Von Miller knee injury (update - ACL intact, awaiting diagnosis on lateral meniscus)

[Beck Water]

52 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Bills currently 96% to make the playoffs

 

That's wonderful to read, but is that calculated by the same people who make up "the spread" for betting purposes?  You know, the thing the Bills have been failing to beat?

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

That's wonderful to read, but is that calculated by the same people who make up "the spread" for betting purposes?  You know, the thing the Bills have been failing to beat?

I got it off 538 but the books have it similarly 

 

And fyi Bills are 5-6 ATS 

 

for reference the Chiefs, the only AFC team w higher playoff % than the Bills, are 4-6-1 ATS

[The Wiz]

18 hours ago, KHAN said:

Watching other people play video games is a thing these days.

 

That concept is unfathomable to me.

 

I love watching Von Miller play football. Tiger Woods 2023, not so much.

For myself, I find it as a good was of getting a review of a game from someone other than the big names (IGN, gamefaqs, PCWorld, etc) before I decide if it's something I want to spend my money on.  

 

But yea I'm not watching someone play tiger woods 😆.

[Punching Bag]

On 11/26/2022 at 7:19 AM, Solomon Grundy said:

Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips and Daquan Jones are what was missing the most for Jerry Hughes. If you go back and watch Hughes last couple of seasons here, he was applying pressure off the edge. Problem was the opposing QB was escaping through the middle of the line. IMO, Hughes would be a major upgrade over Epenesa for the playoff push. IMO, the Bills made bad decisions letting Klein and Hughes leave this season. Luckily they were able to get Klein back. 

 

Bills stated they wanted to but could not afford to keep Klein and I would guess Klein was not interested in a veteran minimum contract at that time,  After being signing with Ravens ($1.2M with cap hit of $397,776), cut, signing on a PS, etc he was more than willing to come back to Buffalo at what they would offer now.  If he had a good agent he would still getting amount guaranteed being a veteran.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/aj-klein-12429/

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-how-much-will-aj-klein-earn-chicago-bears

Quote

AJ Klein joined the Baltimore Ravens with a one-year, $1,120,000 deal that included an average annual salary of $1,120,000. The linebacker signed a contract that ensured his base salary of $1,120,000 and a cap hit of $497,220 this season.

 

[What a Tuel]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You lost me right there.   I think it's safe to say this isn't a topic where we'll be able to have a productive discussion, so agree to disagree.

 

You are speculating the Bills will lose more than 3 of the next 6 which is a 66%+ lose rate that puts us at 10-7.

 

I am speculating the Bills will win at the same rate they've won all year at 72% win rate. That puts us at 12-5.

 

They could dip below 72% and drop 2 (66%) or 3 (50%) of remaining games but that is not likely.

 

The problem I have with the pessimistic line of thinking is that we think these teams will suddenly do better than they have:

Patriots 54% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

Chargers with 54% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

Jets with a 63% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

Dolphins with a 72% win rate will suddenly become 83% win rate

Bengals with a 63% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

 

So you have everyone pegged to do better or equal to what they have been all season but the Bills you have doing worse. Its defeatist pessimism.

Edited November 28, 2022 by What a Tuel

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

You are speculating the Bills will lose more than 3 of the next 6 which is a 66%+ lose rate that puts us at 10-7.

 

I am speculating the Bills will win at the same rate they've won all year at 72% win rate. That puts us at 12-5.

 

They could dip below 72% and drop 2 (66%) or 3 (50%) of remaining games but that is not likely.

 

The problem I have with the pessimistic line of thinking is that we think these teams will suddenly do better than they have:

Patriots 54% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

Chargers with 54% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

Jets with a 63% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

Dolphins with a 72% win rate will suddenly become 83% win rate

Bengals with a 63% win rate will suddenly become 66% win rate

 

So you have everyone pegged to do better or equal to what they have been all season but the Bills you have doing worse. Its defeatist pessimism.

 

I've already said that I don't think we can productively discuss this.  It's as though we speak different languages.  "It's defeatist pessimism" is an example. 

 

It's not "defeatist pessimism", it's not a personal expectation or belief, it's not personal at all.  You want to make it very personal and emotional.  It's understandable - we fans can get very testy at people who diss our beloved team, and of course, based on 1-2 posts one can't always tell trollish defeatism from raising a valid point.

 

It's just a different way of looking at probabilities (and a relatively crude way, actually, for both of us).  You see a "win rate" as a number.  I see a "win rate" as a range of outcomes.   All those teams don't have to change "win rates", they all have a range of outcomes and it just has to happen that 3 of those ranges fall higher than the Bills.

Maybe this will help: you know those ads for financial services companies?  The ones where at the bottom they hurry through the phrase "past results do not guarantee future performance"?  Obviously neither the active fund manager, the company they work for, nor the prospective clients want to believe it, but it's still true. 

 

You'd like to use the Bills (and other teams) past performance to predict future outcomes, and sometimes that's reasonably valid.  But if things change - a team gets a key player back or has the "light bulb" switch on for a key player or two, another team (like the Bills) lose a key player or two to injury (such as Von Miller and Dawkins), then past results truly may no longer apply.  And this doesn't have to happen for 6 teams, it only has to happen for 3.
 

Maybe we can find some common ground.  How about this:  The Bills can still control their own destiny in the playoff race and in the division.  If they take care of business and can truly handle a "next man up" philosophy and adapt to the players they have, they will make the playoffs.  If they stubbornly refuse to adjust, or if they start to feel entitled or though playoffs "are inevitable", they may face a surprise.

 

 

[Gugny]

I remember when this thread was about Von Miller's knee.

[Motorin']

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

I had a 97% chance to win a fantasy matchup tonight-  then I went against Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson.  Lost by 3.

 

we will most likely make the playoffs.  I don’t think it would take much to really screw us up.  Say dawkins has a high ankle sprain and he’s out the next 3 games- Rousseau misses the next 2- von is out for the next 3- No Von, Dawkins and Rousseau we could conceivably lose the next 3 games and be 0-5 in the division.  Unlikely….. but I wouldn’t be shocked. All 3 teams are solid.  

 

Just our of curiosity, did you spend all of your energy worrying about the combination of ways you could lose your match? (I'm doubting you did.)

 

For me, I don't see any value that the Concern Queens of the board have in ruminating on what could go wrong, and their demand that everyone accept their worst fears will come true. 

 

I do see value in talking about the ways our team can improve, and looking at what went wrong in the loses and what the solutions to them are. 

 

It truly is an any given Sunday league. The Bills could lose any game left on the calendar. They could lose all games left on the calendar. 

 

I just don't see the value in spending energy worrying about losing. Who does that help? 

 

True story, when the Ravens came to town in Lamar's MVP year, it was a close game. We had a chance to pull it out at the end of the game. On the whole, the home crowd was pretty good. But there was this one guy sitting behind me that would screetch "Nooooo!!!!!" everytime Josh cocked his arm to throw. Like this dude was living in terror that Josh was going to get picked every time he threw the ball. 

 

I think about that guy when I read all these screaming banshees demanding everyone else accept that their worst fears will come true. 

 

Worst part of the experience in this board, imo. 

 

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Just our of curiosity, did you spend all of your energy worrying about the combination of ways you could lose your match? (I'm doubting you did.)

 

For me, I don't see any value that the Concern Queens of the board have in ruminating on what could go wrong, and their demand that everyone accept their worst fears will come true. 

 

I do see value in talking about the ways our team can improve, and looking at what went wrong in the loses and what the solutions to them are. 

 

It truly is an any given Sunday league. The Bills could lose any game left on the calendar. They could lose all games left on the calendar. 

 

I just don't see the value in spending energy worrying about losing. Who does that help? 

 

True story, when the Ravens came to town in Lamar's MVP year, it was a close game. We had a chance to pull it out at the end of the game. On the whole, the home crowd was pretty good. But there was this one guy sitting behind me that would screetch "Nooooo!!!!!" everytime Josh cocked his arm to throw. Like this dude was living in terror that Josh was going to get picked every time he threw the ball. 

 

I think about that guy when I read all these screaming banshees demanding everyone else accept that their worst fears will come true. 

 

Worst part of the experience in this board, imo. 

 

Good post-  I agree.  I don’t spend time worrying about losing.  
 

When I read the board and I see posters stating that it’s laughable to think about missing the playoffs, I disagree and sparked a discussion…..on a message board.  
 

We have a tough schedule.  We have a lot of injuries.  We just lost an elite defensive player (which leaves us with one good DE, who has been hurt too).  Our QB doesn’t look nearly as good as he did prior to the Bye. 

We have concerns and missing the playoffs isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  
 

 

[Beck Water]

19 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Just our of curiosity, did you spend all of your energy worrying about the combination of ways you could lose your match? (I'm doubting you did.)

 

For me, I don't see any value that the Concern Queens of the board have in ruminating on what could go wrong, and their demand that everyone accept their worst fears will come true.

 

And not to pick on you specifically, but this is exactly the sort of reaction that I referenced above, In re: my (to me) not at all controversial comments that the Bills could realistically miss the playoffs.  To me, it's a cold hard statistical way of looking at the world as overlapping probability ranges and recognizing changed circumstances (Allen's injury, Dawkinsn injury, potentially losing Von Miller for the rest of the season) that can change expectationsbuilt from past performance.

 

To you, it apparently becomes very personal.  Anyone who thinks that way has a personality flaw - they are a "Concern Queen" and must be personally attacked for their POV as "spending all their energy worrying".  Moreover they are DEMANDING that EVERYONE accept their WORST FEARS, not merely explaining the way they see it, take it or leave it.

 

Dude, no one here is demanding a thing, not even a moment of time to try to understand another POV - you can always skate right on past it or even block the person expressing it and never see it at all.

 

But it would be nice to refrain from making it personal by casting it as a personality trait or flaw affecting someone's entire life.  You're welcome to disagree, of course.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Beck Water

[BuffaloBaumer]

Is it possible to keep this thread about Von Miller's Injury?

[Royale with Cheese]

24 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I remember when this thread was about Von Miller's knee.

 

I watched 2 episodes of Yellowstone this weekend.  I can't wait for #3!  
It's got me hooked.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I remember when this thread was about Von Miller's knee.

 

I mean, isn't it still, or at least the fallout from it? 

 

We have a guy who is "Our best defensive player will probably miss the rest of the regular season, but the Bills will continue on their previous W/L trajectory and we'll get him back for the playoffs" and most people smile and nod

 

We have a couple people who say wait a minute, no Von Miller, possibly no Dawkins for a couple games, Allen still working his way back from injury and not the same guy - No, making the playoffs is not a sure bet, the Bills better hammer down and adjust and take care of business.

 

And then we have the predictable Tar and Pitchfork reactions, "you're just a defeatist pessimist Concern Queen who probably spends your life worrying about everything" reactions.

 

I think I've summed it up pretty well, ✌️ out

Edited November 28, 2022 by Beck Water

[boyst]

38 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I remember when this thread was about Von Miller's knee.

There is a 74% chance it will be discussed again. 

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Is it possible to keep this thread about Von Miller's Injury?

 

I mean, what is there further to say about Von Miller's injury per se at this point, unless the chap who watched Von Miller streaming has any further input about what Miller said?

 

He has a lateral meniscal tear.  Some of them can be played through with a brace, some of them can't.  Apparently not clear which is which just from viewing the MRI, as it may have to do with the degree of bone bruising and stretching of ligaments.

 

The plan is to wait 2 weeks for swelling/bruising to diminish and then see if he can play through it or if he's out for the season. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Beck Water

[Motorin']

23 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

And not to pick on you specifically, but this is exactly the sort of reaction that I referenced above, In re: my (to me) not at all controversial comments that the Bills could realistically miss the playoffs.  To me, it's a cold hard statistical way of looking at the world as overlapping probability ranges and recognizing changed circumstances (Allen's injury, Dawkinsn injury, potentially losing Von Miller for the rest of the season) that can change expectationsbuilt from past performance.

 

To you, it apparently becomes very personal.  Anyone who thinks that way has a personality flaw - they are a "Concern Queen" and must be personally attacked for their POV as "spending all their energy worrying".  Moreover they are DEMANDING that EVERYONE accept their WORST FEARS, not merely explaining the way they see it, take it or leave it.

 

Dude, no one here is demanding a thing, not even a moment of time to try to understand another POV - you can always skate right on past it or even block the person expressing it and never see it at all.

 

But it would be nice to refrain from making it personal by casting it as a personality trait or flaw affecting someone's entire life.  You're welcome to disagree, of course.

 

You're a rational, level headed poster. Even when you disagree, you have reasons that are well thought out as to why. You are not one of the myriad of harpies to whom my post references. 

 

But I will take issue with something here. Yes, not only is being a Bills fan an emotional commitment, I contend that we actually have the ability to effect the game (to some degree). I have zero mathematical evidence to present. This is a purely instinctual and emotional belief. But I very much believe in home field advantage and the ability of the crowd to lift the team. And I take issue with the weak spirited contingent of Bills fans who do in fact project their fears about the worst possible outcome into the future as soon as the going gets tough... These are the contingent of people who were among the group of idiots who showed up at the airport to welcome the team back from the AFCG loss at KC and chanted "0-4! 0-4!" at the team at 4am... I digress... 

 

 

[Gugny]

18 minutes ago, boyst said:

There is a 74% chance it will be discussed again. 

 

Show your work.

[HappyDays]

Sorry to get off topic but here's news about Von Miller's injury.

[boyst]

36 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Show your work.

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[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Sorry to get off topic but here's news about Von Miller's injury.

 

Turns out this was about some Twitch thing he's doing in 2 weeks. Back to whatever this thread has become.