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How confident are you in the Bills plan for 2023?


JohnNord
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After the end of the year pressers of Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, I can’t say that I feel great about this team next season.  
 

There doesn’t appear to be any major changes on the coaching staff.  I’m ok with Frazier but have a lot of concern about whether Dorsey is actually going to better like everyone assumes.  It’s not a given that a first year OC gets better from year 1 to year 2.  
 

The other issue is the roster.  It’s basically a mulligan.  The problem is the cap situation.  There’s a lot of free agents who will be walking out the door and not a lot of money to replace them.  
 

What is Beane’s plan?

 

“"We gotta hit on draft picks. We gotta find low-cost free agents. It's on me and my scouting staff to make the right moves."
 

This is a concern because neither is something they have done well.  

 

So with limited draft capital less cap space and many holes what does this mean?  The Bills are doubling down on the coaches and talent who underperformed this year.  
 

- A number of role player or under performing players need to take a step forward this season (Spencer Brown, Gabe Davis, Ed Oliver, AJ, Basham, Elam, Benford.

 

- This years rookie class can’t afford not to contribute.

 

- Multiple  “bargain” free agents are going to need to have a similar impact to DaQuan Jones 

 

- Ken Dorsey is going to show he can evolve and change the offense, which is something we didn’t see much of in 2022.  

 

The wildcard here is Josh Allen.  He helped cover up for a lot of deficiencies and he certainly can better.  It sounds like the plan is to get him better weapon and protection but again… with limited options.  
 

Maybe I’ll change my mind over the next few weeks definitely change, but it just seems like the plan for next season is to do what this this team hasn’t done over the past 4 years. 

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It's debatable whether or not he hits his draft picks. I'd lean towards that he does not especially when you look at the Dline. 
-No real cap soace

-tons of players leaving (may not be bad or good)

-from the sounds of it, we'll have the same coaching staff. Ugh

what happened at the bye? It's the tale of two teams and never really got addressed other than to bring in players we let go of. 
I might have more confidence if we had all the same players and all different coaches at this point. I know I'm wrong but that how I feel right at this moment. 

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These guys appear to loyal and value continuity above all. There is some benefit to that but quite frankly they got exposed in the Bengals.
Josh Allen cannot keep making average linemen and skill talent not named Diggs look good.

Beane is worrying me that he is obsessed with the defensive side of the ball and it just doesn’t work see Aaron Rogers in Green Bay 

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just a friendly reminder that the bills finished as the #1 team overall in DVOA with the #2 ranked offense and #4 ranked defense and the #1 ranked special teams while also finishing with 13 wins, tied for most in the AFC. it's not as bleak as it sounds. 

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My gut instinct as of today is that we will regress next year and end up a bit worse.  Worse record in regular season and earlier exit in post-season.

 

There is an ENTIRE off-season and draft to go through, though, and that opinion is subject to change without notice.

 

Have to see how things play out in months ahead.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, beebe said:

just a friendly reminder that the bills finished as the #1 team overall in DVOA with the #2 ranked offense and #4 ranked defense and the #1 ranked special teams while also finishing with 13 wins, tied for most in the AFC. it's not as bleak as it sounds. 

damn this team probably would have crushed the bengals! what happened?

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24 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

After the end of the year pressers of Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, I can’t say that I feel great about this team next season.  
 

There doesn’t appear to be any major changes on the coaching staff.  I’m ok with Frazier but have a lot of concern about whether Dorsey is actually going to better like everyone assumes.  It’s not a given that a first year OC gets better from year 1 to year 2.  
 

The other issue is the roster.  It’s basically a mulligan.  The problem is the cap situation.  There’s a lot of free agents who will be walking out the door and not a lot of money to replace them.  
 

What is Beane’s plan?

 

“"We gotta hit on draft picks. We gotta find low-cost free agents. It's on me and my scouting staff to make the right moves."
 

This is a concern because neither is something they have done well.  

 

So with limited draft capital less cap space and many holes what does this mean?  The Bills are doubling down on the coaches and talent who underperformed this year.  
 

- A number of role player or under performing players need to take a step forward this season (Spencer Brown, Gabe Davis, Ed Oliver, AJ, Basham, Elam, Benford.

 

- This years rookie class can’t afford not to contribute.

 

- Multiple  “bargain” free agents are going to need to have a similar impact to DaQuan Jones 

 

- Ken Dorsey is going to show he can evolve and change the offense, which is something we didn’t see much of in 2022.  

 

The wildcard here is Josh Allen.  He helped cover up for a lot of deficiencies and he certainly can better.  It sounds like the plan is to get him better weapon and protection but again… with limited options.  
 

Maybe I’ll change my mind over the next few weeks definitely change, but it just seems like the plan for next season is to do what this this team hasn’t done over the past 4 years. 

 

 

I am not confident in the plan for 2023 even though I don't know what that plan is.  I do know Beane's not wrong when he says: “We’ve just got to, you know, we gotta hit on draft picks, we gotta find low-cost free agents that can find roles, whether it's key backup, a solid starter, whatever it is. And so, it'll be on me and our scouting staff to make the right moves.”

 

Maybe we need better coaches too, but we certainly need better players.  

 

And that's why I'm worried.  Beside Josh, Beane hasn't been awesome in the draft and we need him to be.   And good free agents are pricey while Beane's a man on a budget.  

 

I'm not sure there is a good plan that we have the resources to execute.  

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Lower your expectations.  Enjoy a winning season.  They are not Super Bowl caliber as currently constructed.  KC and Cinci have proven that.  So what they got 13 wins?  They have come up short against the big dogs when it matters most.  They have regressed and moved down in the AFC pecking order.  But at least these are not drought years.

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It's far more likely that Dorsey gets better than Frazier figures out a way to not force the offense to score 40 points to win in the playoffs eventually. How many times do we have to see the exact same thing to know it is a problem??

 

No earthly idea why people somehow assume a guy who has been a coach in the league for 25+ years and the DC here since McD arrived will suddenly figure out a way to have your high ranked regular season defense not get smoked in the playoffs eventually but a first time OC can't figure out how to improve.

 

That would be like saying Tom Brady can get better but Kenny Pickett can't. It makes no sense. The easiest time to get better and improve at ANYTHING in life is after your first year at it.

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2 minutes ago, Governor said:

They’re going to lose most of their new fans ($)

 

Who would bother following this team next year if it wasn’t completely different?

 

 Lord, everyone will be back cheering come September. Those who aren't will be replaced by new fans. If Bills fans left every time the team didn't meet their expectations and didn't change to their liking in the offseason, there'd be no more Bills fans left.😂😂

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, beebe said:

just a friendly reminder that the bills finished as the #1 team overall in DVOA with the #2 ranked offense and #4 ranked defense and the #1 ranked special teams while also finishing with 13 wins, tied for most in the AFC. it's not as bleak as it sounds. 


definitely… there’s a recently bias.  I’m just pretty discouraged after last game.  It seems like to be successful next season, they will need to do what they haven’t historically done well.

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28 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

It's far more likely that Dorsey gets better than Frazier figures out a way to not force the offense to score 40 points to win in the playoffs eventually. How many times do we have to see the exact same thing to know it is a problem??

 

No earthly idea why people somehow assume a guy who has been a coach in the league for 25+ years and the DC here since McD arrived will suddenly figure out a way to have your high ranked regular season defense not get smoked in the playoffs eventually but a first time OC can't figure out how to improve.

 

That would be like saying Tom Brady can get better but Kenny Pickett can't. It makes no sense. The easiest time to get better and improve at ANYTHING in life is after your first year at it.

Well, Leslie did do the same thing in Minnesota and that was 15 years ago. Odds say he never figures it out, which is why I hated the hire in the first place. He’s been awful everywhere he’s been. Frazier is a pity hire. He just gets pushed around the league then Dungy makes a call and lands him a gig.  No one has the heart to tell him he sucks.

 

Dorsey gets a pass from me. 1 year isn’t enough of a sample size. He could suck but we don’t know.

 

We know Frazier sucks!

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_Frazier

 

 

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