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The line moved significantly in the last hour or two.


BillyBilliams

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1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

The only thing Vegas “ knows” is money coming in and on who. Especially sharps money. That’s it -this time and every time. They don’t know which team is going to win more than anyone else. 

True. And the sharps must have a reason for liking the Bills. La'el being hurt? Bills getting healthy? I think the Bills win this game 8 out of 10 times on a neutral site. But I am a fan.

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2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The only thing Vegas “ knows” is money coming in and on who. Especially sharps money. That’s it -this time and every time. They don’t know which team is going to win more than anyone else. 

Of course they don’t know who’s going to win. But the point is based on where a given line is and where it moves to gives an idea as to what the professional gamblers are picking/ thinking. Based on the data. They think bill will win at least a fg 

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49 minutes ago, BillyBilliams said:

All week, the Bills were at -1.5 and 60% of the bets have been going to Cincinnati.  Despite all this, the line moved to -2 1 hour ago and now it’s at -2.5.  Does Vegas know something we don’t know and are waiting to cash in on the people taking the Bengals?

This tells me that the bets are coming in on Buffalo, this moving the line in Cincy’s favor to encourage more betting in that direction. 

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Looking at the breakdown of handle vs number of bets nothing too crazy is happening

 

The line has fluctuated from pickem to -1.5 all week

 

This late movement is probably a combo of a respected bettor making a bet on the bills plus poyer playing and maybe bad injury news for Cincy (Hubbard?)

 

If the line breaks 3 points then it becomes eye opening 

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2 minutes ago, alanvh2o said:

True. And the sharps must have a reason for liking the Bills. La'el being hurt? Bills getting healthy? I think the Bills win this game 8 out of 10 times on a neutral site. But I am a fan.

Again, the question was do they “ know something” and they don’t . Just where certain money is going and they do not look at all money equally. They’re playing the odds too, but sharps are sharps and the general public bets differently. 

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I would speculate that the changing odds corresponded to the Bills injury report.  Specifically whether Jordan Poyer would be able to play. The Bills are undefeated this year when he plays.  Early in the week it looked possible he wouldn't play.  He's still listed as questionable but I would be shocked if he didn't play, and play well.  

 

We need Poyer AND Tre White to be close to their best considering how good a QB Burrow is.  

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58 minutes ago, BillyBilliams said:

Not necessarily.  They also start giving a point or so more to take a calculated risk to get significantly paid.

 
a brief lesson on how Sportsbook a work 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish

 

sport books or bookies only care about having roughly equal bets on either side .  When this happens they make money from the vig .  They don’t take “calculated risks”

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