2-point Conversion Chances - Strategy

[mike22nc]

From a strategy and game theory perspective, would anyone disagree that this version of the Buffalo Bills should be going for 2 every time they score a touchdown (other than obvious game situations that would call for the extra point)? 
 

With the versatility of Allen and all the weapons at his disposal, I wouldn’t be surprised if our long-term 2-pt success rate was higher than 60%.

 

I’ve been happier recently with McDermott’s inclination to be more aggressive with going for it on 4th down, but I still think there are more opportunities to take advantage of the obvious strengths that this team has.

 

The only possible argument I could accept against this proposal is that it is one more play that could lead to injury, especially if we’re often using Josh as a runner around the goal line. However, I do think it’s an interesting question. The only team I can recall going this route is the Steelers with Big Ben for a while there.

[GoBills808]

They're weirdly bad at short yardage situations

[strive_for_five_guy]

If your odds of making the 2-pointer are greater than half your odds of making the extra point, then the excepted value is greater to go for the 2-pointer.  Hence, for an offense really good at goal to go from the 3, going for the 2-pointer may make more than kicking the extra point.  So your logic does make sense, with the caveat of certain game situations that you noted.

[mike22nc]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

They're weirdly bad at short yardage situations

I don’t know what the stats have been, but with them not being great in short yardage they still have been very good once they get within the 5.

[mushypeaches]

I'm good with our team not chasing points when we have a Top 5 offense and Top 5 defense

 

If this was the Jauron years and we're trying to win games 17-16, then I might be a bigger advocate of going for 2 more often

 

***my last statement was theoretical only... we didn't score TD's those years

[mike22nc]

Just now, mushypeaches said:

I'm good with our team not chasing points when we have a Top 5 offense and Top 5 defense

 

If this was the Jauron years and we're trying to win games 17-16, then I might be a bigger advocate of going for 2 more often

 

***my last statement was theoretical only... we didn't score TD's those years

It’s not about chasing points, it’s about maximizing expected points. The more times you score, the more we would expect this to positively effect the outcome as long as we are more likely to be successful than not.

[BigDingus]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

They're weirdly bad at short yardage situations

 

Yeah, it's one of their more obvious weaknesses. 

 

Whether it be 4th & 1 or 3rd & 2, it seems they struggle when going for a short pickup of any kind. Those are also the plays opposing defenses best prepare for an Allen scramble too, so even that route is difficult.

[BigDingus]

When it comes to going for 2, I think it's just unnecessary risk that doesn't offer proportional reward.

 

The Bills already opt to forego punting & go for it on 4th quite a bit, but in that scenario the reward is an extended drive leading to 3-6 points. Forgoing the PAT in favor of the 2 point conversion only earns us a max of just 1 additional point.

 

I personally don't feel like it offers enough of an advantage unless they start showing they can consistently convert on short yardage situations.

[mike22nc]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

When it comes to going for 2, I think it's just unnecessary risk that doesn't offer proportional reward.

 

The Bills already opt to forego punting & go for it on 4th quite a bit, but in that scenario the reward is an extended drive leading to 3-6 points. Forgoing the PAT in favor of the 2 point conversion only earns us a max of just 1 additional point.

 

I personally don't feel like it offers enough of an advantage unless they start showing they can consistently convert on short yardage situations.

Just to be clear, your expectation is that the Bills would be successful on less than 50% of 2-pt conversion attempts?

Edited September 24, 2022 by mike22nc

[Rochesterfan]

4 hours ago, mike22nc said:

Just to be clear, your expectation is that the Bills would be successful on less than 50% of 2-pt conversion attempts?

 

My expectations since everything we have seen is they would struggle against teams like the Titans, Rams, Ravens, etc - teams with good DL - to hit 50 %.  They struggle in tight situations like that to score and those plays often expose Josh to bigger hits.

 

My preference would be keep doing what they are doing and do not chase points for what at the end of the year equates to about +1 points per game.  
 

Math works out to what about 35-40 TDs when the game is in range - about 50% success - 18 - 20 points for the season - 1 point per game - just not enough to make it worth while for the added risk.

 

JMO

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, BigDingus said:

When it comes to going for 2, I think it's just unnecessary risk that doesn't offer proportional reward.

 

The Bills already opt to forego punting & go for it on 4th quite a bit, but in that scenario the reward is an extended drive leading to 3-6 points. Forgoing the PAT in favor of the 2 point conversion only earns us a max of just 1 additional point.

 

I personally don't feel like it offers enough of an advantage unless they start showing they can consistently convert on short yardage situations.

The OP's model (which admittedly is not based in reality but it just a guess) says that we would score 2 points 60 % of the time.

 

If that were the case, long term, we would get MORE points going for 2 than 1.  

 

Also, there is no "risk" in that situation and there most certainly IS a reward--getting more points (with a 60% success rate).  

 

To the OP:  I would LOVE for us to aggressively go for 2 points, every time we score.

 

The question is what would our conversion rate really be in reality.

 

Below are REAL numbers taken across all teams in the NFL, for nearly 1,000 plays.

 

The thing is, the success rate of the BILLS might very well be ahead of the league average.

 

I would sweep josh with the ball  and give him a few receiver options in the end zone.

 

If the pass is there, throw. If he can just run it in, run it in.

 

Josh is nearly unstoppable on that play.

 

Asking McDermott to  do this is like asking your dog to sing.  Probably won't happen. 

 

Play/ Success Rate / Attempts

Pass/ 43.4%    /           739

Run/    61.7%   /           258

Overall/  48.2%  /         997

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Nextmanup

[Beast]

The Bills are not a very good short yardage team for some reason.

 

I'd kick until 2 is needed.

[Tanoros]

6 hours ago, mike22nc said:

From a strategy and game theory perspective, would anyone disagree that this version of the Buffalo Bills should be going for 2 every time they score a touchdown (other than obvious game situations that would call for the extra point)? 
 

With the versatility of Allen and all the weapons at his disposal, I wouldn’t be surprised if our long-term 2-pt success rate was higher than 60%.

 

I’ve been happier recently with McDermott’s inclination to be more aggressive with going for it on 4th down, but I still think there are more opportunities to take advantage of the obvious strengths that this team has.

 

The only possible argument I could accept against this proposal is that it is one more play that could lead to injury, especially if we’re often using Josh as a runner around the goal line. However, I do think it’s an interesting question. The only team I can recall going this route is the Steelers with Big Ben for a while there.

The one thing to consider, doing this leads to tipping our hands more in regards to short yardage redzone work and over time may lead to us having a harder time scoring td’s while in close. 

[Rochesterfan]

56 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

 

 

Also, there is no "risk" in that situation and there most certainly IS a reward--getting more points (with a 60% success rate).  

 

 

 

I would sweep josh with the ball  and give him a few receiver options in the end zone.

 

 

 

 

I have 2 issues Bolded above.

 

There is risk involved - especially as short yardage and goal line plays tend to lead to potentially bigger hits and more frequent contact.

 

Second we are trying to run Josh less and now people want to go for 2 and run Josh more in these situations.

 

Take the one point and blow people out - save the 2 points for when you need it.

 

 

[TBBills]

We aren't going to have 2 guys that are supposed to kick the ball have nothing to do.

[Ya Digg?]

If the Bills always went for 2, then that opens up a roster spot-no need to have Martin on the team at all since he wouldn’t even be holding!!! Although I do miss all of the absurd holding threads….

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Is there any statistics available that would support going for 2, would be worth the risk instead of setting for 7? 
 

Aside from the obvious desire to have 8 instead of 7, is there any proof that a team that goes up 8-0 in the first quarter is any more likely to win? How about 16-7? And conversely, how about if they miss? Might be interested to see if there is any actual data that would argue an advantage worth the risk instead of the obvious 

[BuffBillsForLife]

The Bills must be the only team in league history that feels like it's more likely to convert 3rd and 10 than 3rd and 1.

 

Just kick the PAT until we've shown we can pick up short yardage consistently.

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

The OP's model (which admittedly is not based in reality but it just a guess) says that we would score 2 points 60 % of the time.

 

If that were the case, long term, we would get MORE points going for 2 than 1.  

 

Also, there is no "risk" in that situation and there most certainly IS a reward--getting more points (with a 60% success rate).  

 

To the OP:  I would LOVE for us to aggressively go for 2 points, every time we score.

 

The question is what would our conversion rate really be in reality.

 

Below are REAL numbers taken across all teams in the NFL, for nearly 1,000 plays.

 

The thing is, the success rate of the BILLS might very well be ahead of the league average.

 

I would sweep josh with the ball  and give him a few receiver options in the end zone.

 

If the pass is there, throw. If he can just run it in, run it in.

 

Josh is nearly unstoppable on that play.

 

Asking McDermott to  do this is like asking your dog to sing.  Probably won't happen. 

 

Play/ Success Rate / Attempts

Pass/ 43.4%    /           739

Run/    61.7%   /           258

Overall/  48.2%  /         997

 

 

I don't think Josh, or the Bills in general, are unstoppable on short yardage plays... and it's even harder that close to the endzone as it's more difficult to find space. If the Bills struggle to convert 3rd/4th & short when there's a far more space behind them, how will it become easier when the entire defense is packed into one crammed area?

 

Either way, league average is 49%, so even if the Bills hit that average, they'd break even had they just gone for the PAT. It's just not a meaningful gamble unless you somehow develop a strong power running game to at least threaten the opposing defenses with. At this point, every team knows Josh is a good runner, so they prepare specifically to address that.

 

That's why on those short yardage situations, Josh rarely has an opening, as every team is waiting for exactly that (and why you get weird sequences like against the Rams where he tries to scramble, & defenders are immediately in his face, resulting in him trying to chuck up a pass that just got batted down).

[pennstate10]

5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The OP's model (which admittedly is not based in reality but it just a guess) says that we would score 2 points 60 % of the time.

 

If that were the case, long term, we would get MORE points going for 2 than 1.  

 

Also, there is no "risk" in that situation and there most certainly IS a reward--getting more points (with a 60% success rate).  

 

To the OP:  I would LOVE for us to aggressively go for 2 points, every time we score.

 

The question is what would our conversion rate really be in reality.

 

Below are REAL numbers taken across all teams in the NFL, for nearly 1,000 plays.

 

The thing is, the success rate of the BILLS might very well be ahead of the league average.

 

I would sweep josh with the ball  and give him a few receiver options in the end zone.

 

If the pass is there, throw. If he can just run it in, run it in.

 

Josh is nearly unstoppable on that play.

 

Asking McDermott to  do this is like asking your dog to sing.  Probably won't happen. 

 

Play/ Success Rate / Attempts

Pass/ 43.4%    /           739

Run/    61.7%   /           258

Overall/  48.2%  /         997

 

Hmm…

You want to subject our franchise QB to extra hits for a possible gain of 0.6 pts per game?