier of QBs.

[Drew21PA]

Buffalo can beat KC

 

but not cincinatti at this point

 

so it’s weird to me 

 

although buffalo playing prior to last week would have beaten last nights bengals team in my opinion

 

[Shortchaz]

Watching the eagles offensive line play made me jealous. The numbers weren’t gaudy but I thought they looked amazing. 
 

a revamped o-line is #1, 2,3 on my offseason wish list (since we aren’t firing any coaches) 

[boyst]

7 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Interesting you mention coaching.  Andy Reid lasted 14 years with Eagles, made it to one SB and lost, went to the playoffs 9 of the 14 years.  Overall had a worse regular season record than McD and about the same in playoffs.  Even in KC it took to year 7 before he won the SB and good chance he'd had got fired if he hadn't won it that year when he did.  Now he's a legend.  Can recall his MO for years was can't win the big one!

 

Bill Belichick's record in Cleveland was much worse than Mc'd  and Sean McVay has a little worse record, but did have much more initial success than McD

 

What's it all mean, likely that even great coaches take awhile to figure it out, often longer than it takes players to figure it out.

Well, 14 yrs... Or even 10... Josh is not going to last that long

 

No coach/QB combo has won the super bowl when the relationship has existed over 5 years.

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Now that the Championship games are over, I'd like to hear opinions on:

1. Are the Bills inside or outside the top tier of the AFC?  (Did the Bills have a bad game against the Bengals or are the Bills clearly inferior to the Bengals & Chiefs?)
2. What's the take on the Eagles?  (Have they been tested yet?  Played the 5th string QB for SF!! (Purdy w/no arm!)  Now they will play the Chiefs - who are so banged up they are thanking God there is 2 weeks until the SB.)

 

My Take:

1. The Bills are in the conversation!  They played their worst game since the Indy game early in 2021.  They were 14-4 this year (not 4-14).  Unfortunately that last game will stay in our mouths until September.
2. The Eagles have had it easy this year and I honestly don't know if they're as good as the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills.  However, much like their season, they will be facing a diminished opponent in their next game (wounded Chiefs).  Maybe a healthier Bengals team would have been a more formidable opponent for them.  Can Mahomes work his magic one more week?

1. Bills are top 3 but are #3 till they beat Chiefs or Cincy in the playoffs. (Or of course make the SB period)

 

2. Eagles got lucky yesterday that Purdy got  hurt on the first series of the game. They also got a TON of help from the refs, a lot of boarderline or downright bad calls against SF. I mean their O didn’t look scary seeing as how they got 1 TD on a 4th down completion that was actually incomplete. Their second TD was on a bad hands to the face call on 3rd down (when holding was obvious before the hand)  and a 3rd TD thanks to SF 4th string QB dropping the ball.. even with those 3 goofs it was 21-7 and the. They had go back to Purdy who couldn’t throw the ball and the game was lost.. it was a joke. 

[LABILLBACKER]

49 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

We have seen pretty much all we’re going to see from the Bills. A good team but an organization that’s completely unwilling to make the necessary moves. Unfortunately. 
 

As for the Eagles, and Chiefs, I marvel at how Philadelphia rebuilt everything so quickly. I honestly thought it was much longer ago that Wentz was their guy. The Chiefs legacy is very much so on the line in two weeks. They’ve hosted five straight Championship games and we’re going to see whether they’ve got enough left for anything more than a late fourth quarter comeback win this time. 

I really feel sorry for Josh. As long as the Pegulas keep McDermott around with his merry men of coaches, this team will win just enough games to slide into the playoffs but tear your heart out immediately. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

I really feel sorry for Josh. As long as the Pegulas keep McDermott around with his merry men of coaches, this team will win just enough games to slide into the playoffs but tear your heart out immediately. 

“Slide into the playoffs”

 

My goodness. 

[ChasBB]

The Bills are on the outside looking in, imo.  Getting defeated is one thing, but not showing up and then GIVING UP after an early 14-point deficit is unacceptable.  Now, we cannot trust the team to at even COMPETE in these big games, let alone win one, and THAT is a big problem.  Unless there is some sort of significant shake-up in coaching I don't see Bills even winning the division next season.  Sorry, just how I see it.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

Well, 14 yrs... Or even 10... Josh is not going to last that long

 

No coach/QB combo has won the super bowl when the relationship has existed over 5 years.

 

Allen likely has 10 years left. 

 

Unless I'm missing what you're saying Belichick and Brady were together more than 5 years..  If KC wins this year will be 5 years.  Shanahan lasted more than 5 years, but Elway was gone after they won 2 in a row.  Maybe the point is you can be a great coach, but can't last long in any one location??

[Billsfan1972]

26 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Buffalo can beat KC

 

but not cincinatti at this point

 

so it’s weird to me 

 

although buffalo playing prior to last week would have beaten last nights bengals team in my opinion

 

They played Cincy one time & were badly outcoached.  Talk about over reaching.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

The Eagles are really strong at the LOS on both sides of the ball. Hurts is playing as well as anyone from the QB position. I think they will beat KC by at least 10. The Bills are a good team obviously, but they need to improve the OL and DL if they ever want to get past the Chiefs or Bengals. Another playmaker at WR would also be nice. It can't just be Diggs as the only elite level WR.

 

Hurts looked massively overrated yesterday...basically looked like a very VERY poor man's Josh Allen when healthy without the ability to stiff arm DLinemen to the ground or run over LBs.  Basically like a 70% Josh Allen.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Big Turk

[dpberr]

The Bills are in the upper echelon of the AFC and the league.  Teams that can annually make the playoffs are in the top 1/3.  

 

The Eagles haven't been tested this year.   They had about as opportunistic a regular seasons schedule and outcome in the playoffs as any team could get.  There's a scenario where they get routed in the Super Bowl by the more game tested Chiefs.  

[All_Pro_Bills]

52 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Bills are outside the top tier of contenders and Allen is outside the top tier of QBs.

I agree with 1/2 of this.  I think the Bills right now are arguably the 6th best team in the NFL behind KC. Cinn, Dallas, SF, and Philly.  If anyone wants to argue top tier is getting beat in the division round every year then fine.

 

But I also think Allen is the most talented player at the QB position and THE single player in the league most responsible for his team's success.  Without Allen the Bills are no better than a 7 win team.   I see him being wasted by a regime that won't or can't surround him with enough talented players at other positions on offense.  Their thinking is they can get by with a middling offensive line and lots of 3rd receiver types because Josh's athleticism can cover up those problems.  But against the best teams in the playoffs that approach falls flat.  Another off season of ignoring the offense is unacceptable.  

 

The good news is the team is set at the QB position for the next 5 to 7 years.  The bad news is cap problem, a coaching staff that can't learn from their past mistakes or the successes or strategies of others plus a front office that can't find enough impact starters in the draft year over year along with signing a lot of marginal free agents that are just good enough to get by.  Combine these problems with the Jets and Dolphins knocking on the door and next year might be brutal.   

Edited January 30, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[boyst]

31 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Allen likely has 10 years left. 

 

Unless I'm missing what you're saying Belichick and Brady were together more than 5 years..  If KC wins this year will be 5 years.  Shanahan lasted more than 5 years, but Elway was gone after they won 2 in a row.  Maybe the point is you can be a great coach, but can't last long in any one location??

The first super bowl is win within 5 yrs. 

 

It was a stat discussed in NFLN. I'm too lazy to look it up... Wait. I'm at work... Meh here goes. 

 

As of 2017

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/amp/

 

To my knowledge still true

Edited January 30, 2023 by boyst