Johnnycage46 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Process said: I know it wasnt a catch but Chase/Higgins combo is not fair. Bengals are blowing this Could be down 31 to 20 soon. Kicking FGs vs Chiefs TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, UKBillFan said: We're still waiting for a fumble to bounce our way and we've gone through week thirteen. Ha kinda true...that Brisset fumble was critical a few weeks ago. But get your point. Kc seems to get a lot of fortuitous bounces, Cincy just needs 1 stop coming up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, UKBillFan said: We're still waiting for a fumble to bounce our way and we've gone through week thirteen. It sounds like we are due! Our plan is to save them up for the playoffs. It’s 4-D chess we are playing! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherMan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Do Chiefs play insanely clean football or are they getting ball washed by these officials? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Positive Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Process said: I know it wasnt a catch but Chase/Higgins combo is not fair. Bengals are blowing this One of them will be gone soon enough. They're all on rookie contracts and Mike Brown is very much a "cash to the cap" kind of owner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: This is all results oriented thinking it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making No, I've explained how even within the bot's own logic it is not a given that going for it is the right choice. What the bot actually tells us is the individual win percentage of 4 different outcomes - going for it and 1) converting or 2) failing, or kicking a FG and 3) converting or 4) failing. Everybody agrees that the FG there is basically a gimme. So using the bot's logic you're actually deciding on whether you want to accept a win probability of 65% for free, or risk ending up with a 59% win probability to try and get a 74% win probability. It is a totally valid belief that accepting the free points makes more sense than taking the risk. Whatever historical records show you don't actually know the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 attempt in this specific moment against this specific defense. You do know that the FG try is almost 100% guaranteed. Edited December 4, 2022 by HappyDays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fallser Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Stripped! Kelce fumbled!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 27 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said: Really need a KC turnover... What a prescient genius!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Kelce you flog! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: Ha kinda true...that Brisset fumble was critical a few weeks ago. But get your point. Kc seems to get a lot of fortuitous bounces, Cincy just needs 1 stop coming up Whoop there it is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let's go! Don't screw it up this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17islongenough Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 LFG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let’s GO Bengals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 ha Ha HA fumblerooskie Kelce atta boy. They better not overturn this Yay! he coughed it UP Yes he did! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EffKCChiefs Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Let's go Cinci!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Romo is beginning to become insufferable. I think I'd rather listen to Collinsworth at this point 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, HappyDays said: No, I've explained how even within the bot's own logic it is not a given that going for it is the right choice. What the bot actually tells us is the individual win percentage of 4 different outcomes - going for it and 1) converting or 2) failing, or kicking a FG and 3) converting or 4) failing. Everybody agrees that the FG there is basically a gimme. So using the bot's logic you're actually deciding on whether you want to accept a win probability of 65% for free, or risk ending up with a 59% win probability to try and get a 74% win probability. It is a totally valid belief that accepting the free points is making more sense than taking the risk. Whatever historical records show you don't actually know the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 attempt in this specific moment against this specific defense. You do know that the FG try is almost 100% guaranteed. I'm not going to argue with you, you are free to believe what you wish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 9 Isles Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Hahaha FU Kelce 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocCityRoller Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 TURNOVER!!! Let's see the refs.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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