Arkady Renko Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, Jamie Nails said: Our very own @MarkVaderr announced this pick. I blame him Last visited 2003? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwhit34 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 I found this data of average number of regular season NFL games played by draft pick by round: Round Avg. # Reg. Season Games 1 62.3 2 56.3 3 48.1 4 44.4 5 40.5 6 32.5 7 28.1 I thought it was interesting that round 3-5 were separated by only 7.6 games and that there was a big drop from round 5 to 6 (8.3 games). One way to think of it is for every 6th rounder that plays 4 seasons there is 1 who never plays. 6th rounders get about 2 years. So Stevenson to some degree has been an average 6th rounder - been in league 2 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Nails Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, Arkady Renko said: Last visited 2003? sorry this @Mark Vader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoolhouserock Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said: Then why do they get credit when a late round pick is successful? 1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said: If GMs are immune from criticism for failing on a late round pick, they shouldn’t get credit when a late round pick becomes successful. It is a matter of expectation versus outcome. It is unreasonable to treat the expectations and outcomes of a first round pick as being equal to those of a sixth round pick. GMs are not immune to criticism for failing on late round picks. It is because the expectation for those picks is so small, that a failure receives lessened criticism and a large success receives greater praise. The expectation of success for a 6th round pick is, in my opinion, so small that a complete failure would not warrant the label of “bust”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said: The expectation of success for a 6th round pick is, in my opinion, so small that a complete failure would not warrant the label of “bust”. You can't measure this stuff in a vacuum. Take fifth round pick Justin Shorter: The following four receivers were more highly touted going into the draft than Shorter. If all of them went on to big NFL succcess, and Shorter did not, it would be fair to say Beane made a meaningful mistake. If Shorter and all the WR's picked after him fail in the NFL, one might complain it was a bad positional pick, but hard to complain more than that. 21) Parker Washington, Penn State Round 6, Pick 185 | Jaguars 22) Kayshon Boutte, LSU Round 6, Pick 187 | Patriots 23) Trey Palmer, Nebraska Round 6, Pick 191 | Buccaneers 24) A.T. Perry, Wake Forest Round 6, Pick 195 | Saints Edited May 9, 2023 by Chaos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Out come the Beane haters who will do anything in their power to rag on him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 2 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said: Then why do they get credit when a late round pick is successful? Because the percentage chance of a 6th rounder hitting is so low. If you get one of the few that does you deserve credit. It is the inverse of round 1. Ed Oliver is a good football player. He'd start on like 28 of the 32 NFL teams. But he was a top 10 pick so you don't get credit for that, because in round 1 you are expected to draft starters. You get heavily criticised in round 1 if you draft a bust. You only get credit if you draft a stud. In round 6 if you draft a bust nobody cares, that is the expectation. If you draft a starter that is the exception so you get credit. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Why at this point does anyone care about Muffquez? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said: Why at this point does anyone care about Muffquez? good question that needs to be answered just not by me! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 8 hours ago, Araiza Curse said: If GMs are immune from criticism for failing on a late round pick, they shouldn’t get credit when a late round pick becomes successful. LOL what? Below is a data for late round picks who become regular starters. Doesn’t specify if they are good starters…just starters. This is a 10 year period. As you can see, the odds a severely stacked against 5th-7th round picks to start…. even make the team. The reason GM’s get credit for finding a late round gem is because they beat overwhelming odds. The reason its not criticized is because the vast majority of the times they don’t start so its the norm. 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 I really hope they sign him again. that guy is willing to run through a brick wall for this team. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: I really hope they sign him again. that guy is willing to run through a brick wall for this team. Just what we need, Bump Bailey.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said: Why at this point does anyone care about Muffquez? Wanted a distraction from those concerned about Josh’s fashion choices. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 9 hours ago, Chaos said: You can't measure this stuff in a vacuum. Take fifth round pick Justin Shorter: The following four receivers were more highly touted going into the draft than Shorter. If all of them went on to big NFL succcess, and Shorter did not, it would be fair to say Beane made a meaningful mistake. If Shorter and all the WR's picked after him fail in the NFL, one might complain it was a bad positional pick, but hard to complain more than that. 21) Parker Washington, Penn State Round 6, Pick 185 | Jaguars 22) Kayshon Boutte, LSU Round 6, Pick 187 | Patriots 23) Trey Palmer, Nebraska Round 6, Pick 191 | Buccaneers 24) A.T. Perry, Wake Forest Round 6, Pick 195 | Saints really wanted AT Perry. Shorter has promise, we’ll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 1 hour ago, RyanC883 said: really wanted AT Perry. Shorter has promise, we’ll see. Shorter is all based on promise, but the promise is a legitimately awesome player 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said: LOL what? Below is a data for late round picks who become regular starters. Doesn’t specify if they are good starters…just starters. This is a 10 year period. As you can see, the odds a severely stacked against 5th-7th round picks to start…. even make the team. The reason GM’s get credit for finding a late round gem is because they beat overwhelming odds. The reason its not criticized is because the vast majority of the times they don’t start so its the norm. 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round So what I'm seeing is rounds 5/6 is a sweet spot to fish for TEs heh. 15 hours ago, wppete said: Stevenson goes down as another bust draft pick by Beane. What a waste. I'll bet $5 you were one of the first to call Shorter a "reach" in the 5th round. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 On 12/16/2022 at 12:00 PM, FilthyBeast said: Because if another WR we chose to dump in the favor of keeping a worthless bum like McKenzie on the roster at all costs produces elsewhere it puts Beane and this coaching staff under a bigger microscope. Must be why Beane is selling his house in OP…, 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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