Devin Singletary not scoring a TD with 34 seconds left

[Rochesterfan]

35 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not giving them 30 seconds. How many times do I have to say it? I'm giving them 5-10 with no timeouts.

 

So explain what your plan because it makes no sense.  So let’s say he got the 1st down and the Dolphins stopped the clock with 34 seconds left.

 

1st and goal.  What are you play choices? What do you do if stopped are you kicking the FG?  
 

What is the plan because just saying you are scoring a TD with under 10 seconds is not possible with 1 play so we need to understand where this beautiful mind plan is coming from.

 

Two things to remember - 1 - the Dolphins are probably trying to help you score on the first play, but would most likely be trying to hold up the RB and strip the ball on any subsequent plays.

 

2- If you do get stopped - what is you plan to score are you calling your final timeout at 0:02 seconds and kicking the FG?

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Rochesterfan

[Rochesterfan]

@BullBuchanan Glad to see you can complain, but not provide any insight - just a statement - “I would have scored a TD with less than 10 seconds” - Good for you - no idea how or what plan if it failed.

 

If you are just going to make a statement up - then I would of scored 40 more points and it would have been moot.

 

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[Doc]

I've never seen more Sunday (and Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday) Morning Quarterbacking over a play that worked perfectly. 

[mjt328]

What is the best thing that Miami does?

Throwing up a prayer, letting Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle catch it, then watching them outrace the defenders to the endzone.

 

What is the best thing that Buffalo does?

Finds ridiculous ways to lose games they have a 99.999999999% chance of winning, with only seconds left.

 

I completely understand the fear of missing the field goal in that weather, because I was nervous until it went in.  But I really can't blame the coaching staff for leaving zero on the clock for the Dolphins.

[YattaOkasan]

So many pages and i finally can describe why FG. 
 

both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails.
 

Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me.  The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements.

 

For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point. 

 

this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen. 

[wagon127]

If the bills win the super bowl this way, are people going to still be angry?

[mikemac2001]

2 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

If the bills win the super bowl this way, are people going to still be angry?

Yes I’m angry just thinking about it 

[Orlando Tim]

On 12/19/2022 at 12:08 PM, BullBuchanan said:

It was the wrong move in that situation. I understand he wanted to avoid giving the Dolphins a chance, but there was a superior option. If Devin goes down after the first down, they're in a position now where they can bleed the rest of the time off and try to score a TD on a handoff with a few seconds on the clock.

A field goal in that situation is extremely risky given the snap, hold and kick in slick conditions. Yes, it worked, but that doesn't mean it was a high probability play and I'd hate to see that become the new standard operating procedure in similar situations when a touchdown is available.

Can you explain the " extremely risky" part? If the hold is not perfect still goes through, if the kick motion is not perfect then the ball still is between uprights, if snap is off a bit then it is still good. Where are you getting a 20 yard feild goal is risky. Only if all three are messy does the kick go bad, which is 1% chance, even in weather. 

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

So many pages and i finally can describe why FG. 
 

both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails.
 

Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me.  The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements.

 

For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point. 

 

this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen. 

Your analysis of the situation is correct. 
But the determination that it was the “right” decision is dependent on the percentages assigned. 
 

Where did you get those numbers from?

 

I could just as easily say in a snowstorm there is a 5% chance of missing the kick and a 2% chance of a TD with 40 sec left. Then it’s the wrong decision. 

[SinceThe70s]

12 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

Can you explain the " extremely risky" part? If the hold is not perfect still goes through, if the kick motion is not perfect then the ball still is between uprights, if snap is off a bit then it is still good. Where are you getting a 20 yard feild goal is risky. Only if all three are messy does the kick go bad, which is 1% chance, even in weather. 

 

I would never go anywhere near  "extremely risky"   but a botched snap was a risk that the Bills thought was better then defending 6 points (can't assume an XP if you don't assume the FG) with 31 seconds left. In the moment I was in favor of taking the sure points, but I understand why they chose the FG attempt.

[Don Otreply]

On 12/21/2022 at 10:52 AM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Good post. Can't believe this is still being debated

 

 

The average IQ in America is 100, half the populations IQ is under 100…, kinda says it all…, 

 

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Your analysis of the situation is correct. 
But the determination that it was the “right” decision is dependent on the percentages assigned. 
 

Where did you get those numbers from?

 

I could just as easily say in a snowstorm there is a 5% chance of missing the kick and a 2% chance of a TD with 40 sec left. Then it’s the wrong decision. 

 

Agree, but the historical data for FG and XP when they were at the 2 was close to 99% all time including weather - so 1% is about right.

 

For the Dolphins scoring a TD - on the season which is all you can use - they have 10 TDs on drives of 6 plays or less and greater than 50-60 yards.  That is out of just under 140 drives or about 7% on the year.  34 seconds and 1 timeout should be about 6 plays theoretically.  Plus earlier in the game the Dolphins already had a 3 play 72 yard TD against this defense.

 

So based upon historical FG data and current Dolphins drive data - it was significantly better percentage wise to kill time and kick the FG.

 

You never know how things will turn out and the Analytics had it close, but between 0.5 and 1% better kicking the FG, but it also kept the Bills in total control of the outcome and I think that means more than anything to a control freak (not a bad thing) Head Coach.

 

 

[wagon127]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Your analysis of the situation is correct. 
But the determination that it was the “right” decision is dependent on the percentages assigned. 
 

Where did you get those numbers from?

 

I could just as easily say in a snowstorm there is a 5% chance of missing the kick and a 2% chance of a TD with 40 sec left. Then it’s the wrong decision. 

In the last 5 years, I can name alot times where the bills gave up a score with less then two minutes to go in a half. When is the last time the bills missed a winning field goal less then 25 yards?

 

 Nothing is 100% in football ever, so you go with the next best thing. If bass misses the field goal, there is a 50% chance buffalo has the ball on the next play from scrimmage. Every other scenario involves the bills willingly giving the ball back to Miami.

Edited December 23, 2022 by wagon127

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, wagon127 said:

In the last 5 years, I can name alot times where the bills gave up a score with less then two minutes to go in a half. When is the last time the bills missed a winning field goal less then 25 yards?

 

 Nothing is 100% in football ever, so you go with the next best thing. If bass misses the field goal, there is a 50% chance buffalo has the ball on the next play from scrimmage. Every other scenario involves the bills willingly giving the ball back to Miami.

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Just now, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

All I can say is that guideline really hasn't worked out well for the Bills historically. 

 

I welcome the new change leaving the other team totally helpless and unable to even touch the ball on offense or a kick return. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Never in doubt! 

Phins were helpless.../thread. 😏 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

Can you explain the " extremely risky" part? If the hold is not perfect still goes through, if the kick motion is not perfect then the ball still is between uprights, if snap is off a bit then it is still good. Where are you getting a 20 yard feild goal is risky. Only if all three are messy does the kick go bad, which is 1% chance, even in weather. 

 

Exactly. The kick was so short that even if Bass slips a bit the chances are it is still good. 

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

 

I don't think it is debateable at all. There was a very clear optimum way to play it. The Bills executed that way perfectly. 

[Orlando Tim]

6 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

Should Nick Chubb have scored his last TD for the Browns against the Jets? Sometimes you need to play the clock as well. I do agree that this one is not 100% like that one but playing the odds is the kick. 

[Doc]

7 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Ahh. If you score a TD there is 100% chance that 6 points go on the board for you. That’s the rule. 
 

Lookit, I agree it’s a debatable decision. It seems to me that too many coaches try to overthink situations. 
 

Score points whenever you have a chance is a good general guideline. 

 

Why put your STs and defense through more reps and chance for injury, though?  You wind the clock down to 2 seconds and kick what should be an automatic field goal, game over.  And they cleared the field for Bass.  What more could you ask for?

[section122]

So the board has now moved to complaining about decisions that work out too?

 

Cmon man! This is getting ridiculous. 

 

Worried about 3rd and longs

Worried we arent blowing teams out

Worried about the o line

Worried about diggs becoming a diva (seriously hasn't this been put to rest?!)

Complaining about ed oliver

 

That is just the first page!

 

Not to mention the complaining about dorsey and his 2nd most ypg and 4th most ppg offense

 

Or the complaining about frazier and his 9th ranked ypg and 2 ranked ppg defense

 

Or the complaining about mcd and 11-3 afc #1 seed with the highest strength of victory, incredibly difficult schedule, and handling a myriad of injuries.

 

Some of you need to cheer the ***** up and move on from 13 seconds.  Sheesh.