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Chiefs at Bengals Game thread - 4:25 PM Kickoff


BuffaloBill

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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not going to argue with you, you are free to believe what you wish

 

As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite.

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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite.

Cincy lost all momentum after the failed 4th and goal... analytics don't know sh!t about momentum and how it affects games

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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

As are you. I just wish people would stop acting like this is settled science. Like if you think taking points is the right choice in most situations you're a backwoods hillbilly. I've evaluated the logic behind the bot and decided it isn't right. I've also seen too many teams kill themselves being too aggressive early on and rarely the opposite.

Again- the bot isn't right or wrong. The boat is simple presenting a set of percentages from which you can decide upon a course of action

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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Again- the bot isn't right or wrong. The boat is simple presenting a set of percentages from which you can decide upon a course of action

 

One last thing I'll say on this because I don't want to take over the thread - You drive all the way down to the 5 yard line and come away with 0 points. That's the risk you take in going for it there, in a game where every possession matters. I don't care what the official probability of converting 4th and 1 is. You need a lot more data than that to evaluate hyperspecific decisions. And when the decision might end up costing you an entire possession's worth of points I don't think the risk is worth it.

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