With Oliver Value Goes Beyond the Stat Line

[BullBuchanan]

Simply put, Oliver is a massive disappointment based on his draft position and expectation. He's at best a borderline #2 DT and ideally he'd be a #3. I wouldn't paya penny over $3M a year for his production.

[Manther]

On 1/27/2023 at 6:10 PM, Gunsgoodtime said:

I would consider a 5th, and free up that 10m.  Gives us a 5th flyer and can use half that money to replace Oliver and no one will even notice a difference 

I think I would take a 5th, 6th or 7th for Oliver to free up the money.  $10 M to put towards another position like Oline or WR.  $10 M for a rotational player that doesn't make plays is something I am not interested in.

On 1/28/2023 at 4:40 AM, NastyNateSoldiers said:

They put so much assets into that insane rotation. Draft pks money everything. I don’t know how Eric Washington has kept his job he hasn’t developed anyone. 

Agree on everything!

[JohnNord]

On 1/27/2023 at 1:09 PM, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let me start right off that Oliver is not on a level with Williams, Jones, or Donald, but to judge his value solely by the stat line is misleading.

It is pretty common knowledge that Oliver played injured the last half of the season (as did most of the D line) where he saw a disproportional number of double teams than the rest of his linemates. In a Frasier defense, thats kind of the plan. Clog up the middle freeing up the LBs to make a tackle.

Unfortunately, your DE (insert whichever name you like) was routinely beat 1 on 1 by the opposing tackle or tight end, and the pulling lineman blew up your LB, which in most cases was Taron Johnson, resulting in a big run.

Dont forget the 1st half of the season, where you couldn't double team BOTH Miller and Oliver, so there was a lot more pass rush pressure up the middle, and success against the run.

  Removing Oliver from the center of the line when Miller is back means less success defending the middle of the line..it frees up an offensive lineman from the other team.

  The real disaster on the D line is the complete whiff in drafting a bunch of 1st and 2nd round edge rushers that are anything but....

So you would re-sign Ed Oliver to Fletcher Cox money +$14M per year?  Because that what it will take to re-sign him.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 1/27/2023 at 1:22 PM, dorquemada said:

 

Right, there's no such thing as a moral victory

Winning the off-season since 2015!

[3rdand12]

On 1/27/2023 at 1:51 PM, 947 said:

Oliver has always been dominant in stretches, he has a couple amazing games every year. He also has 5-6 games every year that he's invisible. Every year it seems we hear that he's been playing hurt, 4 years of that is a trend.

 

The silly D-Line rotation prevents him from ever putting up notable sack numbers. I suspect if he moves on & plays 80% of snaps like a normal team would do, he'll be viewed as a better player.

Or become even more "injured "

[Scott7975]

Is this like when people tried to convince me that Star Lotulelelfifjkeodi was doing his job and what was asked of him and therefore was good?

[3rdand12]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Is this like when people tried to convince me that Star Lotulelelfifjkeodi was doing his job and what was asked of him and therefore was good?

Those were the days !
he was also not a stat guy but brought the intangibles everyday
till he opted out for the season , anyways

[IndyMark]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

So you would re-sign Ed Oliver to Fletcher Cox money +$14M per year?  Because that what it will take to re-sign him.  

 

I know you are not asking this, but in no universe would that be a coherent move.  In a perfect world we trade Oliver this offseason.  I would take a 5th for him.  And for those that state he produces more than a 5th, my counter argument is does he produce like a $10M per year player?   We all know the answer to that one.

 

Sure, if Beane could get a 4th or 3rd you take that in a nanosecond and assert that Beane is a true Wizard.  For those stating Oliver is worth a 2nd.....you have no clue what you are watching.  If Beane could get a 2nd for Oliver this offseason, Beane should be inducted in Canton this August.

 

Oliver is a below average to average talent. When we needed him the most, he disappeared. Shave off the salary hit, plug in Bryant or Ankou or any late round pick or FA and reinvest that money into the OL.  

 

At worst bring in competition for him, much like those that want to have Brown challenge for his spot on the OL.  Do the same for Oliver, then. What has he done that he should be penciled in as a starter?  I'll wait.......

[finn]

On 1/27/2023 at 1:09 PM, Rich Stadium Original said:

It is pretty common knowledge that Oliver played injured the last half of the season

It's pretty common knowledge that Oliver has never been healthy in his NFL career. 

[JohnNord]

9 minutes ago, IndyMark said:

 

I know you are not asking this, but in no universe would that be a coherent move.  In a perfect world we trade Oliver this offseason.  I would take a 5th for him.  And for those that state he produces more than a 5th, my counter argument is does he produce like a $10M per year player?   We all know the answer to that one.

 

Sure, if Beane could get a 4th or 3rd you take that in a nanosecond and assert that Beane is a true Wizard.  For those stating Oliver is worth a 2nd.....you have no clue what you are watching.  If Beane could get a 2nd for Oliver this offseason, Beane should be inducted in Canton this August.

 

Oliver is a below average to average talent. When we needed him the most, he disappeared. Shave off the salary hit, plug in Bryant or Ankou or any late round pick or FA and reinvest that money into the OL.  

 

At worst bring in competition for him, much like those that want to have Brown challenge for his spot on the OL.  Do the same for Oliver, then. What has he done that he should be penciled in as a starter?  I'll wait.......

I just don’t think the Bills will re-sign him, so it does make you wonder if they could flip him for an asset.  
 

The problem with Oliver is that he can feast on bad lineman, but when he’s matched up against against a physical OL, it’s often way to easy to neutralize him.  While he can have splash plays, it often comes at the expense of an inferior talent.   

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

Those were the days !
he was also not a stat guy but brought the intangibles everyday
till he opted out for the season , anyways

Star was terrible and one of the worst signings Brandon Beane has made.  I guess he was a good teammate and a culture guy but on the field he vastly underplayed his fat contract.  
 

When you watch DaQuan Jones this season, you realize how much bad we had it with Star

[Virgil]

I can’t justify paying him the money he thinks he deserves.  He has strung together a full dominating season yet.  
 

I wouldn’t want the team to pay him on potential 

[HardyBoy]

On 1/28/2023 at 3:50 PM, Shaw66 said:

I don't know what you're talking.  There is no GM in the NFL who will say, "well, the guy is worth $8 million a year, but because he was drafted in the top 10 we'll pay him $11 million."   At this point Oliver, like everyone else, is a piece of meat, and his value will be determined by how good each team thinks he is.   No one will value him based on his draft position. 

 

OLIVER may think he's worth more because of his draft position, but no GM is going to pay him for his draft position.  No one.

 

So I largely agree with your point, but I do think there are bad gms out there who see the draft position like an I've heard of him type thing. 

 

Also, good gms might see a player and think they were playing out of scheme or were not being coached well and see the high pick physical traits and think they can get the value out of the player at a higher contract more in line with their draft position.

 

It's not so much because of their draft position, but the traits that got them drafted that high in the first place. 

 

I know it was a trade, but kind of like Darius trade. Marone thought he could get the value from Darius at that contract...he was wrong because it sounded like Darius hit a finish line with that contract (I'm not judging him, everyone is driven by different things), but he had the ability skill wise to reach that contract, his priorities changed though.

[Alphadawg7]

On 1/27/2023 at 10:09 AM, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let me start right off that Oliver is not on a level with Williams, Jones, or Donald, but to judge his value solely by the stat line is misleading.

It is pretty common knowledge that Oliver played injured the last half of the season (as did most of the D line) where he saw a disproportional number of double teams than the rest of his linemates. In a Frasier defense, thats kind of the plan. Clog up the middle freeing up the LBs to make a tackle.

Unfortunately, your DE (insert whichever name you like) was routinely beat 1 on 1 by the opposing tackle or tight end, and the pulling lineman blew up your LB, which in most cases was Taron Johnson, resulting in a big run.

Dont forget the 1st half of the season, where you couldn't double team BOTH Miller and Oliver, so there was a lot more pass rush pressure up the middle, and success against the run.

  Removing Oliver from the center of the line when Miller is back means less success defending the middle of the line..it frees up an offensive lineman from the other team.

  The real disaster on the D line is the complete whiff in drafting a bunch of 1st and 2nd round edge rushers that are anything but....

 

Let me put it this way...the last 3 playoff losses, with Oliver at DT, we have given up 107 points and 1403 yards.  

 

Everyone on this D is replaceable...literally every single player.  Not once has a defensive player stepped up and showed out individually in the last 3 playoff exits.  

 

I would not spend top end money on a single player on this defense right now, simply because it won't matter.  Fraziers scheme sucks.  

 

Our DL was utterly dominated by mostly backup OL players against Cincy, and they looked just as bad the night Hamlin got hurt against Cincy.  And Cincy is a team whose biggest achilles heel for the past 2 years has been the OL. 

 

Oliver can look great one game and then disappear for multiple games.  He doesn't have the consistency for us to pay him IMO.  If I am Beane, I am looking to trade him this offseason and get some value back in either draft capital, player(s) or some combo of both.  

 

I really wanted him to be the guy to anchor down the DL long term, but he just is wayyyyy too inconsistent and has been easily taken out of the games in our playoff losses.  

[HardyBoy]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Let me put it this way...the last 3 playoff losses, with Oliver at DT, we have given up 107 points and 1403 yards.  

 

Everyone on this D is replaceable...literally every single player.  Not once has a defensive player stepped up and showed out individually in the last 3 playoff exits.  

 

I would not spend top end money on a single player on this defense right now, simply because it won't matter.  Fraziers scheme sucks.  

 

Our DL was utterly dominated by mostly backup OL players against Cincy, and they looked just as bad the night Hamlin got hurt against Cincy.  And Cincy is a team whose biggest achilles heel for the past 2 years has been the OL. 

 

Oliver can look great one game and then disappear for multiple games.  He doesn't have the consistency for us to pay him IMO.  If I am Beane, I am looking to trade him this offseason and get some value back in either draft capital, player(s) or some combo of both.  

 

I really wanted him to be the guy to anchor down the DL long term, but he just is wayyyyy too inconsistent and has been easily taken out of the games in our playoff losses.  

 

Hard to know the consistency without knowing what he was asked to do.

 

I'm not even saying it's a situation where he does his job and someone else doesn't, it could be by design to limit the right play being called against a defense.

 

Thinking something like he might be asked to penetrate and cause a running back to commit to a gap in a defense designed to take away a pass play the other team likes to call, in case the offense does run. The defense's play call might be something where they are conceding a five yard gain as long as Oliver forces the rb to hit that gap, but would give up a 25 yard+ run if Oliver isn't able to funnel the runner.

 

I don't have the stats, but if you looked at % of plays where the opponent got behind the chains, Oliver would have a really large % of either being directly involved or the player closest to the offensive player when he cut and ran into the final defender.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

He’s not even as good as Christian Wilkins. Not hearing any Oliver praise. Not a bust but a complete disappointment.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Hard to know the consistency without knowing what he was asked to do.

 

I'm not even saying it's a situation where he does his job and someone else doesn't, it could be by design to limit the right play being called against a defense.

 

Thinking something like he might be asked to penetrate and cause a running back to commit to a gap in a defense designed to take away a pass play the other team likes to call, in case the offense does run. The defense's play call might be something where they are conceding a five yard gain as long as Oliver forces the rb to hit that gap, but would give up a 25 yard+ run if Oliver isn't able to funnel the runner.

 

I don't have the stats, but if you looked at % of plays where the opponent got behind the chains, Oliver would have a really large % of either being directly involved or the player closest to the offensive player when he cut and ran into the final defender.

I get where you are coming from, but that doesn’t account for his many many games with little to no impact.  They aren’t using him that way every play if every game.  And if they were using him a lot like that, then they are wasting his play anyway and just more reason why Frazier should be gone.   
 

And I’m pretty sure the play calls weren’t to let the opponent walk all over the defense all game the last 3 playoff losses.  And that’s what happened.  Hence the money is better spent elsewhere, this defensive scheme isn’t worth the investment, it’s not netting returns on the investment in the games that really matter.  
 

I’ve been all for keeping the defensive unit up for a while now.  This last straw though of the pathetic showing by the D for the 4th straight year in a playoff loss has completely flipped my interest.  Take the Poyer, Edmunds and Oliver money and put into the OL in multiple spots, and a new WR opposite Diggs.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Maynard]

I’m okay with moving on.

[BillsFanForever19]

Oliver is much like Edmunds in fans minds. He's not a bad player. Personally, I think he's underrated. But being good is not good enough for fans. They point to his Draft status and what others have become in the same Draft to justify that he's no good and should pack his bags. It's ridiculous.

[Andy1]

After their first four years, would you take Oliver or Kyle Williams? 
I think I would take Meatball.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

This thread is like chicken soup for the soul