NFL Week #9 - 11/6/2022 - The Bills at the (NJ) Jets - Post Game thread

[BillsFan4]

I think part of the struggles so far with these division games is that Buffalo is now truly the top dog in the AFC East. Every team in the division used to be gunning for the patriots. Now they’re gunning for the Bills.

 

You're going to get every divisional team’s best effort. Players are going to be fired up to take on Buffalo. Coaches are going to want to prove they can beat Buffalo.

I think the Bills are still learning how to deal with that to some extent.

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You do know the end of the 2Q was a missed FG by the Bills

 

And the start of the 3Q was a long drive ending with a fumble in the red zone for the Jets?

 

Not to interrupt the narrative like the Jets had it all their way or something

If wrong, I stand corrected. Maybe I looked at the drive charts too quickly. 

[Greg S]

The Jets are now mocking the Bills.

 

 

[Beck Water]

51 minutes ago, Greg S said:

The Jets are now mocking the Bills.

 

 

 

Well deserved, wouldn't you say?  Buffalo Bills social media would certainly return the favor in a similar situation.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://theathletic.com/3770085/2022/11/07/seven-observations-bills-jets/
 

Joe Buscaglia perfectly describes the reasons they lost.

 

 

 

There’s a lot more detail in the article but I tried to post the gist of it.

 

Also thought it was interesting that the Jets loss came almost exactly 1 year after the jaguars loss (which was Nov. 7 2021).

Mid season lull is real.

 

Thanks.

 

Quote

4. The third WR spot is a legitimate liability

Although McDermott will likely look to the ground game as a fix, the uncomfortable truth for the Bills is that their receiver room isn’t anywhere close to the strength that it was this summer and earlier this season. Many will focus on the Gabe Davis missed catch opportunity on fourth down and lacking statistics, but he still provides a lot of value to the offense even without catching the ball — namely, freeing up Stefon Diggs for the most part. The true weakness is with their third receiver, specifically with how much it limits them when operating out of 11 personnel.

Between Isaiah McKenzie and rookie Khalil Shakir, the Bills continue to get next to nothing from that spot on their offense. McKenzie gave them a pedestrian two receptions for 12 yards, giving him only nine catches and 50 yards over his last four games combined. Against the Jets, McKenzie failed to get separation on his routes in the first half. And then in the second half, against a defense where the slot receiver can serve as a source of short yardage to get the opposition to drift down from their two-high look, he was unable to provide that too. The Bills also removed Shakir as snap competition, with the rookie taking only five snaps when McKenzie wasn’t on the field. This was as dominant McKenzie has been in snap share with his direct backup this season, only to fall woefully short in helping the offense through difficult times. It’s telling that even with McKenzie having a poor game last week, they still chose to keep Shakir off the field at a more significant rate than any game since Jamison Crowder suffered an injury.

 

One thing where I'm not sure I agree with Buscaglia, after watching a good bit of the Packers all-22, is on the 3rd WR spot being a liability.  It's not been productive, true.  (Let's roll TE into there too). 

 

But when I am watching all-22, I see multiple plays where Shakir and/or McKenzie, and Knox, appear open to me.   Just to make the case I'm not blowing smoke out my ears, I took the time to capture some all-22 clips in another thread which I believe show this - someone else may disagree.  (All 22 of Bills-Jets is not yet out to me on Gamepass, it may be out for professionals, I don't know)

 

But the role the #3 is usually filling are short to intermediate routes, and Josh appears determined to be aggressive and try to wait for a deeper route to come open, even taking risky throws into coverage while throws that would move the chains or have a shot at moving the chains with decent YAC (and Knox or Cook are supposed to be able to do that) appear to be there.

 

I think Buscaglia is legit confusing "lack of productivity" with "failure to do one's job".  Receivers can't produce if they aren't targeted.  At times, to me, Josh appears to behave as though it's his Destiny to throw to Diggs or Davis, regardless of who is covering them or how tightly they're covered/how risky the throw is.  I don't think that's anything personal against Shakir because on plays where he's been the deep option, Josh Allen has thrown deep to him when he's been well covered. 

 

I think it's possible that Josh got injured on a run play late in the 1st half or early in the 2nd half of the GB game, because there was a marked difference between Josh's 1st and 2nd half throws - off target, dirt balls etc.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Beck Water

[Bob in STL]

14 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I agree with this 100% and not just because I don't trust Phillips (which I admittedly do not), but I think the Bills coaches are so slavishly inflexible with their rotation that they're hurting themselves at critical moments. Today was a fine example when the Jets got the ball inside their own 5 with about 7:00 left and who comes trotting on the field but Jordan Phillips. 10 seconds after my wife told me to stop grumbling about it, the Jets were on the move.

The reason they run that rotation in the first place is so they can have everybody fresh at crunch time, but when crunch time comes around it's time to get your best players out there. Ed Oliver should have been out there to start that series right next to Settle or Jones, as opposed to Phillips who still spends way too much time trying to slip blocks instead of aggressively engaging OLinemen to stone opposing offenses like he should be. 

Somebody on that staff needs to sit him down and explain to him that if he continues to go out there and play for himself and hang his teammates out to dry, he's going to end up right back in Arizona or some other place that is looking for a glory hound. Guy's got a ton of talent but until he starts playing more like a fighter than a dancer, he's always going to be a liability at key moments.

Agree 100% and this was a big reason we did not re-sign him the first time.  He tends to freelance on his running assignments.  Sometimes he makes a big play but other times he is just out of position.  With only two LBs back there playing your line gap is critical to stopping the run.  

 

With all the rotation on the DL there is no reason we aren't playing our best 4 in crunch time.  

[st pete gogolak]

What sets me over the edge about a game like this is that after six games this season you could say a couple of things confidently about this team: (1) run defense is much improved and (2) our QB is front runner for MVP.  Questions about the offensive line?  Sure.  Lack of running game outside of Allen?  OK.  But what lets us down in the last 2 games (run D) and last 6 quarters (QB play) are the things that absolutely aren't supposed to happen.  I still don't get the run D.  It wasn't just the stats (1st or 2nd in YPG and YPA in the league) but they were passing the eyeball test.  Teams just weren't having any success running on them.  Last two games?  Poof.  It all goes away.  I'd be interested in any film study that could really break down teh difference between first six and last two games.  Josh?  Unless it's an injury, it's really inexplicable.  

[Bob in STL]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Intersting question that nobody has brought up...there were about 24 seconds left on the clock when the Davis play happened on 4th down incomplete...

 

With no TO left, would the Bills have been able to get everyone that far downfield in time to get set and snap the ball?

 

Talking about running 70 yards downfield and getting set to snap it. You'd think they would, but it would have been interesting to find out.

 

 

 

Between the Jets likely dogging it to get back and the Bills recent tendency to not manage the two-minute drill it would have been very tough.  

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

What sets me over the edge about a game like this is that after six games this season you could say a couple of things confidently about this team: (1) run defense is much improved and (2) our QB is front runner for MVP.  Questions about the offensive line?  Sure.  Lack of running game outside of Allen?  OK.  But what lets us down in the last 2 games (run D) and last 6 quarters (QB play) are the things that absolutely aren't supposed to happen.  I still don't get the run D.  It wasn't just the stats (1st or 2nd in YPG and YPA in the league) but they were passing the eyeball test.  Teams just weren't having any success running on them.  Last two games?  Poof.  It all goes away.  I'd be interested in any film study that could really break down teh difference between first six and last two games.  Josh?  Unless it's an injury, it's really inexplicable.  

 

Josh has always been a bit inconsistent. His play making ability makes him dangerous. We have to take the good with the bad. He isn't playing well and deserves the criticism. And when he plays out of his mind he also deserves the praise. 

It is what it is. He is a bigger, stronger, faster 2022 version of Brett Favre. It is just something we have to accept at this point. Josh Allen will be a rollercoaster. But dangnabbit he is our big beautiful rollercoaster, and one of the best overall players in the NFL. 

[Mango]

People keep talking about Josh having 6 bad quarters. The first half of the GB game was driven by 2 splash plays, a 53 and 26 yard completion to Diggs. Outside of those 2 plays we were 5/8, 34 yards with a 1 yard TD to Knox. 

I am not sure he had a great first half vs GB either. 

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, BananaB said:

Did anyone ever see the phantom holding replay on last drive? Oddly I think there was one against us on the last drive when we lost to the Phins too. 

 

You can see it here.  It was a BS call IMO.

 

 

6 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

He either is concussed or is shaving points. If you saw those picks in person, they almost looked intentional.

 

Or he just didnt see the field well while under pressure.  It happens to all QBs.  He made a bad decision, bad throw.  Doesnt mean either of the things you suggest.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Crowder isn't a differrence maker. There are tons of Crowders in the league. Bills need a Beasley type receiver. Right now, the Bills slot guys have been under used and have under preformed. Just has no reliable safety valve to go to on crucial 3rd down plays. Diggs is the only one but the Bills need more weapons. Thus, Allen locks onto Diggs and forces the ball into him. Mentioned with success but as you play tougher defenses this isn't sustainable. The Bills offense is out of sorts and becoming too predictable. Changes and adjustments need to be made swiftly. Can The core issues be fixed or modified for success? The core issues for me is the Oline and wide receivers. Can the Oline open up holes in the run game? Can the Bills and Allen make teams pay for blitzing Allen? Can they protect him? What wide receivers are going to step up? How long does Allen play like Shi???

 

While I agree the Bills need another receiver, enough of the Beasley talk.  Beasley lost a step.  Father time caught up to him.  He asked for his release here, the Bills accomodated. He spent a long time with no offers, begged Tom Brady for a shot, got one, then got released after two games of nothing, and retired.  Beasley is done.

 

This post isnt directed at you.  I know you are just saying Beasley "type" receiver here.  I'm just getting fed up with hearing his name lol.  

 

Yes the Bills need another difference maker at receiver.  People keep saying the difference between Mahomes is blah blah blah.  The difference is that his receivers bail him out on bad balls.  Ours dont even catch ones right in the hands or dropped in the bucket.  Thats the difference.  Kelce caught one yesterday that he had to extend completely backwards to grab because it was that far behind.  Their other TE jumped to his limit in height to grab one, bobbled it while coming down, and still caught it while being hit and tackled.  Our guys drops ones in the numbers unmolested.  I honestly dont even think Josh trust these guys anymore or something.  Its Diggs and pretty much no one.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

You can see it here.  It was a BS call IMO.

 

 

 

Or he just didnt see the field well while under pressure.  It happens to all QBs.  He made a bad decision, bad throw.  Doesnt mean either of the things you suggest.

 

I saw it live, in person and from above. Any pressure he felt was imaginary on that play. A throwaway was an EASY answer.

 

[Scott7975]

8 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I saw it live, in person and from above. Any pressure he felt was imaginary on that play. A throwaway was an EASY answer.

 

 

He isnt concussed or shaving points.  Making a bad decision or throw doesnt mean either of those things. I dont care what you saw live, in person and from above.  Its different on the field when you have guys flying around you 100 mph.

[Scott7975]

Good look at Davis other drop of the game

 

 

[Nitro]

20 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

The D is fine 

We gave up 20 points on the road with 2 terrible to's

 

We gave up 17 last week 

 

Our offense scored 20 points in the last 6 Quarters

 

They're the issue and it's getting concerning 

 

Defense is not fine.  Yes allowed only 20 points but played poor run defense.   Gashed again and that eats up the clock.  Bills only got 4 possessions in the second half.  That is on the defense.  Time of possession is an important factor.  That book now is keep it close by running the ball and force Allen into mistakes.  If the coaches fail to come up with solutions, the Bills are in trouble.

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, Nitro said:

Defense is not fine.  Yes allowed only 20 points but played poor run defense.   Gashed again and that eats up the clock.  Bills only got 4 possessions in the second half.  That is on the defense.  Time of possession is an important factor.  That book now is keep it close by running the ball and force Allen into mistakes.  If the coaches fail to come up with solutions, the Bills are in trouble.

I mean you just said it yourself.  Force Josh to make mistakes.

If Josh consistently makes mistakes we won't reach a SB regardless 

It has only been 2 games but since the Bye this O has looked brutal in 6/8 quarters

 

If they struggle next week I'm ringing the alarm bells but hoping this is just a mid season slump

 

I'll take 20 points all day for our defense against a team with a winning record 

 

I mean think about it. If our O can't put up over 20 in January, how many games do they win? 1 , maybe?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

D has to button up the run D as it has been exposed since the second half of the GB game. I think its more a problem with not adjusting the scheme and who is on the field at the right times. 

 

But be that as it may, holding an opponent to under 20 points should technically be more than adequate against a O led team like the Bills. If the O was able to sustain drives and end in scores, the opposing team is much more limited in its grind and pound options (basic complementary football).

 

This loss is clearly on Allen (esp the two brutal interceptions) and the O in general. His multiple INT games are bothering me. He should do a whole lot better in protecting the ball. 

I don’t think people realize how historically terrible terrel Bernard was in that jets game.  Jets didn’t really expose us imo…if Milano was in there the jets wouldn’t have hit double digits.  Offense still blew it though…josh could’ve bailed out that defense but he played badly 

[Scott7975]

A lot of people thought McD should have challenge the BS ref call on the clear Edmonds int. I seen this tweet today

 

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Scott7975

[UKBillFan]

13 hours ago, Nitro said:

Defense is not fine.  Yes allowed only 20 points but played poor run defense.   Gashed again and that eats up the clock.  Bills only got 4 possessions in the second half.  That is on the defense.  Time of possession is an important factor.  That book now is keep it close by running the ball and force Allen into mistakes.  If the coaches fail to come up with solutions, the Bills are in trouble.

IIRC, with the first touchdown drive, the defense got off the field and then Special Teams messed the bed.

For the second touchdown Josh gave their offense great field position.

Arguably, the defense were solely responsible for just six points on Sunday. They even stopped a well positioned drove when we kicked off out of bounds. The final drive was horrific but they were gassed.

And TOP isn’t everything - look at us at the Fins. It’s being sensible with the ball when we had it and we weren’t.

I’m not saying that there are not issues with the defense as there clearly is. But would I say the defeat was down to them on Sunday? Maybe shockingly, no.