Bills D probably has 1 more year of running it back - and be good

[appoo]

Not necessarily saying this because I want it to be true (I’m 50/50), but because contractually it’s impossible not to do this.

The Bills defense is tied to Von Miller and Tre White. Both players have contracts that are A) uncuttable, and B) untradable.  
 

I believe all the DE and DTs will likely come back either under contract or renewed cheap contracts.

 

Poyer is gone as a FS, and will be replaced by Micah Hyde (Poyer replaced Hyde as the FS this season to not great results)

 

Jordan would have been replaced by Damar Hamlin, and will now likely be replaced by Christian Benford, an inexperienced but athletic and big player at 6-1, 205, with a 4.55 40.

 

They’ll have to work to get Edmunds signed but that’s gonna happen 

 

That’s all the bad news. Here’s the good news 

 

The bills pass rush was excellent with a healthy Von Miller - which has more to do with Von’s cascading effect than Von himself. He forces the attention of the oiffenses protection scheme, and that makes life easier for the other DEs, and especially Ed Oliver, who because he faces much fewer doubles, is more effective, which in turn makes life harder for the tackle he’s next lined up closest to him, and that really helps the other DE.  
 

When you have a ferocious pass rush, and you have to two elite linebackers in coverage, that’s a secondaries best friend. Why do the Niners have the best defense we’ve seen in a few years? Because they have a great pass rush, the best 2 linebackers in the game right now, and a fairly average secondary that gets away with being average.

 

The Bills secondary actually has considerable upside.  Benford is inexperienced, but a clear athletic upgrade to Damar Hamlin and even Poyer. He showed reasonable defensive instincts when he played early, so there’s some hope there that he can be more than an average SS. Finally, Micah Hyde is a top 5 FS, and that’s huge coming back.
 

Year 2 Kair Elam. He finished his rookie playing very well, and I expect him to get a bit better heading into year 2, and he has everything you want in someone you look to extend towards the end of of his rookie year 

 

Year 2 of Tre coming of his ACL.  At worst, my expectation is that White can be a quality boundary corner. He was already showing signs of that towards the end of the season. The ceiling for him is to return to his normal elite Zone/Boundary state who can also play field given some over the top help (he was never the fastest corner, but his short area quickness + instincts made him remarkable in both zone and basically any shorter to intermediate route)

 

Finally, Von Miller is an athletic freak of nature, and I don’t expect him to be slowed down at all. He’s already done this and come back just as strong and furious and he’ll do it again. 
 

So when you hear Beane talk about his Defense, this is why he probably sounds a bit more optimistic than you’d expect. 3 injuries really crushed that defense in a way that no DC would have been to overcome in Micah Hyde, Tre White and Von Miller. And especially losing Von Miller was the final break. 
 

My expectation, if we get Edmunds back, if White is a bit more explosive in his 2nd year coming off tje ACL and Von is resumed his normal explosiveness, is a top 5 D thag actually holds up in the playoffs. That was the entire reason for bringing Von, because of the cascading impacts to the rest of the DLine. Bills had their bad luck season. Time to get the normal to good luck season on D

Edited January 26, 2023 by appoo

[NeverOutNick]

I can get behind this and it’s also a big reason why I think the focus should be on offensive line and getting Josh a 1B at wide receiver, but I also wouldn’t mind changing defensive philosophy and bringing in a guy like Flores to mix up the scheme of what right now is a pretty vanilla defense that everyone knows what to expect even though we have great individual play makers. 

[HurlyBurly51]

Will they ever be championship caliber under Frazier though?

[JMM]

Great, another year of a " top 5" D during the year, and lay a egg in the playoffs.  But hey they won't give up bombs over the top....🙄

[Einstein]

They're not even good right now.

 

Every postseason under this current regime has been a defensive failure.

 

Once is luck. Twice is circumstance. Three or more times is a habit.

[BearNorth]

This is Von's second ACL surgery, he's 33, will he be the same player, capable of playing at the same level?

 

Case in point - his running mate Odell Beckham.  White is not the same player a year after his ACL surgery.

[appoo]

30 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I can get behind this and it’s also a big reason why I think the focus should be on offensive line and getting Josh a 1B at wide receiver, but I also wouldn’t mind changing defensive philosophy and bringing in a guy like Flores to mix up the scheme of what right now is a pretty vanilla defense that everyone knows what to expect even though we have great individual play makers. 

I think where I’d like more complexity is disguising coverages, rather than anything to do with the front.  But that may have been partially why they let the safeties coach go

30 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Will they ever be championship caliber under Frazier though?

They were with Von. I mean you saw what they did to the chiefs right?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 minutes ago, JMM said:

Great, another year of a " top 5" D during the year, and lay a egg in the playoffs.  But hey they won't give up bombs over the top....🙄

Depends on health. Hard to predict. We can’t depend on Von alone to fix the pass rush. Changes must be made with the DL in some fashion.

[appoo]

22 minutes ago, JMM said:

Great, another year of a " top 5" D during the year, and lay a egg in the playoffs.  But hey they won't give up bombs over the top....🙄

So, this wasn’t what I was saying at all, and there good reason to believe if the Bills had a healthy Von Miller they would have been much better on Sunday 

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Depends on health. Hard to predict. We can’t depend on Von alone to fix the pass rush. Changes must be made with the DL in some fashion.

They can’t afford to make any changes on the DLine

[BillsFan692]

4 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

This is Von's second ACL surgery, he's 33, will he be the same player, capable of playing at the same level?

 

Case in point - his running mate Odell Beckham.  White is not the same player a year after his ACL surgery.

Von only partial tear so he probably recover better

[appoo]

7 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

This is Von's second ACL surgery, he's 33, will he be the same player, capable of playing at the same level?

 

Case in point - his running mate Odell Beckham.  White is not the same player a year after his ACL surgery.

 
As far as ACL issues go, von got lucky. They called it an “ACL Injury”, with at minimum a partial tear - they were doing surgery to fix a meniscus/cartilage issue when the doc decided the knee wasn’t as stable as needed. So I’m pretty hopeful of a quicker, and full recovery.

 

Tre on the other hand, suffered a full tear of his ACL. 

[Mr. WEO]

running what back?

[appoo]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

running what back?

The core and majority of our defensive players 

[harmonkillebrew]

39 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Will they ever be championship caliber under Frazier though?

That's the big question to me.  

I think this Frazier/McDermott system could get the same results with a lot less overall talent.  We've been sold the line that all it need is another DE, another CB, a penetrating DT. So we've been starving Josh and the O of talent, trying to scrabble together an O-line with scraps. 

 

Time to switch it up. This D will be the same, regardless. Good against mediocre offenses and bad against efficient, precise offenses. 

Invest in the offense. Give Josh protection. Give him weapons. Get him a strong, vast RB. and get him a creative play caller

[BBills_88]

The issue I have with the current roster is when Von went down they did not replace him with another effective DE instead the allowed the inexperienced and ineffective DLINE to remain the same.  They could and should have brought someone with more pass rush ability in. 

[nosejob]

49 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Will they ever be championship caliber under Frazier though?

Short answer....No. I do get that they are Hellbent on being able to rush 4, but look what it took for the Niners to build that.....and since we don't have that (many years to suck enough to draft that line)....or a Fred Warner, perhaps we should scheme a little more aggressively. Oh wait, we don't have a D'Meco nevermind.

Edited January 26, 2023 by nosejob

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, BBills_88 said:

The issue I have with the current roster is when Von went down they did not replace him with another effective DE instead the allowed the inexperienced and ineffective DLINE to remain the same.  They could and should have brought someone with more pass rush ability in. 

Such as?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, appoo said:

They can’t afford to make any changes on the DLine

Yes they can. They can literally do anything they want to do. There are different types of changes. They could change DL coach. They could change rush schemes and keep coaches. They could go more dramatic and risk some of the future by upgrading pass rush. 
 

Cap can be manipulated. There will be future consequences but it can be done. You’d also give up draft capital in a trade. But the Bills time is now, the future can wait. 

[Logic]

Meh.

It's too early to say this, IMO.

What if Greg Rousseau takes another step and becomes a double digit sack guy next year? What if the Bills re-sign Tremaine Edmunds? What if Kaiir Elam breaks out and becomes a shutdown corner? What if the coaches move Christian Benford to safety and he looks really good there? What if the Bills draft a defensive tackle in round 3 and he winds up being a really productive rotational pass-rusher?

Tremaine Edmunds is 24.
Taron Johnson is 26.
Greg Rousseau is 22.
Kaiir Elam is 21.
Matt Milano is 28.
Tre'Davious White is 28.
Taron Johnson is 26.
Christian Benford is 22.

The Bills finished as a top 3 scoring defense in three out of the past four seasons. 

Yes, I know the defense has been unimpressive in the playoffs the past few seasons. But no, that doesn't mean we can just pretend that they're not typically a top five defense all season long.

I'm salty about the way the season ended, too. I'm concerned about the fact that the defense doesn't look the same in the playoffs as it does in the regular season, too. I want to see some tweaks to playcalling going forward, too. But to say, as more and more seem to be doing on this forum, that the Bills defense is bad or "only has one year left" is, in my opinion, erroneous. 

 

[appoo]

10 minutes ago, Logic said:

Meh.

It's too early to say this, IMO.

What if Greg Rousseau takes another step and becomes a double digit sack guy next year? What if the Bills re-sign Tremaine Edmunds? What if Kaiir Elam breaks out and becomes a shutdown corner? What if the coaches move Christian Benford to safety and he looks really good there? What if the Bills draft a defensive tackle in round 3 and he winds up being a really productive rotational pass-rusher?

Tremaine Edmunds is 24.
Taron Johnson is 26.
Greg Rousseau is 22.
Kaiir Elam is 21.
Matt Milano is 28.
Tre'Davious White is 28.
Taron Johnson is 26.
Christian Benford is 22.

The Bills finished as a top 3 scoring defense in three out of the past four seasons. 

Yes, I know the defense has been unimpressive in the playoffs the past few seasons. But no, that doesn't mean we can just pretend that they're not typically a top five defense all season long.

I'm salty about the way the season ended, too. I'm concerned about the fact that the defense doesn't look the same in the playoffs as it does in the regular season, too. I want to see some tweaks to playcalling going forward, too. But to say, as more and more seem to be doing on this forum, that the Bills defense is bad or "only has one year left" is, in my opinion, erroneous. 

 

Haha took me awhile to figure out what you were disagreeing with me on, and finally figured it out with your last sentence.

 

 You’re right though, there’s a lot of upside with this current group