Re-visiting the 2021 Draft - the EDGE class

[GunnerBill]

In the run up to the 2021 NFL Draft the consensus was that the spot where the Bills needed to add a young difference maker the most was at defensive end. Their starting ends in the 2020 season that ended in AFCCG defeat in Kansas City were Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, both into their 30s. The backups were AJ Epenesa who had struggled to make an impact as a rookie 2nd rounder and Trent Murphy who was a vet backup at best. 

 

The issue for the Bills was that the edge class was lacking in top end talent and the views on the top guys were pretty jumbled, especially beyond the consensus top 2. Just to take a few examples: 

 

Draftek's top 5: #1 Jaelan Phillips (#16 overall); #2 Kwity Paye (#17 overall); #3 Azeez Ojulari (#18 overall); #4 Joseph Ossai (#35 overall); #5 Greg Rousseau (#36 overall).

Matt Miller's top 5: #1 Jaelan Phillips (#16 overall); #2 Kwity Paye (#19 overall); #3 Joseph Ossai (#27 overall); #4 Azeez Ojulari (#28 overall); #5 Jayson Oweh (#37 overall). 

Bucky Brooks's top 5: #1 Jaelan Phillips (n/a); #2 Kwity Paye (n/a); #3 Greg Rousseau (n/a); #4 Boogie Basham (n/a); #5 Joe Tryon (n/a).

My top 5: #1 Kwity Paye (#22 overall); #2 Jaelan Phillips (#24 overall); #3 Greg Rousseau (#26 overall); #4 Joseph Ossai (#32 overall); #5 Ronnie Perkins (#45 overall). 

 

When draft day came Jaelen Phillips came off the board first at #18 to Miami and then Paye followed shortly afterwards going #21 to the Colts. The third edge defender off the board was a total curve ball as the New Orleans Saints chose Payton Turner out of Houston at #28. The remainder of the class was there for the Bills to choose from at #30 and as we know they selected Greg Rousseau. A further 4 edge players then went before the Bills double dipped to take Boogie Basham at #61 in round two. Given we are nearly at the end of the second season and there has been a lot of chatter about Groot's strong season recently I thought it was worth re-visiting that class and looking at how they have all performed. So here goes - in the order they were slected:

 

#18 - Jaelan Phillips - Miami:

17 starts

15.5 sacks; 57 pressures

16 tackles for loss (TFL)

3 passes defensed

1 forced fumble

 

#21 - Kwity Paye - Indianapolis:

24 starts

10 sacks; 30 pressures

12 TFL

1 pass defensed 

1 forced fumble

 

#28 - Payton Turner - New Orleans:

0 starts

3 sacks; 12 pressures

8 TFL

0 passes defensed

0 forced fumbles

 

#30 - Greg Rousseu - Buffalo:

28 starts

11 sacks; 40 pressures

16 TFL

8 passes defensed; 1 interception

2 forced fumbles

 

#31 - Jayson Oweh - Baltimore

6 starts

7.5 sacks; 41 pressures

11 TFL

1 pass defensed

4 forced fumbles

 

#32 - Joe Tryon - Tampa Bay:

19 starts

8 sacks; 42 pressures

10 TFL

5 passes defensed

0 forced fumbles

 

#50 - Azeez Ojulari - New York Giants:

17 starts

12.5 sacks; 39 pressures

10 TFL

3 passes defensed

4 forced fumbles

 

#54 - Dayo Odeyingbo - Indianapolis:

2 starts

4 sacks; 16 pressures

3 TFL

0 passes defensed

1 forced fumble

 

#61 - Boogie Basham - Buffalo:

0 starts

4.5 sacks; 17 pressures

5 TFL

2 passes defensed; 1 interception

0 forced fumbles

 

#69 - Joseph Ossai - Cincinnati (*missed entire rookie season with an ACL tear):

0 starts

2 sacks; 9 pressures

2 TFL

1 pass defensed

0 forced fumbles

 

Ronnie Perkins (the only guy to feature in one of the top 5s above who I haven't broken down) has spent two years on IR having been picked by the Patriots at the end of round 3 and is yet to play a down in the NFL. 

 

So what can we conclude? I think firstly that the draft consensus that there was no superstar pass rusher was probably right. However, there were multiple good players in the class despite that. I think if you were re-drafting today Jaelan Phillips would still be the first guy off the board (and would probably go a bit higher - one of the reasons he didn't go higher originally was concussion concerns). Greg Rousseau would likely be the 2nd guy selected and would be a top 20 pick. Ojulari would probably go next, and be a first rounder, though his issue on draft day would still hinder his value a little in that he is really a specific fit as a 3-4 OLB rather than someone able to play with their hand in the dirt on a regular basis in a 4 man front. Likewise Tryon is much more of a 3-4 fit but would still go roughly where he did I think - at the end of the first and I think Kwity Paye who was the one I felt best suited a 4-3 would still probably be a first rounder but only just. As for Joseph Ossai - his moment is about to come. He had a career high 50% of the defensive snaps last week for Cincy and with Hubbard and Hendrikson down he might be about to assume a critical role in their Superbowl chase. 

 

Finally, with my Bills fandom hat on, in the first round Brandon Beane made a very good decision. His second round pick of Basham has yet to prove its value in the same way. The Bills said that Basham was on their list for their first pick (although hinted that might have been with a small trade down into early round 2). I think he would have been very poor value earlier. 

[LeGOATski]

The name "Boogie Basham" makes up for it a little bit....

[finn]

Creed Humphrey was sitting there in the second round when Beane went for Boogie. Could have played guard for the Bills and saved the team a lot of grief and money. 

[SoCal Deek]

 Basham looked completely disinterested on many plays Saturday night. 

[US Egg]

Phillips is looking elite, Rousseau is mirroring him.

 

I can accept that.

[KDIGGZ]

Jaelan Phillips looks like the best of the bunch and has really turned it on since they signed Chubb. He's a future pro bowler of he keeps it up. I like Groot's long arms for deflecting or rerouting passes. I admittedly wanted Oweh but looks like Groot is starting to come into his own under the guidance of Von Miller and becoming a guy that can get to the QB

[The Firebaugh Kid]

11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

 Basham looked completely disinterested on many plays Saturday night. 

Got pushed all over the field. Terrible 

[Logic]

Thanks for the post.

I was a bit dubious about Rousseau ever being more than a plus edge setter who chips in 3-5 sacks a year. So far, I'm very pleasantly surprised. I think having Von Miller in his ear has been a tremendous help. It's also important to remember that this is just his third year EVER playing defensive end, at any level of football. Pretty remarkable.

As far as Boogies goes...Creed Humphrey looked like the better pick then, and it definitely looks like the better pick now. I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at the time because pass rusher is such a premium position and was such a big need, and because Mitch Morse was still just 29 years old. Knowing what we know now, though, about the Bills' continued interior o-line struggles, Morse's latest concussion, and Boogie's ineffectiveness, it sure would've been nice to have an All-Pro lineman with that pick instead of a guy who -- at least so far -- looks like he doesn't belong in the NFL.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Logic

[MrEpsYtown]

I remember a lot of people wanting Oweh that year and being disappointed that we picked Rousseau. I really liked Javonte Williams and Asante Samuel. 

 

And I believe the rumors were that we were going to choose Eric Stokes who the Packers grabbed. How is Stokes doing ?

[mushypeaches]

Boogie needs to figure out if he wants to put the effort into being a stronger, more disciplined, and more motivated player.

 

Having Shaq Lawson on the team as an example of a similar type of player who didn't have much production in his first 2-3 years either might help him

 

Or he might just be John McCargo 2.0

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

Boogie needs to figure out if he wants to put the effort into being a stronger, more disciplined, and more motivated player.

 

Having Shaq Lawson on the team as an example of a similar type of player who didn't have much production in his first 2-3 years either might help him

 

Or he might just be John McCargo 2.0

From what I’ve seen…I’m going with McCargo. Basham has been around BOTH Von Miller and Shaq Lawson all year for heavens sake! 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I remember a lot of people wanting Oweh that year and being disappointed that we picked Rousseau. I really liked Javonte Williams and Asante Samuel. 

 

And I believe the rumors were that we were going to choose Eric Stokes who the Packers grabbed. How is Stokes doing ?

 

Was solid as a rookie. Been awful and then hurt this year. 123 passer rating when targeted this season. 

[billsfan905]

Too early to tell 2 years in for Defensive Ends. Also need to consider snap counts. Buffalo rotates their DL more than any other team. If Groot never left the field he'd have significantly better numbers. Hopefully one of Basham or Epenesa figures it out or we'll be back to the drawing board with Von out most of 2023.

[MrEpsYtown]

59 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

Boogie needs to figure out if he wants to put the effort into being a stronger, more disciplined, and more motivated player.

 

Having Shaq Lawson on the team as an example of a similar type of player who didn't have much production in his first 2-3 years either might help him

 

Or he might just be John McCargo 2.0

 

He may be AJ Epenesa 2.0. Just doesn't have that bend or explosion. Perhaps he would be better suited in a 2 gap type of defense. 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Jaelan Phillips looks like the best of the bunch and has really turned it on since they signed Chubb. He's a future pro bowler of he keeps it up. I like Groot's long arms for deflecting or rerouting passes. I admittedly wanted Oweh but looks like Groot is starting to come into his own under the guidance of Von Miller and becoming a guy that can get to the QB

 

Rousseau isn't far behind and has far more upside potential, IMHO since he only played 1 year in college, put up huge numbers but was totally raw, then entered the draft after not playing at all in that year due to COVID.  Rousseau is also one of the best run defenders and edge setters in the NFL bar nobody.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Phillips has overcome a laundry list of red flags..........injury(specifically concussion) prone........disinterested in football(retired to focus on music).........gutless in run defense(college tape was pitiful)...........he's now a really good player and Walter Payton MOTY candidate.   Which is extraordinary.

 

And he looks the part doing it.

 

Rousseau doesn't look the part.............and yet...........somehow he has the same amount of sacks as Phillips this season.........while playing just 377 total snaps.........307 LESS snaps than Phillips.    

 

If it wasn't already..........during that Dolphins game where they proved they couldn't set the edge without him on the field..........it officially became time that the Bills rotate Rousseau a lot less..........he is too good to swap out with any of the 3 pedestrians they have in the mix there right now.

 

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

If it wasn't already..........during that Dolphins game where they proved they couldn't set the edge without him on the field..........it officially became time that the Bills rotate Rousseau a lot less..........he is too good to swap out with any of the 3 pedestrians they have in the mix there right now.

 

 

They had some edge setting issues Saturday even with Groot in there. But I agree he is better at it. Boogie and AJ suck at edge setting. AJ has actually had a productive year as a rusher, he has 5.5 sacks and has flashed at times. But it still isn't enough for year 3 of a 2nd round pick and he is awful on any play where he doesn't win quickly and get into thw backfield. As for Boogie.... no idea what he does. No idea what he's good at. No idea how he wins in this league. I kind of expected that as an edge rusher. I am surprised how poor he has been vs the run.

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They had some edge setting issues Saturday even with Groot in there. But I agree he is better at it. Boogie and AJ suck at edge setting. AJ has actually had a productive year as a rusher, he has 5.5 sacks and has flashed at times. But it still isn't enough for year 3 of a 2nd round pick and he is awful on any play where he doesn't win quickly and get into thw backfield. As for Boogie.... no idea what he does. No idea what he's good at. No idea how he wins in this league. I kind of expected that as an edge rusher. I am surprised how poor he has been vs the run.

 

 

Better?

 

He tied for the league lead in run stops by a DL last season with 32.   As a rotational player.

 

So yeah.........he's literally better than just about any edge player in the NFL at setting the edge and stopping ball carriers when they run his way.

 

Again........he's played only 55% of the snaps that Phillips has this season and has produced the same amount of sacks.......more TFL......and of course knocks down more passes.  

 

And he makes tackles and QB hits at a higher rate per snap.

 

I appreciate your analysis but I think you should acknowledge that your comparison between the two was a bit skewed without weighing playing time at all.

 

As I said from the outset.........Rousseau is never going to look flashy doing it...........but he makes more plays than anyone from that class...........he just doesn't get enough opportunities because of the rotation.    

 

A rotation which should largely go away over the next two seasons as they focus more on the offensive side of the ball.

 

Groot could potentially be the highest paid DE in the NFL(at least briefly) when he signs his next contract...........they can't pay the going rate for a 23-24 year old prime stud DE for him to only play 55%-60% of snaps.

 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Better?

 

He tied for the league lead in run stops by a DL last season with 32.   As a rotational player.

 

So yeah.........he's literally better than just about any edge player in the NFL at setting the edge and stopping ball carriers when they run his way.

 

Again........he's played only 55% of the snaps that Phillips has this season and has produced the same amount of sacks.......more TFL......and of course knocks down more passes.  

 

And he makes tackles and QB hits at a higher rate per snap.

 

I appreciate your analysis but I think you should acknowledge that your comparison between the two was a bit skewed without weighing playing time at all.

 

As I said from the outset.........Rousseau is never going to look flashy doing it...........but he makes more plays than anyone from that class...........he just doesn't get enough opportunities because of the rotation.    

 

A rotation which should largely go away over the next two seasons as they focus more on the offensive side of the ball.

 

Groot could potentially be the highest paid DE in the NFL(at least briefly) when he signs his next contract...........they can't pay the going rate for a 23-24 year old prime stud DE for him to only play 55%-60% of snaps.

 

 

I don't disagree with any of that not sure what you were taking issue with? Rousseau has been an excellent run defender while he has been here but on Saturday it isn't true to say that all their issues setting the edge were when he was out. They had some struggles even when he was in there. 

 

AJ and Boogie suck at it. 

[RocCityRoller]

16 hours ago, finn said:

Creed Humphrey was sitting there in the second round when Beane went for Boogie. Could have played guard for the Bills and saved the team a lot of grief and money. 

 

Don't get me started! Worse yet Humphrey went to KC.... F#%K

 

Rousseau has been pretty much what I expect. An athletic edge setter who can get 8-10 sacks a season with or without above average help on the other side. Aok with that.