Would you consider the Boogie Basham pick to be a disappointment?

[The Frankish Reich]

6 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

Could you imagine if we had CMC? Good lord. 

That would've been fun.

Philosophical question: you're a life-long (in my case, 50 years) Bills fan. Would it bring you more happiness to watch your team go all-in for a 1-2 year time frame and win a Super Bowl (think Rams), and then return to mediocrity and rebuilding for another half dozen years? Or would you prefer to have a team that's in the SB hunt year after year thanks to a great QB and consistent replenishment of the talent base (think Roethlisberger's Steelers), even if you may never be a SB favorite in any given year?

Honestly, I don't know my own mind here. I kind of like following a really good team these last few years, so I'm not (yet) to the point where I want to mortgage the future. But still ...

[Victory Formation]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, for me the disappointment is that some people simply refuse to get it.

 

"It" being that evaluating picks too early is a ridiculous mistake.

 

 

 

Epenesa didn’t do much until his third year. DE is not RB, it tends to have a learning curve.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

My standard for a "good" draft is emerging with three NFL starters (meaning players who would be in the starting lineup on MOST of the 32 teams).

- Any draft where the 1st Rounder doesn't eventually start is a massive failure.  No exceptions.

- A GM should be able to find success with either his 2nd or 3rd Rounder.

- That leaves one additional starter in either the final 4 rounds or undrafted free agency.

 

This regime succeeded in doing this in 2017 (White, Dawkins, Milano), 2018 (Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Johnson, Teller) and 2019 (Oliver, Singletary, Knox).  They are the foundation for why this team has become one of the NFL's top franchises. 

 

Unfortunately, the 2020 draft does not measure up to those standards.  Stefon Diggs was obviously a huge hit.  But he's really the only solid starter we got.  Gabe Davis showed promise, but has disappointed in what was supposed to be his big breakout season.  Everyone is calling for Dane Jackson to be replaced, and I don't think he starts on most teams.  AJ Epenesa is also a backup.  Tyler Bass was a nice grab, but I don't like to count kickers.

 

2021 is looking iffy so far.  Greg Rousseau looks like a hit.  Spencer Brown has been inconsistent.  Damar Hamlin has been up and down with his big opportunity.  Boogie Basham will be lucky to reach the Epenesa's level at this point.  But like I said, I'll give them until Year 3.

 

 

 

 

Doesn't make sense.

 

Any absolute standard won't. The success of a draft depends on context.

 

Teams drafting later should be judged with that included. It's much easier to find a starter at #35, say, then at #61.

 

Teams that already have good lineups should be judged with the understanding that that this makes it harder to start the guy even if he's just as good as the guy who is starting on another team because last year's starter there was easy to beat in competition. 

 

One of the main reasons for the quick development of Milano was that he was in the lineup quickly because we didn't have much in front of him. Players can and do develop from the bench, but when they are ready to start but there's not a spot for them yet, it does slow their development.

 

A guy drafted in 2020 or 2021 on the Bills is less likely to develop quickly than a guy in an earlier Bills draft, partly because in the earlier draft he wouldn't have been the pick 5 or 10 or 15 slots earlier and he is less likely to see the field early than he was in the weaker lineups we had several years ago.

 

That's reality.

 

Oh, and saying that Gabe Davis, the #128 pick, had disappointed, it's just nuts. Spencer Brown the #93 pick, has been inconsistent in his 2nd year after off-season surgery? Um, of course he has. To assume otherwise would show unreasonable expectations.

 

 

 

Basham might be a failure. Or a success. Or fulfill expectations. We will have a much better idea a year or more down the road.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Thurman#1

[John from Riverside]

I’m trying to remember the players we could’ve had at the time Asante, Samuel junior, was still on the board I think
 

[Kwai San]

13 hours ago, uticaclub said:

If Allen is a bust, McDermott & Beane aren't here in 2022. This team is nothing special outside of Allen.

Wow - that's a wild wild wild take!  Um......u taking your meds right?

[NoSaint]

13 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I re-watched the Bills/Bears game the other day and noticed a few nice reps from Kingsley Jonathan against a bad OL.  It was impressive to see a guy off the PS flash a bit in his limited opportunities.  He was activated because Boogie Basham was injured and there was basically no drop off between an undrafted DE who bounced between PS’s and a 2nd round draft pick.

 

In my opinion, the selection of Boogie Basham pick is looking very underwhelming. I’m pretty sure the idea that like Rosseau, the idea was to give him a “redshirt” season to learn from vets like Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison to get him ready to contribute in year 2.  The idea was good but the execution was poor.  
 

But after 1 season, Basham was not ready to contribute or to start and the team ended up sinking major assets for another DE in Von Miller.  

I’m kind of wondering why they selected Basham from the start.  Pre-draft one of the things that made him appealing was his ability to be a hybrid DE/DT.  He was supposed to be “pro-ready” and not a project like Rosseau. Yet the Bills had him drop a bunch of weight to be a faster edge rusher which never was his forte.  Essentially making him a project DE.  
 

The returns of the 2nd draft pick is a rotational player who gives you the same production as a replacement level player.  

I guess there’s a chance he can improve a little bit like AJ Epinesa, but when you have street free agents like Shaq Lawson or undrafted practice squad players like Jonathan outplaying you, it’s hard to feel optimistic that a jump is coming in year 3.

i think you got “the idea” wrong. 
 

the idea is outside the top 5, much like QB, a lot of DL don’t pan out and we had several holes in our rotation. If between AJE and the other 2 we got 1 premiere guy, 1 serviceable guy and a mediocre depth player I think most GMs would consider that great

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

Skipped ahead from page 2 to wonder aloud if the Bills have taken yet another power-based college edge rusher who projected more naturally as a DE/DT flex guy (and in Epenesa's case, a solid 3-4 5-tech DE)...and asked him to dramatically redesign his body and his game to fit as a svelte DE in our 4-3, 1-gapping defense. 

 

Basham's ceiling appears to be Shaq Lawson, which is funny. But also valuable.  

That was my thought when we drafted boogie. At best, he’s Shaq Lawson.  

[BobbyC81]

19 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Have to agree…

 

Beane has been good, but his drafting has resulted in more “average” to “about average”  players than “great” to “elite” players.

And on top of it, he frequently trades away picks to move up to grab these guys.  (Cody Ford, Elam, etc)
 

Of course he hasn’t been the only GM for this team to do that (ex: Sammy Watkins, Losman, McCargo.)

Edited December 31, 2022 by BobbyC81

[ArtVandalay]

6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That would've been fun.

Philosophical question: you're a life-long (in my case, 50 years) Bills fan. Would it bring you more happiness to watch your team go all-in for a 1-2 year time frame and win a Super Bowl (think Rams), and then return to mediocrity and rebuilding for another half dozen years? Or would you prefer to have a team that's in the SB hunt year after year thanks to a great QB and consistent replenishment of the talent base (think Roethlisberger's Steelers), even if you may never be a SB favorite in any given year?

Honestly, I don't know my own mind here. I kind of like following a really good team these last few years, so I'm not (yet) to the point where I want to mortgage the future. But still ...

What makes you think giving up a couple draft picks for a pro bowl offensive player shortens your window? SF gave up a 2nd, 3rd, 4th in the up coming draft,  in 2020 we used those picks to draft AJ Epenesa, Zack Moss, and Gabe Davis -- if we had CMC instead we would be better off.  We traded a 1st for Diggs and it propelled us to new heights. 

 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

13 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

And at the time Oliver was an undersized "high motor" guy, the exact opposite of what you are looking for at the top of the draft when you have an assembly line of protptype size and physical ability to pick from. 

 

He was not just some "high motor" guy, he was graded an an elite athlete, twitchy and explosive.  I agree he is undersized.  I am not going to pretend to be a draft expert but I will look at the totality of work Beane and McDermott have and I conclude they have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  My point about hindsight is more that any fan of any team can go back and find players they should have drafted instead of a guy they do have.  You win some you lose some, the Oliver pick was not some reach, he was graded out about where he was picked.  Like all picks it came with upside and risk.   Someone could show an assembly line of prototype size/productivity guys at the college level that did not work out.

 

Is Ed Oliver some kind of bust?  I will say we can expect more production by year 4 than he has produced given his draft position.  The lack of production is party due to a slow NFL start and injuries.  He makes impact plays at times.  No one will mistake him for Donald but he is a good player, one that can help this team win the SB this year.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

19 hours ago, Airseven said:

Yes. Nothing against Basham. He slid in the draft for a reason and he’s performed about as projected. I was disappointed Beane took him.

How are you coping with Tua and his 82nd concussion of the season?

[Buckets]

20 hours ago, JohnNord said:

You’ve never heard the term “street free agent?”

Not really.

[Don Otreply]

I’m disappointed that neither he nor the Frenchman have attained all pro status, after all the are in their second season…, 

[BearNorth]

Since 2017 - First and Second Round

 

2017      1             27           Tre'Davious White - All Pro before injury

2018      1             16           Tremaine Edmunds - Pro Bowl

2018      1             7             Josh Allen - Top 3 QB in the league

2019      1             9             Ed Oliver - Top 25% of DT's

2021      1             30           Gregory Rousseau - 2nd Yr Top 15% of Edge

2022      1             23           Kaiir Elam - Rookie, below average CB

2017      2             63           Dion Dawkins top 25% of OT's

2017      2             37           Zay Jones - Traded - currently top 40% of WR's

2019      2             38           Cody Ford - Traded - bottom 10% of OT's

2020      2             54           A.J. Epenesa - Bottom 20% of Edge

2021      2             61            Carlos Basham Jr. - Middle of the pack Edge

2022      2             63           James Cook - Top 1/3 of RB as rookie, top 4 in his age group.

 

I would say busts are Cody Ford and AJE.  Jury is out on Elam. 

 

League Wide there are 640 1st and 2nd round choices in a 5 year cycle,

 

Bills have several stars and a number of solid if not spectacular contributors.

 

Not every first or second rounder is going to be an all-pro or pro-bowler.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

What makes you think giving up a couple draft picks for a pro bowl offensive player shortens your window? SF gave up a 2nd, 3rd, 4th in the up coming draft,  in 2020 we used those picks to draft AJ Epenesa, Zack Moss, and Gabe Davis -- if we had CMC instead we would be better off.  We traded a 1st for Diggs and it propelled us to new heights. 

 

 

Behind this line, there is no guarantee that CMC would be any better

[ganesh]

21 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Since 2017 - First and Second Round

 

I would say busts are Cody Ford and AJE.  Jury is out on Elam. 

 

 

You really had to do that ?   A rookie player that was picked at the end of the 1st round ??  Go Bills !

[IndyMark]

27 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

2019      1             9             Ed Oliver - Top 25% of DT's

 

 

Top 25%? I have to think you meant Top 25 and at that, that would be a huge stretch.  Top 25% would mean Oliver, at best, would be (depending on schemes which admittedly I have no sense of the league wide dominant formats) in the top 12? And at worst be in the top 16? 

 

No. Way.  Here is why:

 

Aaron Donald, Cameron Heyward, Chris Jones, DeForest Buckner, Vita Vea, Jonathan Allen, Jeffery Simmons, Leonard Williams, D.J. Reader, Christian Wilkins, Fletcher Cox, Akiem Hicks, Dalvin Tomlinson, Quinnen Williams, Zach Sieler, Christian Barmore......and that is just a quick review. I do not follow teams super closely, so I am sure I am missing some gems in there, yet the point remains does any true football fan look at the above list and go "Yes, I would take Oliver over him?".

 

I cannot imagine a football world where that is the case.  Ed is likely barely top 30, maybe top 32.  He is an average DT, not horrible not bad just average.

 

I feel there is some hometown bias in appraising his production. Sure, he makes impact plays at times, but he is also completely absent and blown off the ball more often than not. The most recent Miami game is a perfect illustration of his absence; he was run at and over during the game. Opposing offenses spend zero amount of time accounting for him in a blocking scheme. 

 

To be clear, he is a Bill and I cheer for him like I do all Bills and he seems like a good dude who tries, but we need considerably more from that position. People argued last year he needs a true 1 tech next to him for him to shine. Ok, see DaQuan Jones. That box is checked and while he has made a step forward this year, it is a modest step. He needs too many things around him to be ideal for him to shine and that in and of itself equates to him being average.

 

Go Bills!

[Bookie Man]

Was not impressed with him at Wake Forest. Not contributing enough to warrant 2nd round status. 

[ArtVandalay]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

He was not just some "high motor" guy, he was graded an an elite athlete, twitchy and explosive.  I agree he is undersized.  I am not going to pretend to be a draft expert but I will look at the totality of work Beane and McDermott have and I conclude they have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  My point about hindsight is more that any fan of any team can go back and find players they should have drafted instead of a guy they do have.  You win some you lose some, the Oliver pick was not some reach, he was graded out about where he was picked.  Like all picks it came with upside and risk.   Someone could show an assembly line of prototype size/productivity guys at the college level that did not work out.

 

Is Ed Oliver some kind of bust?  I will say we can expect more production by year 4 than he has produced given his draft position.  The lack of production is party due to a slow NFL start and injuries.  He makes impact plays at times.  No one will mistake him for Donald but he is a good player, one that can help this team win the SB this year.

Right, Oliver did test exceptionally, even though he was undersized, and he was drafted on par with expectations, i don't dispute that.... but this team has an obsession with undersized guys to a fault.  It's part of the reason i was so excited they drafted a guy like Rousseau to begin with.

 

The latest extreme example being Terell Bernard, just good lord, what are they even thinking. He doesn't even have the athletic profile nevermind size. Or for years you look at our WR corp and everyone was under 6 foot and didn't have big time athletics to compensate, then they got Diggs via trade but still, no investment in a WR with big wingspan, closest we have is 6'2" Gabe Davis and his 58th percentile arm length. 

 

I just think it's exciting to see them take the guy with the measurables and he work out and be a difference maker. His length creates so many issues for teams. 

Edited December 31, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[John from Riverside]

38 minutes ago, IndyMark said:

Top 25%? I have to think you meant Top 25 and at that, that would be a huge stretch.  Top 25% would mean Oliver, at best, would be (depending on schemes which admittedly I have no sense of the league wide dominant formats) in the top 12? And at worst be in the top 16? 

 

No. Way.  Here is why:

 

Aaron Donald, Cameron Heyward, Chris Jones, DeForest Buckner, Vita Vea, Jonathan Allen, Jeffery Simmons, Leonard Williams, D.J. Reader, Christian Wilkins, Fletcher Cox, Akiem Hicks, Dalvin Tomlinson, Quinnen Williams, Zach Sieler, Christian Barmore......and that is just a quick review. I do not follow teams super closely, so I am sure I am missing some gems in there, yet the point remains does any true football fan look at the above list and go "Yes, I would take Oliver over him?".

 

I cannot imagine a football world where that is the case.  Ed is likely barely top 30, maybe top 32.  He is an average DT, not horrible not bad just average.

 

I feel there is some hometown bias in appraising his production. Sure, he makes impact plays at times, but he is also completely absent and blown off the ball more often than not. The most recent Miami game is a perfect illustration of his absence; he was run at and over during the game. Opposing offenses spend zero amount of time accounting for him in a blocking scheme. 

 

To be clear, he is a Bill and I cheer for him like I do all Bills and he seems like a good dude who tries, but we need considerably more from that position. People argued last year he needs a true 1 tech next to him for him to shine. Ok, see DaQuan Jones. That box is checked and while he has made a step forward this year, it is a modest step. He needs too many things around him to be ideal for him to shine and that in and of itself equates to him being average.

 

Go Bills!

There are some guys in your defense of tackle list that I would not take over Oliver